Ethiopian Birr Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rate

    By looking at the given data, it's apparent that the exchange rates (ETB) are demonstrating a gentle, variating trend over the period shown. Although the changes are minor in scale, a gradual increment in the exchange rate is visible. The rate starts at around 0.02395 and ends at around 0.02401, showing a very marginal increase overall.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality and recurring patterns, due to the limited incremental and decremental changes over a short duration, pinpointing a strict pattern could be challenging. However, the data seems to indicate a slight fluctuation happening frequently, maintaining a range of values between a lower and upper limit.

    Outliers in the Data

    When observing the given time-series data, it appears that there are no significant outliers. Most exchange rates stick closely to the main trend, with occasional small fluctuations being the norm. Any significantly large spikes or dips in value that could be designated as outliers are absent within this dataset.

    External Factors

    While we did not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours or the release of key financial reports, it's crucial to note that these aspects could have a significant impact on exchange rates and any observed volatility. For a more in-depth analysis, these factors would have to be taken into account.

    In summary, the ETB exchange rates displayed minor fluctuations within a narrow range over the time frame provided. Although there's a small upwards trend, the absence of notable outliers suggests a somewhat consistent performance for this period, bearing a minuscule fluctuation pattern.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    As observed from the provided data, the ETB exchange rate trends slightly upwards over the recorded period. The rate starts at around 0.02384, and the highest recorded rate is approximately 0.02399. However, this is a very marginal increase. So, while there is a slight upward trend, one might argue that the rate largely remains stable, given the small fluctuation range.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    Given the fine-grained nature of the data, any periodic fluctuations within the day might suggest an intraday seasonality. However, in this dataset, no such clear seasonality or recurring patterns are apparent. This suggests that the ETB exchange rate doesn't show strong predictable patterns within the day in the observed period. HoweverTo confirm this, further statistical tests or visualizations would be needed, which involve techniques beyond the stated scope of this analysis.

    Outliers identification

    Most of the ETB exchange rate values are within the range of approximately 0.02384 - 0.02399 throughout the observation period, and there are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from this range. Therefore, there appear to be no outliers in this dataset based on the trend.

    It should be noted that this is a preliminary analysis based only on the provided data and the stated scope of the analysis. Other factors outside the scope of the analysis, such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports, could potentially influence exchange rates significantly.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Understanding the overall trend

    The analysis of the dataset reveals that the exchange rate (ETB) shows overall stability for the given timestamp observations. The exchange rate starts at 0.0238 on 2024-02-26 at the timestamp 00:00:02 and ends at the same rate i.e., 0.0238, on 2024-02-26 at the timestamp 23:55:02. However, there is a slight fluctuation in the rates in between these timestamps. At some points, there is a slight increase or decrease in rates but they eventually revert to their starting point.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    From the given dataset, it's hard to clearly determine any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates (ETB), especially because the data only spans a single day. For clearer seasonality identification, a longer time period would be needed. But in general, the exchange rate seems to maintain a small flux in magnitude emphasizing a hint of stationarity. The absence of an identifiable increasing or decreasing trend also supports this observation.

    Noting any outliers

    Upon analyzing the given dataset, it appears that there are no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate varies greatly from the expected rate based on the general trend. The fluctuation remains quite stable throughout the period with only minor shifts which are typical in financial exchange rate data.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    The exchange rate data provided does not include enough information to analyse for seasonality, recurring patterns, outliers, or consider the impact of specific external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports as these require longer duration of consistent data. However, we can still make a few observations based on the given data:

    Overall Trend

    Based on the data provided, the overall trend of the exchange rate appears to be mostly stable. There are slight fluctuations in the rates, but the rate generally ranges between 0.0236 and 0.02404. There are minor increases and decreases which appear to be normal for financial data, particularly exchange rates. There is no sharp or consistent climb or decline in value that implies a definite increasing or decreasing trend in this dataset.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Given the limited data and the fact that it seems to range over a relatively short period, it is difficult to identify seasonal factors or recurring patterns. In-depth analysis of this nature would require a large data set spanning across different seasons or annual periods.

    Outliers

    Similarly, without more contextual information or a specific definition for what would be considered a significant deviation, it's challenging to identify outliers in this dataset. Again, none of the data points appears to significantly deviate from the typical trading range of the data provided.

    In this instance, a larger and more consistent dataset is required to provide a more thorough trend analysis, detect recurring patterns and identify possible outliers. Unfortunately, without this, any analysis would be based on general observations and may not be entirely accurate or helpful.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon analyzing the given dataset, it can be observed that there isn't a significant upward or downward trend in ETB exchange rates over the specified period. Instead, the rates remain relatively stable. There are fluctuations, but the variations are minimal and lie within a very tight range. Thus, the overall trend of the exchange rates can be characterized as stable.

    Identifying Seasonality

    In terms of seasonality, the dataset spans a short-term period, limiting the scope for identifying any pronounced recurring seasonal patterns. However, a subtle cyclical pattern can be observed within a day's period. There are several instances where the exchange rate demonstrates a slight increase during certain hours of the day followed by decreases or stabilization.

    Analysis of Outliers

    The examination of the dataset didn't reveal significant outliers. The exchange rates mostly stay within a tight range and do not exhibit any substantial spikes or drops that would have marked them as outliers. Any minor fluctuations in the data can more likely be attributed to normal market volatility, as opposed to being marked as outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Below is the comprehensive analysis of the provided ETB exchange rate dataset in accordance with the goals: understanding the overall trend, identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns, and noting any outliers.

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

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    The provided ETB exchange rate data exhibits a minor upward trend from approx. 0.0237 to 0.0238 over the observed period. However, the general stability of the rates is quite evident as the changes between the highest and lowest points are very minimal, indicating a low volatility during this period.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    As the dataset covers a period of a single day, it is challenging to accurately identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. Within a single day, exchange rates can be influenced by various short-term events and trading activities which may not necessarily indicate longer-term patterns. That said, within the given day, there doesn't appear to be any noticeable pattern in the ETB exchange rate. It fluctuates within a very tight range with no clear cyclical movement.

    3. Noting any outliers

    Looking at the provided dataset, there doesn't seem to be any considerable outliers or instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from its general behaviour. All rates fall within the narrow range between approx. 0.0237 and 0.0238, with no extreme highs or lows observed. Thus, it can be concluded that the series shows a generally stable behaviour with almost no unexpected fluctuations or anomalies.

    Note: This analysis is purely based on the provided data and does not take into account external market factors that may significantly influence the exchange rates such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.