Surinam Dollar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Introduction

The Given dataset is a time-series data which reflects the hourly changes in the SRD currency exchange rates zoomed in on the particular day of 25th April 2024. The data frequency is approximately every 5 minutes, although there are some irregularities. The task is to analyze and identify the patterns, trends, and anomalies in the provided data set.

Overall Trend

The overall trend of the SRD exchange rate for the day appears to be slightly decreasing. The rate starts at 0.03978, then experienced a gradual decrease, falling as low as 0.0397, and closing at 0.03992. The difference between the opening and closing rates may seem minimal but in the currency exchange market, even a small change can be significant.

Seasonality Trends

When it comes to identifying any seasonal or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, it is less straightforward to identify within a single day's data. Usually, this kind of patterns and trends are easier to identify when data spans across several weeks, months or years, so the typical daily, weekly or monthly patterns could be observed. In this case, since we are working with just one day worth of data and the variations in the data are slight, no clear seasonal trend can be identified.

Outliers and Anomalies

Given the tight range of exchange rates over the period (from 0.0397 to 0.04008), it doesn't appear that there are any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rates differs significantly from the general trend. The exchange rate seems to fluctuate within a narrow range for the whole day. Therefore, no clear anomalies can be spotted which could suggest market shocks or irregular trades.

Conclusion

The SRD exchange rates for the given day followed a slightly decreasing trend without prominent seasonal patterns or significant outliers. While the details of each trade remain unknown, the overall pattern suggests a relatively stable and routine trading day.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

From the time series data provided, the overall trend in exchange rates seems to be showing a slight uptick. The initial SRD exchange rate given at the start of the period was 0.03967, and it appears to increase slowly up to a value of 0.03989 before declining again to 0.03978 towards the end of the period. This suggests a predominantly stable yet fluctuating trend over the sampled period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the granular level at which the data is provided (every five minutes), traditional forms of seasonality (weekly or yearly patterns) are not applicable in this case. The minor fluctuations in data don't clearly indicate any consistent patterns.

Outliers in the Data

At a macro level, there don't appear to be any significant outliers in the data set. Most of the exchange rate values fluctuate between 0.03967 and 0.03989, which is a relatively tight range. However, a more in-depth statistical analysis would be needed to identify if there are any true outliers at a micro level.

Interpreting time series financial data requires careful consideration of the time period in question, the granularity of the data, and the nature of the currency or financial instrument being analyzed. Despite the short duration and granular nature of this data, initial analysis suggests a predominantly stable trend with minor fluctuations, and no significant outliers detected at a macro level.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

Firstly, looking at the data provided, the overall trend of the exchange rates seems to be fairly stable. The rate varies between 0.03966 and 0.0398 over the duration of the dataset. This indicates a relatively small range, suggesting that the exchange rate has been generally stable over the period of time captured by the data. Sometimes, very slight increase or decrease could be noticed, but mostly it seems to remain consistent.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, given the static nature of the data, it's difficult to identify any significant recurring patterns within this specific dataset. The data does not show any noticeable peaks or troughs that might indicate a seasonal effect or recurring pattern. The potencial micro-fluctuations that might occur in shorter timeframes are not obvious from this dataset.

Outliers and Unexpected Instances

From the data provided there are not any immediate apparent outliers with the exchange rate staying within a very close range of values. It seems that the rates at each timestamp are in line with the overall pattern in the data and do not show any unexpected spikes or dips.

Conclusion

Overall, the exchange rates in this dataset appear to be quite stable over time, with no clear trend of increase or decrease in the values. There do not appear to be any seasonal fluctuations or regular patterns in the data. Similarly, there are no noticeable outliers or unexpected rate changes that could suggest any external influences affecting the rates. Lastly, given the nature of these data, caution must be exercised when using it for future forecasting as it seems that the values are rather constant, and any changes might need to be inferred from other market factors not apparent in this dataset.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

The data set essentially spreads over one day (April 22, 2024) and represents the exchange rates (SRD) in 5-minute intervals. Below is the in-depth analysis of the provided data set:

Understanding the Overall Trend

The general trend of the exchange rates appears to be relatively stable. The values fluctuate around the 0.03975 - 0.03976 mark. This shows very slight fluctuations, with the minimum value of the exchange rate at 0.03973 and the maximum value at 0.03983 throughout the day.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the dataset only covers a single day, identifying seasonality or recurring patterns is challenging. However, there are slight rises and falls throughout the dataset, but no significant recurring patterns could be identified within this single day.

Notable Outliers

There are no standout outliers in this dataset. All fluctuations in the exchange rate remain within a very narrow range, with no notable spikes or drops. The data remains mostly consistent, with exchange rates slowly rising and falling throughout the period.

In conclusion, the major essences of this dataset are the relatively stable exchange rate trend and slight fluctuations around the 0.03975 - 0.03976 range. Identifying weekly or monthly patterns requires data that spans over a more extended period, and with this daily data, it's hard to determine any meaningful seasonality or recurring patterns.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

Upon close inspection of the dataset, the overall trend of the SRD exchange rate from March 22, 2024 to April 19, 2024, shows an upward trend. This is signified by an incremental increase in the SRD value from approximately 0.03855 to 0.0398 across the period. Although there are minor fluctuations in the value, the general trend is a rise in the exchange rate.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

While rigorous statistical testing would be required to confirm seasonality, the data does not seem to show clear dependencies on the time of day or specific dates in terms of substantial fluctuations in the exchange rates. Broadly, the time-series data does not show strong cyclical patterns.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

The dataset exhibits relatively stable fluctuations without any large jumps or major outliers. However, there are instances where the exchange rate increases or decreases slightly more than usually observed. For instance, on April 10, 2024, the exchange rate rose from 0.03901 to 0.0394 (at 08:00 and 12:00 respectively), indicating a higher jump than precedently observed. Similarly, on April 18, 2024, the exchange rate increased from 0.03955 to 0.03979 (at 08:00 and 10:00 respectively), again showing a slightly more increased volatility than usually apparent in the data.

Please note: this analysis is of a descriptive nature and does not take into consideration external information or potential predictors which might impact the exchange rate. The performance of the SRD exchange rate may depend on a slew of factors not captured in the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the timestamps between 2024-04-15 to 2024-04-19, the Exchange Rate (SRD) seems to show a general pattern of a slow and steady rise. We start at around 0.0394 and eventually get to approximately 0.0398 towards the end of the period. This positive increment suggests a slight strengthening of the currency over the period observed.

Identifying Seasonality Patterns

Upon analyzing the data, there doesn't seem to be an apparent seasonality pattern within the dataset spanning over the five-day period. The changes in SRD occur throughout all timestamps, which do not suggest a pronounced pattern of rising or falling during certain hours of the day or specific days—although to confirm this, data spanning over a longer period would be necessary.

Noting Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Within the given dataset, there are no glaringly noticeable outliers where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general trend. Minor fluctuations are a characteristic of exchange rate data, originating from the constant changes in the supply and demand dynamics of the corresponding currencies. Such minor variations do not typically constitute outliers unless the change rate is notably substantial within a relatively short period. Here, in the current dataset, all variations seem to be within the common range, indicating no significant outliers to consider.

Consideration of External Factors

As per the request, no specific external factors have been considered during this analysis. Factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports can indeed greatly influence foreign exchange rates, although such factors were not factored into this analysis as per your guideline.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon reviewing the data, the exchange rates appear to be relatively stable throughout the entire period. There is slight volatility, but the rates do not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend. The minimum exchange rate srd value was 0.03970, and the maximum was 0.03988 which indicates a marginal fluctuation within a tight range. Hence, the overall trend is stable with minor oscillations.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the information in this limited dataset, it's difficult to identify any strong seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates on a day-to-day basis. The rate shows minor oscillations which do not follow a distinct or consistent pattern throughout the day. A more extended dataset, spanning multiple years and including a variety of different economic conditions, might provide more insights into this point.

3. Outliers and Atypical Instances

The given exchange rate data does not contain any glaring outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general trend. All the exchange rates data fell well within the normal range of values, and none diverged drastically from that range. This may either indicate that the exchange rate was not exceptionally volatile during the sampled period, or the outliers are simply not present in the given sample dataset, perhaps due to the short time frame.