Naira Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Data

An analysis of the provided dataset, a time series data elucidating the changes in exchange rates (in NGN) at different timestamps, has been performed. The goal of the analysis was to understand the overall trends in exchange rates, identify any seasonality, and note any significant outliers.

The Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Between the timestamps "2024-05-21 00:00:02" and "2024-05-21 09:45:03", the exchange rate value remained the same at 0.00089. This suggests a stable exchange rate during this duration.

However, starting at the timestamp "2024-05-21 09:50:03" until "2024-05-21 12:55:02", the rate increased to 0.00092 which represents a slight increase in the value of the currency. From "2024-05-21 12:55:02" onward, the rate witnessed a further increase to 0.00096, hence indicating a rising trend in the end hours of the series data.

Seasonality in Exchange Rates

Unlike many financial time series, this dataset doesn't display a clear seasonal pattern. The exchange rates stayed consistent for the majority of the time, with only two noticeable changes. Therefore, any seasonality in the data is not obvious from this analysis.

Identification of Outliers

The outliers in a time series data are usually the data points that significantly deviate from the trend and seasonality. However, in this dataset, the rates stayed mostly constant. Thus, based on the trend, there don’t appear to be any significant outliers in this dataset as such fluctuations in exchange rates are normal.

In conclusion, the overall trend of the exchange rate data depicted a moderately stable to rising trend, with no explicit seasonality or outliers observed within the data.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From the dataset provided, the ngn exchange rates are generally constant at 0.00091 over a long period, with a slight increase to 0.00092 observed at 08:30:03 on 2024-05-20, which lasted till 10:34:03 on the same day. However, a decrease is observed at 10:35:02 when the rate drops to 0.00089 and remains so till the end of the dataset. No other fluctuations in the rate were observed within this timestamp. This suggests that the exchange rates were mostly stable with slight fluctuations within this period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the limited period covered by the dataset provided, the data does not seem to show any distinct seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. The data might be insufficient to establish a seasonality pattern. Longer periods of data might be required to observe a possible recurring pattern.

Note on Outliers

There are no significant outliers in the given dataset. The rates remained relatively consistent, barring the two changes mentioned previously. There were no instances of exchange rates differing significantly from what would be expected based on the observed trend.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the exchange rate seems to show a decrease. The highest noted exchange rate in the dataset is 0.00128, this was observed multiple times, initially on 2024-04-19 at 06:00:02 and last on 2024-04-22 at 06:00:02. However, towards the end of the given dataset, specifically on 2024-05-17 at 10:00:02, the lowest exchange rate of 0.00093 is observed. This difference between the highest and lowest exchange rate points towards a decreasing trend in the dataset.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the information on hand, it isn't possible to robustly identify seasonality or recurring patterns. We would need a longer dataset spanning over more years to effectively discover such patterns. Any perceived patterns from this limited dataset could purely be accidental or short-term.

Notable Outliers

An unusual pattern or outlier can be observed, specifically around the timestamps of 2024-04-22 08:00:02 to 2024-04-22 20:00:02. The exchange rate falls sharply to 0.00115 and then further down to 0.00111 during these hours, but it stabilizes afterwards. Another such decrease and stabilization pattern is observed from 2024-04-24 08:00:02 to 2024-04-30 14:00:03. These could be due to various market factors that the data does not provide insights into and without more information, it is hard to attribute these patterns to a specific cause.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analyzing the provided data, the following can be observed:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

After examining the data, it appears that the exchange rate somewhat fluctuates around an average price over the given timeframe. Initially, there was a slight increase from 0.00093 to 0.00095, which took place in the first day. However, this was followed by a mild decrease down to 0.00089 over the next two days. It plateaued at this rate, but then moved back up to 0.0009 before decreasing again to 0.00088. After a short period, the rate finally swung back up to previous high at 0.00093. Overall, the general exchange rate over these few days appears to be quite stable, without significant upward or downward trends. It seems to exhibit more of a slight fluctuation around an average, rather than a consistent trend.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

As this is a financial time series data, we could expect certain patterns or 'seasonality' in the data. However, in this case, it is difficult to ascertain any recurring patterns or seasonal effects in the exchange rates based on the available data. The time-scale may be too short to appropriately identify such patterns. A longer timeframe, ideally over a year, or more granular data such as minute-by-minute changes, may offer better insights into any possible seasonality.

Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

Within the given dataset, no significant outliers or unexpected values can be observed. The exchange rate has remained relatively stabilised within the range of 0.00089 to 0.00095, which suggests that no extraordinary events or market shocks have occurred during this brief period. However, for a comprehensive analysis of the dataset, outliers would typically be determined based on more rigorous statistical testing. Additionally, it's important to note that currency exchange rates are influenced by a wide array of complex factors, including socio-political events, economic indicators, market sentiment and so on, which are not covered in this dataset and analysis.

It's crucial to acknowledge that such an analysis often requires considering a multitude of complex factors. Also, this analysis is based on a fairly brief period. For a more robust understanding of the exchange rates' behavior over time, a comprehensive analysis over an expanded timescale and with more granular data would likely yield more significant insights.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

From the data provided, it can be observed that the exchange rates for NGN remained stable at 0.00089 from midnight to around 2:55 AM on 17th May 2024. The value then increased to 0.0009 and remained constant till around 7:50 AM. Thereafter, it saw a slight increase and stabilized at 0.00091 until approximately 9:40 AM. It then increased to 0.00093 and remained constant till the end of the provided timestamp.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not span a sufficient length of time to ascertain long-term, yearly, or monthly fluctuations. However, within the provided 24-hour period, it appears subtle but consistent increases occur mostly in the early hours, around the beginning of the day. Although this pattern is founded only on a day's data and it may not be a consistent trend beyond this data.

Outliers and Unexpected Values

The dataset does not seem to present any obvious outliers or specious transactions based on the given trend. Changes in the NGN exchange rate over this time period are very gradual and incremental, with no unexpected jumps or drops.

Please note that more precise and in-depth analysis might require a more extended dataset covering a more considerable period, possible spanning over weeks, months or years for seasonality detection and also considering additional external factors such as monetary policies, world events, which were not evaluated in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Based on the given dataset, here is a comprehensive analysis:

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Looking at the dataset provided, the overall trend for this particular series of exchange rates (NGN) appears to be relatively stable. The rate begins at 0.0009 and it fluctuates slightly but by a very small margin within the time interval given. There is a mild decline to 0.00088 but it doesn't last long and the rate rises back up to 0.0009. The lowest observed rate is around 0.00088 and the highest is 0.0009. This suggests there is not much significant volatility within this specific period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Under initial analysis, there doesn't appear to be any specific seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates based on the provided timestamps. The rate fluctuates very mildly and within a very small range. There doesn't seem to be any periodic rise or fall in exchange rates that could be attributed to seasonality.

Outliers

From the data, no noticeable outliers are immediately evident. The variability in the exchange rate is very narrow and it kept within the same range throughout the entire period. All values remain within an expected range based on the observed trend and no single datapoint deviates significantly from the others.

Note

However, it's important to note that these observations are based purely on the dataset provided. External factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can and do often have significant impact on exchange rates. This analysis was asked to not keep these factors in consideration. Furthermore, the lack of identified seasonality or recurring patterns, as well as outliers, could also be due to the relatively small range of data provided. More extensive datasets, covering larger time periods might provide more variability and distinct trends.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From the time series data provided, the exchange rate for NGN (Nigerian naira) remained relatively stable for most periods. The rate started at 0.00091, stayed constant for an extended period, then increased slightly to 0.00092 before decreasing steadily to 0.00089. Afterward, it rose again to 0.0009 and stayed constant for a long time before decreasing back to 0.00089. Almost the end of the period, it slightly increased again to 0.0009.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

There is a slight fluctuation in the exchange rate visible in the data, but there doesn't appear to be a consistent pattern of seasonality. This means that the exchange rate does not show predictable and recurring changes over different times of the day or specific days. However, it's important to note that a more in-depth analysis would need to be conducted with a larger dataset potentially covering multiple years of data, as seasonality might occur over larger periods (e.g., trends related to yearly economic cycles).

Notable Outliers

When considering outliers within this data, there doesn't seem to be any extreme variations in the exchange rate that can be termed as outliers. The rate mainly fluctuates between 0.00089 and 0.00092. Any significant changes in exchange rate are gradual and don't deviate substantially from this range, which means no major unexpected spike or drop in the exchange rate that could be treated as an outlier.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the NGN (Nigerian naira) exchange rate remained relatively stable within a narrowly defined range throughout the period shown in the data. No noticeable seasonality pattern or remarkable outliers were observed in this dataset.

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