Naira Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of NGN Exchange Rate Time Series Data

The data provided offers time series values for NGN exchange rates on the date of 25th April, 2024. The dataset covers a total span of 24 hours, with data points recorded almost every 5 minutes. Let us dissect the data as requested:

Trend in the Exchange Rate

Throughout the day, the NGN exchange rate appears to be mostly stable with minor fluctuations. At the start of the day at 00:00:02, the exchange rate was valued at 0.00109. This rate remained constant till around 03:40:02, after which, it slightly decreased to 0.00108. This minor decrease persisted for about 12 hours (until 15:30:03). Post that, the exchange rate slightly decreased once again to reach 0.00107 at 14:30:03, and this continued till the end of the day. Therefore, it can be seen that the overall trend for the day was a minor decrease in the NGN exchange rate.

Seasonality and Patterns

As for seasonality or recurring patterns, none can be identified from the given one-day data. It's important to note that a time series needs to cover at least one complete cycle of seasons to be able to determine seasonality, which isn't the case here.

Outliers

Regarding outliers, none are evident in the given dataset. All changes in the data are minor and gradually transitioned over time. There are no sudden, significant spikes or drops observed that would classify as outliers. Therefore, it can be concluded that the fluctuations in the exchange rate for this particular day were rather uniform, without any abnormal variance.

Note that these observations are purely based on the analysis of the provided data, and no external factors such as market opening/closing hours or release of key financial news have been considered. For a more accurate and detailed financial analysis, these additional factors need to be taken into account as they can significantly impact exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Upon initial examination of the data, it appears that over the given period, the NGN (Naira) exchange rates have shown minimal fluctuation. Two key patterns emerged during analysis:

• The exchange rate remained stable at 0.00111 for a timely duration, indicating an initial period of stability in the exchange rate.
• This was followed by a slight dip to 0.00109, where it remained consistent for the next few hours of timestamps.
• It then dipped slightly further down to 0.00106, sustaining at this rate for the next set of timestamps.
• Subsequently, the exchange rate rose back to 0.00109, maintaining this rate until the end of the given period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, no clear identifiable trend can be seen. This may be due to the relatively short time frame observed and/or the granularity of the time series data. Greater temporal scope or more detailed intra-day data might reveal daily or weekly seasonal trends. However, the exchange rates appear to have short intervals of consistency at various values (e.g., 0.00111, 0.00109, and 0.00106), suggesting some degree of recurring patterns within the day.

Outliers

Given the overall stability of the exchange rates within this dataset, there don't appear to be any significant outliers. A rate change itself, in this case, could possibly be considered an outlier, but there are no drastic fluctuations in the rates that diverge significantly from the median value. It shows that during this specific period, the exchange rate remained relatively stable with slight fluctuation.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis Overview

By looking at the provided dataset, we can make some interpretations about the trends, patterns, and anomalies that have taken place over the given date range. Below are the detailed observations:

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

In the provided timeframe, the exchange rate (NGN) appears to remain stable. The exchange rate starts at 0.00111 at the beginning of the timeframe and ends at 0.00111, indicating that no significant change in rates has been experienced during this period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

As the data contains exchange rate information at different time intervals within a single day, a pattern of stability is observed throughout the entire day. No significant fluctuations or indications of seasonal trends are detected in this dataset.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

Two value changes are noticed at '2024-04-23 03:55:02' and at '2024-04-23 06:25:02' where the exchange rate changed from 0.00111 to 0.00109, and from 0.00109 back to 0.00111 respectively. Apart from these instances, the rates remained constant throughout the observation period.

External Factors

As requested, this analysis does not take into account any external influences such as opening and closing hours of the exchange market, weekends or holidays, or any key financial news and reports that could impact the NGN exchange rate.

Forecasting

No forecast for future rates will be provided as per the provided instruction.

Conclusion

Overall, this dataset suggests a stable NGN exchange rate with almost no fluctuation over the given timeframe. The constant pattern suggests a stable economic environment with very little volatility. However, further data would be needed to make a comprehensive conclusion interested in understanding long-term trends and the impacts of external factors.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Looking at the data presented, my analysis involves 1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

Overall Trend Of Exchange Rates

The time series dataset presented shows a constant exchange rate value of 0.00128 for a significant period of the data. After this period, the NGN exchange rate started to decrease, falling to 0.00115 and then depreciating further to 0.00111. The overall trend of the exchange rates in this dataset suggests a stable to slightly decreasing value over the period shown.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates:

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From the provided dataset, it's difficult to discern a clear seasonal or recurring pattern in the exchange rates as the values are mostly constant. There is a possible pattern in the depreciation of rates from 0.00128 to 0.00115 and then to 0.00111, but this pattern is not strong enough to confirm a seasonality.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality:

Significant Outliers

Considering the relatively constant nature of most of the dataset, the instances where the rate depreciates could be considered as outliers. These occur at the moments when the rate changed from 0.00128 to 0.00115, and then further to 0.00111. These changes seem to be significant considering the otherwise stable nature of the exchange rates over much of the dataset.

This analysis focuses solely on the data provided and does not take into account potential external influences such as market dynamics, global economic conditions, or specific events that could impact exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

The dataset provided is a time-series data that highlights the changes in NGN exchange rate from March 22nd, 2024 till April 19th, 2024. On a closer examination, insights were drawn considering the overall trend of the rates, seasonality, and outliers. Please note that no external factors like market openings/closure, weekends/holidays, or release of pivotal financial news and reports have been considered as part of this analysis as requested.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

An observation of the NGN exchange rates shows that the rates have overall increased throughout the period. The rate starts at around 0.00096 on March 22nd, 2024 and increases to reach at 0.00128 by April 19th, 2024. Generally, there are fluctuations throughout the period, but the general trend portrays an increment in the rates.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, a daily pattern is observed where reductions in the exchange rate mostly occur around 12:00 to 14:00. This can be considered as a 'dip' after which there is a relative increase in the rates. However, the extent and frequency of this fluctuation vary throughout the period.

3. Noting Any Outliers in the Exchange Rates

There were several significant changes noticed in the data where the rate differed from the general trend. For instance, there was a significant jump in the exchange rate from 0.0011 to 0.00115 on April 12th, 2024. Additionally, a notable drop can be observed from 0.0012 to 0.00118 between April 17th, 2024 and April 18th, 2024 which contradicts the general increasing trend of the dataset. These can be suggested as outliers within this dataset.

Overall, while making financial decisions based on this dataset, it is pivotal to consider that while the general trend of the exchange rates is increasing, there is notable daily volatility and occasional significant rate changes contradicting the trend.

Please Note

This analysis is performed based solely on the provided dataset. The inclusion of external factors like market operating hours, holidays or financial news updates may influence the actual behaviour of the rates and should be included for a comprehensive forecasting.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The exchange rate data provided kicks off at a rate of 0.00119 at the timestamp '2024-04-15 01:00:02'. As observed, there is a short drop in the following hours until '2024-04-15 04:00:02' where it reaches a minor low at 0.00115 but stabilizes at this value for a few hours. The rate then experiences a slight increase to 0.0012 on '2024-04-15 14:00:03'where it persists for a significant amount of time with minor fluctuations until '2024-04-16 16:00:02' when it goes up to 0.00121. It then evens out at a rate of 0.0012 for a substantial part of the dataset. Towards the end of the dataset, '2024-04-19 04:00:02' to be precise, the rate soars to 0.00124 and subsequently peaks at 0.00128 on '2024-04-19 06:00:02'. The rate experiences a dip at '2024-04-19 07:00:03' to 0.00122 but rises shortly after. There is a significant drop to 0.00119 on '2024-04-19 12:00:03'. Generally, the exchange rate seems to be slightly increasing with several fluctuations along the timeline.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Considering the data provided, it is somewhat challenging to infer any solid seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates solely due to the relatively brief span of the dataset. Due to the nature of financial data, a longer period would be needed to ascertain any seasonality. However, slight upswings can be observed, typically followed by periods of stability or minor downturns.

Outliers Analysis

From the data, few potential outliers can be observed. The notable ones include the sudden spikes observed towards the end of the dataset, particularly the leap from 0.00119 to 0.00124 on '2024-04-19 04:00:02' and then to 0.00128 on '2024-04-19 06:00:02'. Additionally, there is a considerable dip to 0.00119 on '2024-04-19 12:00:03' after a period of relatively higher rates. These instances noticeably deviate from the overall trend of slow change and stability observed in the majority of the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

General Overview

The dataset provided includes timestamped exchange rate data recorded at several intervals within a single day. From an initial examination, we can observe some fundamental patterns and trends within this information.

Trends in Exchange Rates

The general trend of the exchange rates seems quite stable throughout most of the day, with slight upticks and downticks. The rate started at 0.0012, decreased marginally to 0.00119, then increased to 0.00124. It further increased to 0.00128 before decreasing back to 0.00122. There was a little increase to 0.00127, and then it ended at 0.00119.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

A careful analysis of the data patterns doesn't reveal a clear-cut seasonality or recurring pattern in the exchange rates throughout the day. However, a notable observation is that the rates experienced a slight increase during a couple of intervals. These intervals were – between 03:20:02 to 04:55:02, and 05:50:02 to 06:15:02, where the rate went up to 0.00124 and 0.00128 respectively, before reverting to around the average. Another slight increase was observed between 07:45:03 to 11:00:02 where the rate went up to 0.00127 before falling back to 0.00122 and finally ending at 0.00119.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

As for outliers observed in this data set, the rate recorded at 11:40:02 stands out, where the exchange rate abruptly increased to 0.00132 from 0.0012 just before it, and then it quickly fell to 0.00119. Considering the generally stable nature of these rates, this one instance could be seen as an outlier or unusual variance.

In conclusion, while the exchange rates do show slight variances at certain times, the overall rate remains reasonably steady throughout the day. It is important to analyse a larger dataset over a more extended period to come up with more definitive trends, seasonalities, or recurring patterns in the data.