Dalasi Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The dataset begins with an exchange rate of 0.01999 and concludes at 0.01996. Despite some fluctuation, the exchange rate appears to generally remain stable over the observed period. We see a slight increase from 0.01999 to 0.02003 within the initial hours (up to approximately 5:35 am). After this, the rate remains mostly static at 0.02 with slight variations until around 7:40 am, after which there's a slight drop to revert back to around the initial levels. A slight overall dip can be observed from the initial to the final time stamp. Such patterns suggest that although there are intraday fluctuations, the overall trend over this period is marginally negative but largely seems to remain stable.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Due to brevity of the dataset (covering roughly 24 hours), it's not viable to identify significant seasonal or recurring patterns. However, small fluctuations can be seen throughout the day. For a more clear analysis on any possible recurring patterns, an extended dataset covering multiple weeks, months or even years might be necessary.

    Noting any Outliers

    Broadly, the fluctuations in the GMD exchange rate within the dataset are minor, the extreme values being 0.01995 and 0.02003. Thus, it can be deduced that no significant outliers exist in this dataset, given the very small scale of the fluctuations.

    With respect to the trend and scale of exchange rates in the dataset, it would appear that the variability in the rates are within a normal range for currency exchange fluctuations.

    External Factors

    As per the instructions, the analysis has not considered any external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Including such factors in the analysis can certainly yield a more detailed understanding of the dataset and why certain fluctuations might have occurred. However, this analysis serves as a fundamental, data-driven inspection of the GMD exchange rate over the observed 24-hour period.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Data Overview

    The provided dataset consists of gmd exchange rates at specific timestamps from 2024-02-28 00:00:02 to 2024-02-28 23:55:02. A closer look at the dataset reveals a small range of variation in the gmd exchange rates ranging between 0.01995 and 0.02004.

    Overall Trend

    From an initial look at the data, the exchange rate does not show a large degree of variation within the specific timescale considered - the rate does not increase or decrease in an exponential manner. This may suggest overall stability in this specific exchange rate within this day. This is based on the fact that the difference between minimum and maximum points of the rate is minimal.

    Seasonality

    Given that the data provided consists of a single day's timestamps, it is difficult to identify definitive seasonal trends or recurring patterns. The dataset would need to span a longer period to accurately identify seasonality trends with changes in rates, such as weekly or monthly cycles. A possible pattern that we can identify within this relatively short series is that the rate seems to slowly escalate throughout the day with a few fluctuations. However, without more data and context, it's hard to say whether this pattern repeats consistently over a longer period.

    Outliers

    No significant outliers were identified in the dataset. This is likely because the gmd exchange rate does not experience drastic spikes or dips within the timeframe analysed. Variations that may have appeared significant in a larger sample might be somewhat muted in a single day's data.

    External Factor Considerations

    Your request specified that I should not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or key financial news and reports. As such, I have not incorporated these into my analysis. External factors, however, very often heavily influence currency exchange rate.

    To conclude, this brief look at the gmd exchange rate over a single day indicates relative stability, without any major spikes or dips. However, for a more comprehensive analysis, particularly concerning seasonality and recurrent trends, a larger dataset encompassing a broader timeframe would be helpful.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    After visualizing and analyzing the entire dataset of GMD exchange rates, it seems that the exchange rates were mostly stable during the whole period. The change occurs in fractions only. It started with a value of 0.02008 and ended with a value of 0.01991. Overall, the GMD exchange rates seem to have slightly decreased over time, but the changes are relatively minimal and mostly stable.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Time series analysis usually involves looking out for seasonality or recurring patterns. However, given the limited range of values and the time period, it's hard to identify a clear pattern or seasonality. An hourly analysis doesn't reveal any significant patterns, the exchange rate's small variations appear to occur sporadically rather than regularly. On a broader scale, it appears to be a slight downward trend over the period, but further data and analysis would be needed to confirm this as a pattern.

    Identifying Outliers

    Upon reviewing the GMD exchange rates in the dataset, there doesn't appear to be any significant outliers within the given timespan. Most values are concentrated around the 0.02008 to 0.01991 range, and no extreme values deviating from this range that would be considered statistically significant outliers.

    The exchange rate generally fluctuates within a very narrow range with no drastic rises or drops at any given point in time. This suggests a relatively stable and consistent exchange rate during this time period.

    Remember, financial data such as this can be influenced by many factors not included in this dataset, such as economic news events, market sentiment, and global economic indicators.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Based on the data provided, it is observed that the overall change in GMD exchange rates exhibit a minor decline trend. From an initial point of 0.02001 on 2024-01-26, the value tended to generally decrease over time till the endpoint at 0.02007 on 2024-02-23, with few intermittent periods of minor increases.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Seasonality or recurring patterns in financial time-series data are fluctuations that repeat with a fixed period of time. There seems to be no clear sign of seasonality in the data provided. The values appear to fluctuate within a tight range, which means the data seems to be relatively stable with limited volatility. However, to make a definitive statement, a more sophisticated time-series analysis involving algorithms that can specifically detect seasonal variations is necessary.

    Notable Outliers

    As for the outliers, it's difficult to exactly point out without applying an appropriate statistical measure like z-score or IQR. However, considering visual analysis only, no significant outliers (a value that is distinctly different from other values) were observed in the provided data set.

    Summary

    • The overall trend of exchange rates seems to be slightly decline over the provided timeline.
    • No clear seasonality or recurring patterns were observed in the given data.
    • As per the raw data shared, no significant outliers were detected.

    Please note that these interpretations are purely based on the raw data provided and without considering any specific financial events, holidays, market timing or financial reports which could have an impact on the exchange rate trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rate seems to be generally increasing with a few occasional dips. The data starts at a value of 0.01989 and ends at 0.02007. However, the increase is not substantial and could almost constitute a stable trend with minor fluctuations.

    Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

    Though there are minor fluctuations in the data, the exchange rate does not seem to exhibit a clear seasonality or recurring pattern based on the given data. While some minor fluctuations occur, they do not seem to follow a specific pattern, with periods of rising and falling rates seemingly occurring at random intervals. This suggests that the exchange rates could be influenced by various unpredictable factors and events.

    Noting any Outliers

    The exchange rate largely hovers between 0.01989 and 0.02007 throughout the dataset period. There do not appear to be any significant outliers in this dataset, as the values provided do not differ substantially from the general trend. However, a slight increase to 0.02007 and the lowest dip to 0.01987 towards the end of the given data period could be noted.

    Additional Observations

    The specific events or potential external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports are not considered in this analysis as per the instructions. Therefore, the observed minor fluctuations in the exchange rates could be subject to a variety of unforeseen factors and occurrences in the financial world.

    It is important to note that exchange rates, including the GMD, can be volatile and subject to rapid change due to a range of economic factors. Therefore, while this analysis provides a general trend and overview of the dataset period, it cannot accurately predict future exchange rate movements.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    After the comprehensive examination of the provided data, the overall trend in the exchange rates seems to be relatively stable. The rates start at 0.02004 at the beginning of this sequence and end at 0.02007 at the end. While there are fluctuations within this range throughout the time series, there isn't a clear upward or downward trend. The rate mostly fluctuates within the range of 0.02001 to 0.02009.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Regarding the second goal; seasonality or recurring patterns, this would typically require data spanning multiple years to analyze seasonal effects clearly. However, based on the provided dataset spanning a short period, there do not seem to be any obvious recurring patterns to the exchange rates within this period. There are instances of micro rises and falls during the timespan, but there’s no clear evidence of a cyclical event or recurring pattern.

    3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Outliers from the general pattern can be of significant interest. These could be due to extreme market conditions or anomalies in the data collection process. In this case, there are no extreme outliers in the dataset. The exchange rates fluctuate within a narrow range, with a lowest observed rate of 0.02001 and a highest of 0.02009. Rates such as these, which are within close proximity of each other, signal that there aren't any significant outliers in this dataset.

    In summary, the dataset shows a relatively stable trend of the GMD exchange rates over the observed period, with the rates showing negligible volatility. It is also important to recognize that other external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial reports could have an impact on the exchange rate trend, even though they haven't been considered in this analysis.