Baht Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    After comprehensively analyzing the dataset, it's clear that the exchange rate of THB appears relatively stable throughout the presented timeline. An overall constant rate is observed, with minor fluctuations around the value of 0.0378 to 0.0379. There are only slight increases and decreases, but these variations do not seem to indicate a significant overall upward or downward long-term trend.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    As for seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not present a clear cyclic behaviour within the given time frame. The exchange rate consistently fluctuates within a narrow range, though no obvious time-dependent pattern is discernable from the dataset. This signifies that external factors not included in the data might play a role in influencing these rates. However, this analysis does not take into account factors external to the provided data.

    Noting any outliers

    With respect to outliers, it is worth noting that there aren’t any instances of large spikes, drops or distinct abnormalities in the exchange rates. The data points remain predominantly clustered around the average value without any significant divergence. Therefore, no considerable outliers are detected within this set of exchange rates.

    Please note that these observations are based strictly on the given dataset, and future analysis could take into account various external factors like market circumstances and global economic events for a more holistic overview.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The provided dataset points out the trend of a particular exchange rate over a 24-hour period on February 28, 2024. The THB exchange rate started at 0.03761 at the beginning of the day and ended the day at 0.03778. Generally speaking, there's a small incremental upward trend in the exchange rate throughout the day. Although the exchange rate oscillates at certain moments, the overall trend appears to be moving upwards from the start to the end of the day. To make a definitive conclusion over a longer period, a larger dataset, preferably covering multiple months or years, would be beneficial to notice periodic peaks and troughs.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    From the dataset provided, it's not possible to identify a clear pattern of seasonality or cyclicity due to the limited amount of data (only one day). To detect seasonality elements or recurring patterns, we would ideally need data spanning over multiple years. Seasonality or recurring patterns often present themselves on a longer timescale (daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly), hence, we might need data that cover these periods.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

    Upon observing this dataset, it appears to hold fluctuation within a very small range (from 0.03758 to 0.03780). There's no significant spike or drop captured that would indicate any substantial outlier. However, again, such observations are limited to the small range of data provided. A more profound analysis could be done with a comprehensive data set covering a longer period. In this case, statistical analysis techniques could be used to pinpoint any significant outliers, if they exist.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Analysis of THB Exchange Rates Time Series Data

    Observing the time series data for the THB exchange rates, there are several important aspects and trends we can identify. Here, I will provide a comprehensive analysis of the exchange rates over time, examining the overall trend, seasonality, and any outliers present in the dataset.

    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the THB exchange rates throughout this time period indicates subtle fluctuations. There is no sharp rise or fall, instead, the rates remain generally stable over the given time frame. That being said, the data also doesn't stay completely flat. Small valleys and peaks appear throughout the data, indicating the influence of changing market circumstances.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From the given data, it is difficult to conclude any strong seasonality or recurring patterns. While there are consistent ups and downs, the timeframe isn't long enough to clearly pinpoint any yearly or monthly recurring patterns. As with many financial metrics, exchange rates would require more extended periods of data to be analysed for strong seasonal trends accurately.

    3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    The dataset does not contain any significant outliers where the THB exchange rate deviates drastically from the general pattern of the data. While there are minor peaks and valleys representing growth and decline, none of these shifts in the exchange rate are large enough to be classified as significant outliers.

    Importantly, external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends or holidays, the release of key financial news, or reports weren't considered in this analysis. Consequently, for a more detailed and accurate analysis in actual forecasting attempts, these factors should be considered as they can greatly impact exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The given dataset provides an in-depth overview of the fluctuations in the THB exchange rate over the specified period. In general, the exchange rate appears to be moderately stable. Although there are minor fluctuations in the rates, they range within a small interval from a low of around 0.0374 to a high of about 0.038. However, without a more specific statistical analysis or fit of a trend line, it's challenging to identify a specific increasing or decreasing trend. Instead, the values appear to have relatively stayed the same, with minor fluctuations around a specific mean value.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in time series data often requires a data set covering at least a few cycles of the suspected pattern or seasonality. Given the dataset available and the range it covers, it's tricky to identify clear-cut seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes. The fluctuations in the exchange rate seem to be more random than patterned. There aren't easily identifiable regular intervals where the rate increases or decreases systematically.

    3. Outliers in the Data

    An outlier is a value that deviates significantly from the other observations in the data. In the provided dataset, none of the values appear to deviate extremely largely from the others. All changes seem to be relatively minor and within a tight interval. Thus, it doesn't seem to be any particularly large spikes or drops that could be identified as outliers. The dataset appears to be well maintained without any significant inconsistencies. However, a statistical analysis with well-defined valuation criteria would be more accurate in determining outliers.

    Disclaimer

    These findings are based on an initial visual and numerical analysis of the data. For a more definitive evaluation of the trends, seasonality, and outliers in this time series data, a more in-depth statistical analysis would be necessary. Such analysis includes methods like Dickey-Fuller tests for stationarity, autocorrelation functions (ACF), and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) for lagged dependencies, among others.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    After analyzing the given dataset, here are my insights:

    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    From the data provided, it appears that the THB exchange rate fluctuates gradually over the provided time period. The rate starts from 0.03751 and ends at 0.03757, demonstrating a slightly ascending trend, though variances can be seen between these points significantly. While through the period, minor fluctuations occur, the general trend seems to be moderately stable.

    Identify Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    By looking at the data, it's difficult to identify definite recurring patterns or seasonality without considering factors like time frames such as high-frequency trading hours, weekends, or tie intervals such as mornings or nights. However, there looks to be a fair degree of volatility occurring at certain periods. Further, more detailed structured data including weekdays vs weekends, business hours vs non-business hours, or month on month analysis might reveal stronger trends or patterns.

    Noting any Outliers

    Regarding potential outliers, the dataset demonstrates limited variances from the trend with a range between 0.03735 to 0.03777. There isn't an absolute extreme value that can be considered a significant outlier. Nevertheless, each peak and trough could be seen as a minor outlier, indicating how often the exchange rate deviates from its average value, but an advanced statistical analysis might be needed for this purpose.

    These observations provide a high-level analysis of your data. It is important to note that exchange rates are influenced by a multitude of factors, which are not taken into account in this analysis. Further, more concrete insights could be gathered when these factors are properly factored in.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    After reviewing the provided data, the overall trend of the exchange rates during the given timeframe showcases a relative stability. Starting at 0.03743, the rates slightly decrease to 0.03737 around 6:00, then slightly increase to 0.03758 around 10:10, then slightly decrease back to 0.03755 around 14:55. The minor fluctuations suggest the exchange rate is relatively stable within this span of approximately 24 hours.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Based on the available data, it's difficult to definitively determine any seasonality or recurring patterns within a single 24-hour span. In general, a much longer time series would be necessary to draw significant conclusions about these areas. Despite this, within this short timeframe, there does appear to be a mild pattern of decrease in the early morning hours (around 6:00), slight increase during late morning hours (around 10:10), and then a slight decrease again in the afternoon hours (around 14:55). However, this observation might be coincidental and should not be considered as a reliable pattern without a more extensive data set.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    In this data, the exchange rates remain within a narrow range of 0.03735 to 0.03758, indicating minimal variance and the absence of significant outliers. There were no instances where the exchange rate differed dramatically from what would be expected based on established patterns. All changes in the exchange rates within this set of data are relatively minimal and don't present any significant anomalies or unexpected fluctuations.