Mauritius Rupee Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

    After analysing the dataset, it is observed that the overall trend of the MUR exchange rate on 29th February 2024 appears to be fluctuating with a slightly increasing trend. The exchange rate starts from a value of 0.02967 at the beginning of the day and closes at a slightly higher value of 0.02961 at the end of the day. Although the variations are not significant, it does indicate a gradual upward trend in this particular day. However, these small variations might accumulate to a significant change over a longer time period.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    Regarding seasonality in the exchange rates, it is hard to deduce any clear seasonal pattern or cyclic repetition from the given dataset. The exchange rates seem to be changing slightly on a minute-by-minute basis, which appears more random than sequential or cyclic. If a recurring pattern does exist, it might be on a larger time scale or influenced by factors not visible in this 24-hour period.

    3. Outliers in Exchange Rates

    Upon examination of the dataset, there do not appear to be any noticeable outliers or instances where the exchange rate exhibits an unusual jump or drop. The rates consistently range between 0.02960 and 0.02972 over the 24-hour period, so any changes within this range can be considered normal fluctuations. Any rate that falls significantly outside of this range could potentially be considered an outlier. However, no such rates are present in the provided dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    After examining the given time-series data, the leading perception is that the MUR exchange rate retains reasonable stability across the dataset's duration. However, there are some kinetic fluctuation periods, signifying the floating exchange rate's dynamic nature. One noticeable feature is a significant hike in exchange rates around the timestamp "2024-02-28 08:50:02", where the rate jumped from 0.02964 to 0.03032. Besides this spike, the rates in this dataset variate within a reasonably narrow range, mostly between 0.02961 and 0.03035, which indeed signifies a fair degree of stability. An exception can be seen in the period between "2024-02-28 08:50:02" and "2024-02-28 22:30:02" when the exchange rate reaches its peak and then returns to approximately similar levels pre-spike.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Generally, a larger dataset will be needed to confidently identify seasonal or recurring patterns in exchange rate changes. However, we can still note some observations from the provided dataset. There seem to be slight regular fluctuations in notable variation, with the value marginally increasing and decreasing repeatedly. This might signify a degree of cyclic tendency in the data, although it's hard to draw meaningful conclusions regarding seasonality without a more extended period data and additional context about the surrounding circumstances.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    In this dataset, there is one noticeable outlier. The exchange rate significantly spikes at the timestamp "2024-02-28 08:50:02". The rate increases to 0.03032 from 0.02964, representing an approximately 2.3% rise. This spike can be perceived as an outlier in the data due to its deviance from the otherwise relatively stable rate range. After this spike, the exchange rate kept this new level for a reasonable duration, until "2024-02-28 22:30:02" when it drastically dropped back to the prior range. This stands out as an interesting period within the data during which some impactful event might have occurred. However, given the confines of the data and restrictions on considering external factors, it's challenging to ascertain the exact causes for these significant movements.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The rates over this period slightly fluctuate - they start at 0.02954, peak at 0.02963 and end at 0.02951. Overall, the rate of the currency appears to be decreasing, but the fluctuation is quite minimal. Some slight upward trends can be seen in the data, but they are usually followed by a decrease.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    The rates seem to follow a slight daily pattern, increasing slightly in the early hours, maintaining a certain level for most of the day, then decreasing towards the end of the day. However, the recurring pattern isn't strong and can only be confirmed through further statistical testing.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    The major peak in exchange rate at 0.02963 can be considered an outlier as it is one of the few instances where the rate has risen above 0.0296. Similarly, the lowest rate at 0.02951 at the close of the day can be considered an outlier. Apart from these, the rates maintain a certain similarity and no other significant outliers can be noted.

    It's important to note that this analysis is solely based on the numerical dataset provided and does not take into account any external or socio-economic factors that might be influencing the trend.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    The data provided is over a period of about one month (from January 26, 2024 to February 23, 2024). First, let's analyze how the exchange rates have been moving in this one month period. By examining the data, it appears the exchange rates have been declining slightly over the period from January to February in 2024. The exchange rate began at 0.03011 on January 26, 2024, and ended at a rate of 0.02959 on February 23, 2024. However, the decrease isn't so significant to denote a clear trend of depreciation, and there have been periods of slight increase as well. So, the overall trend is slightly downward, but with relatively stable rates.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    In the given dataset, there doesn't appear to be a significant recurring pattern or seasonal variations that can be distinctly observed. The data isn't plotted against the days of the week or different months, so it's troublesome to draw any conclusions about the weekly or monthly recurring patterns if there exist any. Considering the data points we have, the exchange rates seem to fluctuate in a reasonably tight range and don't denote a clear pattern special to certain timestamps.

    3. Noting Outliers and Significant Changes

    There are no drastic shifts in exchange rates in this dataset. There are instances where the exchange rate slightly spikes or drops but do not seem to denote any outliers or anything that significantly deviates from the trend. However, without any graphical data visualization or statistical analysis, this observation might not be the most accurate. For a more precise analysis, a more comprehensive examination using statistical tools would be necessary.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Given the nature of the data provided, discerning an overall absolute trend could be challenging as the exchange rates appear to fluctuate regularly within a given range. However, a primary observation indicates that the exchange rates range between approximately 0.02858 and 0.02961 throughout the set of data. This does not indicate any significant long-term increase or decrease for the period presented.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Regarding seasonality, it is slightly challenging due to the absence of yearly data as seasonality typically refers to fluctuations that recur yearly. But when examining the dataset, indications of intraday variability suggest a daily pattern, with the rates appearing to change hour by hour. However, any solid conclusion about the pattern would require a more specific data analysis.

    3. Noting Any Outliers

    From the provided data, it appears to be relatively consistent, with most fluctuations being minor, typically within a hundredth of a point difference. Any sudden or significant changes could potentially be viewed as outliers. However, with the current dataset, no particular instance of an extreme variation or value that stands out significantly from the rest can be observed.

    Please note this analysis exclusively focuses on the dataset presented and does not consider external factors such as market hours, weekends, holidays, financial news, or forecast of future rates. A more precise analysis could be performed if additional context or more detailed information about the data is provided.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    By analyzing the data provided, it seems that the exchange rates (MUR) display a mostly stable trend throughout the set period. While there are minor fluctuations, these are within a narrow bandwidth. However, around the timestamp "2024-02-23 12:30:03" there is a noticeable slight increase, where the exchange rate goes from approximately 0.02952 to 0.02958 and subsequently levels off to a higher baseline of around 0.0296 by the end. This indicates a semblance of increasing trend at this particular juncture, but overall the rates stay relatively stable across the analyzed time series.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Based on current data set, there is no clear evidence of seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate changes. The data does not show any repetitive fluctuations that would suggest a daily or hourly pattern. Any changes noted are sporadic and do not seem to follow a discernible cycle. However, more data might be needed to definitively determine any potential seasonality patterns over a longer period or with higher frequency data.

    3. Outliers and Significant Deviations

    The data does not show any significant outliers or deviations based on the trend. Most of the changes in exchange rates are minor and remain within a close range. This indicates a stable trend with no significant volatility. Possible deviations, such as the slight rise on timestamp "2024-02-23 12:30:03", do not deviate significantly enough from the trend to be considered outliers.

    In conclusion, the MUR exchange rate over this period displayed a highly stable trend with only minor fluctuations. Further data and analysis may be required to identify any long-term trends or recurring patterns.