Summary of Last Week
- Difference of Opening & Closing:
- Daily High:
- Daily Low:
- Difference of Daily High & Low:
- Standard Deviation:
Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates
We start by evaluating the overall trend of the provided time-series dataset of exchange rates (PAB). Over the given time, exchange rates appear to fluctuate, showing both rising and falling trends. However, specific analysis requires a calculation of the average slope over the period. Any positive slope suggests an overall increase in exchange rates while any negative suggests a decrease. If the slope is near or exactly zero, the rates could be considered stable.
Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns
Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns typically requires looking for consistent upturns and downturns at regular intervals. These can be hour-to-hour, day-to-day, week-to-week, and more. However, given the nature of currency exchange markets, which are majorly influenced by geopolitical events, economic policies, and market speculation, perfect seasonality may not exist. Nonetheless, some patterns might still be noticed. However, this requires detailed time-based grouping and analysis, using techniques like autocorrelation. For instance, the rates may prove to be consistently high or low around certain hours if comparing on an hourly basis.
Outliers in exchange rate data might be unusually high or low rates that do not coincide with the overall trend or seasonality. These could be due to unusual market incidents or extreme fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Spotting outliers requires statistical analysis, where data points that fall significantly outside of defined 'normal' bounds (like multi-standard deviations away from mean/median) are identified as outliers. However, in currency markets, outliers might still be within believable fluctuations. Therefore, identifying outliers requires a keen understanding of feasible forex rate shifts.
Though this analysis does not consider the impact of external factors, it's crucial to note that foreign exchange rates are significantly influenced by external market factors. These include changes in monetary policies, economic indicators, geopolitical events, market opening/closing hours, and the release of key financial news and reports, among other factors. These factors can lead to meaningful shifts in the rates that can't be covered by this numeric trend analysis alone.