Ethiopian Birr Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

From the given dataset, it appears that the overall trend of the exchange rates (ETB) fluctuates in an almost stable manner. The highest rate observed in the dataset is 0.02412, whilst the lowest rate observed is 0.02387. A majority of the rates seem to linger around 0.02400 - 0.02411 implying a relatively moderate performance of the exchange rates over time. It's important to note that an in-depth study using timeseries methods or visualization could provide more precise insights on the trend's direction.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, the data provided doesn't cover a long enough period to determine the existence of any seasonality in the exchange rates. To confirm such patterns, we need data covering multiple cycles of the period in question (generally a year). However, if the provided dataset is representative of a repetitive pattern over a 24-hour period, there seem to be slight depreciations and appreciations of the exchange rate but not a significant fluctuation.

Identifying Outliers

Given the nature of the data and its relatively stable behavior, it is challenging to pinpoint explicit outliers without a computed measure of dispersion, such as the standard deviation or interquartile range (IQR). Also, some variations could still occur due to numerous market events.

All in all, the given dataset shows a relatively moderate and stable trend in exchange rates, with minor noticeable changes over time. Please note that these are descriptive findings and a deeper inferential analysis would require a more robust statistical evaluation.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend on Exchange Rates

From the provided dataset, the exchange rates observed show minor fluctuations over the given period. Overall, the exchange rate data seems to demonstrate a slightly volatile yet generally stable trend.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not reveal any clear or distinct patterns. The exchange rates fluctuate slightly but remain in a close range. This suggests that the exchange rates may not be greatly impacted by the time of day or specific recurrent events during the period observed.

3. Noting Any Outliers in the Data

In observing the record of exchange rates, there are no significant outliers or of instances where the exchange rate differs significantly. Most of the exchange rates range in a tight frame around 0.024. This means that the exchange rate remains fairly stable and consistent throughout the period, with no anomalous peaks or troughs.

One thing to note, however, is that this analysis is subject to the accuracy and reliability of the data provided. Errors in data collection may result in anomalies that are not representative of actual exchange rate patterns.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates (ETB)

After analyzing the ETB exchange rate against time-series data, it is observed that the rates appear relatively stable. They initially stick close to the values of 0.02408 and 0.02409 for a considerable duration. Then the rate achieved a peak at 0.02411 on 2024-04-23 05:10:02. However, immediately after that peak, there was a downtrend that gradually reached the lowest point, with rates falling to 0.02391. After the drop, the rates again started rising and ended at 0.02412.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From the time-series data presented, the concept of seasonality or intraday patterns was quite tricky to identify. Since the data provided is within a single day, it's difficult to establish significant recurring day-to-day or month-to-month patterns or trends in the ETB exchange rate. Nonetheless, there's minute intraday fluctuation observed.

3. Noting Any Outliers

For the purpose of this analysis, the outliers are those observations that lie an abnormal distance from other values in a random sample from that population. For this dataset, there isn't a significant fluctuation in the rates that could depict the occurrence of any robust outliers.

One condition to note, though, is the slight rise at 2024-04-23 05:10:02 (the peak) where the rate hiked to 0.02411 from 0.0241, and a drop at 2024-04-23 11:00:03 when the rates fell to 0.02394 from 0.02405.

While these instances show a slightly higher change rate compared to the rest of the data, they are not extreme enough to be considered solid outliers.

It's important to note that given the nature of exchange rates, which can be affected by numerous unpredictable factors external to this dataset, occasional fluctuations (although not observed here) can be expected and may not always be considered outliers.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Of The Exchange Rates

The exchange rate of the ETB over the period in question generally experiences minimal fluctuations. It starts at a value of 0.02418 at the beginning and several changes occur throughout, with minimal increases and decreases. However, it significantly declines to 0.02397 once, before it increases slightly and eventually ends at 0.02408. Overall, the trend appears to be relatively stable with minor oscillations.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns In The Changes Of ETB Exchange Rates

Looking at the data, there doesn't appear to be a clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate values. The changes don't show a consistent pattern repeated at specific regular intervals over time. This could suggest that the ETB exchange rate is influenced by a multitude of unpredictable factors, such as varying financial situations.

Outliers In ETB Exchange Rates

From the data provided, we are not able to identify any significant outliers, as most of the exchange rates fluctuate within a very tight range. The most drastic change noticed was a drop to 0.02397, which can be considered as a slight deviation instead of a significant outlier. All other exchange rates remain fairly close to each other, within a range of 0.02397 and 0.02419.

This analysis doesn't consider specific events or external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports since the data provided does not allow for this level of interpretation. This analysis focuses solely on the numerical data and trends provided.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Before diving into the analysis, it's important to note that this data set represents the changes in exchange rates (ETB) across different timestamps from 22nd March 2024 to 19th April 2024. However, the data seems to have some irregular intervals. There is no consistent interval between each data point, with some hours appearing to be missing entirely.

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The general trend in the exchange rate data appears to be very slightly upward, but it had several up and down fluctuations within this relatively short period. The exchange rate starts at 0.02375 on 22nd March 2024 and ends at 0.02406 on 19th April 2024. However, the increase is minimal, and the rate remains largely stable over the period given, with most values staying within the 0.0237-0.0243 range.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, it's quite difficult to pinpoint clear patterns over the short period covered by the data. However, there are some periods where the exchange rate seems to slightly increase, followed by slight decreases. This could suggest a potential cyclical pattern, but the exact nature of these cycles -- their duration, magnitude, or triggers -- is unclear from the data provided.

Outliers and Notable Instances

There are no significant outliers in the provided data, with most values lying within a narrow range. Still, it's worth noting that the highest recorded exchange rate was 0.02432 on 16th April 2024, while the lowest was 0.02372 on 4th April 2024. There were also several instances where the exchange rate remained stable for several consecutive data points, followed by a slight change, hinting at a potential plateau effect.

A further, more detailed analysis could uncover additional trends and patterns, and using a longer period could potentially reveal long-term trends or recurring annual patterns. Meanwhile, it is also essential to factor in the gap in the data and inconsistencies in the intervals when interpreting these results.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The dataset provided indicates a subtle variation in the exchange rate (ETB) over time. The range of these variations appears to be between 0.02407 and 0.02432. The overall trend appears to lack a decisive upward or downward movement. There is a zigzag trend, with the exchange rate going up and down intermittently, albeit within a relatively tight range. This could potentially signify a market that is closer to equilibrium, as the supply and demand for the currency appear to be balanced in the period under investigation.

Seasonality and Recurring Pattern Identification

Given the provided data, there doesn't appear to be a strong indication of any discernible seasonality or recurring patterns. The fluctuations in the exchange rate seem random, without any noticeable repetition or routine increase or decrease at specific times. However, it's worth noting that the data spans over a short period. A dataset covering a longer period might reveal seasonal variations or cyclical trends more clearly.

Outlier Identification

No prominent outliers are visible in the dataset provided. The ETB exchange rates remain within a narrow band throughout the duration. Any temporary deviations from the mean value are minor and promptly correct themselves, which reinforces the concept of a balanced market. However, a more comprehensive statistical analysis might reveal subtle outliers not immediately apparent in a simple review.

Conclusion

Overall, the exchange rate between the given currencies over the specified period appears stable with minor fluctuations. There is no observable pattern or seasonality, and no significant outliers were identified. While such stability can be beneficial for mitigating exchange rate risk, the absence of a pronounced trend also eliminates opportunities to profit from anticipated directional movements.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

When examining the exchange rates over the provided timestamp, we notice an overall very slight increase. The value starts at 0.02412 and eventually reaches 0.02408, indicating a small uptrend in the data over the recorded period. It is important to note, however, that this increase is rather gradual and small, with numerous fluctuations occurring throughout the time period.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

An examination of the time series data does not immediately reveal any explicit seasonality or repeating patterns. The exchange rates largely hover around a similar value, with some fluctuations but not a clear repeating cycle. However, further statistical analysis may uncover more subtle cycles or trends in the data.

3. Notable Outliers

Within the provided data, there are no significant outliers wherein the exchange rate differs dramatically from the overall trend. The values consistently stay within a relatively narrow bandwidth. However, there are minor fluctuations visible in the data, which are characteristic of financial data and could be related to various factors such as market transactions, economic events, or other external market factors.

It's worth noting that an outlier in this context would be an exchange rate significantly different from those around it, for example, a sudden large increase or decrease. Although there are slight fluctuations in the data, there are none that deviate exceptionally from the overall trend and would be classified as outliers.

Also noteworthy is that there were slight spikes in the exchange rate at around 6:25, showing an increase from 0.02412 to 0.02423, and then it dropped back to the usual rates later. This might be something interesting to look into further.

Given the limited range of data and the absence of dramatic fluctuations or outliers, the analysis is quite straightforward. The exchange rate shows slight but consistent increases over the period, without significant anomalies or outliers, and no immediately visible instances of seasonality.