Mauritius Rupee Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Okay, as per your request, we will focus on patterns, outliers, and general trend analysis without considering any external influences. Here is an analysis of the provided dataset:

1. Overall Trend Analysis:

The data provided for MUR (Mauritian Rupee) exchange rates from 00:00:02 to 23:55:02 on April 25, 2024, shows a slight fluctuating trend. From the available data, it can be inferred that the MUR rates mostly remained in the range of 0.02942 to 0.02954. The higher value occurred at the start of the day and fell slightly over the day, then increased towards the end of the day. This indicates a slightly negative trend for the day but it does not give clear evidence about a long-term trend. For that, similar data spanning across multiple days or months would be required.

2. Seasonality:

Based on the provided data, it's difficult to determine any strong seasonality or recurring patterns within the day. The fluctuation was within a narrow range, and no specific pattern can be decisively pointed out for this single day’s data. Seasonality patterns usually become apparent over larger datasets where recurring events and patterns can be recognized more intuitively.

3. Detection of Outliers:

In this data, an 'outlier' would be a value that deviates significantly from other values in the given period. Given that the data for this single day fluctuates within a narrow range, no significant deviation, thus no outliers, were observed. However, it is important to note that 'significant' is subjective and depends on the specific domain and the impact of such deviations on financial decisions. It may also be useful to consider a larger data set for more accurate outlier detection.

To summarize, this single-day data set for the MUR exchange rate on April 25, 2024, shows a slight fluctuating downward trend, without noticeable seasonality or outliers. For a more precise understanding of trends, seasonality, and outlier detection, a larger dataset spanning across multiple days, months, or years would be beneficial.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Based on the given data and following the requirements provided, here is a simple and quick analysis,

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The MUR exchange rate over the given time period shows minor variations. From a broad perspective, the rate appears to remain generally stable. The highest rate observed is 0.02957, and the lowest rate noted is 0.02942. As such, the overall difference is relatively small.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Within the provided data, there are no notable seasonal patterns or trends. This analysis is based only on the numbers supplied, and it does not account for potential external influencers or events that may affect patterns.

3. Outliers

Given the relatively stable range of exchange rates in the dataset, there is no significant variation or outlier. All the rates lie close to one another within a relatively tight range. However, this could change with a more detailed or longer-term analysis.

Please note, the above analysis is only a cursory overview based on the data provided. A more in-depth analysis could yield additional insights and reveal more complex patterns and trends.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding The Overall Trend

Briefly looking at the data, there are minor fluctuations in the exchange rate over the timeline presented. It seems to oscillate between 0.02935 to 0.02946. However, there does not seem to be a clear increasing or decreasing trend within the provided data. The exchange rate appears to remain relatively stable throughout the period specified.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In the context of this dataset, no discernible seasonality or recurrent pattern are apparent from the data provided. The exchange rate stays within a very close range, fluctuating slightly. Determining whether there is a recurring pattern might need further analysis on a more extensive dataset or employ advanced time series methods, which are not part of this analysis.

Outliers Identification

On initial inspection of the dataset, no significant outliers are observed. The values do not drastically deviate from the average. The exchange rate seems to maintain a narrow range through the specified timestamp. Rigorous statistical tests can identify any subtle outliers, which this simple analysis does not cover.

Overall, the MUR exchange rate has demonstrated stability within a narrow range in the given dataset. Besides, there are no noticeable impact changes or outliers that stand out in this short timeframe.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall trend

After careful analysis of your data, it appears that the overall trend of the exchange rates is relatively stable. There are minor fluctuations in the exchange rates, but largely the rate stays within a narrow range of 0.0294 - 0.0295. There's no prominent uptrend or downtrend observed in the given time period.

Seasonality or recurring patterns

With regard to the presence of seasonality or recurring patterns in the data, no significant evidence could be seen from the provided data. The exchange rates do not display any clear recurring patterns that could be associated with cyclical variations, such as specific times of the day, week, etc. However, without having a complete context or a longer time period, it can be challenging to make definitive observations about seasonality.

Outliers

The dataset does not appear to have significant outliers. All observed exchange rates lie in the range of 0.0294 to 0.0295, and thus, any rate outside this range could be considered as an outlier. In this dataset, however, no such instances exist. This adds to the initial observation of a stable exchange rate for the given period.

As a final note, it's important to recognize that financial markets are susceptible to a myriad of factors including but not limited to geopolitical events, monetary policies, economic indicators, etc. Therefore, while this analysis provides some insight into past behaviour, it does not guarantee future patterns.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Looking at the overall data set, we can observe that the exchange rate of MUR has seen some fluctuation from 0.02877 to 0.02975. Hence, there is no definitive overall trend of drastic increases or decreases. It seems to be slightly fluctuating around a common central rate. However, for more precise recognition of ascending or descending trends, more advanced analytical techniques like regression lines would be needed.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The dataset does not cover an entire year's span, so determining annual seasonality is not possible. Similarly, within the limits of the data covered, we don't have enough data points for each timestamp to derive any daily patterns. A weighted moving average analysis might reveal some short term repeated pattern but it's uncertain. However, there might be some intra-day patterns to be found given the data frequency is high within a day (every 2 hours). But for proper recurring pattern identification, more complex statistical tests should be performed.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

An apparent outlier in this dataset seems to be the relatively high value of 0.02975 on 2024-04-11 10:00:02 and a low value of 0.02877 on 2024-04-15 08:00:02. Other potential outliers can't be identified without rigorous statistical tests such as Z-scores, which are commonly used to find outliers in such datasets.

Due to the absence of external factors (such as major economic announcements or global events) and based on the narrow fluctuation range, these variations might just be part of the normal fluctuation of this currency pair and might not be "true" outliers in a statistical sense.

In conclusion, this preliminary analysis helps to get a high-level view of exchange rate fluctuations. For more accurate insights, we need to perform more in-depth analysis utilising appropriate statistical and econometric methods.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

On reviewing the dataset, it is clear that the exchange rates have demonstrated a slight increase throughout the period. Starting from 0.029 on April 15, 2024, the rate increased to 0.02966 on April 17, 2024, falling to 0.02942 on April 18, 2024, and returning to 0.02953 by April 19, 2024. Therefore, it can infer that throughout this time period, the rates were not stable and had slight fluctuations. But, the general trend of the exchange rates appears to be somewhat increasing.

Discovering Seasonality or Patterns

The given dataset does not span a long enough period of time to make a concrete statement about seasonality. Seasonality typically involves a repeating pattern or trend over a longer timeframe, such as an annual or quarterly cycle. However, there are slight fluctuations daily where the rates slightly go down before it starts to increase again. But to determine if this is a seasonal pattern, we would need more data for confirmation.

Noting Any Outliers

From the given data, there no significant outliers or extreme values discovered that deviated from the overall trend observed. All values oscillated between 0.02877 and 0.02966, which suggests a steady trend without any considerable volatility. So, there doesn't appear to be any instances where the exchange rate departs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the Exchange Rate Trend

The provided time series data shows a minimal fluctuation in the exchange rates over the time period. A close look at the numbers suggests the rates generally remain stable over the period shown. There is no observable long-term increasing or decreasing trend in the MUR exchange rates. It appears that the rates oscillate mostly within the range of 0.02949 and 0.02961.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Based on the dataset provided, there doesn't seem to be any conspicuous seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. At each timestamp, the exchange rate displays minor rises and falls, indicating a lack of distinct seasonal trends. However, given the short timespan and the minute level data provided, any minor deviations could be due to short-term market fluctuations rather than a clear seasonal pattern.

Identification of Outliers

In terms of outliers, the dataset doesn't present any instances in which the exchange rate shows a significant deviation. Almost all rate values fall well within a minimal range. Thus, making it pretty stable and devoid of, at least obvious, outliers. However, a more detailed statistical analysis would be required to validate if indeed there are no statistical outliers within these mostly steady rates.