Lilangeni Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon analyzing the provided data, it is evident that the SZL exchange rate is presenting slight fluctuations throughout the indicated timestamps. The recorded values ranged between 0.07038 to 0.07079. However, the general trend of SZL exchange rate across the period is not showing a definitive increase or decrease. Rather, it's more reflective of a stable rate with minor fluctuations here and there.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it is challenging to locate any clear patterns given that the data provided is purely for a single day - the 29th February 2024. For most of the day, the rate fluctuates around 0.0704 to 0.0706, until about 11 AM when there is a small increase, lasting till about 1 PM. This could potentially be representative of a pattern during midday hours, but is hard to definitively state without data from more days. If this is a common pattern during this time in weekdays or it's a one-time event is something that can't be ascertained at this point.

    3. Identification of Outliers

    The SZL exchange rates provided demonstrate minor SWL exchange rate changes throughout the day, without any drastic changes or outliers.

    The maximum SWL exchange rate observed was 0.07079 while the minimum was 0.07038. These observed outliers appear to be well within the normal range and no major deviations or unexpected rates have been noticed that could impact the overall trend or display drastic fluctuations.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The exchange rates have shown a generally increasing trend over the period. This can be noted from a slight increase from around 0.07062 earlier in the day to about 0.07057 later in the day. Although there were minor fluctuations throughout, the overall trend leaned towards a gradual increase. The rates remained fairly stable, not showing any drastic, rapid shifts, but rather an incremental ascent.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Changes

    In terms of seasonality, there doesn't seem to be a consistent, discernible pattern at different times of the day. The rates demonstrate frequent fluctuations but do not follow a strong periodic pattern. There may be shifts relating to broader market movements that would require a longer time series to detect.

    Notable Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    On initial examination of the dataset, the exchange rates seem fairly consistent, with no significant anomalies or outliers. The rate of 0.07054 stood out, which was considerably lower than the range of the main body of data but it recovered quickly to the preceding and proceeding values, aligning back into the general trend. This indicates a stable performance of exchange rates, with no drastic detours or incidents during this period.

    Please note: This information is purely derived from the data given and doesn't take into account external factors such as economic trends, financial news or market hours which may also affect the observed results in real-world contexts. For a more holistic understanding of the exchange rate behavior, those factors would also need to be considered.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Data Analysis

    Examining the data provided, it's clear that the SZL exchange rate varies over the course of a single day, and also across multiple days. Following are the insights gained from the analysis:

    1. Overall Trend

    The data shows a volatility in the SZL exchange rate. There are times when the exchange rate remains relatively stable, especially around the value of 0.07. However, there are instances where the rate decreases and increases sporadically. At 2024-02-26 13:20:03 it hit a low of 0.06989 and at 2024-02-26 20:30:03 it hit a peak rate of 0.07005. The overall trend seems to suggest periods of stability followed by periods of volatility.

    2. Seasonality and Patterns

    The data doesn't appear to show a clear seasonal pattern in the exchange rates. Mostly, the rate oscillates around the 0.07 mark. However, repetitive directional patterns aren't evident within this dataset. Further data sampling across a more extended period might be required to identify any potential seasonal patterns.

    3. Outliers

    There are no extreme outliers in the dataset as such. All the rates fall between the range of 0.06989 and 0.07005. Any interpretation of outliers would require a clear understanding of the acceptable fluctuation range for the SZL exchange rate, based on a historical standard deviation or interquartile range.

    Please note, it is still essential to understand that real-world financial data is often influenced by many external factors. Therefore while this simple analysis provides an overview of the data variability, more complex analytical approaches considering external factors might offer more insights.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the szl exchange rate, as shown in this time-series dataset, appears to be relatively stable with some slight fluctuations. The highest observed rate is 0.07239, whereas the lowest is 0.06755. The data does not indicate a clear trend of increasing or decreasing in the exchange rate. Instead, we observed a certain level of fluctuation within the defined range.

    Identifying Seasonality

    As for the seasonality, it's much harder to conclusively determine any regular patterns due to the inconsistency in the time intervals between data entries. There appear to be some times where the exchange rate rises or drops; however, these events do not show a clear pattern of repetition that would imply seasonality. Further statistical analysis with more structured data is required for a more accurate conclusion on recurring patterns.

    Understanding Outliers

    Looking at the outliers - instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the average - there are a few potential outliers within this timespan. In particular, the above-mentioned highest and lowest rates might be considered as outliers. However, these fluctuations do not seem to happen radically and are not frequent, they seem to smooth in the overall exchange rate variation.

    Please note that this analysis is purely descriptive, based on the provided data. For predictive analytics or a more detailed understanding of the exchange rate's behavior, a more thorough analysis would be required, including a study of external factors like market dynamics, economic indicators, and geopolitical events.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the SZL exchange rate over the provided period appears to be relatively stable with slight fluctuations. There seems to be some minor increase and decrease in the exchange rates but no significant or consistent rising or falling pattern has been identified over this period. The exchange rates range from the lowest at about 0.07025 to the highest at about 0.07163.

    Seasonality and Recurring patterns

    Due to the limited nature of the provided data, as well as the instruction to not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours and weekends/holidays, it is difficult to identify clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. The rates fluctuate with no apparent consistent pattern in intervals, or apparent links to specific times of the day.

    Outliers in the Data

    Considering the stable range of the exchange rates, no significant outliers have been identified in the analysis. All rates provided fall within a close range and no rates are significantly different from the rest. However, the sharp decline from 0.07111 to 0.07029 observed between the timestamps 2024-02-22 13:00:03 to 2024-02-22 14:00:04 can be considered as an irregular variation, though not extreme enough to be labeled as an outlier.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, the SZL exchange rate remains relatively stable over the evaluated period with only slight fluctuations and no significant patterns of increase or decrease. No clear seasonality was observed and no substantial outliers were identified. The analysis suggests a steady and consistent situation in the exchange rate behaviour.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Upon review of the SZL exchange rate data across the various time stamps, the overall trend seems to be fairly stable with minor fluctuations. It begins with an initial value of 0.07088 and after approximately a few hours of slight ups and downs, it ends with a fairly similar value of 0.07036. This indicates there is no significant overall increase or decrease in the exchange rates during the period illustrated.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the brief time series data, it is quite challenging to determine clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. The slight fluctuations in the rate values appear to be random and do not suggest a definitive recurrent pattern or cycle. A time series of a longer period might be necessary to derive significant seasonality or cyclical trends.

    3. Noticing Any Outliers

    Reviewing the data in intervals, most of the fluctuations in the exchange rate are confined to a very narrow range. However, there are few instances where the exchange rates differ a bit more significantly from the general trend. For instance, at the timestamp '2024-02-23 06:20:02', the exchange rate sharply falls to 0.0699 from 0.07088 in the previous timestamp around '2024-02-23 06:15:02'. Again, during '2024-02-23 10:10:03' there seems to be a brief peak at 0.07039. Despite these instances, it should be noted that the fluctuations remain quite minimal and do not stray extremely far from the overall pattern. Thus, it can be concluded that there are minor outliers in this dataset, but they are not overly significant to distort the overall stability of the exchange rates..