Danish Krone Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

On initial observation of the data, we can say that the DKK exchange rate over the given period appears to fluctuate within a very narrow band, approximately between the range of 0.1983 and 0.1988. It indicates a relatively stable market with minor fluctuations in the currency's value. Although there are minor increments and decrements in the exchange rate, there's no significant upward or downward trend over the observed period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Based on the given data, it is challenging to confirm the presence of any seasonality or recurring patterns. The data provided gives a snapshot of roughly a single day; usually, we need a longer-term data set to identify any seasonal trends effectively. However, from a broader perspective, it seems that the exchange rate oscillates around a central value without any clear cyclical pattern.

Outliers in the Exchange Rate

Identifying outliers in financial time-series data like this requires statistical analysis; typically, any value lying beyond a specified deviation from the mean might be considered an outlier. Based on a casual observation of this data, it would appear that the figures given are all quite near to each other, and no obvious outliers are present. This is indicative of a stable period for the DKK exchange rate. Please note that a more rigorous statistical investigation could possibly reveal minor outliers not immediately visible.

Considerations for Future Analysis

  • Given more extended time-series data would help in observing the seasonal trends and patterns more precisely.
  • If there were notable spikes or drops in the exchange rates, considering external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news, and reports might be necessary. But for this dataset, these factors do not seem to play a significant role.
  • While forecasting future rates is out-of-scope for this particular task, it is worth noting that, based on this data, a forecast would likely show continued stability unless influenced by external factors.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

Observing the data, it appears that the exchange rate tends to fluctuate around a level of roughly 0.198. The highest rates observed are 0.19855 while the lowest are at 0.19808. The exchange rate seems to have a stable overall trend with minor fluctuations around a consistent level, with no clear upward or downward trend.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Noting the time intervals between the provided data, it seems the data is taken every five minutes. However, there doesn't appear to be a visible seasonal or recurring pattern based purely on this data. Any minute variations that occur do not appear to follow a discernible pattern with the given information.

3. Identifying Outliers

From a visual inspection, the outliers in this dataset (those that sit significantly apart from others) are not immediately visible. The exchange rates all lie quite close to each other when considering the range between the highest and lowest values. Therefore, we do not have any significant outliers, according to this data set.

It should be noted that this analysis is based purely off the given numerical data, and does not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, since these instructions were specified.

Furthermore, no future forecast has been provided, as requested. This analysis serves to understand the past behavior of the exchange rate as given in the dataset, and does not attempt to predict future movement.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rate

The DKK exchange rate has not shown any drastic increase or decrease during the period for which data is given, i.e., from April 19, 2024, to May 17, 2024. The DKK exchange rate ranges between a minimum of 0.19562 and a maximum of 0.19862 in the given data set. The exchange rate remained stable most of the time, and the changes were mostly slight. It can be inferred that the rate has not experienced any significant trend (upwards or downwards) during this time period.

Seasonality and recurring patterns

From the dataset, it is difficult to infer any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate. However, we see some daily fluctuations. The data suggests that fluctuations in the exchange rate are random and do not follow a predictable pattern or regular cycle (e.g., hourly, daily, weekly). Concrete conclusions about seasonality patterns would require more extended data (annual data) or application of advanced time-series analysis techniques.

Outliers in the exchange rate

Regarding outliers, it is difficult to point out any specific instances where the exchange rate varies significantly from the overall trend without performing a more detailed statistical analysis. However, the maximum and minimum exchange rate values as mentioned above could be considered higher and lower values respectively. Any rate significantly deviating from these could potentially be viewed as an outlier. However, it needs to be clarified that distinguishing outliers in a time series financial data set like this requires a more rigorous statistical process and is crucial to consider trend and seasonality effects.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon observing the provided time-series data, it seems that the overall trend of the exchange rates is increasing. The initial value provided on 2024-05-13 01:00:02 is 0.19761 and the final value on 2024-05-17 14:00:02 is 0.19836. There are small periodic fluctuations but the trend shows a gradual increase in the exchange rate value over time. It is important to note that despite this overall increase, the changes are relatively small.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Due to the limited scope of data, no concrete periodic or seasonal patterns can be confidently inferred. However, based on the available data, we can visualize slight volatility around specific time periods. For example, spikes in rates are occasionally seen around 10:00:02 and drops are often noticed after 14:00:00. Yet, these observations are not consistent enough to denote a recurring pattern and may require a broader dataset to confirm any sort of seasonality.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

The values in the dataset remain relatively consistent and closely knit around a limited range, with the smallest rate at 0.19753 and the highest at 0.19857. While there are minor fluctuations, no significant outliers or extreme fluctuations that would defy the overall trend or suggest a sudden change have been identified. This could suggest a stable economic environment during this timeframe. More data might provide a better understanding of possible unexpected instances or anomalies.

In conclusion, the overall trend shows a slight increase while no definite recurring patterns or significant outliers have been identified within this scope of data. For a more in-depth analysis, a larger dataset covering a broader range of time, including different days, weeks, months or even years, might be necessary. This would allow for pinpointing more specific patterns or seasonal effects that might influence the exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of Exchange Rates Over Time

The analysis of the timestamped data for the exchange rates reveals certain patterns and trends. A complete constructive interpretation of the data is detailed below:

1. Overall Exchange Rate Trend

The data provided shows that there is an overall non-static trend of the exchange rates. The range of change in the rate is 0.19816 to 0.19845 with slight fluctuations represented at different timestamps. The values increase and decrease at times, resulting in an uneven and non-linear trend over the period. In brief, there's no consistent increase or decrease noted in the dataset's period.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The dataset doesn't provide extensive data for a prolonged period, making it hard to draw a definitive conclusion about seasonality or recurrent patterns. Nonetheless, assuming the provided data might represent a typical period, there is no immediately evident seasonality in the changes. The changes in rates do not show a regular pattern. However, with additional data, especially covering a broader timeframe, the presence of any seasonality may become more apparent.

3. Identification of Outliers

Given the relatively stable range of the values, there doesn't appear to be any outliers within the dataset provided. The range of observed rates remains within 0.19816 to 0.19845, a relatively narrow range. Therefore, it can be stated that all the values align relatively closely to the dataset's median and mean values, absent of anomalies from the expected behavior based on the trend or seasonality.

Other Considerations

The analysis doesn't take into account external factors like the opening and closing hours of markets, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. It bases its interpretation purely on the numerical data provided. Also, the focus is strictly on understanding the trend, pattern, and outliers, not generating forecasts for future rates.

Conclusion

The trend reflects minor fluctuations in the DKK exchange rate over the provided period. The changes don't show any consistent pattern or seasonality, and there do not appear to be any indications of significant outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

From the data analysis, it is evident that there was a slight depreciation of the exchange rate over time. The exchange rate started at 0.19853 at the beginning and depreciated slightly to 0.19827 over the given period. This represents a decrease of about 0.00026, which may seem minimal but it is significant in foreign exchange markets.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

After examining the time series data, it can be concluded that there is no noticeable cyclic pattern or seasonality in the changes of exchange rates within this dataset. The exchange rate changes seem to remain in close proximity to each other and do not demonstrate a regular rise or fall at certain times of the day or certain periods. However, several repetitions of minor increases and decreases can be observed, which is a part of normal market fluctuation.

Outliers Analysis

Regarding outliers in the dataset, as per the provided data, no significant outliers were detected. The exchange rates do not show extreme spikes or drops within this timeframe. All changes in rates are minimal and mostly oscillate within a narrow range which is typical for the foreign exchange market unless intervened by significant economic events.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the exchange rates in your dataset showed a minor depreciating trend over the period, with no clear seasonality or outliers. This steady nature of the data makes it less volatile and relatively predictable based on historical data. However, as with all financial data, unexpected factors and events can greatly influence these trends.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

After a close inspection of the data, it appears that the exchange rates trend has been fairly stable, with slight fluctuations. The rates range from approximately 0.19775 to a maximum of around 0.19857, indicating that the changes have been minimal and on a microscopic scale. Although minor fluctuations can be observed throughout the data set, there is no clear increasing or decreasing trend present.

Identifying Seasonality

Regarding the seasonality, given the limited scope of the data (just a single day), it's challenging to make any conclusive determinations on recurring patterns or periodic fluctuations that could potentially indicate seasonal trends related to day-time, week-days or other chronological factors. For a more accurate identification of patterns and trends, a broader data set, encompassing multiple weeks, months, or years, would be needed.

Noting Any Outliers

No significant outliers are observed in this dataset. All the exchange rates remain within a confined range, and no instances where the exchange rate drastically deviates from this range were detected. Therefore, the fluctuations in the DKK exchange rate within the provided dataset remain consistent with the overall observed trend.

In summary, the given data signifies a relatively stable trend of DKK exchange rates for the recorded day, with no notable anomalies suggesting a disruption in this trend. As the data covers one day only, it is difficult to infer seasonal trends. A broader dataset would be required to perform a more detailed analysis with an emphasis on macro-level trends and seasonal patterns.

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