Bulgarian Lev Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

After a comprehensive analysis of the given data set, the overall trend demonstrates a slight decrease in the exchange rates from 0.74932 at the beginning of 2024-04-25 to 0.74854 at the end of the day. Although there are fluctuations within the given period, the opening and closing values indicate a marginal downward trend.

2. Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

From the given data set, it's somewhat difficult to observe a consistent seasonality or recurring pattern in the exchange rates. There are several increases and decreases throughout the day, but these do not appear to follow any definitive cyclical pattern based on the current set of data. Further analyses and a larger dataset might provide more insight into daily or hourly recurring patterns.

3. Outliers in the data

Most of the rates in this dataset ranged approximately between 0.748 and 0.752, which indicate a generally consistent exchange rate. Two notable outliers are the jump to 0.75171 at 08:05 and to 0.75197 at 08:30. These could be due to external factors not considered in this analysis or they could be random fluctuations inherent in such financial data.

Please note that these insights are based on this specific dataset, and additional data points or considering external market factors could result in a different analysis. Moreover, forecasting future rates would require a more robust dataset and potentially complex predictive models.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Upon initial investigation of the dataset, the exchange rates appear to have minor fluctuations throughout the day. The rates slightly decrease from 0.74814 at the start and down to 0.74937 by the end of the dataset. This movement indicates a generally steady exchange rate with minimal increments.

Identifying Seasonality or Reoccurring Patterns

In observing the timestamp, the data seems to be recorded at five-minute intervals. There does not appear to be explicit seasonality or recurring patterns within the scope of this dataset, supporting the slight incremental pattern mentioned before. More data may be needed to detect daily or weekly patterns accurately.

Noting Outliers

Outliers in the dataset are instances aiding in significant jumps or dips in the exchange rates. The given set reflected an occasional 15-minute interval instead of the typical 5-minute gap, which could potentially disrupt the accuracy of detecting real-time outliers. Further examination of specific instances or an expanded dataset could identify these potential outliers.

In conclusion, the dataset displays a steady trend in exchange rates with minor fluctuations throughout. The increments are subtle, with no clear seasonality or reoccurring patterns detected within this particular set. Outliers potentially exist but are undeterminable through the existing data due to occasional differences in the data recording interval. More comprehensive data will yield a more accurate analysis of potential seasonal patterns and outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

From the data provided, there seems to be a general upward trend in the exchange rates. This is deduced from the initial starting point of 0.74635 at the beginning of the period, and reaching and ending at 0.74814. However, the range in which the rates fluctuate is not drastic and remains within a small band. The highest recorded rate within this data set is 0.74868 and the lowest is 0.74546.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

This dataset doesn't immediately show strong recurring patterns or seasonality at the given intervals. Given that the time interval provided is quite narrow (5 minute intervals), it would be difficult to determine daily, weekly, or monthly patterns in this dataset as it covers less than one full day. A longer period of analysis might be needed to identify potential seasonal cycles or trends in the data. However, there seems to be a slight increase in exchange rates during specific times, like around 04:00 AM and decrease around 19:20.

3. Noting any Outliers

Identifying outliers or unexpected fluctuations in this time-series data requires understanding of typical variations in the exchange rates. In this data set, changes in the rates are relatively small, typically within +/- 0.002 range. This suggests that the BGN exchange rate is reasonably stable within this specific period. Hence, any sudden shift greater than this range could be seen as an outlier. In this dataset, we don't see such drastic shifts. All rate changes remain within this tight band suggesting no presence of significant outliers.

Please note that this analysis is quite simplistic and is based only on the trends detected within the provided data - deeper, more comprehensive analysis could provide further insights.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Data Analysis Overview

After analyzing the given dataset, we can observe several insights related to trends, patterns, and outliers of the exchange rates.

Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be relatively stable with minor fluctuations. Looking at the beginning to the end of the dataset, the exchange rate starts at 0.74897 and ends at 0.74622. Between these points, there are continual increases and decreases, back and forth. Despite individual changes, the long-term trend maintains a somewhat constant pace.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Upon initial review, it does not seem like there is a discernible seasonal or recurring pattern in this dataset. The changes in the exchange rate seem constant throughout the day, without any specific times showing consistently higher or lower rates. This could suggest that the exchange rate is more influenced by factors outside of a regular, cyclical pattern.

Outliers Analysis

Within this data, there do not appear to be significant outliers. In the context of this dataset, an outlier would be represented by a sudden and drastic change in the exchange rate. None of the rates presented in the series data indicate such abrupt fluctuations that would suggest the presence of outliers. Instead, the rates remain relatively consistent in their oscillation.

Conclusion

The exchange rates, while oscillating, exhibit constancy throughout the dataset. There's no discernible cyclical pattern or significant outlier impacting the overall trend. Predictive analysis of this dataset may require accounting for external factors that aren't provided within this dataset, such as geopolitical events or broader economic trends.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

Analysis Result

Considering the 20-day interval from March to April 2024, the BGN exchange rate seems to follow a semi-volatile pattern. The value hovered around 0.75 without any significant upward or downward trend for the period in consideration.

Overall Trend

The overall trend of the exchange rate appears to be fluctuating between 0.743 and 0.758 over these days, with no clear signs of upward or downward progressions. Although there were slight decreases to lows around 0.744 and increases to highs up to 0.757, the rate remained relatively stable, reverting back to around 0.75.

Seasonality or recurring patterns

Based on the dataset provided, a clear evidence of seasonality or a recurring pattern is not visible. We could see variations in rates throughout different times of the day, but these do not form a consistent pattern. Therefore, predicting a specific pattern on a daily or hourly basis is challenging with the current data.

Outliers

The dataset in consideration does not show any significant outliers. The maximum and minimum values present within the dataset do not diverge greatly from the mean, suggesting that there were no substantial shifts in the exchange rates that could be considered anomalies.

Please note, this analysis purely constitutes a technical interpretation of the numerical dataset. Other external factors such as economic events, political changes or significant financial news, which could potentially influence exchange rates, were not considered in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

By looking at the provided dataset, it can be observed that the exchange rates initially fluctuate around a mean of approximately 0.748 to 0.749. The trend of the exchange rates seems to be fairly stable at the beginning, but escalates on April 16th with rates climbing up to approximately 0.751. The exchange rates then see some upward-downward fluctuations but ultimately manages to maintain a level around 0.750-0.751 until the end of the dataset.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in time-series data requires extensive data over multiple cycles. Unfortunately, the given dataset is relatively small and short, covering only a few days. Therefore, from the given dataset, it isn't feasible to identify any long-term seasonality or recurring pattern in the exchange rates. However, a noticeable pattern of daily volatility is observed where the rates tend to undergo fluctuations throughout the day. One day it may rise and fall again the next day.

Significant Outliers in the Exchange Rates

While the exchange rates in the dataset tend to fluctuate within a certain range, there are a few values that deviate slightly from the general trend. Particularly, on April 16, the rate peaks to 0.75143, which is higher than usual seen in the dataset. These observations are notable as they differ significantly from the otherwise relatively stable trend. On April 19, the rates tend to go down as low as 0.74857, deviating from the generally observed rates. These could be considered as potential outliers worth further investigation.

Regular fluctuations visible in the dataset might be a result of various market factors which are normal and essential to any currency exchange rate. These small deviations, while being lower or higher from the mean exchange rate, doesn't necessary count as outliers, rather part of regular market behavior.

Also note, because the dataset does not reveal any clear or strong trend or seasonality, it is difficult to firmly classify any observation as an outlier based on our existing data. A wider time frame with more observations might provide a clearer perspective.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

A careful analysis of the dataset reveals some clear patterns. The exchange rate seems to be fluctuating between 0.74832 and 0.75071. There seems to be a slight initial increase in the values from the start time at 00:00:02 to around 01:10:02, peaking at 0.75071. However, after that point, a generally decreasing trend can be observed, hitting the lowest point at 0.74832 around 09:10:02. This slight decreasing trend is then followed by periods of minor fluctuations with no clear increasing or decreasing pattern. Hence, the overall trend of the exchange rates seems to be fairly stable with minor increases and decreases over the period shown.

Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given that the data spans a single day and does not cover a longer period, it is difficult to identify any clear seasonality in the fluctuations of exchange rates. However, the exchange rate does exhibit some level of volatility. Often, rates increase for a short period, followed by a decrease, which suggests that there may be some periodic fluctuations, although it's not clear from this one day of data if these represent an underlying cyclical pattern. Future analyses may want to consider collecting data over a longer period (e.g., several weeks or months) to better assess any potential seasonality thoroughly.

Noting the Outliers

Regarding outliers, there don't seem to be any instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general trend. All values seem to be in close range to one another, fluctuating around the same range between 0.74832 and 0.75071. There don't seem to be any extreme spikes or drops in the exchange rates at any given point, suggesting the absence of outliers in the given dataset. However, close monitoring and analysis over a more extended period could reveal more about any potential anomalies.