Nakfa Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend in the exchange rates over the period indicated by the data series can be described as relatively stable, but with a slight uptick over time. The data starts with a rate of 0.0905 and ends with a slightly higher rate of 0.09047. While these numbers do not represent a significant change, they nevertheless signal a gradual increase in the ERN exchange rate. There are minor fluctuations in value over time, suggesting a lively and dynamic exchange market, but these variations do not disrupt the general upward trend.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Within the given data set, it was not possible to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes in exchange rates. The variations are largely minor and do not adhere to an apparent repeating pattern. However, further investigations using more granular and extensive data may provide valuable insights about potential seasonality or cyclical patterns. It is also possible that external factors not included in this data set (e.g. geopolitical events, economic policy changes) may also influence any underlying patterns.

    Noting any Outliers

    The rates mostly range between 0.0903 and 0.0906, representing a small range of fluctuations. There are minor deviations from this range occasionally, indicating instances of slightly lower or higher exchange rates. Given the overall consistency in the exchange rates' values and the close proximity these points are to the normal range, these instances can be considered as potential outliers. Nonetheless, these rates do not differ significantly from what is generally expected in this active and dynamic market and are still relatively close to the median rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The exchange rate appears to have experienced a slight increase in value over the time period shown. The rate began at around 0.09032 and ended at approximately 0.09048, suggesting a gentle uptrend. However, the rate stayed quite stable during this period, with minor fluctuations, since the range of rate differences was very small (about 0.0003).

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Analyzed data, there does not appear to be any pronounced seasonal or recurring patterns of change in the exchange rates. The fluctuations in exchange rates throughout the day are relatively stable with no clear pattern of highs or lows at specific times. However, there's slight variations could be associated with the normal volatility seen in currency markets.

    Outliers and Key Observations

    While reviewing the data, there doesn't seem to be any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs radically from the overall trending direction. The fluctuations in the exchange rate generally remained within a consistent range, illustrating a relatively low volatility during the observed period. There doesn't seem to be any major anomalies, which likely indicates the absence of major events that could have significantly impacted the exchange rate.

    In summary, the analysis of this ERN exchange rate time series data has helped us to understand the slight increase in the exchange rate trend over the period, and the overall stability of the rate with minimal volatility. As always, real-time analysis and reporting of currency exchange rates requires persistent monitoring with robust analytical techniques to factor in all potential currency influencer aspects.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Data Analysis

    Understand the overall trends

    The dataset provided is a time series data for the exchange rates dated 26th February 2024. On initial analysis, it appears the exchange rates are somewhat stable from the given dataset. The exchange rate starts at 0.09007 at midnight and ends at 0.09002 by the end of the day. Although there seems to be minor fluctuations throughout the day, there is not a significant increase or decrease trend observed over the period shown.

    Identify seasonality or recurring patterns

    As per the dataset provided, it is difficult to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. The difference between the highest (0.09019) and lowest value (0.09) is not significantly large, pointing towards a stable exchange rate with only minor fluctuations. For a more accurate pattern analysis, we ideally need a longer period of data spanning over multiple months or years for different time frames (such as hourly, daily, weekly).

    Identify Outliers

    Within this dataset, there are no noticeable outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend. Throughout the day, the exchange rate remains within a tightly constrained range (between 0.09 to 0.09019), suggesting a relatively stable rate with no large spikes or drops. Again, it is important to note that a larger dataset might reveal outliers that aren't obvious in this one-day time frame.

    Please note that for a deeper understanding of the patterns, factors such as the opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports could have an impact on exchange rates. While this analysis does not consider outside factors, understanding them would provide a broader and richer perspective on the behavior of the exchange rates.

    It is also important to note that while this analysis offers a general overview of the exchange rates seen on this particular date, it should not be used for forecasting purposes.

    This analysis is purely based on the data provided and does not consider any external data or events. For a more comprehensive analysis, a larger and more diverse data set would be beneficial. This could involve exchange rate data over a longer period and during different types of events.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The overall change in exchange rates of ERN for the given time-period suggests a fairly stable range. Looking at the data, the exchange rates oscillate from around 0.089 to 0.090, indicating minor fluctuations. However, there isn't a significant rise or decline in the exchange rates during the covered time-period. The data manifests a seemingly steady trend, a rather horizontal orientation, suggesting stability in the exchange rate over this period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    If we look at the data, there are somewhat recurring patterns, but they do not seem to be very strong signals of seasonality. The fluctuations in exchange rates do not appear to consistently rise or fall in a particular period (such as daily or weekly). There may be small bouts of increases and decreases; however, these do not appear to follow a strict, predictable, or recurring pattern. Therefore, it can be inferred that the exchange rate of ERN, during the given timeframe, doesn't show significant seasonality.

    Outliers and Volatility

    Based on the given dataset, outliers are not readily observable in the data. The ERN exchange rate is primarily contained within a tight range, and no significant spikes or troughs are noted that would suggest major volatility or outliers. This general lack of volatility suggests that the ERN exchange rates were quite stable in the assessed period.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, the given time-series data of ERN exchange rate demonstrates a steady trend, without noticeable recurring seasonal patterns or notable outliers. This indicates a period of relative stability for the ERN exchange rate for this specific time frame. It should be noted, however, that the lack of identifiable patterns or significant trends does not preclude the possibility of influencing factors not being considered in this brief analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Upon analyzing the data, it can be observed that the ERN (Eritrean Nakfa) exchange rate seems to largely maintain an upwardly stable trend during the period displayed. The initial recorded value is 0.08982, and it climbs gradually to reach its peak at 0.09021, followed by a slight dip towards the end of the period, leaving the final recorded value at 0.09001.

    Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    While performing a granular analysis of the data, it's clear that any noticeable diurnal (within a day) or weekly (day-of-week) seasonal impacts are difficult to discern because of the semi-erratic nature of the values. However, certain subtle patterns can be seen. For instance, there are small crests and troughs at different intervals suggesting that the data may have intraday seasonality, most likely reflective of daily trading sessions. However, deficits in the data make it difficult to identify recurring patterns with firm certainty.

    Outliers Identification

    Outliers remain undetected using the provided data as exchange rates are relatively stable within a compact range, and no values can be seen that dramatically break from the overall trend or that stand invincibly above or beneath other recorded values. The ERN exchange rate seems to have maintained a range of 0.08966 - 0.09021 during the period of examination. To have a more precise account of potential outliers, it would be helpful to utilize a larger dataset or apply specific statistical methods.

    Please note that this analysis is based purely on the provided time-series data and it does not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. It is also devoid of any future rate predictions.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

    Taking a closer look at the dataset of ERN exchange rates, one could observe that the rates have largely maintained a fair degree of stability throughout the timeframe in question. They hover around the 0.089-0.090 range and show relatively minor oscillations within it. The ERN exchange rate starts at 0.08987 and ends at 0.09001, displaying no apparent overall upward or downward trend over the period. However, it is noteworthy that there are slight fluctuations, which indicate minor periods of both, increases and decreases.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns:

    Within the dataset provided, due to the short timeframe (one day) and the minute-by-minute rate updates, it's difficult to confidently discern any seasonality or recurring patterns. There don't seem to be clear cyclical changes during this single day worth of data, as one might expect over longer periods (days, months, or years). However, without additional data on a longer time scale, it is hard to say definitively whether there is seasonality or not.

    3. Noting any outliers:

    Upon analysis, the volatility of ERN exchange rates appears to be fairly low within this dataset. There are no prolonged periods or specific points where the exchange rate drastically fluctuates, and no rates that could be classified as 'outliers'. Indeed, the highest rate is 0.09011 and the lowest is 0.08976, leaving a very small range considering the number of data points, which indicates high data density and low dispersion. Therefore, taking into account the high frequency of data collection (every 5 minutes), the dataset does not seem to contain any significant outliers.