Nakfa Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon analysis, the overall trend of the exchange rates for the provided dataset appears to be generally stable with slight fluctuations. The maximum exchange rate seen in the data is 0.09151 and the minimum exchange rate is 0.09101. Although there are some small variations in the exchange rate, there is no obvious trend towards a long-term increase or decrease in the value. Instead, the exchange rate mostly stays within the range of 0.0091 to 0.0915 throughout the period.

2. Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

Given the limited timestamp ranging only over a single day, it is difficult to accurately identify any definitive seasonal or recurring patterns in this dataset. Generally, in financial time series data, seasonality could be observed over longer periods such as quarterly, monthly or weekly. However, this dataset does not indicate any clear seasonality or cyclical patterns. There may be shorter period fluctuations happening intra-day, but additional data across multiple days would provide a clearer picture.

3. Outliers in the Dataset

An outlier in a dataset is an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values. In the provided dataset, there were no prominent outliers where the exchange rate differed significantly from the general range of values (0.09101 - 0.09151). The values seem to be encompassed within a narrow range portraying a relatively stable data without any significant variations or spikes in the exchange rate.

Lastly, as requested, external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports were not considered in this analysis as we are dealing with a single day data. For a more comprehensive analysis, including consideration of these factors, data over a longer period would be necessary. Also, as notified no forecast for future rates was generated.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

After a careful analysis of the dataset, it can be observed that the overall trend for the exchange rate is relatively stable. This is evidenced by the slight fluctuations in the exchange rate, varying from a minimum of 0.09108 to a maximum of 0.09153. Despite minor dips and peaks, the rate generally hovers around 0.0913.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Pattern Analysis

With respect to the seasonality or recurring patterns within the given time frame, it's hard to ascertain without a full cyclical duration, including data for the whole year or for multiple years. However, during the examined period, there doesn't appear to be a distinct repeating or cyclic pattern. This suggests that other external factors may be influencing the exchange rate rather than it being bound by a seasonal cycle.

3. Outliers Analysis

Considering the stable trend and lack of a strong cyclic pattern in the provided dataset, the presence of any significant outliers is correspondingly limited. The exchange rate stays mostly within a narrow range and no significant spikes or drops, which would be considered as an outlier, are observed in the dataset within the provided time period.

In conclusion, while the exchange rate data appears to remain relatively stable with slight fluctuations within the given time frame, a more comprehensive analysis would require a larger and more varied dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

Starting from a broad perspective, the ERN exchange rate over the provided dataset shows minor fluctuations, although a significant dip in the exchange rate can be observed in the latter part of the dataset. The initial starting prices are hovering around 0.09132 ERN and gradually increase towards the peak value of 0.09142 ERN. However, towards the end of the data series, the exchange rate experiences a downward trend, with the rates declining to the lowest of 0.09104 ERN.

2. Seasonality or Patterns

As far as the seasonal pattern is concerned, no significant seasonal fluctuation in the ERN exchange rate within the single day is observable from the given data. The exchange rates demonstrate random walk characteristics, wherein the rates fluctuate around a steady mean value, without any noticeable repeated patterns. It is important to note that the observation period might not be extensive enough to detect longer-term seasonal patterns.

3. Outliers in Exchange Rates

The dataset appears to be quite stable without any evident outliers. The data values fall within a very narrow range and do not show jumps or significant unexpected price movements. However, a deeper statistical analysis may be required to identify any subtle outliers not evident through a casual review of the data.

Note: As per your instructions, the analysis was conducted without considering external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Therefore, the analysis is purely based on the provided exchange data without incorporating any external environmental factors.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From an initial analysis of the time-series data, the overall trend of the exchange rates shows small fluctuations, remaining within a very narrow range (0.09128 - 0.09166). It does not indicate a clear pattern of general increase or decrease. The variations, while significant for high volume transactions, are relatively small from a macroeconomic perspective. There are no clear periods of significant appreciation or depreciation of the currency over the given timeframe.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

With regards to seasonality or recurring patterns, it appears that there are minor fluctuations throughout the given time frame. However, due to the small range of these fluctuations and the lack of more extensive data, it's challenging to identify any definitive or strongly recurring patterns. It could be beneficial to analyze more data points spread over a longer period or different intervals to definitively gauge any seasonality or recurring patterns.

Outliers and Significant Instances

Based on the data given, there are no significant outliers where the exchange rate differs notably from the average. The values seem to fluctuate around a common central point without substantial divergence, indicating a relatively steady exchange rate. Even if there are any minimal outliers, they do not deviate substantially from the overall trend or create significant peaks or troughs.

Final Note

Please note that this analysis solely focused on historical price action and did not include the impacts of macroeconomic conditions, external events, or market trading hours. Any comprehensive forecasting or trading model would ideally incorporate these additional factors.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The exchange rates have experienced different patterns over the provided timestamps. Initially, there is a slight increase in the rates from 0.09042 on 2024-03-22 to a peak of about 0.0907 on 2024-03-27. There is then a drop in the rates, reaching a trough around 0.08989 on 2024-04-04. This sequence suggests a volatile period for the exchange rate. Also, an increasing trend can be seen to commence from around 0.09018 on 2024-04-01, reaching a high of 0.09189 on 2024-04-12. Nonetheless, it's essential to note that there is no constant upward or downward trend in the exchange rates throughout the observed period. The rates have been fluctuating, which is characteristic of financial markets.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

There does not seem to be any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the given exchange rate data within the available time frame. However, it's important to note that assessing seasonality typically involves longer-term data and sophisticated statistical methods. Therefore, any potential patterns might not be visible within this limited scope.

Outliers in the Exchange Rate

A few potential outliers can be observed in the provided data. For instance, there is a noticeable spike in the exchange rate on 2024-04-10, starting at 0.09099 and reaching up to 0.09128. This sudden spike significantly differs from the relatively stable values before and after this day, thus making it a potential outlier. Moreover, a little dip in the rates on 2024-04-03 when it touched 0.09012 from 0.09047 can be considered as a potential outlier. Nevertheless, given the nature of exchange rates, such fluctuations could also represent normal volatility.

Please note that this analysis provides only a basic understanding of the trends, patterns and outliers in the given time-series exchange rate data. A deeper understanding would generally require more complex analysis, using various financial and econometric models. Also, it would typically take into account external influences like economic indicators, geopolitical events, and financial news announcements – which the current analysis does not.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend

Before discussing the overall trend, it's important to understand that the exchange rate is sensitive to a wide array of micro and macroeconomic indicators and events, so the variability should be considered as normal. From the timestamped dataset provided, it seems the ERN exchange rate from 2024-04-15 to 2024-04-19 has remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations. There are small increases and decreases in the rate, however, overall, the deviation from the mean rate is marginal. As we can observe, the maximum value is approximately 0.09219 and the minimum is 0.09154, a variation of less than 0.001. This suggests that during the timeframe under observation, the exchange rate has maintained a conspicuously stable trend.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Based on the provided dataset, discerning seasonality or recurring trends in data at an hourly interval over just five days is inherently challenging. Since the data does not cover sufficient temporal periodicity (e.g., monthly, annually, etc.), the detection of seasonal patterns may not be reliable. Nonetheless, no evident hourly patterns could be identified from the analysis of this data - the exchange rate seems to be following a random walk without any identifiable pattern during different hours of the day.

3. Identification of Outliers

Considering the fact that the data shows quite marginal fluctuations, there hasn't been any noticeable outlier in the dataset. The exchange rates have been largely stable and remain within the narrow range of 0.09154 to 0.09219. As a result, no particular transaction stands out as an extreme deviation or an 'outlier'. It’s critical to remember though that the identification of outliers depends greatly on the chosen method of analysis and the context of the overall data. Moreover, in the real world, what might be defined as an outlier in this context may be very normal for exchange rate data due to the inherent volatility associated with financial markets.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

My analysis starts with cleaning and formatting the data for further study. I have assumed that each timestamp value follows the date and each ern value, following the date. The data points were identified and divided into separate units. Furthermore, it is assumed that these are five-minute intervals.

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

In general, the overall trend of the exchange rates seems to be fairly stable. The values largely fluctuate around 0.0918 with no sustained increase or decrease over the entire period shown. There might be slight fluctuations in every 5-minute intervals, but the rate generally hovers around this mark. This suggests that the exchange rate is more or less constant in the short run.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given that this dataset covers a limited period of approx. 24 hours, it might not be long enough to identify clear seasonal or recurring patterns. Forex markets are heavily influenced by a multitude of factors, making day-to-day predictability and pattern identification quite challenging. However, considering these limitations, no significant recurring pattern can be identified in this short dataset. The values do not show any particular upward or downward trend recurring at specific times which suggests there is no specific intra-day seasonality in the data.

3. Outliers

An outlier analysis does not reveal any extreme fluctuations/outliers in this data, as the exchange rate tends to fluctuate around a mean value with a relatively small standard deviation. There are some minor dips and spikes throughout the periods yet nothing that can be considered a significant statistical outlier in the context of this dataset.

In conclusion, while the data provided offers valuable insights into the stability of the exchange rates within this particular 24-hour period, it does not display strong trends or patterns that could be used for reliable future forecasting. This being said, it provides a solid foundation for further and more detailed analysis, provided data over longer periods could be procured.