Belize Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall trend of exchange rates

    From the provided dataset, the exchange rate of the BZD currency generally shows a fluctuating trend over the period shown. The rate tends to rise and fall repeatedly, showing no clear general upward or downward trend. There are occasional spikes and dips in the rate but no consistent direction of the trend is observed.

    Seasonality or recurring patterns

    Analysis of the time-series data does not show any evident signs of seasonality or recurring patterns. However, note that this analysis does not account for potential weekly or monthly patterns – these would require a longer timeframe of data for accurate identification. Regardless, the currency rate shown here appears to shift frequently within a range rather than displaying a regular, recurring pattern.

    Notable outliers

    The data shows several potential outliers, or times when the exchange rate differed significantly from the general range of rates. This presence of outliers may indicate potential events or factors influencing the currency rate. However, it's important to remember that outliers need more qualitative research to understand their cause and impact properly.

    Acknowledgement of No External Factors Consideration

    This analysis does not consider the impact of external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of significant financial news and reports. Incorporating these factors could give more depth and complexity to the analysis, presenting a fuller picture of the market dynamics at play.

    Forecasting Disclaimer

    This analysis is only descriptive and does not include any forecasting of future rates. To build accurate and effective forecasts, a more comprehensive dataset and a range of statistical or machine learning methodologies would be required.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of BZD Exchange Rate

    From the initial perusal of the raw data, here are the findings:

    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The BZD exchange rate shown in the data is mostly increasing over the period. It starts from a low of approximately 0.6710 and ends at a slightly higher value close to 0.6741. This shows that, on average, the exchange rate has been on an upward trajectory, indicating that the currency has been gradually appreciating in value.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the time series nature of the data, there seems to be no obvious seasonal patterns or cyclic behavior visible from the raw data. However, finer trends and patterns may be observed from a thorough statistical analysis. These could be daily patterns or fluctuations corresponding to certain times of the day, which are common in exchange rate data. Without further deeper analysis, it is difficult to conclusively determine the existence of any seasonality or recurring patterns.

    3. Outliers in the Data

    Bearing in mind that we have a huge dataset and outliers can only be accurately determined using statistical tools, there doesn't appear to be any obvious values which differ from the general trend in a significant way. An outlier in this context would be an exchange rate that significantly deviates from the trend for no apparent reason. After thorough investigation on this matter, no such values were found. Nonetheless, further in-depth statistical analysis may reveal outliers that cannot be spotted by mere observation of the raw data.

    Note: The observations mentioned above are solely based on the time-series data given. They do not take into account external factors such as economic events, changes in monetary policy, and others. Such factors can have a significant impact on exchange rates and should be considered for a comprehensive analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

    Observing the numbers provided, it appears that the exchange rate initially stays stable from 0.66959 at 2024-02-26 00:00:02 to 0.6696 at 2024-02-26 01:40:02, with minor fluctuations. The rate then starts to rise and reaches a peak value of 0.67046 at 2024-02-26 02:55:02. Afterwards, the rate continues to fluctuate with minute decrease and increase.

    However, the largest increase in exchange rate is observed between 2024-02-26 06:10:02 and 2024-02-26 06:20:02, where it jumps from 0.66974 to 0.67069. As we progress further, the rate goes up and down with minor changes.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    Due to the short period of data we have, it is challenging to identify any seasonality in the exchange rates. However, a recurring pattern is visible throughout the timeline where the exchange rate seems to remain steady for a while and then experiences a momentary increase or decrease. After that, the rate reverts back to the trend it was previously following. This pattern seems to repeat at regular intervals throughout the day.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    While the exchange rate data seem to follow a stable trend with minor fluctuations, there are a few points where the rate has changed drastically compared to the previously following trend. These are the outliers in our data:

    • The value increased from 0.66974 at 2024-02-26 06:10:02 to 0.67069 at 2024-02-26 06:20:02.
    • Similarly, the value saw a drop from 0.67095 at 2024-02-26 07:00:02 to 0.67063 at 2024-02-26 07:30:03.

    These are just two of the outliers where the rate saw a significant change in a short period. However, immediately after each outlier, the rate reverts back to its initial steady trend as if correcting itself over the next few time intervals.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    In this analysis, we will examine the time series data provided to understand trends, identify seasonality, and detect potential outliers in the given foreign exchange rates (BZD).

    Overall Trend

    Upon visual inspection of the given time series data, it does not conclusively illustrate a clear trend of increase, decrease, or stability. The exchange rates broadly fluctuate within a relatively stable range throughout the data set. More advanced statistical tests, such as decomposition or trend detection algorithms, would be needed to quantify any subtle trends not immediately apparent.

    Seasonality and Regular Patterns

    From the given data, there is less evident periodicity or clear patterns in the exchange rates over time. However, exchange rates are notoriously challenging to analyze for seasonality because of the overwhelming influence of external economic factors, policy changes, market sentiment, or major news events. These often override any inherent seasonality within the data. To reliably detect any minor recurrent patterns or seasonality, a more sophisticated time series analysis or machine learning algorithm would be needed.

    Outliers

    Defining outliers in a financial context can be somewhat subjective, as what may be considered an outlier in one context may be deemed normal in another, especially when dealing with the exchange rates. From the provided information, it is not immediately obvious if there are significant outliers that deviate massively from the mean. To further validate this, more technical statistical methods such as the Z-score or the IQR method would be necessary to identify any potential outliers.

    To conclude, a more advanced analysis, perhaps implementing machine learning methods or statistical analysis, could reveal deeper insights into this data. That being said, it is crucial to keep in mind that financial time series data such as exchange rates are often influenced heavily by external factors making them very difficult to forecast with high accuracy.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the given time series data, the general trend of the exchange rates appears to be somewhat stable over the period shown. A look at the daily low and high prices suggests that there is not a significant trend upwards or downwards. Variations in the rate are within a small range, indicating a relatively stable currency.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    There does not seem to be an immediately discernible seasonality to the exchange rates from this dataset alone. Seasonality in foreign exchange rates, if it exists, is usually observed over longer timespans such as annually or quarterly. To determine if there are any recurring patterns, a deeper analysis involving a much larger set and variety of data over extended periods would be required.

    Identification of Outliers

    Outliers, or instances where the rate differs significantly from the average, seem to be minimal. There are few incidents where the exchange rate spikes or drops sharply and those few instances can be described as normal volatility in the foreign exchange market. Again, a more robust statistical analysis using an expanded dataset would better determine outliers.

    A Few Considerations

    • The exchange rates for currency pairs may be influenced by various factors, including economic indicators, market sentiment, geopolitical events, and central bank interventions. In the absence of these factors from the analysis, conclusions about trends and patterns should be regarded as preliminary findings.
    • Also, the fact that currency markets do not operate on a fixed schedule (such as typical equity markets do) can influence rates. This may not be apparent from a small snapshot of data.
    • Even though there are not any patterns observable from the provided data, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t any. Financial markets are known to operate on cyclical patterns which can often only be observed with a larger dataset and complex analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

    From a preliminary analysis of the data, it suggests that there is a moderate increase in the exchange rate over time. At the beginning of the time series, the exchange rate starts at around 0.66696, and it ends at around 0.66971. This indicates that the rate has increased marginally over this time period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

    On examining the data, I did not observe a clear repeating pattern which would suggest seasonality. The exchange rates seem to fluctuate within a relatively tight band, suggesting a random walk process, without displaying any particular trend over hours or half-hours.

    The Existence of Outliers

    There are no glaring outliers observed from the given data, i.e., we're not seeing any extreme values that significantly deviate from the trend. However, a thorough statistical test may be conducted to conclusively say if any observations could be considered outliers.

    Please note that this analysis is solely based on the dataset provided and did not include outside factors such as the time of day, market opening/closing, any potential effects of weekends or holidays, or the impact of financial news or reports.