Loti Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Upon analyzing the provided time-series data, it appears that the exchange rates of LSL exhibit a slight upward trend throughout the given period. The data starts at an exchange rate of 0.07114 and ends at an exchange rate of 0.07072. While the data does fluctuate up and down throughout the period, the general direction of the exchange rate is upward. It's important to note, however, that this is a very subtle trend which indicates stability in the exchange rates over the period shown.

    2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Based on the data set presented, there doesn't seem to be any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate data within the specific timeframe provided. The LSL exchange rate exhibits slight fluctuations over time but no discernible patterns emerge upon examination. This could suggest that the rate is influenced by a variety of factors and is subject to change without a predictable pattern within this period.

    3. Spotting Outliers

    There doesn't seem to be significant outliers in the given dataset. This is an indication that the LSL exchange rate behaved in a relatively stable manner throughout the timestamped period, with no sudden or unexpected spikes or dips. This is a good indication of a stable rate, not subject to sudden or unpredictable changes during the period under analysis.

    However, while the data analysis doesn't reveal any significant outlier in the LSL exchange rate within this period, it's always a good practice to remain aware of potential anomalies and check the data regularly.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The data suggests that the LSL exchange rate slightly increased over the time period. There was a gradual increase in the numbers showing that the exchange rate has slightly risen from 0.07101 at the beginning of the time series data to 0.07113 at the end. This increase is very slight and seems to fluctuate within a confined range which might indicate a stable economy or market situation during this period.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Within the dataset, fluctuations are present but a clear recurring pattern or seasonality is not evidently observed within this specific duration. The intervals of the timestamps are not daily, monthly or yearly, which would provide a basis for seasonality. Furthermore, the variation in the LSL exchange rate throughout the dataset may be the result of random movements or short-lived factors which seem to neutralize each other in the long run.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    Regarding outliers, with such slight fluctuations and confined range of movement, no significant outliers can be determined within this dataset. This minimal variation throughout the dataset might suggest efficient market dynamics during the time period where changes in exchange rates reflect all available information. Hence, no single rate significantly deviates from the rest of the data, ruling out the existence of outliers in this instance.

    External Factors

    Although it was requested not to consider external factors, it's important to note that exchange rates are influenced by them. Market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can significantly impact exchange rates. However, without this specific information, this analysis only looks at the existing numbers and their changes during the given timestamps.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon examining the dataset, it can be observed that the overall trend of the LSL exchange rate from 2024-02-26 00:00:02 to 2024-02-26 23:55:02 is slightly decreasing. The rate commences at 0.0704 and concludes at 0.06982; although there are fluctuating increases and decreases in the interim, the overall trend suggests a slight downward trajectory.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates, the given data does not show any clear indications, mainly due to the short time frame in which data has been collected. Longer term data is required to identify any seasonal patterns. However, regular micro-fluctuations can be observed during the day.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    Considering the slight downward trend, there are no significant outliers in the dataset. All the exchange rates fall within the narrow band between 0.0704 and 0.06982. While there are multiple fluctuations, none appear significant enough to be considered outliers based on the provided dataset.

    To sum up, the data demonstrates a slightly decreasing trend with regular micro-fluctuations within a narrow band. There are no apparent seasonal trends or significant outliers. However, for a more accurate understanding of the data, especially about seasonality and outlier detection, a larger dataset is recommended. It could cover more diverse timeframes, including more hours of the day, different days of the week, and even multiple months or years.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates can be identified by observing the data provided. In this case, it appears that the exchange rate of LSL experienced slight fluctuations over the given period. There's no significant upward or downward pattern as the changes oscillate reasonably close to a consistent mean. However, the data demonstrates a low level of volatility, suggesting that the currency’s value has minor shifts.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    The time series data indicates a certain level of regularity, potentially hinting at a weak daily seasonality. However, with the data provided over the span of around two weeks, it's challenging to definitively pronounce on a broader, more long-term seasonality associated with this exchange rate. It is recommended to assess more extensive data spanning over several months or years to understand further the seasonal patterns of these exchange rates.

    3. Identification of Outliers

    An outlier is an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values in a random sample from a population. Given this dataset, it's challenging to distinctly identify any apparent outliers just by observing the data. An accurate identification of outliers would generally need a more rigorous statistical test, such as stablishing a defined range using the Interquartile Range (IQR) or the Z-score method. However, it can be observed that the data seems to fluctuate consistently around the 0.071 mark, with minor exceptions, indicating that no severe outliers have been presented in this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    The exchange rates over the period shown in the dataset exhibit a certain level of volatility, with both increasing and decreasing trends observed. We start with rates around 0.07136 which increase slightly to reach a peak at 0.07163, before decreasing overall to a low of 0.07023. Towards the end of the time period, there is a slight upward trend, although the exchange rate remains lower compared to the start. Therefore, there is no constant increasing or decreasing trend; the rates show a fluctuating behavior.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Given the data and the time period, it is challenging to identify concrete seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. This might be due to the continuous nature of exchange rate data which can be sensitive to numerous external factors. Also, the time series data seems to exhibit more white noise characteristics (random variation) than clear seasonality or cyclical patterns.

    3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    One notable outlier in the data is observed on '2024-02-22 14:00:04', where the exchange rate drops significantly from 0.07115 to 0.07029. This represents a singular and pronounced shift away from the trend that is not commensurate with the general level of volatility seen in the rest of the data. Other than that, the exchange rates do not show any significant deviations from the general trend that would classify them as outliers.

    Disclaimer

    Please note that this analysis only considers the numerical data provided and does not take into account any external market conditions, financial news, or other events that might impact exchange rates. Also, the analysis does not forecast future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    In terms of general trend, the exchange rate appears to have stayed relatively stable over the course of the time period provided. The rates have indeed fluctuated, but have moved within a narrow band, showing no distinct pattern of consistent increase or decrease. Furthermore, although there have been slight rises and falls, the magnitude of these fluctuations is relatively small, suggesting that the exchange rate exhibits a degree of steadiness.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Regarding seasonality and recurring patterns, the data sample provided does not appear to exhibit any obvious cyclic patterns or regular fluctuations that would indicate a seasonal effect. However, consider that this conclusion is based on the limited data set provided and may not hold as more data is accumulated and observed. A comprehensive seasonal or cyclic analysis often requires longer-term data, spanning multiple months or years, to account for potential external factors or inherent characteristics of the foreign exchange market.

    Identification of Outliers

    Throughout the data, there doesn't seem to be any significant outliers. All variations in the rates fall within a small range whereby the maximum deviation doesn't seem to exceed much beyond the mean. This suggests that in the given time frame, the exchange rate does not exhibit any extreme spikes or sudden dips which could have been classified as outliers. However, the identification of outliers often involves statistical methods and could be more accurately performed using quantitative analysis tools.

    In conclusion, based on this dataset, the exchange rate seems to be relatively stable without an evident upward or downward trend. No clear seasonal or recurring patterns are apparent, and no outliers were observed. Nevertheless, a more thorough analysis, possibly deploying mathematical and statistical methods, and expanded dataset spanning a more extended period could provide additional insights.