Jordanian Dinar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    Analysis of Time Series Data for Exchange Rates

    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall tendency of the exchange rate data can be best understood by taking a bird's eye view of the data set, visually represented as a plot function of time. When looking at this data, it appears that the exchange rates initially remain relatively stable, with minor fluctuations. However, towards the middle and end of the dataset, we can see an increasing trend. The exchange rates show some significant rises and falls, but in general, it trends upwards. It's important to remember that this perception could change with a more granular or extended dataset.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    When looking at the data, there doesn't appear to be a strong seasonal trend or recurring pattern over the time duration shown in the provided dataset. This might be due to short duration of the dataset which may not be enough to capture monthly, quarterly, or yearly patterns that typically ail to financial data. Another contribution to this lack of seasonality might be because exchange rates are influenced by numerous unpredictable global events beyond season-based factors.

    3. Outliers

    While identifying exact numbers will require a statistical analysis outside the scope of this request, some possible outliers are noticeable. There are several points where significant jumps in value happen, which are not in line with the surrounding data points. Typically, these will be considered 'outliers'. These outliers can be the result of a number of factors including market events, geopolitical news, or simply errors in data recording and gathering.

    Conclusively, the rapidly changing landscape of financial markets makes it difficult to predict long-term trends accurately and quantify the numerous factors influencing exchange rates. However, careful analysis, constant scrutiny of the data can help make better-informed decisions.

Summary of Yesterday

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    Overall trend analysis:

    The data for the exchange rates provided shows a generally increasing pattern. Initially starting at 1.91093, the value ends at 1.91428, indicating that the JOD has been slightly appreciating over the period depicted. The data does, however, exhibit volatility with regular fluctuations in its value throughout the time span. Even though the overall movement is appreciation, there are intermittent periods of depreciation as well.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

    It is difficult to conclusively identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the dataset without having additional information regarding the specific days and months these data points belong to. However, through visual check, it doesn't seem to have a regular or clear pattern occurring at consistent intervals. There are frequent oscillations occurring almost on an hourly basis, possibly indicating the interplay of supply and demand forces on the exchange rate. Moreover, without knowledge of specific external events or factors affecting the JOD, it's challenging to explain these fluctuations purely on the basis of seasonal influences.

    Noting Outliers:

    With respect to outliers, the data does not show extreme jumps or falls that stand out from the overall pattern of volatilities. The highest value is 1.91879 and the lowest is 1.91065 which do not differentiate significantly from other data points. However, to provide a definitive identification of outliers, a robust statistical analysis, like the z-score or the Interquartile Range (IQR) method, should be performed.

    Considerations:

    The analysis performed here is completely based on the numbers provided in the dataset and doesn't consider any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news, or reports which could have potentially significant impacts on the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon close examination of the data, it appears that the exchange rate tends to fluctuate within a narrow range from 1.90391 to 1.90783. The rates do not show a consistent increasing or decreasing trend, but rather, vary around similar levels throughout the designated period. There's no discernible upward or downward linear trend.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    Regarding seasonality, it is not immediately apparent due to the high frequency (every 5-10 minutes) of the data. Generally, if there were recurring 24-hour patterns, for instance, we might expect to see such daily cyclical patterns. However, given the tight range in which the rates fluctuate, any seasonality that might exist is not immediately apparent in the current dataset. Thus, it's recommended to get more long-spanned data for a credible understanding of seasonality.

    3. Noting any outliers

    In terms of outliers, the range of our data set is quite narrow. The minimum rate is 1.90391 and the maximum rate is 1.90783. There do not appear to be any outliers in the data, as the range of rates remains relatively stable and does not show any extreme highs or lows. The exchange rate remains within close proximity of the mean throughout the data series.

Summary of Last Week

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    Here is your requested analysis in HTML format:

    Trend Analysis

    From the given dataset, it is observable that the exchange rate does not show an exact clear trend of increase or decrease over the time period covered. Rather, the rates seem to fluctuate within a specific range. The lowest value encountered in the dataset is 1.88377, and the highest value is 1.91582. This fluctuating nature of the exchange rate could be due to several factors such as variations in trade volumes, international economic events, interest rates, etc.

    Seasonality Analysis

    In terms of seasonality, it's difficult to confidently identify any specific patterns in this dataset due to the multiple daily entries without having more specific knowledge of the market mechanisms related to the currency pair. However, it is noticeable that often, major changes in the exchange rate do not happen in succession, indicating a correction or counter-movement phase after noticeable rises or falls. Indeed, this can be indicative of daily trading behaviors which often see a bustle of trading activity during specific hours leading to significant price swings.

    Outliers Analysis

    At a broad glance, no massive outliers are instantly visible in this dataset. The exchange rate seems to follow a reasonably predictable pattern of fluctuation. The highest value at 1.91582 doesn't seem to deviate significantly from the general range of fluctuations. The lowest value (1.88377) also falls within the same scope. However, without a formal outlier detection method or a more detailed statistical analysis, this conclusion is primarily qualitative.

    In conclusion, this data provides a glimpse into the fluctuating nature of the JOD exchange rate. The dataset underscores the inherent volatility in currency exchange rates, even without considering the multitude of factors like market times, weekends, holidays, and key financial news events.

Summary of Yesterday

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    HTML OUTPUT:

    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Looking at the dataset, it appears that there is a gradual increase in the JOD exchange rate from 1.90006 on 2024-02-19 to 1.9041 on 2024-02-23. This suggests a slight appreciation of the JOD currency over this period, although there are minor fluctuations up and down within the trend. Please note this analysis only considers the overall trend and there could be other factors impacting the rate that are not covered in this dataset.

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

    Given the short timeframe of the dataset, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. A longer time series is typically required for robust analysis of seasonal trends. However, it can be observed that the JOD exchange rate experienced some minor fluctuations during the trading hours, which might suggest some form of intraday volatility.

    Noting any outliers

    The highest JOD exchange rate in the dataset is 1.90848 at timestamp 2024-02-21 03:00:02 and the lowest is 1.89704 at timestamp 2024-02-22 03:00:02. These rates could possibly be considered outliers, as they deviate significantly from the overall observed range of values. However, given the relatively small scale of these deviations, it's likely they reflect normal fluctuations rather than anomalous events. In-depth analysis would require statistical testing or comparison to additional data.

Summary of Yesterday

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    Analysis

    The sample dataset shows exchange rate data for each respective timestamp in terms of JOD (Jordanian Dinar), specifically the change in its value over time.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend of this data set indicates a marginal increase in the exchange rate over the period in question. The rate begins at 1.90127 and ends at 1.9043 with intermittent fluctuations throughout the sequence. Although not perfectly linear, this upward movement signifies a possible appreciation in the value of JOD during this period.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in time-series data requires a well-spread sample dataset across a significant timeline, preferably covering an entire recurring cycle (like a year). However, with the brief snapshot of data provided, recognizing any concrete patterns or seasonality isn't feasible. The data varies irregularly, with periods of escalation followed by periods of contraction, without any discernible recurring pattern.

    3. Highlights of Outliers

    The data appears to have a number of minor fluctuations in value, which are ordinary for foreign exchange markets due to the continuous trading of currencies worldwide. There is no clear occurrence of a value that significantly deviates from the range covered by the rest of the data points. Therefore, no substantive outliers were observed in this particular dataset.

    In Conclusion

    Based on analyzing the provided dataset:

    • The overall trend of the exchange rate has seen a slight increase.
    • No identifiable recurring patterns or seasonality could be observed due to the limited temporal scope of the data.
    • No significant outliers were identified that deviated from the general range of variation in the exchange rate.

    Please note, this analysis is based solely on the dataset provided. There may be other factors at play, including market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports, that might affect the exchange rate, which has not been considered in this analysis.