Fiji Dollar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

From the initial spot check of the dataset, the trend of FJD exchange rate during the time period illustrated in the dataset appears to have subtle fluctuations. The trend shows ebbs and flows, albeit within a relatively close price range, suggesting mildly oscillating exchange rate but with no obvious substantial increases or decreases over time. There is a general sense of stability in the data, but a more detailed analysis with graphic illustration would better confirm this.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, such patterns are typically more apparent in longer-term datasets (e.g. year-over-year) where potential influences of season-specific factors are more likely to emerge - for example, quarterly fiscal reports, annual economic changes, and alike. However, this specific dataset does not seem long enough to clearly highlight such seasonal effects. There may be short-term patterns recurring within the provided data, although further statistical analyses, such as auto-correlation functions, would be required to confidently identify any such intra-day or week-over-week patterns.

3. Outliers Identification

To identify outliers or significant differences in the exchange rate data, we would typically examine if there are any data points that deviate substantially from the mean or the established range of variability in the dataset. In this case, while some periods do show small notable fluctuations, no glaringly or significant outliers can be visibly detected based on the provided dataset.

Note

Realistically, exchange rates are frequently influenced by numerous factors beyond the scope of just the data provided in this dataset. While this analysis strictly adheres to the data provided and does not consider context-specific information such as market hours or financial news, please note that in reality such factors can and do significantly impact exchange rates. For a more holistic and accurate understanding of trends, patterns and outliers, such factors would typically be considered in a comprehensive exchange rate analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Looking at the given data, it can be observed that the FJD exchange rate has experienced fluctuations over time. However, the general trend seems to be increasing, albeit moderately. The exchange rate started at 0.59592 and ended at 0.59736, exhibiting a gradual upward trajectory. It can be inferred that over the period specified, the FJD has slightly appreciated in value.

Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

An assessment of the data suggests that there may be some recurring patterns or seasonality in the FJD exchange rates, but these are not strongly evident. The rates tend to fluctuate rather regularly within a narrow range. However, catching a daily or monthly pattern would require a more detailed investigation including a larger dataset. This analysis does not reveal any clear repeatable patterns across the same times each day or the same dates each month.

Outliers Identification

Most of the exchange rate values in the dataset are clustered around relatively close values. However, there are several points where rate fluctuations are more substantial than usual (for example, rising to 0.5987 or dropping to 0.59577). These significant changes can be considered as outliers as they differ noticeably from the general trend. Given the moderate fluctuations in most of the data, these larger swings are unusual. Nonetheless, such outliers are not necessarily indicative of an issue and can be the result of various normal market phenomena. Hence, while they may raise interest for further exploration, their presence does not necessarily indicate a problem needing a solution.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data Loading and Initial Analysis

The provided dataset seems to be providing FJD (Fiji Dollar) exchange rate with respect to another currency at different timestamps (exact hour and minute). The data appears to span over a whole day on 23rd April 2024. The FJD exchange rate is recorded every few minutes, with some time gaps ranging between 5 mins to around 25 mins, which may probably be due to non-availability of data at specific timelines.

Trend Analysis

A quick scan of values indicates minimal fluctuations in the exchange rate throughout the day. From 0.596 at 00:00:02, it gradually increases to 0.59666 at 04:55:02, then declining to the day's minimum of 0.59439 at around 09:50:02. Further during the day, it reached a peak value of 0.60061 at 11:00:03, and finally closing at 0.59591 at 23:55:02. So there seems to be an initial increase, followed by a drop, a significant rise and then a decrease again.

Investigating Seasonality

As the data provided only covers a single day, it's difficult to attribute any specific patterns found as seasonality. Seasonal patterns typically occur when observations are made across multiple cycles, like several months or years. But within a day, we cannot definitively establish recurring patterns as 'seasonality'.

Outliers in the Data

Exchange rates typically fluctuate continuously, hence any prominent spike or sharp decline could be considered an anomaly or outlier. Although, there doesn't appear to be large variances within short time spans in this dataset. However, the sudden rise of the exchange rate to 0.60061 at 11:00:03 from 0.59505 at 10:50:03 can be considered as outlier as this seems to be a significant increase in a short span of 10 minutes. Also, the drop from 0.59989 at 14:10:03 to 0.59608 at 15:35:04 seems moderately abrupt.

Conclusion

The exchange rates in this dataset appear to be moderately volatile, exhibiting minor fluctuations throughout the day, with no clear seasonal patterns within the day. The dataset presents a mix of upward and downward trends across different timespans. Genuine outliers are relatively low in number, but do exist in the dataset. As requested, external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or financial news have not been considered in this analysis.

Summary of Last Month

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

By looking at the given dataset, the overall trend of the Fiji Dollar (FJD) exchange rate seems relatively stable, fluctuating within a narrow range, which is approximately from 0.596 to 0.604. However, there is a noticeable drop at 15:40:02, 2024-04-22, when the rate decreased significantly to 0.596 from the previous rate of 0.60314.

Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of the recurring patterns, there isn't any clear, discernible seasonality present in the dataset. The fluctuations appear to be more random rather than following a cyclical pattern associated with specific times of the day or specific dates. However, a more detailed time-series analysis can be performed after splitting the data into smaller time intervals to better detect any possible seasonality or recurring patterns.

Noting any Outliers

There is one noticeable outlier in this dataset, represented by the significant drop in the exchange rate at 15:40:02, 2024-04-22, as mentioned earlier. This change deviates greatly from the rest of the data, as throughout the dataset, the exchange rate fluctuates within a relatively tight range, and such a sharp decrease is unique. This decrease could potentially indicate an irregular market event, or it could simply be due to data recording error. Unfortunately, based on the provided data, we cannot definitively determine the cause of this outlier.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Analysis of the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Starting from March 22, 2024, the exchange rate seems to generally fluctuate around 0.6. The lowest exchange rate observed is roughly around 0.595, and the highest is around 0.607. It is important to note that the dataset does not seem to exhibit a clear increasing or decreasing trend. The fluctuations remain within a relatively narrow band. Therefore, the exchange rate can be said to be generally stable over this period.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Due to the limitation in the period of the data provided (from March 22 to April 19, 2024), there is insufficient data to identify any seasonal pattern in the changes of the exchange rates at an annual level. However, a deeper investigation into hourly or daily patterns requires more sophisticated time-series analysis methods which is beyond the current scope of the request.

3. Noting any Outliers

Regarding outliers, the dataset does not reveal any significant abnormalities in the exchange rates. There are several spikes or drops in the exchange rates, but subsequent data points tend to revert to the mean. Therefore, these could be potential outliers. However, in financial time series such as exchange rates, such fluctuations can also be part of the normal market behavior.

In summary, the major takeaway from the provided dataset is that the exchange rate has remained typically around 0.60 over the course of one month, with usual market fluctuations, but without any clear trend or seasonality. To get more meaningful results, a dataset covering a longer period and external factors could be integrated into the analysis if desired.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Trend Analysis

A quick view of the data set indicates that the FJD exchange rate over the given period is relatively stable. However, slight fluctuations can be seen throughout the period. Considering the whole data, it doesn't seem to show a consistent increasing or decreasing trend.

Seasonality

On the matter of seasonality or recurring patterns, the scope of the sequence given is too limited to conclusively detect any annual or semi-annual patterns. However, even within the limited scope, there doesn't seem to be a discernible recurring pattern in the rates at specific times of the day.

Outliers Detection

Noticing the outliers in the data, we do not see large, unexpected spikes or dips that could be classified as true outliers. The exchange rate seems to fluctuate within a predictable range for the most part. However, one notable exception happens on 2024-04-18 21:00:02 where the rate dropped significantly to 0.59899 and then bounced back to the normal range, this could be considered as an outlier.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we observe a relatively stable exchange rate over the given period with minimal fluctuations. No discernible seasonality or recurring patterns were identified within the limits of this data set. There is one significant outlier that might indicate an unusual event at that time. However, any impact was quickly reversed as the exchange rate returned to its usual range.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

The overall trend seems to generally remain stable, with some periods of minor changes. On a macro level, the data suggests minimal fluctuations, signaling a balanced exchange rate environment for the FJD. There are no significant increases or decreases over the analysed time frame, which suggests a moderate level of volatility in this particular market.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

There are some patterns observable in the data. Exchange rates seem to fluctuate within a reasonably tight band, indicating stability and patterns of minimal fluctuation. However, without any clear context such as daily opening and closing of market hours, the assumption of a particular repeating pattern over the timeframe based solely on these timestamps may not be accurate.

Outliers

Given the generally stable nature of these exchange rates, any significant deviations would likely be outliers. However, the dataset provided does not contain such instances of drastic changes in exchange rates. All values appear to fit within a tight range, indicating a robust level of control over the exchange rate or relative stability in the underlying economic conditions. Thus, no clear outliers could be identified in this data set.

Summary

The FJD exchange rate displayed stability over the provided period, which can be considered a positive in maintaining financial certainty. Observed changes adhere to a consistent range, with no sharp increases or decreases, thus not displaying any distinct seasonality or recurrence. Notably, the lack of outliers further indicates the overall stability of the FJD exchange rate during this timeframe.