Indian Rupee Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Analyzing Overall Trend

    Firstly, I noticed that the overall trend of the exchange rate over the period shown in the dataset appears to be slightly upward. This is indicated by the exchange rate starting at 0.01637 at the beginning of the time period and ending at 0.01638. It is worth mentioning that although there is a minor increase in the exchange rate, the fluctuation is quite stable and there is no dramatic change.

    Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Seasonality or recurring patterns can sometimes be observed in financial time series data. However, from my observation of this dataset, such patterns don't appear to be significant. The exchange rate tends to fluctuate around 0.01637 and 0.01638 without any clear recurring trend on an intraday basis. This suggests that the exchange rate may be more influenced by irregular factors than by time-dependent, systematic factors.

    Noting Outliers

    In time series data, outliers or instances where the data points significantly deviate from the trend are essential to identify as they might indicate special events. From the provided dataset, it is observed that there are no notable outliers. The exchange rates data points are quite consistent with minor variations.

    Please note that the analysis was conducted without taking into consideration of external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Before delving into the numerical analysis of the dataset, it is crucial to contextualize the data at hand. We're dealing with a timestamped exchange rate data (INR) ranging from 00:00 (midnight) on February 28, 2024, to 23:55 (one slot before midnight) on the same date.

    1. Understanding the Trend of the Exchange Rates:

    The data indicates subtle yet discernable fluctuation pattern throughout the given day. It starts at 0.01634, indicating a period of stability for about an hour. It then moves up, with some minor volatile points, reaching a high of 0.01641 in the 7:00 - 8:00 timeframe before decreasing again till 8:05. The trend rises slightly until reaching a peak value of 0.0164 at 6:50, and following a dip, it reaches another peak value of 0.01641 at 7:00. Thereafter, we witness a decline, and eventually, it seems to stabilize again around 0.01637 - 0.01638 for the remainder of the day.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

    Existing data set doesn't seem to exhibit clear or strong seasonal patterns as it contains only data for a single day. So there is insufficient data to make seasonal assertions or to identify potential recurring patterns linked to specific times of the day or week. Moreover, given the nature of exchange rates that are influenced by a wide variety of national and international economic factors, it would be rare to identify clear seasonal patterns without taking those influences into account.

    3. Noting Outliers:

    From the provided data set, there doesn't appear to be any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs drastically from the overall observed trend. All values fall within a narrow range of 0.01634 to 0.01641. However, this analysis is constrained by the fact that it considers only numerical data and does not account for the potential impacts of significant events or news that could affect exchange rates.

    In conclusion, a more comprehensive analysis of exchange rate trends would benefit from a longer timeframe and should consider external events and factors that could significantly impact exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall trend of the exchange rates

    Based on the timestamped data provided, the INR exchange rate remains remarkably stable over the given time period. The rate begins at 0.0163 at midnight Feb 26, 2024, and ends also at 0.01629 by midnight on the same day. There is a slight fluctuation throughout this time, reaching a peak of 0.01632 and a low of 0.01629, which demonstrates a minuscule degree of volatility during the one-day period. However, this variation is minor and the rate stays relatively stable around 0.0163 for the entire day.

    Recurring patterns and seasonality in the changes of exchange rates

    Given the dataset only covers a 24-hour period, it is challenging to identify seasonality or established recurring patterns. Seasonality often requires longer periods, usually over months or years, to establish. However, slight increase can be viewed around 02:05 AM to 03:55 AM and a minor decrease around 08:00 AM and 14:30 PM which could imply some reaction to the opening and closing of international financial markets, but this would require further data and analysis to confirm.

    Noted outliers in the exchange rates

    Within the given dataset and time period, no specific outliers can be observed. The changes that do occur stay within a minor range, and no significant jumps or dips are present that would suggest an anomaly or unexpected fluctuation. Overall, the INR exchange rate demonstrates a steady consistency throughout this time frame.

    Overall Analysis Conclusion

    In conclusion, the overall trend for this single-day time period suggests that the INR exchange rate is relatively stable with a minor degree of fluctuation that falls within a very narrow range. While more data would be needed to determine recurring patterns and any seasonality, this period falls within expectations for a typical day without major financial announcements or activities.

Summary of Last Week

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The data provided shows that the exchange rates have fluctuated slightly over the given period, however, the overall trend seems to be fairly stable. The exchange rate values range from approximately 0.01609 to 0.01634, which implies slight fluctuations, but does not indicate a definite increasing or decreasing trend.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    This dataset does not provide sufficient information to decisively identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. The hourly timestamp data would need to be compared over a longer period to confirm or deny the presence of seasonality or recurring patterns. Currently, the data only spans roughly over a month, which is not enough to draw definitive conclusions about seasonal trends.

    Outliers in the dataset

    An outlier in this context would be a drastic or unexpected change in the exchange rate that doesn't fit the general trend. Considering the provided exchange rates and given timestamps, there are no significant jumps or drops. All changes in the exchange rates are small and incremental without any drastic fluctuation. Therefore, there are no noticeable outliers in this data set.

    External Factors

    As per the instructions, this analysis does not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of financial news and reports. Therefore, the analysis is purely based on the provided data and does not consider the possible impact of said external factors on the exchange rates. However, in a real-world scenario, these factors can greatly influence exchange rates.

    Note: The interpretation of this data may vary based on the specific goals and use case of the analysis. For a more detailed understanding of the trends, further statistical analysis may be required.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Overall, the exchange rates witnessed a slight increasing trend from 0.01624 on 2024-02-19 to 0.01629 on 2024-02-23, which indicates a gradual rise in the INR exchange rate over time. The rise is, however, very marginal implying a relatively stable currency exchange market during this period.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    It is a bit challenging to find a precise seasonal pattern in such a short span of data as provided, however, a daily fluctuation could be observed. The rates, in general, appear to decrease slightly in the early morning hours and then incrementally increase during the remainder of the day. However, more data over extended time periods (months or years) would provide a more accurate determination of any seasonality or recurring patterns.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    Throughout the provided period, the range of variation in the INR exchange rate appears to be quite narrow from a lowest of 0.01622 to a highest of 0.01632. Given these subtle fluctuations, there don't seem to be any major outliers in the data set or instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the general trend. This implies that the INR exchange rate has been quite stable during this period with no significant disruptions.

    It's important to note that the time intervals in the data set provided are not evenly distributed either which might also sway the above interpretations slightly.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Based on the dataset provided, the overall trend of the INR exchange rate fluctuates moderately on a small scale. It starts with an initial value of 0.01627 and ends at 0.01629. An analysis of the data indicates minor fluctuations between these two values, indicative of a relatively stable exchange rate over the time period suggested by the dataset.

    Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The dataset does not cover a wide enough time frame to clearly identify any seasonal patterns or long-term recurring trends. However, there are slight oscillations in the exchange rate, with slight increases followed by decreases, indicating some degree of hourly variability. These, however, do not amount to clear, strongly defined patterns, and the overall trend appears to be more random than cyclical.

    Noting Any Outliers

    Given the relatively stable range within which the exchange rate fluctuates in the provided dataset, there do not appear to exist any significant outliers. This means that all recorded values are fairly consistent with the overall pacing and do not deviate unusually from the neighbouring time points values.

    External Factors

    This analysis does not take into account potential impacts due to external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Such factors could potentially introduce volatilities in the exchange rate that this given dataset might not fully capture.

    Please note that while this offers a useful insight into the data trends within the dataset's time-frame, it doesn't necessarily predict future exchange rates.