Tugrik Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

In analysing the dataset provided, the following observations were made:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon visualization of the time-series data, it is observed that the exchange rate is relatively stable throughout the entire timeframe. The data points are at a constant value of 0.0004, which suggests that there is no significant change or trend in the MNT exchange rate on the date specified (2024-04-25).

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Given that the data spans only a single day and the exchange rate remains constant throughout, it's not possible to identify any popular seasonality trends or recurring patterns within this dataset. A longer time period, typically at least a few years, would be required to confirm the presence of any seasonal effects or repetitive patterns accurately.

Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

Since all the exchange rates provided in the dataset are constant and don't differ over the given timestamps, no outliers can be observed. An outlier, in this case, would be a significant deviation from the constant rate of 0.0004, which doesn't occur in this dataset.

Please note that this analysis is purely based on the dataset provided and does not consider outside influences such as market trends, political events, or economic indicators. For an in-depth and accurate analysis, other external factors and a larger dataset should be taken into consideration.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding of The Overall Trend

From the data provided, the MNT exchange rate seems to remain steady at 0.0004 throughout the period. There is no evident upward or downward trend in this dataset as the exchange rate maintains its value consistently at each recorded timestamp throughout the day.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon examining this dataset, no significant seasonality or recurring patterns appear evident since the exchange rate maintains the same value for each timestamp. There is no indication of any cyclic patterns relating to the time of day, week, or month.

3. Noting of Outliers

As the exchange rate is uniform throughout, there are no outliers present in this dataset, or instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the constant value of 0.0004.

Please note that this analysis is purely based on the provided data and does not consider any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Also as instructed, no forecast has been generated for future rates.

Conclusions

• All recordings of the MNT exchange rate remain constant throughout the dataset, maintaining a steady value.
• No evidence of any seasonal or recurring patterns in the exchange rate.
• No instances of unexpected differences in the value, i.e., no outliers are observed.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

According to the data provided, the exchange rate (MNT) remains constant over the period shown. It is at a constant rate of 0.0004 for each timestamp. While this might suggest stability in the market, it's unusual for a rate to remain so steady over such an extended period. It's important to verify the accuracy of the data or identify if this is a placeholder or average value.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Due to the constant rate throughout the given period, it is impossible to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. Generally, fluctuations would be expected due to varying supply and demand conditions or shifts in economic policy. However, such fluctuations are not observable in this dataset.

Identification of Outliers

In view of the constant exchange rate throughout the period, there are no outliers in the dataset. An outlier would present as a significant deviation from the logged exchange rate of 0.0004, but no such deviations are present in the data.

External Factors

The analysis does not consider the impact of external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Since the requested analysis scope does not involve these external implications, the interpretation strictly adheres to the presented time-bound data, which, in this case, does not present any variability.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of Time-series Data: Trending, Seasonality, and Outliers

Firstly, the MNT exchange rate appears to be constant throughout the entire dataset. The value for MNT remains at 0.0004 for all timestamps given, indicating a trend of stability in the exchange rate over the period shown. Generally, exchange rates fluctuate due to aspects such as inflation rates, interest rates, country’s debt levels, terms of trade, political stability and economic performance among others. However, in this dataset, no change is observed in the exchange rate. This could be due to the way the data is sampled, or extraordinary stability in the external factors which typically influence an exchange rate.

Seasonality in the dataset

As there are no fluctuations in the value of MNT exchange rate data provided, no seasonality or recurring patterns are apparent. Usually, seasonality would be manifested as specific patterns occurring at regular intervals over time in the dataset. This might not be the case in this dataset due to the absence of fluctuations and hence the possible absence of certain external influences.

Outliers in the dataset

Similarly, due to the constant exchange rate in the dataset, there are no exceptions or instances that deviate from the trend indicating there are no outliers in this dataset. Outliers would typically appear as extreme values that are noticeable against the trend of the data, but as the data is identical for all timestamps, no such cases exist in this situation.

In conclusion, the dataset shows a stable MNT exchange rate with no observable seasonality or outliers. However, it is rare for financial time-series data to show no change over time, so it might be useful to review the data collection and sampling techniques used to gather this dataset.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

To interpret this data based on your request, my analysis will be divided into 3 parts: Identification of overall trends, detection of seasonality or recurring patterns, and noting of any outliers or unexpected occurrences. However, it's interesting to note that your data shows little movement, with most values staying constant at 0.0004 except for a slight shift to 0.00041 on 2024-04-12.

1. Overall trend of the exchange rate

From an initial look at the data, the exchange rates seem to remain stable. The value stays constant at 0.0004 for all timestamps with the only exception coming on 2024-04-12, where it moves to 0.00041. No distinct trend towards increase or decrease is apparent in this dataset.

2. Seasonality in the exchange rate

Given the nature of the data, it's challenging to discern any seasonality or recurring patterns. Since the exchange rate remains static for most of the period, there's no periodic fluctuation that could indicate seasonal changes or regular patterns. Further quantitative analysis methods might be required to identify more subtle patterns unseen in a basic data overview.

3. Outliers in the dataset

The outlier in this data is clear - the exchange rate moves to 0.00041 on two occasions on 2024-04-12, diverging from the usual rate of 0.0004. Without more information, it's hard to determine if this constitutes a significant anomaly or if it's within regular fluctuations of the exchange rate. Given that this is the only deviation from the norm, it might be worthwhile to examine this point more closely under different circumstances.

To fully understand this data, more complex analysis methods and deeper contextual information may be required. Nevertheless, based on your given dataset, these observations serve as a preliminary review. The stability of the exchange rate is remarkable, suggesting either a very stable economy or a lack of volatile transactions during the observed time period.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Sure, I can provide a comprehensive analysis based on the given time series data. Please note, an actual comprehensive and meaningful analysis usually requires more extended data, but based on what you've provided, here's what I infer:

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

It appears the exchange rate (MNT) has remained constant at 0.0004 across all timestamps provided. There's no obvious increase or decrease discernible from the current dataset, which suggests a stable trend for the currency over the period shown.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Based on this dataset, it's challenging to establish any seasonal trend or recurring pattern due to the constant nature of the rates. Generally, we would expect some fluctuation over different times and dates, but every recorded exchange rate here remains at 0.0004. Without changes or variations in the rate, it signifies no discernible seasonality within this data.

3. Noting Any Outliers

In this given dataset, as the exchange rates follow a uniform pattern and remain consistent over time, there doesn't seem to be any outliers. Outliers would typically be characterized by drastic or significant spikes or dips compared to a general trend or average. However, since there is no variation in this dataset - all values being 0.0004 - it's safe to say there's no detectable outlier present in this dataset.

Conclusion

Based on the given data, the exchange rates have been consistently stable, with no noticeable fluctuations, patterns or outliers the during observed period. This analysis purely reflects the provided dataset and may lack specifics of external influences and broader trends over more extended periods.

Please remember that any actual financial decision should be based on a more detailed analysis, incorporating external factors and additional data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon analyzing the given dataset, it is observed that the overall trend in the MNT exchange rate has remained constant at 0.0004 over the period shown. There are no noticeable increases or decreases in the exchange rate as every data point provided in the rows indicate the same exchange rate of 0.0004.

Patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Again, since there is no variation in the exchange rate value throughout the dataset (i.e., all values are 0.0004), there are no identifiable recurring patterns or seasonality in the changes of exchange rates.

Any outliers identified in the exchange rates

Given that the data provided shows a consistent exchange rate of 0.0004, there are no outliers observed, as no instance of the exchange rate noticeably differs from this common value.

Key Observations

• The MNT exchange rate remains constant and stable at 0.0004 in the given time series dataset.
• As there is no change in the exchange rate over time, there is no identifiable trend or seasonality.
• There are no outliers in the data as the exchange rate is consistent throughout.

It's worth mentioning that any analysis done is based solely on the provided data and does not take into account any external factors such as market condition, financial news, or specific events that could potentially impact the exchange rate.