Naira Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis

    Looking at the dataset, the data covers a period of one day (29th February 2024) and provides the exchange rates for NGN at various times during that day. Here's a detailed analysis of the trend, seasonality, and outliers in the exchange rates.

    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The data shows three distinct periods: from 00:00:02 to 07:35:03, the ngn exchange rate was maintained at 0.00083, indicating rate stability during this period. After that, there was a slight increase in the exchange rate to 0.00086 that lasted until 11:15:02. The rate then decreased slightly to 0.00084 at 11:20:02, and remained stable at that level for the rest of the day.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Since this data only covers one day, it is challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns. However, within this one-day period, there appears to be a pattern of exchange rate stability with minor fluctuations occurring twice during the day. First, an increase in the rate at around 07:35:03, and then a decrease at around 11:15:02. These could be linked to market activities and trading volumes during those times.

    3. Outliers

    The dataset doesn't seem to have any outliers as such. The exchange rate fluctuates only marginally within the range of 0.00083 to 0.00086. These fluctuations are quite minor and fall within expected bounds for exchange rate movements. Hence, there are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the overall trend.

    It is worth noting that despite the limited timeframe, this analysis provides insight into exchange rate behavior within a single trading day. This essentially captures intraday volatility in exchange rates, which is a crucial aspect of currency trading.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall trends in exchange rates

    From the dataset provided, it appears that there is very little variability in the exchange rates. The rate seems to remain quite stable at 0.00086 for a substantial part of the given period, until it slightly increased to 0.00087. However, it subsequently decreased and remained steady again at 0.00083. There doesn't appear to be a significant general trend of increases or decreases over the period recorded.

    Seasonality or recurring patterns

    Given this dataset, it is difficult to identify any meaningful recurring patterns or seasonality in the changes of exchange rates. The exchange rate seems to remain stable for long stretches of time, with only some sporadic and mild fluctuations.

    Outliers in exchange rates

    There are no noticeable outliers in the given exchange rate data. All recorded rates fall within a very narrow range (0.00086 - 0.00083) with no instances of rates differing significantly from the general trend. The few instances where the rate has changed also do not seem to denote any anomalistic behaviour.

    Summary

    • The exchange rates remained largely uniform throughout the given period with a slight increase and subsequent decrease observable within the dataset.
    • Recurring patterns or seasonality in the changes of exchange rates were not observable, given the stable nature of the rates.
    • The dataset did not contain any noticeable outliers as the rates stayed within a very tight range.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the data provided, the overall trend in the exchange rates (NGN) over the specified period appears to be largely stable. The rate stayed at 0.00084 for a substantial length of time (from the start until around the 02:50:02 mark on 2024-02-26) before increasing slightly to 0.00087, where it remained with a few deviations back to 0.00084 and a single instance of reaching 0.00088. On the whole, there don't seem to be any major fluctuations.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data doesn't present a clear seasonal trend. The increase from 0.00084 to 0.00087 occurred at around 02:50:02, but there were no substantial and consistent movements beyond this point that would indicate a seasonal pattern. The data remains consistent with minimal fluctuation, which suggests that the exchange rate is mostly stable rather than seasonally affected in this timeframe.

    Identification of Outliers

    When it comes to potential outliers within this data set, there is only one instance which deviates from the otherwise stable data. The exchange rate reached 0.00088 at 12:50:02 on 2024-02-26, which is beyond the usual rate of 0.00087. Nonetheless, this appears to be a one-time spike rather than a consistent variance, quickly returning to its normal range. Therefore, it can be considered an outlier in this data set.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the dataset provided, it appears that the overall trend of the exchange rates is on a downtrend. The exchange rate starts from 0.0015 and ends at 0.00084, indicating a decrease over the time period shown. However, there are periods of fluctuations where the rates rise and fall, but the general direction is downwards.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns.

    Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, it seems there is no apparent pattern in the exchange rates. The time range provided does not seem to exhibit any daily or monthly cyclic behavior in the exchange rates. It would require a deeper and more detailed analysis to possibly identify any minor fluctuations or patterns which might be related to certain hours of the day or specific days of the week.

    Noting any Outliers

    In terms of outliers, there are several instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general trend. For example, there are sudden drops in the exchange rates such as on 2024-01-31 where it drops to 0.00112, and on 2024-02-02 where it falls to 0.00096 from 0.00113. There is also a notable drop on 2024-02-20 where the rate goes down to 0.00084 from the previous rate of 0.0009. However, without more context or a defined criteria for what constitutes an 'outlier', these values may or may not fall under the typical definition of an outlier.

    Please note, these observations only reflect patterns that exist in the provided dataset. For a more rigorous and accurate analysis, more complex methods like time series decomposition or statistical tests should be pursued, along with a larger dataset spanning numerous years.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Based on the dataset provided, it is visible that the NGN exchange rate has shown fluctuation's during the period. The exchange rate started at 0.0009 on 2024-02-19 and then demonstrated a slight decrease to 0.00088 on the same day. The rate then recovered back to 0.0009 upto 2024-02-20, after which there was a more prominent drop to 0.00084, which was maintained thorough the remaining period. So the trend seems to be a minor fluctuation, but remaining more or less stable towards the end.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    As for seasonality, given the short period of data (5 days), it is challenging to make any strong claim. However, within this limited dataset, there appears not to be any discernible recurring pattern in the exchange rates - the given data does not show any daily or hourly pattern. We need to have data for a longer period of time to properly determine any monthly or weekly seasons.

    Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    As for any outliers, since the data seems to fluctuate only slightly throughout the period given, with the exception of minor decreases on 2024-02-19 (to 0.00088) and 2024-02-21 (to 0.00085), which could be seen as slight anomalies. Except those, other data points can be generally considered within the expected range based on the overall stable trend.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The dataset provided shows a constant NGN exchange rate throughout the dataset with the rate remaining at 0.00084. Hence, there is no discernible trend of increase or decrease in the exchange rate over the provided time period.

    Identifying Seasonality

    Regarding the identification of any seasonal or recurring patterns, this dataset does not reveal any. As the data is stable and there is no variation in the exchange rate value, it is impossible to identify seasonality or recurring patterns. In cases where there are variations in the data, methods like time-series decomposition could be applied to observe seasonal effects.

    Outliers Detection

    Similarly, as for outliers, with a consistently repeated exchange rate value, there are no outliers in the dataset. Outliers are typically data points that are significantly different from the others which is not the case in this dataset.

    Conclusion

    Overall, the time-series data provided shows no variation in the Nigerian NGN exchange rate over the entire time period. This lack of fluctuations suggests an extremely stable exchange rate environment during this time.