Namibia Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The data provided is a series of exchange rates (NAD) recorded over a 24-hour period. It appears that for the given data, there is a general decreasing trend for the exchange rate. The rate starts at about 0.07115 at the beginning of the day and ends around 0.07072. Although there are minor fluctuations, the overall pattern suggests a declining trend.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Upon examining the data, there does not appear to be any string seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. The rates fluctuate somewhat randomly throughout the day, with no clear repeating pattern. However, there are a few cycles of increase and decline that are noticeable but they do not seem to follow a consistent time-based pattern.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Looking at the data, there is a noticeable drop in the exchange rate around the 11:20 timestamp, where the rate goes from 0.07115 to 0.07072. This sudden change might be considered as an outlier as it deviates significantly from the overall declining trend. It's interesting to note that the rate gradually recovers after this dip.

    Final Comments

    It's important to keep in mind that this analysis has been conducted over a very small time period. Although the results provide a snapshot of the exchange rate's behavior on a particular day, they are not necessarily indicative of its longer-term behavior. Furthermore, more sophisticated statistical methods could uncover patterns or outliers that a simple inspection like this might fail to detect.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    The overall trend of the exchange rates during the period from 2024-02-28 00:00:02 to 2024-02-28 23:55:02 shows a general increase. The rate started at approximately 0.07101, and gradually increased to peak at around 0.0713 around the 07:00:03 timestamp before continuing to increase and decrease in smaller scales but generally maintaining an up-and-down pattern around 0.07113 to 0.0712.

    Seasonality and recurring patterns

    A detailed view into the data did not show clear recurring patterns that signify common seasonal tendencies in the exchange rate. However, there is a noticeable intra-day pattern wherein the exchange rate seems to reach peak values around 6-7 hours after the start of the day and then gradually decrease towards the end of the day, suggesting potential influence from trade opening to closing hours each day.

    Outliers

    An inspection of the data did not indicate significant outliers; most changes in exchange rates are typically small in nature. However, the slight drop in the exchange rates around 07:00:03 might be considered unusual considering the dominating increasing trend during this period. It could potentially indicate a reaction to some event or change in market conditions during those times.

    Please note that this analysis does not involve any specific events or consideration of external factors such as market hours, weekends/holidays, or key financial news. The implications of these factors could potentially provide additional insight into the fluctuations in the observed data trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of Exchange Rate Trends

    This analysis is based on time-stamped data for the given exchange rate (NAD). Here we are aiming to understand the overall trend, identify any recurring patterns (seasonality), and highlight any significant outliers.

    Overall Trend

    From the provided series, there seems to be a subtle increase in exchange rates during the first half of the period. However, beyond the midpoint, the NAD exchange rates appear to show a small dip, stabilizing towards the end of the series. The overall trend, thus, can be described as marginally volatile, leaning towards stability.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    On a closer look at the dataset, it appears that the volatility in exchange rates typically increases around the early hours of the day, potentially suggesting a pattern that relates to the opening hours in the markets. But as the day proceeds, we observe more stability in the rates with minimal changes. This pattern seems to be recurring across multiple days in the dataset. However, to be sure, one would require a more extended set of data spanning across weeks or months.

    Noting Outliers

    An important observation from this data series is the significant dip at timestamp '2024-02-26 12:50:02', where the rate drops to 0.0699. This drop in exchange rate marks a significant departure from the preceding and following values. On all other occasions, fluctuations seem balanced and within a certain consistent range.

    In all, this comprehensive analysis of the NAD exchange rate data illustrates subtle volatility in the rates, a possible daily seasonality pattern, and a notable outlier. Predictions for future fluctuations must consider these trends as well as other influencing market factors.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of NAD Exchange Rate Time-series Data

    The given dataset is a time series data that records the NAD exchange rate over several time points. It incorporates timestamp records at different hours of the day with their corresponding exchange rate values.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    To understand the overall trend of the exchange rates, a time series plot of the given data points is generated. If the graph indicates most data points moving in an upward direction, that may suggest a general increase in the exchange rates over the displayed period. Conversely, if the plot shows a downward curve, it indicates that the NAD exchange rates have broadly reduced during the timeline. A roughly straight horizontal line would depict stability in the exchange rates.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Seasonality involves consistent, predictable changes in a time series dataset. It often appears in a time series that is observed on a daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly basis. In the context of exchange rate, fluctuation at certain times of the day or specific days of the week can be seen as an example of seasonality. This can be explored by plotting the data per hour, per day, or even per month to see if there is a regular pattern.

    3. Noting Outliers

    Outliers are numeric data points that significantly deviate from the other observations. Outliers can be the result of variability in the data or could also be due to measurement errors. To detect outliers, we can use box plots, scatter plots, or Z-score methods and accordingly see where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

    Note that as per given information, specific events, external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports haven't been considered for this analysis. Considering these factors for future analysis could potentially deliver a better understanding and more accurate results.from the current dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Overall, the changes in the exchange rates (NAD) in the provided dataset appear to show a slight decreasing trend over the period. The rates start off slightly higher than they end, indicating a decrease, but the change is very minor. Please note that these are high-frequency data points, changes on an hourly basis -- and within such a short time frame, any market volatility or micro-level fluctuations can cause these changes, so while there is a slight downward trend, the rate movement seems to be relatively stable over the given period. The value begins at 0.07136 and ends at 0.07035, and although there are numerous fluctuations in between, there's no strong increasing or decreasing pattern present.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the relatively small dataset and the high-frequency nature of the data, it's challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns within this dataset. Typically, for spotting seasonality, we require a longer data span that includes full cycles (daily, monthly, yearly, etc.). In this dataset, no obvious cyclical or recurring patterns can be inferred from the data points provided. Any changes appear to be quite random without clear repetitive behavior.

    3. Noting Any Outliers

    There are no extreme outliers of the exchange rate that would significantly distort the overall trend. However, there are few points that show a slight difference from the surrounding values, such as the drop in rate observed on 2024-02-22 at 14:00:04 when it goes to 0.07029. These could possibly be due to slight market fluctuations or micro-level economic changes occurring at that time.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The data indicates that there's a slight upward trend in the exchange rates over the period shown, with rates initially fluctuating around 0.07025 and then towards the end, fluctuating around 0.07035. However, the increase is minimal and suggests a relatively stable rate. Also, there are several periods where the rate does not change much, signalling that the market is relatively stable during these periods.

    Seasonality or recurring patterns

    Due to the nature of the data, short-term seasonality or recurring patterns are not readily identifiable. There appear to be periods where the exchange rate remains more stable, followed by periods where there's a slight increase, but any identifiable pattern would likely require a more detailed time series decomposition.

    Significant Outliers

    Significant outliers in the data are not apparent on an initial observation. However, there are occasionally instances of minor rate drops - for instance, near the timestamp 2024-02-23 06:35:01, where the rate drops to 0.07018 from 0.07022. Such instances would need a further examination to determine their possible causes and effects. However, these fluctuations are not significantly large, and given the overall trend, they could be attributed to the regular ebb and flow of the financial market.