Balboa Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Analyzing the Overall Trend:

    Looking at the data provided, it seems like the exchange rates are experiencing minor fluctuations on a periodic basis. Exchange rates started at 1.35914 at the moment of the first record, peaked at 1.36087 within the next 7 hours, and then dipped to 1.35372 around 9 hours. The rates slightly recovered and kept oscillating with a gradual decrease until it reached 1.35456 near the end of the data provided. Thus, the overall trend can be described as slightly volatile with a slight downward bias throughout the day.

    2. Recognizing Seasonality and Patterns:

    Given the short time-frame (just about one day), it can be challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. The data might need to be examined across multiple days or weeks to capture any possible seasonal effect. However, some patterns that can be recognized based on this data are the fluctuation peaks and troughs happening at intervals. Outside of these, no significant cyclical or seasonal patterns can be identified from the data.

    3. Highlighting outliers:

    One potential outlier in the data provided occurs around 06:20:01 as the exchange rate fell from 1.36064 down to 1.35847. This was followed by an immediate recovery to 1.35867. Another potential outlier is the sudden dip that started around 07:40:02, with the rate falling from 1.35745 down to a low of 1.35395 at 09:05:03. The rate then steadily recovered reaching another peak at 15:25:03 with 1.35727. These sharp decreases followed by a quick recovery might indicate anomalies or outliers in the exchange rates during these periods.

    Summary

    In conclusion, when examining this data, it is evident that while there are fluctuations in the exchange rate throughout the day, the general trend observed in this data is a small downward bias. Despite some significant drops and recoveries, the exchange rate remained between 1.35372 and 1.36087. Current data does not show any clear seasonality or recurrence, and any anomalies or external factors leading to sudden changes need further exploration. However, it's essential to analyze it with a larger set and consider external factors for a more accurate interpretation.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    Reviewing the dataset, the overall trend of the PAB exchange rate over time seems to increase. From a value of 1.35263 at the start time (2024-02-28 00:00:02), the exchange rate rises to a final value of 1.35887 by the end time (2024-02-28 23:55:02). However, note that the trend is not strictly linear and does present periods of upswings and downswings.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Speaking of the short-term recurring patterns or intra-day seasonality in the PAB exchange rate, there seems to be a pattern of rates increasing during the later part of the hour and decreasing slightly at the start. However, to establish the robustness of this pattern, a larger dataset encompassing more days would be helpful. For longer-term seasonality (daily or weekly), due to limited data (only one day in this dataset), such patterns cannot be established.

    3. Identification of Outliers

    Variations in exchange rates are quite common; however, some notable spikes and dips are worth considering as potential outliers. For instance, an abrupt increase is observed from 1.35536 to 1.35837 between 2024-02-28 06:15:02 to 2024-02-28 06:20:02. Similarly, there's a fall from 1.36104 to 1.35953 from 2024-02-28 19:55:03 to 2024-02-28 20:05:02. More drastic singular events like these can suggest possible outlier occurrence, but they could also be attributed to unseen factors not included in this dataset.

    Beyond the above analysis, it is vital to consider accompanying factors that heavily influence exchange rate movements such as geopolitical events, economic indicators, interest rates, and inflation which are not included in this dataset. Hence, this analysis is purely based on the historical data provided and should not be used for forecasting future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of Exchange Rate Dataset

    This dataset provided consists of time-series data documenting changes in the exchange rate, or PAB. In order to better understand the information presented here, let's delve into a step-by-step explanation and analysis of the dataset.

    1. Trend Analysis

    Upon review of the data, the trend of the exchange rate appears to be fairly stable. It starts off at 1.34969, fluctuates slightly within a similar range, and ultimately, ends at 1.35006. These fluctuations, however, remain within a very tight band. There is no significant overall rise or decline in the exchange rate value across the timeframe the data represents. Therefore, the trend can be classified as broadly stable.

    2. Seasonality

    Time-series data can often exhibit seasonal behavior, meaning exchange rates might consistently increase, decrease, or remain stable at specific times. With the data provided, it's difficult to assess any clear seasonality in the exchange rates without additional historical context or longer-term data. The exchange rates appear to fluctuate within a similar range without any clear recurring patterns. Thus, no definitive seasonal tendencies can be identified from this dataset.

    3. Outliers Identification

    Outliers are data points significantly different from others in the dataset and can greatly affect the results of the data analysis. Looking at the figures in the dataset, no significant outliers are observed. The data seems to maintain a tight band of fluctuations without any obvious anomalies or unexpected values.

    The analysis and outputs mentioned above are based on the information provided in the dataset and do not consider external factors like market opening and closing hours, weekends or holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Such factors typically heavily impact exchange rates fluctuations and for a comprehensive analysis, they should be considered.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    We start by evaluating the overall trend of the provided time-series dataset of exchange rates (PAB). Over the given time, exchange rates appear to fluctuate, showing both rising and falling trends. However, specific analysis requires a calculation of the average slope over the period. Any positive slope suggests an overall increase in exchange rates while any negative suggests a decrease. If the slope is near or exactly zero, the rates could be considered stable.

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns typically requires looking for consistent upturns and downturns at regular intervals. These can be hour-to-hour, day-to-day, week-to-week, and more. However, given the nature of currency exchange markets, which are majorly influenced by geopolitical events, economic policies, and market speculation, perfect seasonality may not exist. Nonetheless, some patterns might still be noticed. However, this requires detailed time-based grouping and analysis, using techniques like autocorrelation. For instance, the rates may prove to be consistently high or low around certain hours if comparing on an hourly basis.

    Noting Outliers

    Outliers in exchange rate data might be unusually high or low rates that do not coincide with the overall trend or seasonality. These could be due to unusual market incidents or extreme fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Spotting outliers requires statistical analysis, where data points that fall significantly outside of defined 'normal' bounds (like multi-standard deviations away from mean/median) are identified as outliers. However, in currency markets, outliers might still be within believable fluctuations. Therefore, identifying outliers requires a keen understanding of feasible forex rate shifts.

    External Factors

    Though this analysis does not consider the impact of external factors, it's crucial to note that foreign exchange rates are significantly influenced by external market factors. These include changes in monetary policies, economic indicators, geopolitical events, market opening/closing hours, and the release of key financial news and reports, among other factors. These factors can lead to meaningful shifts in the rates that can't be covered by this numeric trend analysis alone.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    From the provided dataset, it appears that the exchange rate has experienced slight fluctuations over the observed period. There is a notable upward and downward movement, suggesting that exchange rates are variable and non-static during this period.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The data does not show any clear evidence of seasonality or recurring patterns. However, the minor fluctuations indicate a possible daily pattern where the rates slightly move up and down within each day. Nonetheless, a more detailed review would be necessary for a conclusive determination of any true seasonality.

    3. Outliers and Significant Deviations

    While some data points show larger jumps than others, these are more indicative of the variable nature of exchange rates rather than outliers in the traditional sense. As exchange rates can be influenced by numerous micro and macro-economic factors, such variations are to be expected. No significant instance where the exchange rate differs greatly from the trend is observed in the dataset.

    It is crucial to note that this analysis is based solely on the time-series data provided. As instructed, other factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, which could potentially influence exchange rates, were not considered in this overview.

    Also, the analysis has not generated any forecasts for future rates, in line with the instructions. This analysis provides a general understanding of trends and patterns in the data; for a more in-depth and predictive analysis, additional financial modeling would be applicable.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    At a glance, it seems that the exchange rates are showing some form of inconsistency across the given timestamp. The trend starts with a value of 1.34428 and fluctuates throughout, reaching a high of approximately 1.3513 midway, before closing at around 1.34994. This sort of pattern shows that the exchange rates are experiencing a slight increase overall, but with a lot of volatility.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the data provided, it is quite difficult to pinpoint any definitive seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rates showcase a high level of fluctuation, with sporadic highs and lows at different periods. Due to this inconsistency, it's hard to ascertain a particular monthly, weekly or daily pattern in the exchange rate changes. This might suggest that the exchange rate could be influenced by factors other than temporal variables.

    Notable Outliers

    • There is a significant upjump around the time 2024-02-23 06:20:02 to 1.34766 from the previous value 1.34419. This is an unusual spike in the data.
    • Around the timestamp 2024-02-23 09:15:03, the data hit a high point of 1.34949. This could be considered an outlier as it differs significantly compared to the values before and after it.
    • Similarly, near the end of the period, around 2024-02-23 10:20:03 we see another spike to 1.3513 which is the highest value in the entire series. This point can also be considered an outlier.

    Please note that while these points seem to deviate from the general trend, they aren't necessarily errors or inaccuracies. They could very well be instances where the exchange rate was influenced by unpredictable external variables not considered for this analysis.