Iceland Krona Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Summary of the data:

The data provided contain the timestamps and corresponding exchange rates (ISK) starting from 2024-04-25 00:00:02 through till 2024-04-25 23:55:02. The exchange rate data are typically uniform with subtle variations.

Overall trend:

The overall trend of the exchange rates for this one-day interval is relatively stable. The values started at 0.00977 and ended at 0.00975. There were minor fluctuations during the day. The minimal exchange rate was 0.00974, and the maximum was 0.00979. However, these values do not significantly deviate from the majority of the data set.

Seasonality and recurring patterns:

Given the data is restricted to one 24-hour time-period, it is challenging to identify any distinct seasonality or recurring patterns accurately. Daily data for a more extended period is required to accurately recognize such patterns or trends. In terms of hourly variation, the rate seems to marginally fall towards the end of each hour.

Outliers:

In terms of outliers, no notable instances were found where the exchange rate differed significantly from the rest of the data. As previously explained, the rate maintained a narrow range between 0.00974 and 0.00979.

Note: This analysis assumes that other influential factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports have been discounted. Longer-term, more extensive data set would allow for more detailed, accurate, and comprehensive analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Unfortunately, as an artificial text-based model, I lack the ability to process or analyze datasets directly. However, I'd like to offer a qualitative guideline on how you could approach this task using data analytical techniques.

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Start with a basic plot of the exchange rate over time to visualize the overall trend. The X-axis should present 'date_at' values (timestamps) and the Y-axis should plot 'isk' values; the exchange rates. If the line generally goes upward, it indicates that the exchange rate is increasing over time. If it's heading downward, the rate is decreasing. A flat line indicates stable rates. Implementing a trend line or using techniques like moving averages could aid in better discerning the overall trend.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Seasonal decomposition could be used to identify any recurring patterns in your data which suggest seasonality. This technique disentangles the time series into three components: trend, seasonality, and residuals. Regular peaks or troughs in the seasonality component would denote a seasonal pattern.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

Outliers can be determined by examining the residuals from the seasonal decomposition. Points that stand out from the general distribution of residuals could indicate outliers. Box plots and standard deviation methods could also be useful in detecting outliers.

Although you've requested not to consider factors such as market hours or financial news, it's crucial to remember that in a real-world setting, these factors can significantly affect exchange rates.

Remember that these are only guidelines and that it's crucial to validate any findings. Also, remember that financial data can be noisy and subject to unpredictable influences outside the scope of this basic analysis. A comprehensive data analysis would benefit from a detailed understanding of econometrics and the factor influences within an exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Based on the provided dataset, the ISK exchange rate appears fairly stable throughout the time range. It begins on 2024-04-23 at a rate of 0.00971 and ends the same day at a rate of 0.00973. While there are minor fluctuations in the exchange rate value, the rate does not show any significant increases or decreases over the period. The changes are subtle and gradual, suggesting a stable exchange rate for the ISK within this time frame.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, the dataset does not cover a sufficient span of time to derive definitive conclusions about these aspects. The data covers less than a 24-hour period, which makes it challenging to extrapolate larger cyclical trends or significant seasonal fluctuations. It would require a more extended dataset, covering at least a few weeks or months, to affectively identify seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate.

3. Noting Any Outliers

From the data provided, no significant outliers are visible. An 'outlier' in this context would be a rate that deviates significantly from the others around the same time. All values provided are relatively close to each other, with the most substantial difference being 0.00003, which is hardly significant in an exchange rate context. Therefore, it can be said that the ISK exchange rate remained quite stable and consistent with no drastic spikes or drops within the given timeframe.

Please note that this analysis disregarded external influences such as market opening and closing hours, weekends, holidays, or the release of significant financial news and reports. Given more diverse and long-span data, the influence of such factors could be explored in more detail and might yield different insights.

Summary of Last Month

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Analysis of the ISK exchange rate dataset

Based on the given data sample, here's my analysis:

1. Trend Analysis

The ISK exchange rate seems relatively stable all through the timestamps provided. It fluctuates slightly within a small range of 0.0097 to 0.00974. There aren't any detectable trends suggesting a consistent increase or decrease during the time period covered in the dataset.

2. Seasonality Analysis

The dataset does not show discernible signs of seasonality, recurring patterns, or cyclic behaviour at a glance. The exchange rate stayed flat many times, and when it did fluctuate, it didn't follow a clear, repeated pattern.

3. Outliers Identification

Based on the provided data, there don't seem to be any significant outliers. The values are all within a very close range of each other, so no single data point is considerably distant from the others.

Summary

The ISK exchange rates appear to be very stable throughout the data range, with only slight fluctuations and no clear seasonal patterns or trends. The interventions of a central bank could have contributed to the stable currency rate. However, external influences such as macroeconomic indicators, political events, and changes in the international market cannot be ruled out as potential impact factors on the ISK rate—these are beyond the scope of this analysis. For a more in-depth analysis, larger data sets encompassing longer spans of time and more diverse market conditions would be beneficial.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The provided data spans across several different timestamps. A quick observation reveals that the ISK exchange rates have a gentle oscillating pattern throughout the time period. The rates started at 0.00989 on March 22nd, 2024, and ended at 0.00973 on April 19, 2024, suggesting a slight overall decrease in the exchange rate over the course of approximately one month. However, the changes in the exchange rate aren't drastic and mostly remain in the range of 0.00972 to 0.00989.

2. Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Upon close inspection of the dataset, it appears that there are subtle recurring patterns in the changes of the exchange rates. The rates appear to fluctuate up and down, but these fluctuations do not seem large enough to establish concrete periodic patterns or seasonality. This variability in the rates over short periods might be due to the normal functioning of the forex market where rates are influenced by supply and demand factors on a minute-by-minute basis. Therefore, further mathematical analysis is necessary to confirm the presence of any seasonality in these patterns.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the trend or seasonality

Considering the entire dataset, an immediate outlier isn't evident. The ISK exchange rate maintains a relatively close range throughout the timespan and doesn't exhibit any dramatic spikes or drops. However, it should be noted that exchange rate data are typically noisy due to the interaction of numerous macroeconomic factors. Therefore, what might appear as slight changes could potentially be significant in a forex trader's perspective. Confirmation of outliers would require a more rigorous statistical or data-driven approach.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Over the period shown, the exchange rate (ISK) appears to show a slight trend of increasing. The broader trend is not significantly decisive, starting at approximately 0.00972 and ultimately ending around 0.00975, but the general direction is upwards. There are, however, minor fluctuations throughout this period offering a bit of volatility.

Identifying Seasonality

In terms of seasonality, there doesn't seem to be a clear, recurring pattern in the changes in exchange rates based on the given data. The changes are indeed very minute and don’t demonstrate any obvious cyclical or seasonal behavior. It's important to note that a more extended period might be needed to accurately detect any possible seasonality.

Noting Outliers

In the dataset, there don't appear to be any significant outliers. The values seem to fall within a relatively tight range, with the lowest being 0.00970 and the highest at 0.00978. This finding can be indicative of a stable exchange rate within the given period without abrupt large-scale deviations.

External Factors Consideration

As per the specified request, the analysis doesn't consider any specific external factors like market opening and closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Thus, potential impacts from these aspects were not included. It is worth mentioning, though, that such factors could potentially influence the exchange rate patterns and trends.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From the dataset provided, it can be observed that the currency exchange rate (ISK) mostly remains stable in a tight range between 0.00973 and 0.00976. This suggests that during the observed period, the exchange rate neither exhibited a clear trend of increase nor decrease, implying the exchange rate of ISK has been relatively stable.

2. Seasonal Patterns in Exchange Rates

The dataset does not appear to show any obvious seasonal or recurring pattern in the exchange rates. There were slight fluctuations in values at some instances but these changes don't seem to repeat at regular intervals, hence suggesting lack of any noticeable seasonality or recurring patterns. To ascertain a seasonality, longer spans of data including full cycles of seasons would be required. Given the limited data, only minuscule exchange rate shifts were possible which are may not attribute to seasonal patterns.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Based on the dataset, outlying instances in the exchange rates are limited. The data remains in a tightly bound range without any significant spikes or dips. Thus, no significant outliers were spotted which could impose a different interpretation to the overall trend. This highlights a relatively low volatility in the currency exchange rate during this specific time frame.

In conclusion, the exchange rate between the observed time frames depicts a sturdy and stable pattern, with negligible seasonality and outliers. For a more comprehensive understanding and identification of trends, seasonality, and outliers, an expanded time-frame and more diverse data points would be necessary.