Moroccan Dirham Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis Results

    Given the data set, the exchange rate (MAD) over time was analyzed. The following interpretations were derived from it:

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Looking at the provided data, the overall trend of exchange rates appear to have shown slight volatility, but the general trend seems relatively stable. The rates have generally fluctuated in the range of about 0.1339 - 0.1345 over the course of the day. The data occurred on 2024-02-29, the fluctuations could be accounted to the usual day-to-day volatility seen in currency exchange rates.

    2. Seasonality & Recurring Patterns

    In the given time frame there doesn't seem to be a clear pattern of seasonality in the exchange rates as the data provided is for a single day. Seasonality trends in financial data usually emerge over longer periods (e.g. quarters, months). More data would be required to accurately determine any seasonality in these exchange rates.

    3. Noteworthy Outliers

    Generally, the exchange rates deviate very slightly from the day's average. There doesn't seem to be any significant outliers in the provided data set. All the rates are close to the mean and change gradually over time. This suggests there were not any big events that significantly impacted the exchange rates during the period from which this data was taken. To get more insight about the outliers, we might need to perform a statistical analysis or apply algorithms designed for finding outliers in time-series data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    I'll start with interpreting the dataset first. This dataset is formed of time-series data, the date and time are given in the 'date_at' in YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS format indicating the precise time at which the exchange rate data is recorded. The exchange rate is represented in the 'mad' column which shows the value of exchange rate at a particular timestamp.

    Overall Trend

    The data series begins roughly at an exchange rate value of 0.13434 and ends at approximately 0.13403. It indicates that over this period, the exchange rate has declined slightly. However, this decrease is slow and the exchange rate seems to remain relatively stable over the entire dataset.

    Seasonality or Recurrent Patterns

    Given that the data spans one day, the seasonality may not be easily observed without data across multiple similar periods. However, the dataset demonstrates small fluctuations throughout the day. To properly assess the seasonality, it would've been more suitable to have more data spanning over several weeks or months. This would enable us to identify patterns based on time of day or day of week trends.

    Outliers

    In general, the exchange rate seems to fluctuate within a tight range for the most part of the day. However, there is a noticeable dip observed at '2024-02-28 06:20:02', where the exchange rate goes down to 0.13398 from the previous reading of 0.13461. This could suggest an unexpected event influencing the rates. There are no other significant deviations or outliers observed in this dataset.

    Please note that this analysis did not consider specific events or influences like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or key financial news and reports. Such factors can often have significant effects on exchange rates and could provide deeper insights when included in analysis. However, as instructed, they are not part of this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the perspective of an overall trend in the given time series data, it can be observed that there is a slightly fluctuating pattern in the exchange rates. The exchange rates aren't necessarily increasing or decreasing on a large scale but are instead showing a certain zag zig pattern with minuscule variations. None of the variations are dramatic or significant, which possibly depicts a stable market condition during the given timestamps. However, a clear trend cannot be confirmed without visual aid such as graphs and more sustained data.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    With the available data at hand, it can not be confidently said that there is a seasonal pattern or cyclic changes in the data provided. The exchange rate seems to vary in an apparently random manner with no cyclic or repetitive behaviour. However, minute patterns might remain disguised due to the relatively limited data. A more thorough analysis using time-series modeling techniques would be optimal for a certain conclusion.

    3. Noting Any Outliers

    From the base observation, no significant outliers have been identified in the data provided. Generally, most exchange rates in this dataset do not deviate drastically from the average exchange rate. As such, no particular instances were found where the exchange rate differed significantly from an established trend. However, for a precise identification of outliers, a statistical analysis would be suggested.

    In conclusion, the exchange rates in the provided dataset appear to remain relatively constant, suggesting minor fluctuations and stability throughout the given timestamps. However, to draw certain conclusions and identify hidden patterns (like seasonality, if any), a detailed statistical or financial time-series analysis is recommended.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates shows slight variability with varying highs and lows. The lowest value of the MAD exchange rate recorded is at 0.13349, while the highest rate is 0.13518. The exchange rates seem to fluctuate within this range. It should be observed that there is no consistent upward or downward trend, the changes in rates seem to be more sporadic and oscillate in a range rather than a straightforward increase or decrease.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    When analyzing the dataset, detecting any form of seasonality or recurring patterns was a bit challenging. Given that the data only spans a period from the end of January to the latter stages of February, it could be premature to definitively state if there exist any distinctive seasonal trends. However, a minor observation is that there are slight peaks and troughs throughout the period which might be indicative of market reactions during different periods of the day. It's recommended that for clear-cut seasonal analysis a larger timeframe encompassing several months or even years would lend a more accurate perspective.

    3. Outliers

    In the dataset provided, there doesn't seem to be any significant outliers. As stated earlier, the MAD exchange rate fluctuates within a tight range from 0.13349 to 0.13518, and there doesn't seem to be any drastic deviation from this range that would suggest an outlier. It should be noted, however, that outliers are often better visualised with the aid of graphical analysis tools like Box plot which was not utilized in this analysis. It's crucial to note that outliers may sometimes be indicative of certain significant events in the market, and an in-depth exploration into these could yield some key insights.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The exchange rates began at a value of 0.13393 and ended at a value of 0.13425 in the provided timestamp interval. From the start and end values, we observe a minor increase in the value of exchange rates over time. However, this does not provide a complete perspective, as there might be fluctuations within the period, which is typical in financial data. Nonetheless, there's a minute upward trend in the exchange rates over the given period.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Considering the nature of time series financial data, recurring patterns are highly probable. Although without applying specific mathematical or statistical methods, the raw data does not explicitly demonstrate any significant seasonal or cyclical patterns in the given period. Moreover, the high-frequency nature of the data suggests that any perceived pattern may be rather transient. More advanced analysis techniques are required to confirm the existence and nature of any potential recurring patterns.

    Outliers in the Data

    Upon observation of the exchange rates, some fluctuations can be seen. These can be interpreted as deviations from the general trend. However, to conclusively identify outliers, statistical methods are usually employed. Considering the nature of the data, it is also essential to note that what might appear as an outlier could merely be a reflection of the inherent volatility in exchange markets. On the contrary, while the overall trend seems to have minor fluctuations, no extremely unprecedented jumps or drops in exchange rates are evident in this dataset.

    Limitations of the Analysis

    This analysis is purely based on changes in the exchange rate over different timestamps. External factors affecting exchange rates, such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, were not considered. Furthermore, no advanced statistical methods were applied to analyze the trend or identify outliers more accurately. Also, no predictions for future rates were generated as per the requirements. Therefore, this analysis should be treated as a preliminary overview of the data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The given dataset stretches throughout an approximately one day period. Over these periods, there are slight fluctuations, but the exchange rates remain mostly stable. Firstly, at the start of the given timeframe, the initial MAD exchange rate is at 0.13391. After around half the day, we witness a small increase in the exchange rate, with a rise to a peak of about 0.13447. Towards the end of the time period, the rates somewhat decrease, ending slightly below where it started at around 0.13426. This signifies a slight fluctuation within a narrow band, suggesting a stable market condition for this particular day.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the period covered is relatively short (24 hours), it is challenging to accurately identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the given dataset. The data may need to be studied over more extended periods (preferably monthly or yearly) to gain a more precise understanding of any significant seasonal trends. However, one pattern that seems to emerge is that a small increase in rates in the latter half of the day. The impact and repeatability of this pattern would need further observation over multiple days to confirm as a recurring pattern.

    3. Outliers

    Over the course of this single day analysis, the exchange rates do not register any significant spikes or dips, indicating the absence of outliers. The small fluctuations in rate are relatively typical and can be expected in exchange rate datasets. However, a more comprehensive analysis over a longer period might be more revealing about any outliers or significant changes.

    Please note that this analysis doesn't take into account external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, which can certainly have a significant impact on the exchange rates.