Armenian Dram Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Upon analyzing the provided data set, the general trend in the exchange rates and particular observations can be discussed as follows:

1. Overall Trend Analysis

The dataset shows an overall stable trend for the exchange rates. The exchange rates observed in the dataset fluctuate in a very narrow range between 0.0035 and 0.00353. While there is a slight variability in rates, it does not considerably alter the overall constant nature of the data. This suggests the exchange rate of the AMD against the given currency didn't experience significant reinventions or fluctuations on this specific date, i.e., on April 25, 2024.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Pattern Analysis

The dataset doesn't seem to indicate any distinct recurring patterns or seasonality in the changes of the exchange rates. With the minor variations occurring without apparent temporal regularity, it is evident that the dataset doesn't exhibit characteristics of seasonality within this 24-hours data.

3. Outlier Analysis

As the data indicates a stable trend with a minimal rate fluctuation range, there doesn't appear to be any outliers or deviations that would disrupt the anticipated trend significantly. The values throughout maintain a relatively stable and similarly valued nature over the entire dataset.

It is important to note that this analysis is entirely based on the provided data and doesn't take into account any potential external influences such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. The absence of noticeable fluctuations or outliers might be different in a more extended and varied data set.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Based on the data provided, the overall trend of the AMD ([Armenian Dram]) exchange rate remained relatively stable throughout the period. The rate initially was consistently at 0.00351, then it fluctuated twice, briefly reaching up to 0.00352 and going back to 0.00351. Hence, there is no clear increasing or decreasing trend, but rather a stable one with minor fluctuations.

Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding the temporal pattern or seasonality in the data, because the sample size of provided data is for a single day, it is impossible to determine a weekly, monthly, or yearly seasonality. Perhaps with more extended times series data covering these periods, we might detect some seasonality or cyclic behavior. However, based on the available data, no known seasonality or regularly recurring patterns can be identified.

Presence of Any Outliers

The exchange rates data seems to be quite consistent: it has minimal variability with the value fluctuating between 0.00351 and 0.00352. Therefore, there do not appear to be any significant outliers in the provided dataset. An outlier in this context would mean a substantial unexpected spike or dip in the AMD exchange rate, which does not seem to occur here.

In conclusion, the provided dataset shows a generally stable exchange rate for AMD within the given timeframe. More extended times series data, possibly spanning multiple weeks, months, or even years, may reveal more notable trends, patterns, or outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

After analysing the provided data, it becomes visible that the overall trend of the exchange rates is remarkably stable. The exchange rate of AMD starts at a value of 0.00349 at the beginning timestamp, and ends at the same rate at the final timestamp. However, it is noticed that there are small fluctuations where the exchange rate goes slightly up to 0.0035 and 0.00351 in a few instances and then gets back to the initial rate of 0.00349.

Seasonality Trends and Recurring Patterns

No discernible seasonality or recurrent patterns was spotted in the dataset. The data does not demonstrate any regular patterns that repeat at specific intervals. Furthermore, because of the consistency of the exchange rates, no weekly or daily patterns could be observed. This may be due to the relatively short time frame represented in the dataset itself.

Outliers and Significant Deviations

The dataset does not seem to contain any significant outliers or drastic deviations. The exchange rate oscillates between 0.00349, 0.0035 and 0.00351 throughout the entire time series, with no significant spikes or drops. This relative stability indicates that during this particular time span, the exchange rate was not influenced by any major financial events or disturbances.

Overall Conclusion

In summary, the dataset of the AMD exchange rate shows a striking degree of consistency over the span of timestamps provided. Despite the minor fluctuations up to 0.00351 and down to 0.00349, the overall rate seems to be largely stable, suggesting a steady state of the respective economic indicators during this period. Despite conducting an extensive analysis, no significant patterns, trends or outliers were detected. This could also mean that the time span covered by the dataset may not be long enough to capture substantial market movements or pattern forming events.

Summary of Last Month

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The overall trend in the exchange rates (AMD) doesn't change much throughout the entire timeframe provided. The exchange rate starts with a value of 0.00349 at 2024-04-22 00:00:02 and ends with approximately the same value of 0.00349 at 2024-04-22 23:55:02. Despite some minor fluctuations, the exchange rate mostly remains stable. A small drop in the exchange rate is observed several times where the value decreases to 0.00348 but it returns back to the initial value. Therefore, it can be said that the trend in the exchange rates given this specific dataset is generally stable.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

With the given timestamps which are in 5-minute intervals, no clear patterns or seasonality are observable. The exchange rates appear to hover around a certain value consistently with only minor deviations.

Outliers and Variances

The dataset does not seem to contain any significant outliers as all the values seem to fall within a very narrow range. There's a mild variance observed when the rate switches between 0.00349 and 0.00348, however, it doesn't deviate beyond these limits. So, these minimal changes can be attributed to the normal fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

External Factors

As per your request, this analysis does not factor in external influences such as market hours, weekends, holidays, or financial news. However, it is crucial to note that in a real-world scenario, these factors significantly influence the fluctuations in exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the dataset provided, it can be noted that the exchange rates for the currency (AMD) have seen a marginal increase over the specified timeline. The value of the currency has increased from 0.00339 to 0.0035. This represents a slight upward trend, although the changes are relatively minute. It should be noted that these changes do not depict any dramatic fluctuations.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality, the data set does not present any clear evidence of a recurring pattern in terms of a specific timeframe. The increments and decrements in the rates seem to be occurring sporadically without a discernible pattern of consistency tied to any specific periods (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.).

Outliers and Significant Divergences

Looking through the dataset, there doesn’t appear any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs substantially from the regular values. Most of the fluctuations in the exchange rates are minor and do not deviate sharply from the observed trend. This indicates a relatively stable exchange rate over the observed period.

Please note, this analysis does not take into account any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the occurrence of any significant financial news or reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

Upon reviewing the data, it is apparent that the exchange rates of AMD have been exhibiting a slight increase over the given period. Starting at 0.00347 on 2024-04-15 1:00:02, it tended to increase slightly to 0.00351 by 2024-04-19 07:00:03. While there were few periods where the exchange rate remained constant and a couple of minor decreases, the overall trend suggests a modest increment in rates.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Detecting seasonality or recurring patterns in time series data requires an in-depth analysis of a more extended range of data. With this provided dataset, there doesn't appear to be patterns detailed enough to confirm any strong seasonality or recurring pattern. Nevertheless, a minor fluctuating pattern can be perceived, where the exchange rate is somewhat stable for a few hours before it slightly ascends.

3. Identification of Outliers

Upon examining the dataset, there are no substantial outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend. The mild fluctuations that do exist seem to be part of the general ebb and flow of the exchange rates.

Extra Notes

• It is essential to bear in mind that these findings are premised solely on the provided data, and for a more detailed and comprehensive analysis, a more extensive data set encompassing different days, weeks, and several months would be more helpful.
• The observations do not regard external factors such as market open/close times, weekends/holidays, or the release of crucial financial news.
• Note that this analysis does not create any projections for future exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From the provided dataset, it is evident that the exchange rates remain relatively stable for most of the recorded timestamps. The rate stayed at 0.00347 for a prolonged period, indicating a steady state in the market. There were minor fluctuations, an increase was seen at approximately the 06:25:02 timestamp where the rate increased to 0.00349 and peaking at 0.00351 at around the 07:00:03 timestamp. There was a slight decrease observed again, settling at around the 0.00350 mark past the 07:30:02 timestamp.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In the recorded data, there seem to be no clear signs of seasonality or recurring patterns. The fluctuations in the exchange rate were minimal and did not reveal any identifiable pattern. The nature of the exchange rates in this dataset is sporadic with no frequency or pattern in their changes which would indicate seasonality.

Outliers in the Exchange Rate

Based on the trend, there were no significant outliers identified in the data. The exchange rate fluctuated in a very tight range between 0.00346 and 0.00351. This range of fluctuation is too narrow to determine significant outlier values based on the given data. It appears that the general trend was maintained meticulously over the given time period.

Other Observations

The dataset provided does not indicate the reasons for the slight increases or decreases in the exchange rate, therefore, it is hard to ascertain the reason behind those shifts. It is advisable to correlate any significant changes with external factors like market demographics or geopolitical events to better understand the cause of these fluctuations.

It's also notable that data for certain times seems to be missing (e.g., from 05:55 to 06:25). The missing data might cause some level of bias and may have inadvertent influence on the analysis results. Hence, it would be suggested to ensure complete data for future analyses