Turkish Lira Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be relatively stable throughout the time series data. From a glance at the data, the TRY exchange rate stays within a range of 0.0430 to 0.0435 and there appears to be minor fluctuations between these values, however, no sustained or significant increase or decrease is evident. This indicates that as far as this data presents, the exchange rate has maintained a level of constancy over the specified period.

    Identifying Seasonality and Patterns

    Regarding patterns and seasonality, a more detailed analysis would be required to identify nuanced temporal patterns within this data. However, based on the data provided understanding of seasonality is somewhat limited due to the lack of long-term data spanning the course of multiple years. In general terms, the exchange rates do not appear to exhibit a clearcut common pattern within this particular session of provided timestamps.

    Noting Outliers

    Identifying outliers in data helps provide understanding of major external influences or mistakes in data recording. In this dataset, there don't seem to be any drastic fluctuations that could be identified as outliers. For instance, the largest single jump in exchange rate value happens from 0.04322 to 0.04336. Although this is the greatest change observed, it is still quite close to other values and doesn't carry the characteristics of an outlier which typically would significantly depart from neighboring values. Therefore, no outliers can be confidently identified within this dataset based on the presented values.

    Please note, to conduct a more thorough analysis, the utilization of statistical measures and potentially visualization methods would be recommended.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Using the time-series provided for the exchange rates (TRY), the following observations can be made:

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The TRY exchange rate shows a very slight increasing trend over the period for which data is provided. The increase is minor but consistent, emerging due to a series of small fluctuations throughout the duration.

    Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rate Changes

    Based on the data, it appears that the exchange rate does not exhibit any significant seasonality or regular patterns. Instead, it is more characterized by a series of small, minor fluctuations within a particular range and a small overall positive trend.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    No significant outliers were detected in the exchange rate data. The rate seems to mostly fluctuate within a very narrow band, and there are no instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from this pattern or band. To identify any significant outliers, a more detailed statistical analysis might be required.

    Please note that the provided analysis is purely based on the historical exchange rate data provided and does not take into account external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports which can influence exchange rates in real-world situations. Additionally, this analysis does not aim to generate any future forecasts. It is, therefore, recommended to use this analysis in conjunction with other economic and financial indicators for comprehensive decision-making.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend

    The overall trend in the exchange rate between 2024-02-26 00:00:02 and 2024-02-26 23:55:02 shows a slight depreciation of the TRY exchange rate. The rate starts from 0.04345 and ends at 0.04337, with few fluctuations in between. However, small changes in exchange rates can be significant when large sums of money are involved.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The exchange rate data does not appear to display a clear seasonality or recurring pattern within the time frame given. The fluctuations seem to occur without a consistent and repeating time-based pattern. However, more data from a longer time frame would be needed to conclusively determine any possible seasonality.

    Outliers

    Most of the exchange rates fluctuate between 0.04337 and 0.04348. However, at 2024-02-26 23:05:02, 2024-02-26 23:10:02, 2024-02-26 23:15:02, and 2024-02-26 23:20:02, we observe exchange rates (0.04312, 0.0431, 0.04329, and 0.04314 respectively) that are notably lower or higher than the other observations. These could be considered as outliers.

    Please note that this analysis is purely based on the given dataset and does not consider any external factors such as market opening/closing hours or key financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Based on the time-series data, the overall trend appears to be slightly downward. This trend suggests that the value of the TRY is decreasing over the period, evidenced by decreasing exchange rates. The rate starts around 0.04444 and ends near 0.04348, indicating a gradual fall in value.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

    Regarding seasonality and recurring patterns, the data does not appear to exhibit strong cyclic behavior. However, there are periods of relative stability followed by periods of slightly higher volatility, evident by more noticeable fluctuations in exchange rates. This behavior might suggest that certain factors, such as daily trading activity or geopolitical events, influence exchange rates, but the low granularity of the data makes it tough to establish a definite pattern.

    Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

    Upon reviewing the data, there aren't any noticeable outliers where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the previous points. The changes in the exchange rates appear gradual without sharp increases or decreases that would suggest significant market incidents. Although some periods experience relatively larger fluctuations, these do not significantly deviate from the overall trend or show unexpected variability.

    It's important to note that for an in-depth analysis (especially for identifying seasonality and patterns), more sophisticated statistical tools and methodologies would give a richer insight into this time-series data.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Trend Analysis

    The overall trend of the data provided for the period between 2024-02-19 01:00:02 and 2024-02-23 14:00:01 reveals a slow but consistent fluctuation in the exchange rate. During this period, the dataset presents mild fluctuation, starting from an exchange rate of 0.04365 and ending at 0.04348. Although there are slight increases and decreases in individual time frames, the general trend does not depict a strong increase or decrease but rather demonstrates stability in the rate.

    Seasonality Analysis

    In regards to seasonality or recurring patterns, as this data only covers a few days, it's challenging to determine if there are any significant recurring patterns or seasonality in the change of the exchange rates. Typically, such patterns would be discernible over a longer period. However, there seems to be no clear repeatable patterns within daily fluctuations based on the given dataset.

    Outliers Analysis

    Given the range of data provided, the dataset appears to lack extreme outliers where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the general trend. There is minor volatility in the data but not substantial enough to classify any point as a severe outlier. The data remains mostly within a consistent range over the time period given.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates provided is relatively stable with minor fluctuations. There is no significant general increase or decrease observed in the dataset. The TRY exchange rate started at 0.04338 at the beginning of the period and closed at a slightly increased rate of 0.0435 at the end. However, during this period, the fluctuation of the rate was within a small range, indicating marginal rate changes over the entire given period.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the provided dataset does not span over a long period, it's challenging to infer any definite seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. However, during the day's trading hours, there seem to be minor fluctuations that could be potentially attributed to trading activities during market hours. More granular or longer-term data might be needed to further solidify these observations.

    3. Identification of Outliers

    There does not seem to be any significant outliers in the provided dataset, indicating that the exchange rate steadily fluctuates within a minor range. No instance was observed where the exchange rate deviated considerably from this consistent trend. This suggests that the TRY exchange rates are relatively stable, without unexpected spikes or falls during the given period.

    4. Note on Contextual Factors

    The analysis provided here is purely based on the numbers given in the dataset and do not take into consideration any external or contextual factors that can play a significant role in influencing these exchange rates. Major market events, policy changes, economic indicators, geopolitical situations, and other financial news could have potential implications on these rates. A more comprehensive analytical model may need to take these factors into account to accurately understand the trends and predict future rates.

    Please note that this interpretation is based on the provided dataset, and caution should be taken when using it to make financial decisions, as exchange rates can be impacted by numerous unpredictable factors.