Australian Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    Upon analyzing the data, it can be observed that the overall trend of the exchange rate appears to be decreasing. This is evident as the exchange rate starts at 0.88461 and ends at 0.88341, showing a subtle decline over the time period. However, it is important to note that this decrease is not sharp or abrupt but rather a slow and gradual decline. The fluctuation within this broad trend, with periods of both rising and falling values, suggest that there might be other factors (e.g., daily trading activities) influencing the exchange rate at different points in time.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    There does not appear to be a clear seasonal pattern in the exchange rate based solely on this data. The rate fluctuates slightly up and down throughout the given time period. While there are periods where the rate increases and periods where it decreases, these do not seem to occur at regular, predictable intervals. Instead, the rate changes appear to be more sporadic and may be influenced by a number of different factors. Without more comprehensive data, it's difficult to determine a definitive seasonal pattern.

    3. Noting Outliers

    While conducting this analysis, there were no major outliers or significant deviations from the observed trend. However, there are subtle fluctuations within the trend, which could be considered as mini peaks and troughs. These can be seen when the exchange rate rises slightly before dropping back down. The rate seems to hover around the 0.883 to 0.884 mark over the full range of data provided. Inconsistencies or sudden peaks/troughs that might be considered outliers based on the prevailing trend were not prominent.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Analysis Overview

    After examining the given time-series dataset, it's clear it represents the changes in the Australian Dollar (AUD) exchange rate recorded at different timestamps. The comprehensive analysis provided herein targets to fulfill three main objectives:

    • Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates.
    • Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate changes.
    • Spotting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the expected value based on the trend or seasonality.

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Observing the provided data, it reflects that the AUD exchange rates present patterns of minute fluctuations rather than a steady increasing or decreasing trend over this period. Initial readings started at 0.88276, reaching a maximum of 0.88485, and finally closing at 0.88475. It can be inferred that the exchange rate remains relatively stable with slight instabilities over time.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The given time-series data, however, does not cover a long enough period to infer any indisputable monthly or annual seasonality in exchange rate fluctuations. Furthermore, it does not have a noticeable diurnal pattern. The detailed dataset covering an extended period could help identify clearer seasonal effects.

    Outliers Identified

    Scanning through the data, there doesn’t appear to be any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate fluctuates vastly from the trendline, which indicates largely stable transactions over this period. There are fluctuations but they are very minimal and generally tend to follow the expected trend.

    Please note that an even more accurate analysis could be performed with more comprehensive data, spanning multiple time periods, including regional holidays or notable events, or applying sophisticated modeling techniques.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    If we look at the provided dataset, it's clear that the overall trend over the period shown indicates a gradual decrease in the exchange rates. This is evident as the rates go from 0.8857 early on (26th Feb 2024, 00:00:02) to around 0.88361 towards the end of the series (26th Feb 2024, 23:55:02). Hence, the exchange rate has decreased slightly throughout the timeframe considered. It is a mild downward trend.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it is a bit harder to discern clear patterns given the granular level of the data and lack of a longer time series dataset which could allow for weekly, monthly, or yearly patterns identification. However, within the day, it seems the exchange rate oscillates with slight rises and falls as we navigate through different timestamps. There are minor ups and downs but no clear recurring pattern can be accurately identified from the given one-day data segment.

    Noting any Outliers

    Regarding the outliers, the data seems smoothly varying overall. A significant dip in exchange can be seen at 08:20:03 where it goes as low as 0.88419 and further lowers down to 0.88352 at 09:05:03 which is somewhat significantly below the general trend around those time stamps and stands out as an outlier. Similarly, towards the last timestamps, there is a noticeable jump to 0.88376 at 23:10:02. However, without additional context or data, it's challenging to pinpoint definitively these as outliers.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    General Analysis

    Looking at the dataset, we can observe some trends. The general trend appears to fluctuate, and there's no clear indication of a consistent increase or decrease over the entire period. We can see certain periods where the exchange rate increases, and others where it decreases. However, it is important to note that the rate consistently remained within a relatively narrow range, suggesting overall stability despite the fluctuations.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    As for the seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, it may not be suitable to comment without clear patterns found in this dataset. It also requires more data to analyze if there are weekly or monthly patterns. Also, considering the nature of forex markets which operate 24/7, the concept of seasonality might not be as strong as in other financial markets.

    Outliers and Significant Observations

    Outliers, or instances where the exchange rate varies significantly from expected trends, aren't evident in the dataset. This might be due to the fact that the data appears to be high-frequency intra-day data, which usually doesn't demonstrate drastic changes within a short timeframe. Nonetheless, this statement might need further statistical analysis for confirmation.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, this dataset shows the AUD exchange rate dynamics within certain days from late January to mid-February 2024. The overall trend can be considered as relatively stable within the period. Noteworthy seasonality and significant outliers aren't identified based on the dataset. However, increased granularity and volume of data would likely offer more actionable insights, especially for performing tasks like forecasting, trend identification, and volatility analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    First, let's start with the dataset provided. The time-series data provided gives exchange rates at regular and specific intervals, allowing us to do some form of an analysis. Right away, it's important to note that the data provided does not seem to have any missing timestamps or exchange rates, hence it's a complete dataset for the period specified.

    Understanding the Trend of Exchange Rates

    Without proper visualization, obtaining an actual trend might be challenging. However, basic interpretation from the data points to a generally increasing trend in the exchange rates. For instance, the rate starts at around 0.88194 and ends at around 0.88622. During the period, the exchange rate seems to have increased, albeit slightly. Thus, this indicates a general upward trend in the value of the AUD during the dataset's period.

    Identifying Seasonality in the Changes of Exchange Rates

    Identifying the seasonality of exchange rates typically requires a larger dataset spanning at least a year. That would allow identification of repeated patterns during specific seasons or months. From the given timeframe of data, which is around a few days, making conclusions about recurring patterns of change during the day might not be very accurate.

    Generally, exchange rates fluctuate depending on the market opening and closing, geopolitical news, and different economic activities. From the data given, it is not easy to define a specific pattern of change recurrently. The data does not show a stable cycle that would indicate a pattern in the exchange rates.

    Identifying Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Outliers are significantly different values from the rest. They can be way higher or lower than the normal trend. From the data provided, there isn't a conspicuously high or low rate that deviates significantly from the rest. Therefore, it can be concluded that there are no significant outliers in this dataset.

    A more robust analysis might require further exploration, including visualizing the trend and performing statistical tests for understanding whether the increases and decreases are significant or random, and detecting outliers.

    It should also be noted that exchange rates are highly impacted by a lot of variables like trade balances, inflation, interest rate changes, geopolitical stability, and so on. Hence a thorough foreign exchange analysis requires a lot of multidimensional socioeconomic data.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    From the raw data provided, we can see that the exchange rate started at 0.88541 and ended at 0.88595 over the period observed. There is a slight increase overall during this period, but the changes are very minimal. The minute observations of the data do not show a consistent upward or downward trend. However, the changes from the starting to the ending data suggesting that the exchange rate has remained relatively stable over this period.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    In the provided dataset, we cannot observe evidence of any clear recurring pattern or seasonality. The data demonstrates fluctuations at different intervals yet these changes do not appear to follow a specific cycle. Also, the intervals between observations are irregular, which makes recognizing a pattern more challenging. The data does not provide any day of the week or time of the year, which would be typically used to identify weekly or annual seasonality, respectively. Therefore, this analysis does not confirm any strong seasonality or recurring patterns in changes to the exchange rates.

    3. Noting any outliers

    An outlier in the data would be a rate which significantly deviates from others. This can be referred to as either being unexpectedly high or unexpectedly low in comparison to previous and subsequent data points. In observing the provided data, no significant deviations or outliers are identifiable.

    It is important to note that even if certain individual data points might seem to deviate from the general movement of the data, they might not necessarily be outliers. They could simply be moments of higher volatility. Ultimately, this determination is subjective without having a defined range beyond which deviations are considered to be outliers.

    In Summary

    Over the observed period, the AUD exchange rate was fairly stable, without a strong, consistent increase or decrease over time. The data does not show clear evidence of recurring patterns or seasonality in exchange rate changes. Also, the dataset does not contain any clear outliers or significant deviations from the main range of values.

    It is important to remember that the analysis of this data is based on the numbers provided and it does not take into account any external factors. Future analysis could perhaps benefit from a consideration of these elements to achieve a more complete and complex understanding of the fluctuations in exchange rates.