Peso Uruguayo Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

From the data provided, it appears that the exchange rate has generally been decreasing over the specified period. The trend started at 0.03573 and ended at 0.03561, indicating a slight drop overall. Although there were minor fluctuations in between, they don't seem to change the overall downward trend.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it is difficult to identify clear patterns from the data provided. The fluctuations in the exchange rate are relatively minor and do not seem to follow a specifically repeatable pattern throughout the dataset's timeline. Therefore, we can't establish a clear seasonality or recurring pattern from this data.

3. Outliers in the dataset

Outliers are data points that diverge significantly from the overall pattern of data. In this dataset, no apparent outliers can be observed. All exchange rates mentioned lie within a similar range and do not show abrupt or excessive deviations from the surrounding data points, meaning no apparent outliers are present in this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The given dataset does not appear to show any strong upward or downward trend. The exchange rate throughout the period mostly oscillates in a small range, around 0.03565 and 0.03578. This suggests that the exchange rate has largely remained stable over the time period covered in the data.

Seasonality of Exchange Rates

Seasonality refers to periodic and predictable changes in a time series which occur at regular intervals due to seasonal factors. These might include the time of day, week, month, or seasons of the year. With the data provided, it is challenging to decipher any clear seasonal trend. There are frequent oscillations between higher and lower exchange rates, but these do not appear to occur at a consistent interval, suggesting no obvious seasonality.

Identifying Outliers

Outliers are observations that differ significantly from the others. Given the range of values, there doesn't appear to be any major outliers in the dataset. All the values range around the 0.03565 and 0.03578 marks with none of them significantly deviating from this range.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the dataset shows a largely stable exchange rate over time, with occasional fluctuations within a small range but no prominent seasonal patterns. It also does not contain any apparent outliers. However, complex statistical analysis may be required to get a more accurate understanding and to uncover more subtle trends or patterns from this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Overview

Starting from the beginning of the dataset, the exchange rate has shown minor fluctuations without a clear increasing or decreasing trend. It started at roughly 0.03559 at the beginning and ended at roughly 0.03565. We observe a limited overall increase in the exchange rate over the given period.

Recurring Patterns and Seasonality

Due to the data's narrow range and slight increments, it is challenging to identify a clear recurring pattern or seasonal trend. The fluctuations don't appear to follow a consistent daily or hourly pattern. However, it is crucial to collect further data over a more extended time scale to identify any possible weekly, monthly, or yearly seasonality.

Outliers or Unusual Observations

The dataset lacks significant outliers or unusual observations in the exchange rate. The exchange rate has remained relatively stable, operating within a tight margin. This observation indicates the currency's stability within the time frame captured by the current dataset.

Though no explicit outliers were detected, there are points in the data where the rate drops to 0.0355 and then rises back to its standard pattern. Examples of these occasions can be seen on 2024-04-23 from 9:05:02 to around 14:10:03 and then from 19:55:03 for nearly 30 minutes. These deviations, while not exceptionally significant, are worth noting.

Non-Market Influences

As explicitly stated, this analysis does not consider external influencing factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Therefore, any impacts, trends, or anomalies resulting from these variables are not reflected in this analysis.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates.

Upon analyzing the provided time series data for the period it covers, it is observable that the exchange rate starts at 0.03578 and ends at 0.03559. This suggests a small decrease in the exchange rate over this period.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates.

The data provides a snapshot every five minutes, offering a detailed insight into the exchange rate behavior. However, it does not indicate a clear pattern or seasonality in these short intervals. The exchange rate seems to generally be fluctuating in a relatively tight range. Any trends or patterns might be more visible if the data were aggregated on a daily or weekly level.

Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

Looking at the raw data, no significant outliers or unusual values are immediately apparent. All values fall within a very narrow range and there are no sudden or extreme fluctuations that would suggest an outlier. The biggest change observed is around the timestamp "2024-04-22 06:25:02" when the exchange rate dropped from 0.03576 to 0.03559. While still a relatively small change, this is the most significant single-step change noted in the dataset.

Reflection and conclusion.

This analysis was based purely on the raw data provided, and did not take into consideration any external market factors or events that might have an influence on exchange rate trends. Based on this analysis, the exchange rate over the examined period could be described as showing a small decline, with the data showing no clear patterns or seasonality, and few instances of significant change in the exchange rate.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

From the data provided on the UYU exchange rates over time, it can be observed that the trend seems to exhibit a slightly upward trend. This means that generally, the value of the UYU has increased over the given time period, albeit by a small margin. The data starts on 2024-03-22 when the exchange rate stood at 0.03521, and ends on 2024-04-19, where the rate has increased to 0.03579. This shows an increase in value of the UYU over this given period.

Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

While analyzing time-series data like this, recognizing patterns and potential seasonality can be immense value. However, it's important to note that detecting seasonality in just a month's worth of data can be challenging and may not provide the most accurate results. Furthermore, with the data provided, it is difficult to identify any significant or consistent patterns that would suggest a strong seasonality in the exchange rates.

Noting Outliers and Significant Variations

Upon analysis, a few potential outliers or significant variations can be identified in the dataset. For example, the exchange rates had a significant drop at 2024-04-03 08:00:02 when it fell down to 0.03585 from 0.03622. Another noticeable variation is at 2024-04-11 22:00:02 where the rate dropped to 0.03486. These instances may have been influenced by unforeseen financial events or market fluctuations, however, without external context or additional information, it's difficult to definitively identify the causes. Understanding the reasons for such outliers could provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the given data series, it appears that the exchange rates of the UYU have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range, remaining between 0.03538 and 0.03585 over the period shown. There isn't any defined trend of general increase or decrease in the exchange rate throughout the timeline. Slight fluctuations are noticed, but the exchange rate seems substantially stable across the data.

Seasonality in the Exchange Rates

Due to the short period covered in the data, it is challenging to identify definite seasonal or daily patterns. However, it appears that there may be a slight decrease in the exchange rate around the 7th hour of each day, and a potential bounce back around the 10th or 16th hour - this could indicate a possible daily cycle, but further scrutiny is required for a sound conclusion.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Referring to this dataset, from 2024-04-15 to 2024-04-19, most of the exchange rates are positioned closely and floating around 0.03550. However, there are a few noticeable outliers - instances where the rate jumps or dips significantly relative to the majority. Specifically, this occurs at around 2024-04-19 07:00:03, where the UYU exchange rate hit a peak of 0.03585. This rate is significantly higher than the other values in the data series and it eventually decreased over the next few hours after the surge.

It's important to remember that the rate fluctuates due to a variety of reasons, including but not limited to economic events, geopolitical instability, or simply the large number of transactions being processed at a particular time. However, as per the instructions, we did not factor in specific events, market hours, or the release of financial news into this analysis.

Additionally, it deserves mentioning that further and deeper analysis with more data and informed by knowledge of relevant external factors would yield more accurate and robust insights.

In Conclusion

The exchange rate of UYU recorded in the given data is relatively stable with slight fluctuations. Potential cyclical pattern during daily trading hours is observed though further scrutiny is required for confirmation. A few outliers exist where the rate is significantly higher than the majority, like the one occurred on 2024-04-19 07:00:03.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The given dataset on exchange rates shows a gradual fluctuation throughout, with slight peaks and valleys. To pinpoint the overall trend of the data:

• The initial exchange rate on 19th April 2024 starts at 0.03546.
• The rate appears to remain relatively stable through 01:10:02, hovering around the 0.0354 - 0.0355 margin.
• However, a slight decrease in the exchange rate can be noted starting at 01:45:02, which bottoms out at 0.03539 at around 02:15:02.
• This is followed by a minor increase peaking at 0.03542 at about 03:30:02 before stabilizing yoyo-ing between 0.03540 and 0.03542 for a significant period.
• A significant increase is observed at 06:25:02, peaking at 0.03586. This high rate remains stable for the next few observations.
• Despite this rise, the trend appears to return to normalcy, maintaining around the 0.0358 mark for the rest of the dataset.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

While it's challenging to distinguish specific seasonality or recurring patterns within this dataset without extensive data covering multiple years, one can notice minor periodic fluctuations in the exchange rate. However, these upticks and downticks lack a definitive pattern throughout the observed duration and are too uncertain to be deemed a 'seasonality' effect.

3. Noting Outliers

From the given data, the most noticeable and prominent outlier is the sudden rise in the exchange rate at the timestamp of 06:25:02, where it jumps to 0.03586 - a relatively high value compared to the dataset. This rate bucks the overall trend and stays consistent for a while before gradually toning down back to the average value for the rest of the dataset.