Moroccan Dirham Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the data presented, the exchange rate for MAD shows a general downward trend as the timeline progresses. The rate starts at around 0.13512 and ends around 0.13495. Though fluctuations occur along the timeline, a subtle decrease over the timeframe stated seems evident. Thus, the overall trend for this period appears to be a slight depreciation.

2. Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the nature of the dataset, short-term seasonality is hard to detect definitively. However, some slight influxes and declinations are observed. Typically, such rises and drops in exchange rates could be due to opening and closing hours of the financial markets around the world, but such inference cannot be made without additional data. It will require continuous monitoring of the data to establish any recurring patterns accurately.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

A distinct outlier within this dataset is difficult to point out due to the relatively small fluctuations in the exchange rate. The range of the exchange rate largely remains within 0.13512 and 0.13495, so any significant deviation from this range could be considered as an outlier. But with the data provided, no such distinct anomaly can be detected. One would also need the average or the expected rate to determine outliers more effectively.

4. Impact of External Factors

The data does not provide direct indicators of the impact of external factors such as market hours, weekends, holidays, or financial news. Such factors often result in increased volatility in exchange rates. Without additional data or context, the effect of such external factors on the rate is challenging to ascertain from the dataset.

So while it is clear that the exchange rate shows slight depreciation during the period observed, further analysis with richer datasets including external factors should be conducted for a more comprehensive understanding.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the data provided, the MAD exchange rate shows a slight upward trend in the observed period. The lowest quoted value is 0.13481 while the highest is 0.13561. However, the slight increase does not indicate any significant fluctuation, suggesting relative stability in the exchange rate, as shown by the movement from 0.13539 to 0.13512.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

There isn't any clear-cut seasonality in the changes in the exchange rate throughout this dataset. The values appear to fluctuate within a relatively tight range, suggesting that the exchange rate changes are more random and less likely to be influenced by predictable time periods. A more detailed analysis, possibly through a decomposition of the times series into trends, seasonality, and residuals, or applying a statistical test for seasonality such as the Dickey-Fuller test, would be necessary to definitively establish the presence or absence of seasonality.

Outlier Analysis

No significant outliers can be directly identified from the data shared. Most changes in the exchange rate are minor and do not deviate significantly from the overall average of the series. However, detailed statistical testing would be necessary to conclusively determine the presence or absence of outliers in the data.

Please note that this analysis is based solely on the provided data. It does not consider any external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Also, no attempt was made to forecast future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

In analyzing the dataset, it's evident that the exchange rates exhibit a volatility, with fluctuations between minor bounds (0.13454 and 0.13539). Primarily, an upward trend can be noticed from the beginning where the rates start at 0.13519 up until near the end of the dataset where they rise up to 0.13539. However, the rates witness a substantive decrease in the middle, as they drop down to 0.13454 before ascending once again. Hence, the rates generally follow a trend of micro fluctuations within a large upward trend.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The dataset doesn’t seem to reflect a clear seasonality or a recurring pattern in the changes of exchange rates considering the timestamps provided. They appear to be rather random and do not hint towards a certain repeated cycle.

Outliers Identification

Due to the constricted bounds within which the exchange rates are fluctuating, it's hard to define or find any clear, significant outliers. However, some instances of major decrease in between like 0.13454 could be termed as deviations as compared to the largely consistent minor ascending rates elsewhere.

Please note, these findings are based on this specific dataset and drawn from the data points alone, not considering any external factors. Further detailed analysis could potentially reveal more in-depth insights.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Analysing the provided dataset, there is a fluctuation in the exchange rates throughout the day. However, there isn't any dominating upward or downward trend, rather it's quite variable with several instances of minor increases and decreases. Though the data begins and ends at 0.1356 and 0.13519 respectively, signaling a minor overall decrease, it's important to note that the difference isn't substantial and hence, the rate has relatively maintained stability over this specific timeframe.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon analysis of this dataset, there are no apparent recurring patterns or seasonality. The exchange rates undergo numerous highs and lows throughout the data series, but without meaningful repetition or cyclic nature at specific intervals. This suggests that the rates could be influenced by economic activities or market forces not represented within this dataset.

Identification of Outliers

The provided dataset demonstrates tightly packed data around the mid-point, and there isn't a prominent presence of any significant outliers. Statistics like the Mean Absolute Deviation might be necessary to verify the presence of outliers. However, they are not available in the given data. Therefore, as far as this dataset is concerned, the exchange rate is quite consistent, demonstrating minor fluctuations only.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

Based on the dataset provided, here is a comprehensive analysis considering the exchange rates (MAD) over the different periods of time as mentioned:

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

In general, it appears that the exchange rate does not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend. The data points fluctuate around approximately 0.134 to 0.136 throughout the period. The highest rate observed is roughly around 0.13715 and it hits the lowest point down to 0.02455. But this appears to be an outlier and may potentially be due to an error in the data recording because the rest of the data is consistently reading between 0.134 and 0.137.

2. Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

The second goal was to identify recurring patterns in the changes in exchange rates. Due to timestamp data primarily being in the early hours (from 02:00:02 to 14:00:03), this analysis lacks the complete cyclical daily data needed to identify any obvious intra-day patterns. Broadly considering though, the data seems to have some degree of cyclicity, but it's not clear-cut because of the overlapping of values. In most currency exchange markets though, daily and weekly patterns usually emerge because of trading hours and market closures over the weekend.

3. Noting any Outliers

An outlier identified in the data is the rate of 0.02455 at the timestamp of 2024-04-16 16:00:02. It is far from the rest of the data and one of the potential reasons for this could be a mistake in data logging. Other than that, the exchange rates mostly fluctuate within a narrow range without any other significant outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend seems to be fairly stable when viewing the data on a broader perspective. Although it experiences a few minor increases and reductions, the differences remain quite small. There is no significant trend showing a continual increase or decrease in the exchange rates over the timestamps provided. Certain periods experience slight volatility, but they usually revert back to the norm, indicating a persistent mean. Any consistent pattern of exchange rates can be best determined with statistical methods like running average or regression analysis to better determine the presence of an upward, downward, or stable pattern.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Strictly observing given data, there do not seem to be any prominent or clear signs of seasonality or recurring patterns based on the provided timestamps. However, it is common in financial markets to have intraday seasonality. The data appears to fluctuate within a range and there is no clear pattern of increase or decrease with specific times. For stronger conclusions, it would be useful to employ seasonality indexes and tests to statistically determine any seasonality in the exchange rates.

Outliers and Significant Fluctuations

There are few instances of significant rate differences from what would be expected from the general data trend. Notably, the rates at timestamps '2024-04-15 09:00:03' and '2024-04-16 16:00:02' are significantly lower than the common exchange rate values, potentially representing outliers. These instances might suggest an unexpected market event, and would require further investigation to understand the underlying reason. To identify outliers, more sophisticated methods like standard deviation or box plots can provide a better understanding.

Overall, it's essential to recognize that the conclusions drawn above are based merely on an inspection of the provided data and would require a more rigorous statistical analysis to reach definitive conclusions.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The given time series dataset represents exchange rates over a certain period of time. From an initial review of the data, there is a minimal fluctuation in the exchange rates throughout the time period observed. The data fluctuates between 0.1352 and 0.1359, representing minor adjustments in the rates. It demonstrates a largely stable trend. However, a definitive pattern of increasing or decreasing rates cannot be determined from this data. Rather, it appears that the exchange rates are consistently fluctuating in a narrow range.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The data does not appear to show any clear seasonality or recurring patterns at a glance. This could be due to the narrow range of time covered in the dataset. Seasonality patterns usually manifest over more extended periods. However, a more detailed analysis could reveal smaller scale patterns or cyclical behavior within the data. Therefore, further detailed granular analysis - hourly or even by minutes could potentially provide insights into the micro-trends.

3. Noting any Outliers

At a broader level, the dataset doesn't seem to contain any significant outliers that deviate substantially from the average observed exchange rate. Every rate sits within a narrow range, suggesting a level of stability within the market during the time of observation. Still, a detailed statistical analysis would provide a more accurate assessment of potential outliers.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this dataset shows a stable level of fluctuation within a narrow range of exchange rates, indicating a level of consistency and stability in the market during this period. There are no obvious indicators of seasonality or recurring patterns, suggesting the absence of external influencing factors within this data. Further, no clear outliers are immediately visible. However, these observations are based on a superficial analysis. A more in-depth statistical analysis may reveal additional subtle trends and patterns.