Lilangeni Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overview of SZL Exchange Rate Trends

Upon a cursory review of the data provided, it appears that the SZL exchange rate initially remained relatively steady around 0.07153, with minimum variance. However, the trend shifted soon, with the rate increasing gradually to 0.07219 at some points. Later again, the rate dropped to around 0.07133, only to increase again, and then decrease, illustrating a trend of mixed fluctuations. It's important to note that the observed changes in the rate were minimal, indicating that it remained in a relatively tight band throughout the given period.

2. Seasonality in SZL Exchange Rates

An in-depth analysis of recurring patterns or seasonality would require data over a longer timeframe and ideally over multiple identical periods (for example, several years). However, based on this small sample and the short time span, discernible patterns or seasonality are not evident. The fluctuations in the rate appear more random than cyclical or seasonal.

3. Outliers in the Data

Outliers in exchange rate data typically represent significant deviations from the norm. These may be due to various reasons including economic events, policy changes, or simply unprecedented market activity. It's worth noting the sudden jumps in exchange rate, such as the increase from 0.07145 to 0.07189 then subsequently to 0.07219, and further the drop to 0.07133. These will be considered as outliers since they represent considerable departures from the generally observed slow and minimal change.

Overall, this analysis provides a snapshot of the SZL exchange rate's behavior for the given period. A deeper understanding of these rates and the forces affecting them would likely necessitate a more comprehensive dataset and a more intricate analytical process which aren't in the scope for this brief review.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon analysis, the data indicates that there is a slight increase in exchange rates throughout the time period shown. Starting from 0.07139, the exchange rate consistently shows a mild upward trend, reaching 0.07153 by the last given time point. This gradual increase, although not very steep, is consistent and indicates a subtle appreciation.

Identifying Seasonality in the Exchange Rates

Regarding seasonality in this dataset, it is quite challenging to thoroughly ascertain from this sample. With time-series data like this one, seasonality refers to predictable and recurring trends and patterns that occur in a specific time frame. However, the data provided does not display any obvious seasonality. The fluctuations within a single day do not seem to occur in regular intervals or follow a particular pattern. Additionally, the data sample is just about one day, which might not be enough to detect any weekly, monthly or yearly patterns. For a more detailed analysis of seasonality, a wider time range of data might be necessary.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

In terms of outliers, the data seems to be reasonably uniform, with the exchange rate predominantly fluctuating mildly around the 0.0714 - 0.0716 range. However, there is a slight dip in the exchange rate to 0.07122 at the timestamp 2024-04-24 14:55:04. This point deviates from the nearby values and could be considered an outlier. Similarly, the data point at the timestamp 2024-04-24 20:05:04 records an exchange rate of 0.07157. This is the maximum value in the dataset, standing out from its neighboring rates and may be identified as another potential outlier. These outliers might be due to random noise in the data, specific market events, or perhaps larger economic factors not considered in this simple analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

After analyzing the data provided, the overall trend of the SZL exchange rates seems to be fluctuating marginally within a narrow range. The continuous highs and lows indicate slight volatility in the exchange rate across the timestamps provided. It seems to exhibit a possible sideways motion which suggests an underlying stability for the time being, with the rates hovering around 0.0718 to 0.0714.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As far as any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates are concerned, the data does not provide clear evidence of such patterns. However, several minor fluctuations can be observed. Notably, the data does not cover an extensive enough period (only 24 hours) to conclusively determine any seasonality or recurring patterns in the price changes over the course of a week, month or year.

Noting any Outliers

In the given data set, no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate deviates majorly from the expected trend were observed. The rates mainly remained consistent with the general trend observed. Again, for an in-depth outlier analysis, data for a more extended period and a wider range of values might be beneficial.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

After reading through the provided time series data of the SZL exchange rate, it can be noted that the rate generally fluctuates around 0.071-0.072. The magnitude of these fluctuations is small, generally not exceeding 0.0005 on each move, thus it can be concluded that the SZL exchange rate over the given period is somewhat stable, with no clear increasing or decreasing trend.

Uncovering Seasonality

Upon analyzing the patterns within the exchange rate data, no clear intra-day or daily repeatable pattern (seasonality) is evident. The data presents a more random walk, but this could be due to the fact that many influencing factors determine the foreign exchange rates. Further analysis with additional data (other currencies, macroeconomic factors) may be required. This conclusion is based on the limited provided data and might not hold for a different time period.

Identifying Outliers

In the given dataset, there were no significant outliers or extreme values observed. This indicates that there were likely no sudden, unexpected events causing dramatic swings in the SZL exchange rate during this period. However, it should be noted that the absence of outliers in this dataset does not negate the possibility of their occurrence in the future, as exchange rates can be affected by numerous unpredictable factors.

Note: The analysis is purely descriptive and based on the historical data provided. No predictive analytics were applied and no future forecasts were made. Also, this analysis did not consider the external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Week

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Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

After a careful review of the dataset provided, the overall trend shows a general gradual increase in the exchange rate over time from the start date on 22nd March 2024 to the end date on 19th April 2024. The exchange rate starts at a value of 0.0719 and ends at a value of 0.07191. Despite some variations and fluctuations throughout this period, the overall trend leans towards an increase rather than a decrease. It's worth noting that this does not necessarily mean that the rate will continue to increase in the future, as exchange rates are inherently volatile and can be influenced by an array of factors from inflation rates to political stability.

2. Seasonality in the Exchange Rates

As for seasonality, the dataset does not cover a long enough period to definitively establish any seasonal patterns. However, there seem to be minor fluctuations in the data which could likely be attributed to intra-day trading volatility. Typically, exchange rates can fluctify during the day as global financial markets open and close.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

There are no significant obvious outliers in the dataset; most of the exchange rates are clustered reasonably closely around the gradual upward trend. Some slight peaks and troughs can be observed, signaling a momentary rise or fall in the rate, but none of these appear to be extreme enough to be classified as true outliers.

To identify outliers, we need to look for data points that are statistically distant from the others, which would indicate a significant deviation from the expected value. A deeper statistical analysis would be required to identify these with certainty, but visually, none stand out in the current dataset.

Conclusion

Overall, the SZL exchange rate demonstrates a slightly upward trend from March 2024 to April 2024, with minor daily fluctuations likely due to normal trading volatility. No significant outliers were identified in this review, but the potential for their existence should be considered in further, more detailed analyses.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend of the SZL Exchange Rates

The given set of timestamped data shows the SZL exchange rate over a specific period. On a broad observation, the dataset indicates a slight overall decrease in exchange rates over time. This is seen from the reduction in the exchange rates from an initial value of 0.07315 to an ending value of 0.07191. Though minor fluctuations are observed throughout the data series, the overarching trend leans towards a decrease.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In analyzing the seasonality of the SZL exchange rates, it is important to look at patterns that recur at regular intervals within the data. In the given dataset, there don't seem to be strong seasonality factors or recurring patterns that noticeably impact the exchange rates. The data does not show consistent peaks or troughs in the exchange rate at specific hours of the day. Nevertheless, recurring minor fluctuations can be observed, but they don't seem to follow a predictable or cyclical pattern. Therefore, based on the available data, it is difficult to establish any specific seasonality trends.

3. Outliers in SZL Exchange Rates

Outliers in financial data are typically values that significantly differ from other observations. In the given dataset, we do not observe any significant outliers. The changes in the SZL exchange rates are minimal and consistent with the overall decreasing trend. Thus, the data is relatively stable with no significant instances where the exchange rate differs exceptionally from the overall trend.

The dataset provided for the SZL exchange rate over a specific period does not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Therefore, changes in the exchange rates shown in this data set are purely based on the transactions performed during this period.

It is important to note that this analysis is based solely on the provided dataset and does not project or predict future exchange rates. Consequently, any decisions made using this analysis should factor in the dynamic nature of exchange rates and the influence of various market factors not considered in this data.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend in the exchange rates provided appears mostly stable such that there are small fluctuations around the value 0.072. Running a basic trend analysis on the exchange rates, we can see that the SZL exchange rate at the beginning was 0.07209 and ended at 0.07196 implying a small downward trend. However, the changes have been quite minute, pointing to a largely stable rate.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Regarding the seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, there do not appear to be any clear-cut or explicit patterns in this dataset. There might be minute upward and downward trends happening within short periods, which could be due to typical daily volatility in currency exchange rate. However, without a larger or more detailed dataset, it's challenging to identify specific recurring patterns or seasonal shifts.

Outliers

As for outliers, the data provided shows a significant unexpected dip to 0.07162 at 2024-04-19 06:25:02 timestamp, which recovered soon after. This could be due to a variety of factors, generally linked to demand and supply shifts in the market. However, without additional context or data, the specific cause behind this sudden drop cannot be definitively determined.

Please note, these analyses are purely based on the numerical values provided in the dataset and do not consider the specifics of the economical, geopolitical, or financial market circumstances at those specific times. Therefore, while they provide a general insight into the behavior of the exchange rates during the period in question, they may miss out on the impacts of specific real-world events or trends.