Boliviano Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    Overall Trend Analysis of Exchange Rates

    The dataset provided demonstrates small fluctuations in the BOB exchange rate over the given time period. The recorded exchange rate seems to oscillate between approximately 0.1959 and 0.1969, with an average exchange rate near 0.1963. There doesn't appear to be a specific pattern of continuous increase or decrease throughout the time period. The exchange rate shows an essentially random walk type property, which is quite typical for exchange rates where changes from period to period are not predictable.

    Pattern & Seasonality in Exchange Rates

    In review of the given time series data, there isn't any evident seasonality or specific recurring pattern in the exchange rates. The value of the exchange rate at any given point in time does not appear to depend highly on prior values and no specific trend structure is discernible from the data set.

    Outliers & Notable Points in Exchange Rates

    • The lowest value of the exchange rate recorded in this dataset is 0.1958 and the highest is 0.19694.
    • There are spikes and dips observable, but these remain within the aforementioned range.
    • The largest drop in the exchange rate appears to occur between 02:15:01 and 06:20:01 where it drops from about 0.19685 to 0.19658. This can be assumed as an outlier as it is a significant deviation from its adjacent values.
    • In conclusion, the BOB exchange rate data provided shows small fluctuations within a certain range, lacks noticeable seasonality, and contains a few unexpected spikes and dips. It's worth noting that without considering external factors, such as market conditions, economic policies, and global events, this analysis merely provides a basic understanding of how exchange rate values have changed over the time period specified in the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The overall trend shows a small but steady increase in the exchange rates. The rate starts around 0.1953 at the beginning of the provided period and ends around 0.19665. This suggests a general upward trend, indicating that the currency in question (BOB) has been appreciating against the dominant currency during this timeframe.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    There appears to be some cyclicality in the data, suggesting daily patterns. The data shows a repeating pattern of the exchange rates gradually increasing and then decreasing slightly within a day. However, it is important to note that further analysis is needed with a larger dataset to get a clear picture of seasonal or weekly patterns.

    Outliers Analysis

    From the given dataset, there seems to be one noticeable outlier where the exchange rate jumps from around 0.19571 to 0.19658. However, these occasional jumps followed by a stabilization phase seem to be part of the overall upward trend within the data, and they might not be considered as outliers in the exchange rates' context. The identification of outliers in financial time series data can sometimes be tricky, as what may seem as an outlier could just be a result of market volatility.

    It's important to cross-verify these outcomes with other data sources to make a more informed prediction. Also, correlating these observations with major world events during this period may provide more insight into the causes behind these patterns and deviations.

    Note

    This is a basic analysis of the data and the patterns within it. Detailed statistical tests could provide more accurate information about the trend and seasonality. Also, the analysis doesn't take into account factors such as changes in market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. These are significant factors that affect exchange rates and could add much depth and reliability to the analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    As per the data, the exchange rate of BOB has demonstrated minor fluctuations over the course of the day. The rate started at 0.1957 and ended at 0.19537 on the day. There is a minor overall down-trend, but the range of exchange rate is quite narrow, adding fluctuates roughly between the values of 0.195 and 0.196. Despite some spikes and drops, the overarching trend seems to be fairly stable, indicating a relatively stable market condition for this specific day.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    It's difficult to definitively determine seasonality in the patterns as the data is only for a one-day time span. However, no significant recurring patterns can be identified within the provided dataset. The exchange rate appears to fluctuate randomly within a small range. To get a more accurate understanding of this factor, data spanning across multiple days, weeks, or months would be necessary so that it may include different business cycles and possibly determine weekly or monthly patterns.

    3. Identifying Outliers

    The exchange rate values provided are very close to each other, less than a cent difference in most cases. In this type of data, it is very difficult to determine an outlier as the rate does not appear to differ significantly at any given time. There are slight spikes and dips, however, these are not significant enough to be considered as outliers. Every value appears consistent with the overall minor descending trend of the data.

    Conclusion:

    In conclusion, while there are minor fluctuations observed in the exchange rate of BOB, there is a stable trend during the day span of this data. No discernable recurring patterns or outliers have been identified, and a more thorough time-series analysis might require data across a greater time span. It's important to mention that these conclusions are drawn purely on numerical data provided, and external factors which may potentially affect exchange rates have not been taken into consideration in this analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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    Here's the HTML-formatted output I'm able to provide based on your request:

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The dataset indicates a fluctuating trend in the exchange rates over the observed period. A close examination shows a range of 0.19 to 0.196, showing both increases and decreases in the exchange rates. There doesn't seem to be a clear and steady pattern of increase or decrease, hinting at the fact that the rates remained relatively stable with small fluctuations over the period shown.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Upon analysing the dataset, no clear seasonality or recurring pattern is observed. The exchange rates seem to be fluctuating randomly rather than following a predictable seasonal trend. More comprehensive statistical analysis like autocorrelation analysis might be required to identify any subtle seasonality pattern that might not be easily discernible from a direct observation of the data.

    Noting any Outliers

    The dataset does not appear to have any significant outliers. The fluctuations in the exchange rates are within a relatively tight band. It's also important to note that in financial data, what may initially appear to be an outlier could also be an important event (e.g., a major economic announcement, release of a financial report, etc.). However, as per the request to not consider such events in the analysis, it is concluded that there are no significant outliers in the dataset.

    External Factors

    Following the guidelines provided, this analysis does not take into account external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends or holidays, or the release of major financial news or reports. The understanding is based purely on the historical exchange rate data provided.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

    The trend in the bob exchange rates from the given dataset seems to increase and decrease but in an overall narrow range. A specific value cannot be assigned to the increase or decrease as the values are relatively close to each other and there is no drastic increase or decrease. Therefore, it can be said that the overall trend of these exchange rates can be considered relatively stable over the period shown.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    With respect to the time series data provided, a clear seasonality or recurring pattern is not distinctly discernable. Since the variations appear to be random and the fact that the data does not exhibit considerable fluctuations, it is difficult to establish a certain pattern or determine any recurring sequence in the exchange rates. An in-depth analysis or more granular data might be needed to identify if there are any minute seasonality changes which are not apparent in the provided data.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    Upon observation, most data points range between roughly 0.195 and 0.196. There seem to be a few values that are marginally lower or higher. However, these can not be considered significant outliers as these figures do not appear to deviate greatly from the average exchange rate across the analyzed period. A statistical analysis would traditionally be required to identify and confirm outliers, but based on an initial look at the data, no notable outliers have been identified.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The exchange rates provided in the dataset appear to have subtle changes throughout the given time period. The value of the bob exchange rate seems to fluctuate mildly between 0.19441 and 0.19557. Based on the dataset, it would appear that the exchange rate has a generally slow increasing trend throughout this period. Significant drops or increases are not very prevalent, indicating a relatively stable rate with slight increases over the duration of the time series.

    2. Identifying any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Upon examining the data, there does not seem to be any clear seasonal or recurrent pattern for this particular dataset. While there are periodic increases and decreases in the exchange rates, they do not show a consistent pattern that would indicate seasonality. The data would require a more extensive timescale for clear identification of seasonal or recurring patterns. The relatively short duration of the dataset makes it difficult to identify any such trends.

    3. Noting any Outliers that Differ Significantly

    There does not appear to be any significant outliers in the provided dataset, which further indicates stability in the exchange rates throughout this time period. One slightly noticeable spike occurs around the 2024-02-23 06:20:02 timestamp, where the exchange rate suddenly jumps to 0.19505, but it quickly decreases to its stable range. However, this slight change does not deviate significantly from the main trend of the exchange rates, positioning it within the regular fluctuation range rather than considering it as a substantial outlier.

    To reiterate, with the provided data, it was observed that the BOB exchange rate shows minor fluctuation and generally stable trend. No clear seasonality or recurrent patterns were found. Further, apart from small rises and falls the data did not exhibit any significant outliers.