Singapore Dollar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

The general trend of the exchange rate seems to show slight fluctuations with a moderate downward trend. It started with an exchange rate of approximately 1.00608, and ended with a rate around 1.00359. However, it is important to note that there are continuous peaks and valleys throughout the data, which indicates that the currency exchange rate experiences both increases and decreases over this period. While the currency is generally depreciating in this time series data, the rate of depreciation is not consistent.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Without access to longer historical data, it's hard to precisely identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in these exchange rates. Based on the provided data, it does not show apparent signals of strong seasonality or a recurring pattern. However, it is suggested to use a full year (or several years) of data to detect any potential seasonality, as exchange rates can be influenced by many factors that tend to be cyclical, such as inflation rates, interest rates, and economic cycles.

Noting Outliers

This data shows there are no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rates are abnormally different from the general trend. Majority of the exchange rates lie in a narrow band of values, indicating a certain level of stability in the exchange rates. Nevertheless, it is recommended to compute z-scores or use techniques such as the Tukey method or DBScan clustering to more definitively identify outliers.

Warning: External factors

Although the analysis requested to ignore external factors, it is important to note that in a realistic scenario, things like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can vastly impact the exchange rates. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis should take these factors into account for a more accurate understanding.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The general trend of the SGD exchange rate over the period is somewhat volatile but does not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend. The value rises and falls frequently over the given period. The lowest value recorded was around 1.005 while the highest was about 1.008. There is a sudden but transient rise in the rate between timestamps 2024-04-24 07:40:03 (1.00679 SGD) to 2024-04-24 08:10:02 (1.00786 SGD). Apart from that, the exchange rate mostly fluctuated between 1.005 and 1.007.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

This is time-series data with intervals of approximately 5 minutes. Given the short period, it might be hard to definitively identify any seasonality or recurring patterns, as these are typically observed with longer periods (e.g., daily or annually). However, within the given timestamps, there is no clear indication of a repetitive rise or fall of the exchange rate that could suggest a pattern.

Noting Any Outliers

An outlier in the data appears at timestamp 2024-04-24 07:40:03 where the exchange rate jumps from 1.00544 to 1.00679 SGD and then continues to rise until reaching 1.00786 SGD at timestamp 2024-04-24 08:10:02. This sudden rise in value could be considered an outlier as it differs significantly from the flat trend observed in the rest of the data. However, it is important to remember that financial data can be very volatile and change rapidly in response to numerous factors. Thus while this instance can be considered an 'outlier' within the context of this specific dataset, it may not be unusual in a broader context or larger dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the SGD exchange rate provided in the dataset shows a slight downward drift. Starting at 1.0063 at the beginning of the dataset, the exchange rate decreases slowly over time, closing at 1.0051 in the last timestamp. Therefore, there is a general depreciation in the exchange rate of SGD over the span of the dataset. However, it's important to stress that the fluctuation isn't significant, hinting a relatively steady state of the SGD over this limited timeframe.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the structure of the dataset where data points are taken every 5 minutes, it's challenging to identify noteworthy daily or monthly seasonality. However, observation reveals a cyclical pattern within each day where the exchange rate decreases until a certain point and then increases incrementally, forming somewhat of a 'V' shape.

Outliers

The dataset does not seem to include clear instances of outliers, where the exchange rate differs significantly from its preceding and proceeding values. Brief rises and falls are noted, yet these changes are marginal and appear to be part of the inherent volatility of the exchange rate. In other words, there are no sharp spikes or drops that would indicate major unexpected events influencing the exchange rate in the timeframe captured by the dataset.

Please note that for the most accurate analysis it would be advised to take into consideration the external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of provided Time-Series Data

Before jumping into the analysis of the dataset, let's clarify the structure of the given data. The dataset is given in time-series format (YYYY-MM-dd hh:mm:ss), where timestamps likely represent every 5 minutes; following each timestamp, the corresponding Singapore Dollar (SGD) exchange rate is provided. The main goal is to analyze trends, identify seasonality, and locate any outliers in the data.

Overall Trend Analysis

From an initial glance, the currency exchange rate appears to be fluctuating within a specific narrow range. The start and end values do not differ significantly, suggesting a relatively stable period with no dramatic increase or decrease trend. It started from 1.0088, and the last value recorded is 1.00625 which is slightly decreased, but the scale of change is small. However, to fully understand the overall trend, additional data processing and a more in-depth review would be necessary, probably involving the use of trend lines and moving averages.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Detecting seasonality or recurring patterns is slightly more challenging due to the apparent random nature of the fluctuations viewed at the minute scale this dataset provides. The fluctuations don't seem to show repetitive or obvious cyclical patterns, suggesting the need for a more rigorous method, like autocorrelation or Fourier analysis approach, to accurately identify any potential periodic patterns or seasonality.

Identification of Outliers

At the glance, the dataset does not indicate a presence of significant outliers—values that are dramatically lower or higher than the typical exchange rates. However, as with the above analyses, this would need to be confirmed by more rigorous statistical analysis. Usually, methods like standard deviations, boxplots, or IQR (Interquartile Range) can be used to detect outliers effectively and are recommended for confirmation, especially in financial time-series data analysis, which can be heavily impacted by outliers.

Please be reminded that this analysis is based on a quick visual assessment of the dataset. For a more rigorous and precise understanding of the data, advanced statistical methods and machine learning algorithms should be performed.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

From the data provided, it seems that the overall trend in the Singaporean Dollar (SGD) exchange rate fluctuates over the time period shown. The highest value recorded in the dataset is 1.01375 on 17th April 2024, whereas the lowest value recorded is 1.00120 on 4th April 2024. Across the time period covered by the data, the exchange rate begins at 1.00653 and ends at 1.00935 – a slight increase. However, within this period, the data shows significant ups and downs, indicating a volatile market rather than a steady increase or decrease.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

While this dataset may not be extensive enough to reliably identify seasonal patterns in the exchange rate, certain recurring patterns can be noted. For instance, there is a tendency for the rate to increase slightly across a given day, reaching its daily peak during the 8:00 am to 10:00 am window before declining again. Furthermore, there are frequent fluctuations having amplitude of approximately 0.002 - 0.003 units.

Outliers

In this dataset, there are few distinct outliers, or instances when the exchange rate differs significantly from the overall trend. One such instance can be observed on 3rd April 2024, when the rate dipped to 1.00168 at 10:00 am, differing significantly from what could be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

Please note that this time-series analysis is purely descriptive and does not consider external factors such as market conditions, economic indicators, news events, or other relevant considerations that may impact exchange rates. The dataset does not provide sufficient information for accurate forecasting of future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The data spans across from the 15th April 2024 to the 19th April 2024. The overall trend observed in the exchange rates indicates a gradual increase over this period. Specifically, the exchange rate started at 1.0109 on the 15th of April at 01:00:02 and ended with 1.0094 on the 19th of April at 13:00:02. Although minor fluctuations are present, the overall increment suggests a rising trend in the SGD exchange rates during this timeframe.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns Analysis

In this data set, it's challenging to neatly discern clear seasonal trends or patterns given the relatively short timeframe (5 days). Furthermore, the data does not represent the complete 24-hour cycle for every single day as some hours are missing in the input provided. However, based on the available data, minor fluctuations in the exchange rate during different times of the day could suggest some daily patterns and market activity levels.

Identification of Outliers

An analysis of the data shows occasional significant changes in exchange rates, which could be interpreted as outliers. For instance, the exchange rate significantly increased from 1.01033 at 07:00:03 on the 16th April to 1.01284 at 08:00:02 on the same day. Similarly, on April 19th, the exchange rate experienced a notable drop from 1.01028 at 09:00:03 to 1.00896 at 10:00:03. Such significant fluctuations could be due to a variety of factors that would need to be further investigated.

Please note that for a more detailed and accurate analysis, it would be beneficial to have a dataset that spans over a longer period and includes more comprehensive hourly data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data Analysis

The provided data is a time series data that represents exchange rates (SGD) on different timestamps. Before going into the analysis, the data was rearranged to timestamp-value pairs, and a visual chart was generated for better understanding. Please note that given the current data, some fluctuations can be seen but it might not be significantly helpful in determining the true patterns or trends without considering external market factors as you mentioned. However, here's the analysis based on the provided data.

Understanding the overall trend

Every 5-minute timestamp contains a corresponding exchange rate, which appears to fluctuate within a relatively stable range over time. Overall, the exchange rate trend appears to be steady with a couple of slight ups and downs. The exchange rates vary from a low of 1.00882 to a high of 1.01135 within a close range. There's no obvious continuous upward or downward trend, suggesting that the rates are somewhat stable within this period.

Identifying seasonality patterns

No discernible seasonality or recurring trends can be made out from the data provided. The data is not as such consistent enough for a clear hourly pattern to be established. Even on a broader scale (i.e., over multiple days), it is difficult to determine any recurring patterns due to the fluctuations within the data. Given the relatively short range of time, seasonality in the data might be indistinct.

Identifying outliers

From an initial viewing of the data, there do not appear to be any significant outliers that would affect the analysis. Although there are fluctuations in the data, these would not be considered outliers as they are still within the expected range of variability for the dataset. However, it is noted that the lowest value of 1.00882 and the highest value of 1.01135 could be possibly due to fluctuations in the market that go beyond normal variation, and could be viewed as outliers.

A final analysis would involve running statistical tests or machine learning algorithms to further analyze these trends and factors, which is outside the scope of this current report. If your requirements change and you need more advanced analysis, don't hesitate to inquire.