Pa Anga Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analyzing the provided data which gives exchange rate changes over time, a few key observations can be made:

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

While the fluctuations are small and consistent, there still seems to be a slight upward trend. This means that over the entire period, the exchange rate somewhat increased albeit very slightly. It started at 0.57555 at the beginning and closed at 0.57616, showing a slight increase.

2. Seasonality and Patterns in Exchange Rate Changes

Though a deeper analysis with more data would provide more accuracy, the data does not show any specific pattern or seasonality in the changes. The rates fluctuate in a relatively consistent manner, without showing distinct cycles or patterns tied to the specific times of day or days of the week. The changes don't repeat a pattern that could be tied to a particular "season" in the traditional or business cycle sense.

3. Outliers and Unexpected Variations

Given the consistent and small changes in the rate throughout the period, there doesn't seem to be any significant outliers in this dataset. The exchange rate remains within a small range, implying that there aren't instances where the rate deviates significantly from the trend or any noticeable pattern. This trend exhibits minimal volatility in terms of significant spikes or dives.

Note: Deeper and more advanced statistical analysis methods like ARIMA, SARIMA, Prophet etc., could potentially reveal more insights and nuances about the data. Nevertheless, from the basic analysis of this limited dataset, we can conclude the observations laid out above.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Trend Analysis

Based on the given dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be slightly decreasing. Starting from a value of 0.57731, the rate peaked at 0.57794 and then gradually descended to a final value of 0.5755 towards the end of the time series. Despite small fluctuations, the overall trend demonstrates a slight depreciation in its value.

Seasonality Analysis

Due to limited scope of this dataset which spans a single day, it is challenging to firmly establish a seasonal pattern or recurring cycles in the exchange rate fluctuations. There are cycles of ups and downs, but these do not present a clear pattern of seasonality within the timeframe given in the data.

Outlier Analysis

Within this dataset, it doesn't appear to have major outliers or extreme values that deviate significantly from the pattern of the rest of the data points. All observed fluctuations in exchange rates seem to be within an expected range and no individual data point stands out as significantly higher or lower than the others.

Additional Observations

  • While the overall trend is slightly downward, there are periods of both increase and decrease in the exchange rate throughout the duration.
  • Exchange rate volatility, while present, appears to be relatively minimal and contained within a predictable range.
  • The most significant changes in exchange rate often seem to occur within a relatively short timeframe, suggesting rapid response to real-time market conditions.

Please note that these observations are based purely on the provided time-series data itself and do not consider any broader economic factors or events that might have been influencing the exchange rates at these particular moments. To form a more complete and accurate analysis, additional information on factors such as market conditions, global events or national economic indicators would be essential.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Daily Low:
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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates throughout the day is somewhat stable with minor fluctuations. The exchange rate starts around 0.57812 in the beginning at 00:05 and ends the day at 0.57734 around 23:55. Minimal fluctuations in rate values are noticed and a similar rise and drop pattern is seen multiple times throughout the day suggesting it's more or less stable throughout the day.

Seasonality or recurring patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, certain fluctuations can be seen during different time intervals. Various peaks and troughs can be observed throughout the day, but without a clear indication of a regular pattern. There isn't a consistent time where we could expect a substantial increase or decrease in exchange rates based on this data set.

Outliers

With regards to outliers, the dataset provided doesn't possess major deviations from the overall observed pattern. This concludes that there aren't many instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the expected trend, suggesting an overall stability with a few minor fluctuations during this period.

While the analysis does not take into consideration external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and release of key financial news and reports, bear in mind these factors can potentially have a significant impact on the exchange rates and could explain some of the fluctuations seen in the data.

The dataset, however, does not deliver enough information to extract strong patterns or trend lines to predict future rates and the above mentioned analysis is based purely on the provided data.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

The overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be relatively stable but with a slight downwards tendency. The highest rate was 0.57881, observed on 2024-04-15 21:40:01, and the lowest rate was 0.57529, observed on 2024-04-15 08:05:03. The difference between these two extremes is quite small, suggesting that the rates varied within a relatively narrow band. Without considering any external factors, we can conclude that the rates generally remained stable over this specific period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As for the seasonality or recurring patterns, given the short-term nature of this data set (covering only a single day), it's difficult to definitively identify such patterns. A more extended time series, covering several months or years, may be more suitable for detecting seasonality or recurring patterns in exchange rates changes. However, on an initial review, the data does not display clear repeating patterns.

Noting Outliers

In terms of outliers or instances where the exchange rates significantly differ from what would be expected based on the trend, the most notable ones are the high of 0.57881 at 2024-04-15 21:40:01 and the low of 0.57529 at 2024-04-15 08:05:03. These rates break noticeably from the general stability of the data set.

It's important to note that this kind of fluctuation in forex markets can be relatively common and might not necessarily indicate an anomaly. If outliers should be further analysed, more sophisticated statistical analysis methods might be needed, such as the Z-score or the Modified Z-score method, and these might need more data to be effectively implemented.

That said, due to the short-term nature of this data set (it spans across a single day), the recognized outliers may not significantly impact the broader trend in the exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

Analyzing the data set, it appears that exchange rates fluctuated within a certain range between 0.5666 and 0.5794 throughout the dates provided. The trend doesn't show a clear increasing or decreasing pattern of the rates over the period; rather, it hints towards a somewhat stable oscillation, with occasional peaks and troughs. The frequent up and down shifts, and no significant long-term increase or decrease, suggest that exchange rates stayed relatively stable during the time frame provided.

2. Identifying Seasonality

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns,it's challenging to deduce clear-cut seasonal patterns in the given dataset without relevant additional context. Seeing that the dataset contains minute-by-minute data for mostly two-hour intervals across multiple days, it is tough to say for certain if there are recurring daily or weekly patterns. However, a pattern that several higher values are more frequent around specific hours might be noted which suggests a potential daily seasonality pattern, but it implies further statistical analysis to substantiate.

3. Noting any Outliers

From an overall view, the following observations could potentially be seen as outliers:

  • On 2024-03-26, rates rise substantially, peaking at 0.5762, only to fall back to around 0.5716 the following day. Such a sharp fluctuation starts above the common range observed in the provided period.
  • On 2024-04-10, a similarly significant rise is noticed when the rates increase to 0.57826, which are some of the highest values registered in the dataset. The rates then drop back down to 0.57528 the next day.
  • On 2024-03-20, exchange rates fall to 0.56764, one of the lowest values in the period, only to rise up to around 0.5694 the following day.

These are sporadic instances where the rates deviated notably from the typical range. They may be attributable to external factors not captured in the dataset, and further examination would be essential to understand what caused these deviations.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

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