Som Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon examining the provided dataset, it is observed that the overall trend of the exchange rates for KGS is largely stable, with minimal fluctuations. The rates appear to hover around 0.01537 - 0.01545 throughout the given period. There are minor decreases and increases observable; however, they do not drastically alter the overall stability of the exchange rate. This suggests that during this timeframe, the currency's value remained quite consistent.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the provided data, it's difficult to identify a clear seasonality or recurrence in the exchange rates fluctuations. This is possibly due to the short time frame of the data provided. However, a slight variety is noticeable where the rate is increasing from 0.01537 to 0.01545 approximately after every one hour and then dropping back to 0.01537. While there seems to be a pattern, more data would be helpful in establishing a definite claim of any seasonality.

Noting Outliers

Looking at the dataset, there appear to be no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate drastically differs from the trend. The fluctuations that do exist occur within a minimal range and do not constitute a significant deviation from the overall trend. This again indicates the stability of the KGS exchange rate over this period.

Please note that these observations are purely based on numeric analyses and do not take into account any external market factors, financial updates, human factors, or unanticipated world events which could also impact exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

Upon analyzing the data provided, it shows that the exchange rate of the KGS (presumably the Kyrgyzstan Som - the currency for Kyrgyzstan) appears to be relatively stable with very slight increments over the given timeframe. There are not any significant changes or drastic fluctuations observed in the exchange rate data on this specific date (24th April, 2024) from midnight to nearly the end of the day.

Patterns and Seasonality

Regarding seasonality and recurring patterns, given the limited data of a single day without any reference to other days or weeks, it's challenging to establish any seasonal patterns, as these usually occur over longer periods. However, there appears to be a very mild increasing linear pattern on this particular day – the rate seems to start at around 0.01538 and gradually rises to approximately 0.01544 before settling down again to 0.01541 at the end of the day. Yet, it's important to note that these changes are minimal.

Outliers

No significant outliers are detected in this basic analysis. The variance of the exchange rates provided over this day is quite minimal. All rates stay within a small range of roughly 0.01538 to 0.01545, hence no single value stands out as being significantly higher or lower compared to the rest. Hence, this suggests that this is a typically expected pattern of change, and the stability suggests no major economic events were influencing the rate on this specific day.

Note:

This analysis is solely based on the numeric data provided and doesn't take into account any external environmental factors such as geopolitical events, economic news or changes in policies that could also impact exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Looking at this time-series data for the exchange rate (from 2024-04-23 00:00:02 to 2024-04-23 23:55:02), it seems that the exchange rate remains stable for the most part. Except for occasional slight variations (from 0.01537 to 0.01543), the exchange rate fluctuates around the 0.01538 mark. Through this period, there is no clear trend of a general increase or decrease, indicating a stable exchange market for the currency in question during this specified time period.

Identifying any recurring patterns or seasonality

At a glance at the provided data, it's hard to identify any clear seasonality or recurring pattern based on the timestamps and associated exchange rates. The slight variations in the exchange rate don't appear to follow a regular, predictable pattern that could be attributed to seasonality. Additional data or longer time period might be required for a more accurate assessment of seasonality.

Noting any outliers

An outlier in this data series would be a significant deviation from the approximate 0.01538 exchange rate. Based on the data provided, the exchange rate does not stray far from this mark, and nothing significant stands out as an outlier within this dataset. The exchange rate shows minor fluctuation but does not differ significantly from the norm, so it seems that there are no notable outliers that would need to be investigated further.

Note: Given the lack of relevant external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports these conclusions are based on the provided data alone.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Data Overview and Trend Analysis

Based on the provided dataset and after an initial review, it appears that the exchange rate we are dealing with is not excessively volatile within the timespan represented. The data starts at a rate of 0.01542, fluctuates slightly throughout the period, but ends in a similar position, at 0.01541. While there seems to be no substantial upwards or downwards trend in the exchange rate over this time frame, there are small oscillations in its value that are worth noting.

Periodicity and Recurring Patterns

At first glance of the data, it's not immediately evident that the exchange rate demonstrates a strong seasonality or regular recurring pattern within the given time frame. The value fluctuations seem to be random, with no apparent cyclical nature. However, a more robust statistical analysis would be required to definitively confirm whether there is or isn't a seasonal pattern in this time series data.

Outliers and Significant Variations

The raw data presented does not indicate the presence of any significant outliers, in the sense of any dramatic spike or dip in exchange rates. The rate does experience some minor fluctuations throughout, but these changes don't seem to deviate significantly from the general range of values. The data indicates relative consistency and stability in the exchange rates.

While there are minor variations in exchange rates, no particular instances stand out where the exchange rate differs significantly from what might be expected based on previously observed values.

It's worth noting that this analysis is based solely on the given data and does not take into account any external factors that might influence exchange rates, such as geopolitical events, fiscal policies, economic indicators, or market sentiment. Such factors could potentially cause outlier events or significant deviations from trends and patterns.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

From first glance, the dataset provided is a collection of KGS (Kyrgyzstani Som) exchange rates vs. a base currency (presumably USD) over a series of dates and times, ranging from 22nd March 2024 02:00:02 to 19th April 2024 12:00:03.

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

From scanning the provided data, it is clear that the exchange rate varies from 0.01509 to a high of 0.01552 over the time period. With some oscillations in between, the overall trend of exchange rates suggests a gentle incline. This gradual increase indicates a depreciation of the base currency or appreciation of KGS over the time period covered. It is important to bear in mind that such trends can be influenced by various economic factors not considered in this analysis.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon computation, there seems to be no clear patterns of seasonality evident in the data provided. Exchange rates appear to fluctuate occasionally which may be a result of daily trading activities. However, without a more expansive dataset, it may be difficult to definitively pinpoint and confirm a pattern of seasonality.

3. Noting Any Outliers

In the dataset provided, the exchange rate seems to be fairly stable. Scanning the data, there doesn't appear to be any significant outliers; the rate fluctuates around an increment of +/- 0.00003 which seems to be the norm for this dataset and there are no extreme values that seem uncharacteristic or off-trend. However, for a more comprehensive outlier detection and statistical analysis, advanced tools and techniques would need to be deployed.

Finally, I would like to stress that this is a simple analysis based on a limited data set. Additional accuracy and insights could be achieved with a more detailed dataset spanning a longer time frame and incorporating additional relevant variables.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon examination of the dataset, it is clear that the exchange rates (KGS) have displayed a slight upward trend over the given period. This can be seen as the values gradually rise from 0.01543 at the start to 0.01552 midway, and from there it fluctuates between 0.01546-0.01552 towards the end. Despite minor fluctuations, the general trend is towards a subtle increase.

2. Identifying Any Seasonality Or Recurring Patterns in The Changes of Exchange Rates

From the data analysis, it can be observed that there is no clear repeating or seasonal trend in the exchange rate changes. The rates neither demonstrate any hourly nor daily recurring changes. The exchange rates remain fairly constant without any significant periodic changes suggesting that there is no pronounced seasonality.

3. Noting Any Outliers

With respect to the data, there seem to be no significant outliers. The exchange rates given in this dataset fluctuates within a very narrow range and doesn't show any spikes or instances where the exchange rate falls or rises significantly beyond the commonplace oscillation. This indicates a reasonably stable environment wherein the exchange rate doesn't deviate drastically from the general trend.

Note: The above analysis is based on the given dataset and any potential external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of important financial news and reports have not been considered as per the specifications.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The time series data covers a period of one day, from 2024-04-19 00:00:02 to 2024-04-19 14:55:01. The exchange rates generally remained stable, with minor fluctuations. There was no strong increasing or decreasing trend observed. The value started at 0.01548, and there were minor fluctuations, up until the end of the monitored period, where it still stayed at 0.01545.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As the dataset only covers one-day period, there's not much to conclude about larger scale patterns such as weekly or monthly seasonality. However, throughout this one-day period, we didn't observe any particular recurring patterns or any specific times during which the value consistently tends to rise or fall.

Identifying Outliers

Given the limited range of fluctuations, it's difficult to identify any clear outliers just by analyzing the given data. Without a proper statistical analysis or more detailed financial models, defining an “unexpected” change is challenging. However, during this one-day period covered by the dataset, there were no significant or sudden changes in the exchange rate that would clearly stand out.

Future Considerations

While not explicitly requested, it's worth noting that for a more in-depth analysis of the exchange rates, it would be advantageous to have a larger dataset covering a longer period of time. This would enable identifying longer-term trends, seasonality patterns on a weekly or monthly scale, as well as more reliable identification of outliers. Moreover, while no external factors were considered in this analysis, they often play a significant role in financial markets, so incorporating them in future could enhance the predictive power of the analysis.