Zloty Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon analyzing the data provided, it is clear that the PLN exchange rates show an upwards trend over this period. The values started at 0.33824 and ended at 0.33936, showing a noticeable but slight increase. While there are fluctuations throughout the time period, the overall long-term trend is towards a higher exchange rate.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurrent behavior, this dataset being intraday data, there's no clear evidence of daily seasonality due to the fact that we are looking at snippets of data within a day. For a more accurate demonstration of seasonality, daily or monthly data might be more appropriate. However, there are constant fluctuations where the exchange rate increases and drops at numerous times throughout the day.

Outliers and Abnormalities

This dataset seems to be reasonably smooth without any significant noticeable outliers. While there are fluctuations in the exchange rate, none of them appear to be particularly extreme when compared to the rest of the data. However, it would be worthwhile performing statistical tests or creating a box-plot for a more definitive check for outliers.

In summary, the exchange rates have shown a slight upwards trend during this specific period with constant fluctuations throughout the day. Outlier analysis does not suggest significant abnormalities in the dataset, presuming the data provided is accurate. As requested, no external factors have been considered in this analysis, and no prediction for future rates is provided.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Based on the provided data, the general trend of the PLN exchange rate seems to be relatively stable, with minor fluctuations over time. The highest recorded exchange rate during the period was 0.33953, and the lowest recorded exchange rate was 0.3385, which indicates a small range of fluctuation. However, it does appear that the exchange rate slightly decreases as we move from the start time to the end of the dataset.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

While more sophisticated statistical methods would be required to firmly establish the presence of seasonality, the data does not seem to exhibit strong recurring patterns based on the time of day or other evident factors. The exchange rate fluctuations seem to be more random and influenced by factors not present in the dataset.

Outliers in the Data

From a preliminary analysis, there don't seem to be any obvious outliers in the data. The exchange rate remains within a tight range, with no values that stand out as being significantly different from the others. However, more sophisticated outlier detection methods may yield different results.

It's important to note that this conclusion is made based purely on the numerical dataset and doesn't take into account external factors which might have a bearing on the currency exchange rate. While we've met the request to disregard factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, these elements often have a significant impact on financial data and are typically included in comprehensive analyses.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview

Our dataset consists of time-series data and represents the fluctuations in PLN exchange rates at different time intervals within a single day. There are approximately 183 data points that span from 2024-04-23 00:00:02 to 2024-04-23 23:55:02 (approx. 24-hour coverage).

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

An apparent trend in this dataset is that, over a 24-hour period, the exchange rate remained relatively stable, with small periods of increases and decreases. The dataset started with a PLN rate of 0.33814 at midnight (2024-04-23 00:00:02) and ended with a rate of 0.33949 at 23:55:02. This presented slight growth in the exchange rates over the course of the day.

2. Seasonality or recurring patterns

Within this dataset, there doesn't appear to be any strong indication of seasonality or recurring daily patterns. However, this may be primarily due to the small timespan (1 day) covered by the data. Identifying seasonal patterns would require more extended periods (week, month, or year) of data analysis.

3. Noting any outliers

There weren't any significant outliers observable in the given dataset that deviated from the overall trend. Exceptions could have occurred if sudden peaks or troughs were present (representing rapid appreciation or depreciation of currency), but there was no such variance observed.

Overall, this was a very stable day for the PLN exchange rates, with only very slight fluctuations visible in this timespan.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates is predominantly downward. Starting from an initial rate of 0.33999 at the beginning of the time period, the PLN rate has generally decreased over the period, finishing at 0.33817 at the end. The downward shift has been gradual and only slight, showing a small but consistent depreciation in value. However, throughout there were small periods of appreciation which were then invariably followed by a depreciation.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

There seems to be a daily cycle where the exchange rate is relatively more volatile during certain periods, followed by more stable periods. This could be potentially correlated with the opening and closing times of major global foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, there also seems to be slight weekly patterns where the rate tends to be relatively more stable at the start of each week, and more variable later on. However, more data would be needed to establish a clear seasonal pattern.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

There are some instances where the exchange rate undergoes larger changes compared to the average change. These instances can be seen as outliers compared to the general trend. However, these seem to occur infrequently and make up a relatively small portion of the data points, indicating a general stability in the exchange rates.

It is also noteworthy that these larger fluctuations do not seem to disrupt the overall downward trend of the exchange rates. Following these instances, the rates have generally returned to align with the prevailing trend quickly.

In conclusion, the analysis shows that the exchange rates experience a relatively consistent downward trend over the period, with a few instances of significant changes. While there are certain recurring patterns regarding the volatility of the rates, these do not translate to predictable changes in the rates themselves.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon observing the given dataset it can be deduced that there is a subtle fluctuation in the exchange rates of PLN. The PLN exchange rate tends to fluctuate within a small range over the period of time in question, without showing a significant overall upward or downward trend. However, a closer inspection may be needed to determine if a more detailed view of the exchange rates over time will reveal more complex patterns.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring patterns

Analyzing the timestamps transversely with the PLN rate, there isn't any visible seasonality or recurring pattern in the given dataset. The exchange rates do not appear to demonstrate a significant degree of seasonality within the days covered by the dataset. However, a further in-depth time-series analysis with a larger dataset spanning over months or years could be useful in pointing out seasonal trends or more accurate patterns.

3. Noting any outliers

In terms of outliers, there are no obvious instances where the exchange rate spikes or dips significantly, diverging from the overall pattern. The rates neither peaked drastically nor dropped suddenly, indicating a lack of extreme outliers in the given dataset. However, detailed statistical analysis is recommended to spot subtle outliers that may not be immediately noticeable from a general overview.

Please note that this analysis is a relatively basic interpretation of the given time-series data and more detailed analysis methods (e.g., using machine learning models or complex statistical analysis) may reveal deeper insights or more subtle trends.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

The dataset starts at 0.3419 PLN on the timestamp '2024-04-15 01:00:02' and ends at 0.33969 PLN on the timestamp '2024-04-19 13:00:02'. If we compare these two points, it seems there has been a slight decrease in the PLN exchange rate over the observed time period. The drop is subtle, so it can be said that the rate relatively remained steady throughout this period.

Seasonality or recurring pattern

Given the five-day span of this data, it is hard to definitively identify seasonal patterns. However, we do see some daily fluctuations. A recurring pattern might be that the exchange rate often hits daily lows around the time of '06:00:02', and peaks around '10:00:02'. This could indicate the influence of daily trading activity in financial markets but it would need a longer time series to confirm any cyclic behavior or seasonality.

Outliers in the dataset

Overall, the changes in the exchange rates are steady and no major spikes or dips stand out, which means there are likely no significant outliers in this dataset. The slight variations we do see, are common in such time-series financial data and do not represent unexpected values. Notably, the exchange rate drops to 0.33544 at '2024-04-18 22:00:02' which is the lowest point in these five days, but it quickly recovers and does not disrupt the overall trend.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data Analysis Summary

Given the provided time series data of PLN exchange rate changes, we can observe the following:

Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

From the data given, it appears that the PLN currency exchange rate has an overall slight upward trend within the timeframe provided. The rate starts off at 0.3366 and ends up at approximately 0.33976. However, the increase does not happen steadily, and there are noticeable fluctuations in the rates throughout the day.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Determining seasonality or cyclic behaviours in such a small dataset is challenging as it typically requires a few cycles of data. Having data for each hour of the day across multiple days can show if there is a recurring pattern or seasonality throughout a 24-hour period (intraday seasonality). However, one thing that can be noticed is that there tend to be small rises and falls in the rates throughout the day, indicating there may be some intraday volatility in the exchange rates.

Identification of Any Outliers

Within the provided dataset, it's challenging to conclusively identify outliers as significant deviations from the trend are not exceptionally noticeable. Most observed fluctuations range within a small band between 0.336 – 0.340. That said, without knowledge about standard deviation or knowing what would constitute a uniquely significant change in the exchange rate in this context, it's challenging to identify a particular point as a definite outlier.

For a more detailed or holistic analysis, it would be beneficial to have more long-term data, as well as external data that often play a significant role in exchange rates, such as inflation rates, interest rates, and economic indicators.