Lempira Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Upon examining the data, it is clear that the HNL exchange rate is relatively stable over time. However, it can be observed that there are minor fluctuations in the rate. It starts from 0.05554, hits a peak at 0.05559, and goes down to 0.05531 by the end of the period, which shows a slight descending trend overall. However, the variation from the highest value to the lowest is very small, suggesting that the exchange rate remains relatively stable.

Seasonality or Recurring Pattern Identification

Given the data provided, it is difficult to firmly identify any seasonal trends or patterns. The variables in the data do not appear to change in predictable patterns that repeat for each day, which signifies that there is no intraday seasonality present. However, a more detailed breakdown or longer time frame might highlight some recurring tendencies.

Notable Outliers

As it pertains to this dataset, it does not contain any notable outliers. All the values of the HNL currency exchange from the highest to the lowest are relatively continuous and range between 0.05531 and 0.05559. None of the provided rates diverged significantly from the expected or average rate, thereby suggesting the absence of any obvious outliers. The data is quite tightly packed around a central value, showing little variance, which often implies a lack of outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

Based on the given data, the HNL exchange rates generally show a stable pattern. There are small fluctuations in the exchange rate, which can be seen as normal changes in a financial market. The rates started and ended in a similar range, around 0.0555 to 0.0556. There was a significant dip around the timestamp of 06:50:02, after which the rates gradually increased and returned to the previous level. This shows that the overall trend of the HNL exchange rates during the period shown was relatively stable.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not seem to show any clear-cut pattern. The exchange rates fluctuate within a specific range, but these fluctuations do not show a clear seasonal trend. This might be due to the fact that the data provided only covers a single day and it's difficult to see any weekly, monthly, or annual seasonal patterns from it.

Outliers

The big drop in the HNL exchange rate at 06:50:02 could be considered an outlier. This change was relatively substantial compared to the rest of the data, dropping from approximately 0.0557 to approximately 0.0554. After this drop, the rate increased slightly and then remained relatively stable for the rest of the time.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

After analyzing the provided dataset, it can be seen that the exchange rates are relatively stable and experience minor fluctuations over the period shown. Although there are slight shifts in rates, these do not indicate any strong trend towards a significant increase or decrease over time. Most of the values lie between 0.05526 and 0.05566, showing very minimal variance over the period. This suggests that the HNL currency had low volatility during this period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Considering the given timeframe of a single day (2024-04-23), it is challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate data. The day-to-day data is too short to show any seasonal effects or meaningful cyclical patterns that might occur on a weekly, monthly, or yearly basis. Similarly, any micro-patterns within the single day such as effects due to opening or closing of foreign exchange markets are hard to discern given the data. A more extended data period would be required to gain a clearer understanding of these repeating events or anomalies.

Outliers in The Dataset

Throughout the dataset, there were no extreme fluctuations in exchange rates that would suggest the presence of outliers. The exchange rate values are quite compact and do not show unusually high or unusually low rates, indicating that during this single day there weren't any instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend. Therefore, we can conclude that there were no outliers present in the given time-series financial data.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the data, it has been observed that the exchange rates have shown slight volatility over the duration. The rates opened at 0.05564 and closed at 0.05553, showing a minor decrease over time. While there might be minor variations within particular periods, the overall trend seems to be mostly stable with a small downward shift.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

For the time-series data provided, it is hard to say about specific recurring patterns or seasonality because the complete dataset covers less than a day. The data isn't sufficient to conclude on monthly or weekly repeating patterns. However, through the period of this dataset, there doesn't seem to be a clear periodic or repeating pattern in terms of exchange rate variations.

Outliers in the Dataset

Regarding outliers - points in the data where the exchange rate varies largely from the general trend or expected pattern, there doesn't seem to be any pronounced outliers in the dataset. However, these findings are limited by the scope of the single-day dataset and might vary with a broader context of data.

Overall, the data present a mostly stable trend with mild fluctuations over the course of a single day. More data would provide a better understanding of possible recurrent fluctuation patterns or seasonal trends.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

After an intensive analysis of the provided dataset, it can be seen that the exchange rate has a somewhat volatile behavior. Overall, the trend seems to slightly increase. However, the change is not significantly high. The change within the given timeframe starts with 0.05463 and ends with 0.05550, presenting a slight increment over the period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

• The data series does not seem to have a clear seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate fluctuates multiple times, and no clear cycle of these fluctuations can be identified based on the timestamps in this dataset.
• While the data might have intraday patterns, it would require more granular data (such as hourly rates) over a longer period to identify such short-cycle patterns more confidently.
• Moreover, to understand annual seasonality, data over several years would provide a more robust basis for discerning any such patterns.

Note on Outliers

In terms of outliers, this dataset does not show significant deviation from the trend or other values that can be classified with certainty as outliers. The data seems to mostly fluctuate within a certain band, without any sudden massive rise or fall which would be recognized as an outlier.

In conclusion, while the exchange rate does increase slightly over the period, it does show a fair bit of volatility, albeit within a narrow range. There are no clear repeating patterns, and also no clear outliers in the data. The analysis might benefit from additional data including more granular intraday data and longer time series to discern patterns with more certainty.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of HNL Exchange Rate Dataset

The data seems to be collected between the 15th and 19th of April, 2024. The HNL exchange rate oscillates between a minimum of 0.05549 and a maximum of 0.05604. However, this range is quite narrow, and there isn't a significant fluctuation in the rates during the time frame analysed.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

Comprehending the overall trend involves identifying whether the rates generally increase, decrease, or remain stable over the illustrated time-frame.

• The data begins with a rate of 0.0557 on the 15th of April, 2024.
• There seems to be some subtle fluctuations, but we observe the highest exchange rate of 0.05604 on the 16th of April, 2024.
• Post this peak, there seems to be a gradual decrease in the rates, with a few minor spikes. The data ends with 0.05552 on the 19th of April, 2024.

Given the nature of these fluctuations, the overall trend is a slight decrease in the HNL exchange rate from 0.0557 to 0.05552 over four days.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

There does not seem to be an evident recurring pattern or seasonality occurring daily in the dataset acquired. The rates fluctuate slightly but show no clear periodical increase or decrease. Without data for extended periods or additional information like day of the week, it's challenging to identify any subtle weekly patterns or seasonality.

3. Outliers and Unexpected Values

Due to the consistent oscillation of rates within a small range, it is clear that there aren't any significant outliers. The data points remain relatively close to each other and lie within the narrow band of 0.05549 and 0.05604.

This indicates that there aren't any unexpected or unusual peaks or troughs during this time frame, suggesting a stable market situation in terms of HNL exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates.

After analyzing the given time series data, it can be observed that the overall trend of the exchange rates remains fairly consistent. The value starts at 0.05561 and ends at 0.05556 with some slight fluctuation in between. The highest value witnessed is 0.05577 and the lowest 0.05549. The rates, therefore, are fairly stable with some relatively small variations.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates.

In regards to seasonality or recurring patterns, the data doesn't evidently indicate any. The exchange rate fluctuations appear to be random without any evident repeating patterns. It is crucial to remember that seasonality is more typically observed in larger timescales (e.g., yearly or quarterly). Seeing significant seasonality in hourly data could be uncommon.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

Regarding outliers, there does not appear to be any major swings that stand out as abnormal or extreme outliers in the provided dataset. The data fluctuates within a narrow range, and no individual data point deviates significantly from the overall pattern of the data. The highest value of 0.05577 and the lowest value of 0.05549, while the extremes of the dataset, are not dramatic outliers as they are still close to the overall range. Outliers are usually defined as values that deviate greatly from the overall pattern of a dataset, and by that definition, there appear to be no significant outliers in this timeseries dataset.