Turkmenistan New Manat Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

First and foremost, we will look at the overall trend of this time-series data. From the initial analysis, it can be concluded that the overall trend of the exchange rates over the surveyed time period indicates some form of stability with minor variations. The TMT exchange rate starts and ends at around 0.390. However, there exist tiny dips and surges between these points giving an appearance of a subtle hill-valley formation - indicating a fluctuating trend.

Recurring Patterns and Seasonality

It's difficult to directly infer seasonality or recurring patterns from this dataset as it only covers a single day's timeframe. For a deeper and more accurate identification of seasonality trends, data covering numerous cycles (typically, multiple years) would be more suitable. This helps in identifying recurrent yearly, quarterly, or monthly patterns, if any. Nonetheless, it's worth mentioning that some minor variations in the exchange rates can be observed at regular intervals indicating potential intraday patterns, which might be attributable to the trading behavior.

Outliers and Unexpected Rate Changes

No significant outliers or unexpected rate changes can be detected from the provided data. The exchange rate floats around 0.390 for the most part with frequent but minor fluctuations. The smallest observed rate is 0.38928 at the times 13:10:03 and 13:15:03, and the highest is 0.39107 around the 08:15:02 mark. These do not seem to be significant deviations to classify them as outliers, especially given the foreign exchange market is a highly volatile one.

To conclude, while this simple analysis provides some insights, for more advanced interpretations including volatility, trend strength, and predictive modeling, more sophisticated methods like statistical modeling and machine learning might be necessary.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overview and Trend Analysis

From the data, the overall exchange rate of TMT seems fairly stable. The exchange rate moves in a small range, indicating that there is relative stability in the market. Although there are minor fluctuations, the trend line would likely show a flat slope, indicating little to no increase or decrease overall.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The timestamps provided do not cover a sufficiently long period to fully determine seasonality or recurring patterns. Analysis of seasonality generally needs several years worth of data to confirm if there is any cyclical fluctuation pattern over different periods. However, there is a noticeable pattern in the provided data: within each day, the exchange rate appears to have slight undulations, suggesting intra-day volatility.

Notable Outliers and Volatility

While several data points diverge from the average, there are no significant outliers or major spikes that suggest an unexpected event influencing the exchange rates drastically. The general stability of the dataset, along with the absence of extreme outliers, suggests a lesser degree of volatility. It indicates that there are no significant shocks or abrupt market movements during the period in the dataset.

Impact of External Events

As requested, the analysis does not take into account specific events or periods like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. However, it's important to remember that such events often have significant impacts on exchange rates in real-world situations.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of TMT Exchange Rates

The provided dataset indicates the TMT exchange rate over the course of a single day, specifically on 23rd April 2024. Looking at the start and end values, the exchange rate appears to decrease slightly over the day. The day starts with an exchange rate of roughly 0.39139 and ends with approximately 0.39043. However, it's not a consistent decrement as the rate fluctuates throughout the day.

Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

As the data is limited to a single day, it is difficult to infer a certain seasonal trend or recurring pattern. However, intraday analysis shows that the exchange rate experienced highs and lows throughout the day. Notably, the highest rate for that day was around 0.39182 while the lowest is around 0.39016.

Outliers in TMT Exchange Rates

On this particular day, there are slight fluctuations in the rate but no significant deviation or outliers were detected. It's important to remember that subtle changes in exchange rates within a day could still have a tangible impact on profit margins, especially for high volume transactions. It would be beneficial to analyze the data over a broader time span, such as over months or years, to construct a more robust trend analysis, identify potential seasonality, and better detect any outliers.

Note: To ascertain reliable insights, it'll be quite useful to investigate additional data from more time periods. A single day's data is typically inadequate to determine comprehensive trends and patterns. Likewise, checking the exchange rates against certain external events, market conditions and/or financial news would yield a more sophisticated analysis.

Summary of Last Month

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

After examining the time series data given, it can be observed that the overall trend of the TMT exchange rate is relatively stable with minor fluctuations. There’s no clear-cut evidence of a consistent increase or decrease during this period. The rates varied between approximately 0.390 and 0.392 units throughout the given timeframe.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not clearly suggest a specific pattern within the given timestamps. Small crests and troughs exist around certain intervals, but these do not appear to follow a consistent cycle or recurrence. It is important to note that without incorporating external factors like specific event occurrence or weekly cyclical patterns due to market activity or financial news releases, identifying a seasonality might be challenging here.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

The dataset appears to be relatively smooth without any significant spikes or drops indicative of outliers. Since outliers are generally detected as values that deviate significantly from the overall pattern or trend, the absence of such a value implies that there are no outliers within this dataset. Therefore, all values of the exchange rate remain within a reasonable range of fluctuation and follow the prevalent trend.

Conclusion

As a whole, the interpretation of this dataset portrays a stable landscape for the TMT exchange rate. Despite small fluctuations, the rate remained relatively consistent throughout the covered period. Furthermore, there was no clear evidence of repeated or recurring trends in this dataset. This seems to reflect a period of stability with insignificant disturbances. As a financial analyst, it's essential to remember that the examination of time series data, like this, can offer invaluable insights into potential trends, anomalies, and patterns; however, it might not always signal future behaviours accurately.

Summary of Last Week

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates seems to fluctuate slightly at a near steady rate across the time period. The rates kick off at around 0.39 and drop slightly to the 0.38 range, and then the trend repeats. It however ends at around 0.3915, depicting a slightly increasing trend across the time period. Taking a broader view, it shows a somewhat consistent fluctuation at a steady rate throughout the given period. This speaks of a certain level of stability in the time-series data provided.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

The exchange rates do not show an apparent seasonal or recurring pattern. But, a somewhat uniformity can be observed as the rate starts on a high note, drops slightly, rises again and then tends to hover around a certain range before ending on a slightly high note. This cycle is repeated with minor deviations. Although one might argue that the minor ups and downs could relate to the opening and closing hours of the exchange market or weekdays/weekends, a clearly marked seasonal pattern is not decipherable from the provided data.

Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

With respect to the overall trend, there aren't any significant outliers. The exchange rate generally stays within a somewhat predictable range with minor fluctuations. Some instances could be identified having a slightly steeper rate compared to their immediate predecessors or successors (for example, rate around 0.3868 dropping to 0.38537). However, this slight variation is usual in financial datasets and doesn't represent a significant deviation from the observed trend.

In conclusion, the exchange rates in the given time series data remain relatively stable throughout the time period, with minor peaks and lows. These fluctuations are common in financial data, reflecting the dynamic nature of the financial market.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

This data includes hourly exchange rates for TMT over the course of several days.

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

At first glance, the TMT exchange rates from the dataset provided appear to fluctuate within a limited range over the given period. The rate slightly increased in the first days, reaching a peak around 2024-04-16 10:00:03 with a rate of 0.39512. Then it gradually decreased, and it reached its lowest point on 2024-04-19 12:00:03 with a value of 0.3915. This indicates a potential negative trend, but it's difficult to define the primary trend with this relatively small dataset.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

In our dataset, it is difficult to point out specific seasonality trends given the relatively short time frame of the provided data. However, a slightly higher rate seems to appear around 10:00:00 to 11:00:00 timeslots consistently.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

From the provided data, there does not appear to be significant outliers. The exchange rates show regular fluctuations but without extreme deviations from the typical range. However, the steep drop towards the end of the observed period is noteworthy. The value reaches its lowest point, that is, on 2024-04-19 12:00:03 it is 0.3915, which is a significant difference from the rates a few days before.

Just as a reminder, this analysis decontextualizes from external events that could significantly impact the exchange rate, as requested. For more precise results, it would be recommended to increase the observation period and consider specific external events.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The provided data shows a fluctuation in the TMT exchange rate over the time period provided. Initially, the rate slightly increased from 0.39368 to 0.39391 then gradually decreased to 0.39291 before increasing again to 0.39354. Then it showed a declining trend and fell to 0.39231 and again started to rise to 0.39268. Finally, the rates decreased towards 0.39179 towards the end of the time series. Therefore, overall trend is generally declining with minor rises.

Seasonality and Recurring Pattern

Looking at the data, it is hard to identify a concrete seasonality or recurring pattern within the provided data largely because the time period covered is quite short. There's no clear repetition of any pattern; however, rates seem to decrease sharply then slowly rise up again repeatedly. A concrete conclusion on seasonality can only be made with a larger dataset covering several months or years for better insight.

Outliers Identification

Similarly, without a larger and more comprehensive dataset, identifying outlier instances is challenging. In the provided time-series data, there are observable fluctuations, the most significant of which occur in the latter portion of the dataset, but these are part of the trend rather than outliers. Therefore, it would be ideal to further investigation and more sophisticated techniques to accurately identify any outliers.

Note: This analysis is based on the provided dataset only. External factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, release of key financial news and reports were not considered