Latvian Lats Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    After analyzing the dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rate over the provided timespan has been observed with slight fluctuations but generally follows an upward trend over time. We can see that the rates started at 2.24412 and ended at 2.24352 despite some periodic rises and dips in between. However, further detailed analysis would provide more insights to ascertain the overall stability of the currency during this period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns Analysis

    The recurring patterns and seasonality in the dataset are somewhat less apparent due to fluctuations in the data; however, these might be present over larger spans of time that are not visible in this dataset. Further scrutiny could potentially identify daily patterns or cyclical fluctuations. Significant high and low points throughout the day could indicate the opening and closing of financial markets. Still, more detailed analysis and additional data would be needed to confirm these observations.

    Outliers Analysis

    No significant outliers were observed in the data provided. The exchange rates largely remain within a narrow range without extreme values. This indicates a relative level of stability in the currency during the period under examination.

    Please note that this analysis is based solely on the provided dataset and does not take into consideration external events or influences that might have an impact on currency exchange rates, such as key news announcements or changes in economic policy. Including such data would provide a more accurate and nuanced understanding of the currency's behavior and trends.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, based on the time-series dataset provided for the LVL exchange rates, the rates demonstrate a largely stable trend with some minor fluctuations. No clear seasonality or recurring patterns are visible, and no significant outliers were found. This analysis is limited to the scope of the dataset provided and does not take into account potential impacts from external events or factors.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Data Analysis

    The data set reflects the change in LVL exchange rate over time. The specified date range is from 28th February 2024 00:00:02 to 28th February 2024 23:55:02. The observations spread evenly within this timeframe.

    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The exchange rates seem to be fluctuating within a narrow range. It starts at a rate of 2.23976 at the beginning of the observed period, and it ends at a slightly higher rate of 2.24367. Although there are a few fluctuations, the overall trend seems to be moderately increasing. There does not appear to be a significant increase or decrease in the exchange rate, which indicates a relatively stable exchange market for this period.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the time frame of just one day, there's no clear evidence of seasonality in the data. If the data spanned multiple days (months or years), it would be more realistic to explore seasonal patterns such as daily, weekly or monthly trends. However, based on the provided data, it doesn't seem to exhibit recurring patterns within these intra-day rates that point towards a certain time of the day having significantly higher or lower rates consistently.

    Noting Any Outliers

    The LVL exchange rate appears to fluctuate normally throughout the day, but it does not show any significant spikes or drops, which could suggest the presence of outliers. Most rates on this particular day fall within the 2.243 to 2.245 range, which is a normal and expected range. There might be small variations, but no significant outliers from the general trend were found.

    Note: In order to perform a more thorough analysis, a larger data set would be required. With data spanning over a longer period, like multiple months or years, we would be able to identify long-term trends, seasonality, and outliers much more precisely.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The dataset provided contains exchange rates data from February 26, 2024. It appears that the exchange rate has fluctuated throughout the given period, seeing minor increases and decreases. There isn't a clear upward or downward trend when considering the entire range of data.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In examining the data more closely, some subtle patterns begin to emerge. The fluctuations appear to be regular, and there could be some level of seasonality within hours of each day though this is not entirely clear without further statistical analysis. Additionally, some regular small peaks and troughs suggest that there may be certain intraday times where the rate commonly increases or decreases.

    Noting any Outliers

    There are also a few potential outliers within the data. For instance, on February 26, 2024, at around 1:45 am, the exchange rate peaks at 2.23421 before sharply dropping at 2:10 am to 2.23337, and later at 4:05 am it drops to its lowest for the period at 2.23484. However, these shifts are quite minor and could merely reflect normal market volatility.

    It should be noted that without additional contextual data or knowledge of what events might have been occurring during these dates, it is difficult to definitively identify these instances as outliers or as part of the underlying data structure.

    Considering External Factors

    While the instruction was to not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, it's important to note that these factors can have a significant effect on exchange rates. Market hours and the release of financial news can also create unique patterns in financial time series data. However, these are not considered in this analysis due to the instructions given.

    Verdict

    From our analysis, the LVL exchange rate over this period at first appears relatively stable, with only minor hourly fluctuations. However, there could be underlying patterns within each trading day’s data or subtle changes between days that require more thorough statistical investigation to detect.

    Also note that any conclusions formed from this dataset would only apply to the period of data provided. Future predictions were not performed due to the instructions given.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The data spans over approximately one month and seems to show some minor fluctuations in the exchange rates. There is no clear upward or downward trend in the rates throughout this period, meaning there is no persistent increase or decrease in the exchange rates over the period shown. Instead, the rates appear to have been relatively stable with some minor fluctuations up and down.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Upon reviewing the data, there don't appear to be any apparent seasonal trends or recurring patterns. The exchange rates fluctuate in a rather unpredictable and non-recurring manner. There is no noticeable daily or weekly pattern in the fluctuations, nor do the fluctuations seem to follow any other cyclical pattern. However, such assessments would typically require analyzing a much longer stretch of data, spanning multiple years, to identify seasonality or recurring patterns accurately.

    Outliers Identification

    Most of the values in the dataset lie in a relatively narrow range, suggesting there aren't many significant outliers. The fluctuations are minor, with few instances of sharp increases or decreases in the exchange rates. No single rate significantly deviates from the general pattern of fluctuations. Thus, no apparent outliers were identified based on the given values. That said, more sophisticated statistical analysis methods might be able to detect slight outliers not readily visible from a high-level overview of the data.

    Remember, this analysis is based solely on the data provided and does not take into account any external factors or events which could have influenced these exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon examining the data, it seems that the LVL exchange rates generally fluctuate within a small range. There is no pronounced increasing or decreasing trend. While minor fluctuations are present, the overall value remains relatively stable. The lowest point seems to be 2.22414, and the highest 2.23697; hence, the difference is approximately 0.01283, which confirms that variability exists but is not extreme

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns of Exchange Rates

    Generally, time series data, like exchange rates, exhibit some seasonality or recurring patterns, such as daily or weekly cycles, but it's critical to remember that these cycles can alter due to factors like changing economic conditions or government policies. However, with the data provided, it is not possible to definitively observe a recurring pattern due to the lack of a lengthy time frame. It would seem that the data does not exhibit a clear daily or weekly pattern within this short timeframe. Nevertheless, for an accurate assessment of seasonality or recurring patterns, a more extended period or more granular data would be required.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    In the provided dataset, there are no clear outliers, meaning no significant anomalies are observed, which would be a departure from the assumed normal pattern. All changes, irrespective of their direction, are within the expected range of fluctuation. It's worth noting that outliers can be indicative of specific events or irregularities, but it appears there are none in this dataset.

    Limitations

    It's important to note that the provided dataset's analysis does have some limitations. First, given the size and timeframe of the data, it might not reveal long-standing patterns or trends. Second, factors like the opening/closing hours of markets, weekends/holidays, or vital financial news, may impact the exchange rates, which have not been considered in the analysis, as you requested. Despite these limitations, this analysis provides a basic understanding of the observed fluctuation in the LVL exchange rate within the specified timeframe.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Upon examining the dataset, it's clear that the exchange rates for the LVL currency experienced fluctuations throughout the observation period. The exchange began at a rate of 2.22868 and ended at 2.23218. While this signifies a modest increase over time, the movement of exchange rates was not monotonically rising or declining during the interval. Instead, it was marked by periods of rises and drops, indicating an unstable exchange rate.

    Identifying Seasonality within the Exchange Rates

    At first glance, discernable seasonality within the provided LVL exchange rate data is notable. The rates continually fluctuate between certain values over short durations before shifting towards a new range. However, without the day of the week data and information about currency market opening hours, it's challenging to draw more specific conclusions about the exact seasonality occurrence duration or pattern repetition frequency. Furthermore, no significant regularities can be determined based solely on the timestamp information in the provided data set.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates Data

    Outliers are considered to be extremely low or high values that differ significantly from most data points. In our context, an outlier exchange rate would be one that drastically differs from the rates before and after it. Upon reviewing the data, however, no such outliers can be spotted. Some spikes and dips are larger than others, but these appear to be part of the general volatility of the data rather than isolated, odd values.They don't seem to break away from the overall pattern of fluctuations.

    It's important to note that all these observations are purely based on the given data and don't take into consideration external factors like political events, financial news, market behavior, or similar data points from previous years, etc.