Namibia Dollar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon inspection of the dataset, it is observed that the exchange rates have had subtle fluctuations over the timeseries data provided. There doesn't seem to be a significant upward or downward trend over this period. The NAD exchange rate generally hovers around 0.071 with slight deviations. However, some anomalies can be noticed, which might be due to myriad factors, which we are not considering as per the briefing.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it's challenging to identify any noticeable patterns based on the data provided alone. The fluctuations seem to be random rather than cyclical or seasonal, and there doesn't appear to be any specific time of the day when the exchange rate increases or decreases consistently.

Outliers Analysis

While examining the dataset, a few outliers can be noted. For instance, there are instances where the exchange rate spikes up to 0.07162 and moments when it drops to 0.07102. Such outliers are substantially different from the average exchange rate and disrupt the consistency in the data. However, they represent short-lived phenomena, and the exchange rate typically returns to its average level quickly.

In conclusion, the data analysis indicates a generally stable NAD exchange rate with minor fluctuations over the time period reflected in the dataset. However, to draw more definitive insights and predict future rates, a more extended dataset, coupled with insights on contributing factors like market conditions, economic indicators, and financial news, would be necessary.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

I have analyzed the provided data. Here is a summary of the findings:

Overall Trend

Initial observations show very slight changes within a very small range. The exchange rate moves between 0.07121 and 0.07162. The overall trend seems to be relatively stable with very slight fluctuations.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

With the data provided, no clear monthly or yearly seasonality can be detected. However, within each day, there seems to exist some small-scale patterns. For instance, specific times show regular drops or peaks. However, it must be mentioned that these patterns are not very significant and can be attributed to normal market noise combined with small fluctuations inherent to financial data.

Outliers Identification

Because the data range is so tight and no prolonged or significant increases or decreases are present, it was challenging to identify any clear outliers. All the given points are within the overall distribution's expected range. This consistent movement, with negligible divergence, signifies a period of relative stability in the market or possibly a result of a lack of available data.

I hope this analysis gives you a clear understanding of your provided exchange rate data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall trend

Based on the provided data, the NAD exchange rate for the particular day (April 23, 2024) shows minor fluctuations between the range of 0.07124 to 0.07154. The exchange rate remained somewhat stable during this time period without any significant general increases or decreases.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Considering the intraday time scale, it's challenging to detect any clear-cut recurring patterns over the course of 24 hours using this dataset, as it reflects the exchange rate for just one day and only minor fluctuations. However, given a longer time series data, it would be possible to detect patterns that signify seasonality such as weekly, monthly, or even quarterly.

Noting Outliers

Given the relatively small variances seen in this dataset, there doesn't appear to be any significant outliers. The exchange rate stayed in a tight range from the lowest at 0.07124 to the highest at 0.07154. These rates did not differ greatly from the mean, thus indicating the absence of any significant outliers based on the given dataset.

Note: As per your instruction, the contextual factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports have not been taken into account in this analysis.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the data, it appears that the overall trend of the exchange rate seems to be fairly stable. There is only a slight fluctuation as noted from the minimum exchange rate of approximately 0.0714 to a maximum of approximately 0.0718. There does not appear to be a consistent increase or decrease in exchange rates over the span of the data provided.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Considering the dataset spans only one day, it's challenging to identify any seasonality or strong recurring patterns in this dataset. The exchange rate seems to fluctuate very slightly over different times throughout the day, however without comparing this pattern to additional days or weeks, it's difficult to conclusively establish any repeating trends.

Noting any Outliers

Given the consistency of slight fluctuations throughout the course of this single day, it is difficult to identify any significant outliers or any instances where the exchange rate appears remarkably different or unexpected based on the prevailing trend. However, the observation at 13:10 where the rate dropped to 0.07146 could be considered a mild outlier given the slight upward trend before and after this point.

In summary, based on the data from this single day, the NAD exchange rate appears relatively stable with only minor fluctuations throughout the course of the day. Due to the short time span, it is challenging to determine seasonality or recurring patterns, and there are no significant outliers in this dataset.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the Time-Series Data

The dataset provided contains financial time-series data recorded from 22nd March 2024 to 19th April 2024. This timeframe spans about one month. The data reflects the fluctuations of the exchange rate (denominated in NAD) at several timestamps across the day. Such comprehensive coverage helps capture the intricacies of day-to-day fluctuations and, potentially, inherent patterns or trends.

Understanding the Overall Trend

Going by the data provided, the NAD exchange rate appears to exhibit a period of increase initially, until around 22nd March, from 0.07211 to 0.07231. Post this date, however, the rate seems to experience a period of falling and roving around 0.0715 to 0.0719, with a few minor fluctuations. Post 2nd of April, the exchange rate climbs back up, peaking highest at 0.0744 around April 12th, but then experienced a noticeable downfall towards the end of the dataset, around 0.071.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Upon inspection, the data doesn't seem to present any clear seasonality or recurring daily patterns. The exchange rate doesn't consistently rise or fall at specific times of the day. However, some possible weekly patterns might exist - there are instances where middle of the weeks (such as around 3rd to 4th or 10th to 11th of April) having higher rates than the start or end of a week.

Identifying Outliers

As time-series data, outliers would typically present themselves as sudden, uncharacteristic spikes or dips in the exchange rate. Here, the values seem to gradually increase or decrease over several hours or days, suggesting a lack of sudden, unexplained fluctuations. That said, the exchange rate on April 10th to 12th peeked around 0.074 - a noticeable break from the pattern observed during most of the dataset.

Please note:

This analysis was created based purely on the dataset provided and observing visible trends within the data. It does not take into account external factors such as market events, economic indicators, or international news that can have significant impacts on exchange rates.

Disclaimer:

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any investment or trading is always subject to risk, including the loss of the invested amount.