Danish Krone Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis Overview

    The provided dataset represents time-series financial data for the exchange rate (DKK). It runs from midnight on February 29, 2024, until just before midnight of the same date. The data represents the changes in the exchange rate after almost every 5 minutes.

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    After initial analysis, the trend appears to be generally stable, with minor fluctuations throughout the period. The exchange rate started at 0.19733, dipped to 0.19675 during the afternoon, and finally closed at 0.19685. It fluctuated from a low of 0.19657 to a high of 0.19783 during the period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Due to the limitation of data (only one day data), it is a bit challenging to ascertain seasonality. However, if we look at daily seasonality, There seem to be certain times at which the exchange rates slightly increase, such as around 02:50 to 03:20 and from 07:20 to 07:30. Also, it appears like the rates slightly decrease around 04:55 to 05:30 and from 13:35 to 13:50. These could indicate some daily seasonality patterns.

    Outliers in Data

    Looking at the data, there do not appear to be any severe outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs radically from its general pattern within this one-day period.

    External Factors

    As per the request, external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports have not been considered in this analysis. Please note that these factors can significantly affect the exchange rates.

    Please note that this analysis gives a high-level understanding of the exchange trends, seasonality and possible outliers. For a more detailed and accurate interpretation, consider analysing a longer period of data and using more complex methods, including statistical ones.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overview of the Exchange Rate Trend

    The first aspect to consider in this analysis is the overall trend of the exchange rates. After examining the dataset, the rates seem to remain relatively stable during the period represented. The exchange rate has not significantly increased or decreased in the long run; instead, it has demonstrated a slight oscillation around a certain value (around the 0.197 mark), suggesting a mostly stable exchange rate.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    While the overall exchange rate appears to be stable, some patterns are observable, indicating the presence of certain influences on the rate. However, without additional data or information regarding the source and occurrence of these patterns, it's difficult to accurately identify these influences.

    From initial observation though, there appears to be no clear evidence of seasonality in this dataset. Considering that the phase is within a day, recurring patterns would, in this case, refer to intraday patterns (patterns occurring within the day). Seasonal patterns associated with a specific time of the day, week, or month cannot be identified from the data provided.

    Outliers and Unexpected Values

    Outliers are data points that differ significantly from the majority of the data or from what is expected based on the existing trend or pattern. In this dataset, no significant outliers can be identified. All values of the exchange rate remain in a relatively tight range, with no unexpected spikes or drops. This lack of outliers further indicates that the exchange rate remained relatively stable during this period.

    In conclusion, this data indicates a mostly stable exchange rate with no apparent seasonality or significant outliers. However, as always in financial analysis, it's crucial to remember that past performance is not necessarily predictive of future behaviours and variation in other external factors could produce different outcomes.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of DKK Exchange Rates

    The data provided outlines the changes in exchange rates (DKK) over a 24-hour period on 26th February 2024, with observations taken every 5 minutes in most cases. An exploratory analysis of the data yields several interesting insights which will be discussed below:

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of DKK exchange rates over this 24-hour period exhibits a slight increase. The rate began at 0.19617 and ended at 0.19655 at the end of the day. However, the movement throughout the day is relatively small, suggesting a generally stable exchange rate over this particular day.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given that the data only encompasses a single 24 hour period, discerning a clear seasonal pattern can be challenging. However, within this day the exchange rate exhibits cyclical fluctuations, bobbing back and forth around 0.1964 - 0.1966 during the midday and early afternoon, before sinking to lower levels closer to 0.1965 - 0.1966 from 18:00 through to close.

    3. Outliers and Unexpected Changes in Exchange Rates

    Most of the exchange rates in this dataset are within close proximity of each other, suggesting a stable day for the DKK. However, considering the minute-scale fluctuations, there are a couple of brief spikes that could be considered outliers. An example is seen between 15:00 to 16:00 where the exchange rates notably dip below what might be expected compared to the earlier and later observations. Similarly, slightly elevated rates are seen around 05:00.

    These slight outliers may be attributed to normal market fluctuations during the day, given that they do not deviate significantly and trend back towards the mean shortly after.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Based on the provided dataset, it seems that there is a slight downward trend in the exchange rates (DKK) from 0.19622 on 2024-01-26 12:00:03 to 0.19596 on 2024-02-23 06:00:02. There are minor fluctuations in between, but no considerable peaks or valleys are observed. This indicates that the general trend is slightly decreasing over the period shown.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    Upon examination of the dataset, there doesn't seem to be any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate data for this period. The data fluctuates irregularly throughout the period and doesn't display a consistent pattern that may be representative of a specific seasonal effect. To establish the existence of seasonality more definitively, an analysis over a longer period may be required.

    Noting any outliers

    In the given dataset, no significant outliers are observed that would significantly deviate from the overall downward trend of the exchange rates. The data appears to be quite stable with minor fluctuations over time. Therefore, it's safe to conclude that the given dataset does not contain any significant outliers.

    External factors consideration

    As per the instruction, this analysis does not consider any specific event or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports that might influence the exchange rates. The focus has been primarily on the timestamps data and the corresponding DKK exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the exchange rates seems to fluctuate mildly but within a relatively stable range. There does not appear to be a strong trend of increasing or decreasing over the period shown. The range mostly varies between 0.1947 and 0.1963.

    Identifying Seasonality

    It's quite hard to spot definitive cyclical or seasonal trends in exchange rates from this dataset. The data spans roughly four days, and at the outbound level, it's quite challenging to see any clear, recurring pattern within this period.

    Noting Outliers

    Within the given range, it appears that the highest outliers are around the value of 0.1963, which occurred on February 20th such instances could represent moments of higher volatility or significant market events. The lowest outliers are around 0.1947, occurring on February 19th. These outliers do not drastically diverge from the surrounding data, with variances sitting around 1-2% from the median value, suggesting a normally distributed curve.

    However, without a larger dataset that covers an extended period, it's challenging to provide a comprehensive understanding of the behavior of this exchange rate. More data points, such as weekly, monthly, or annual data, would provide greater insight into long-term trends, seasonality, and outliers.

    External Factors

    While the initial instructions advised us not to consider specific external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, it's important to note that such factors could have significant impacts on this exchange rate. Although the requested analysis does not take these factors into account, any thorough market study would consider them in the context of broader economic and financial trends.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    I will perform a general analysis of the dataset considering the goals of understanding the overall trend, identifying patterns or seasonality, and noting outliers. It's important to note that this analysis will not consider specific events or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays or the release of key financial news and reports. No forecast for future rates will be generated.

    Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the DKK exchange rate appears to be generally stable with some sporadic fluctuations. The rates seem to marginally rise and fall within a relatively narrow range, suggesting a stable market condition over the period shown. This is evident from the smallest rate being 0.19558, and the highest rate being 0.19620, a difference of only 0.00062.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Regarding the seasonality or recurring patterns, no distinct pattern or regularly repeating fluctuations in the exchange rates can be detected from the given dataset. The rates fluctuate at various times and do not exhibit a clear cyclic or seasonal pattern. A more granular dataset (hourly or minute-level data), or a longer time frame might be necessary to identify any potential seasonality.

    Outliers

    Regarding outliers in the exchange rate, there don't appear to be any significant outliers in the dataset provided. All exchange rates seem to fall within a small range and there are no instances where the exchange rate differs drastically from the majority of the observations. This is based on the assumption that an "outlier" would be a significant deviation from the observed range of 0.19558 - 0.19620.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, the DKK exchange rate over the period analyzed appears to be comparatively stable with minor fluctuations. There is no discernible seasonality or repeating pattern, and no significant outliers have been observed.