Zloty Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    To understand the overall trend of the exchange rates, the value of PLN was plotted against time. From the data, it is evident that the exchange rate mostly fluctuated within a narrow range. The value started around 0.34035 at the beginning of the day and ended around 0.34009 at the end of the day. Despite fluctuations throughout the day and initial depreciation, the value seems relatively stable over time.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not provide clear evidence. The fluctuations appear to be somewhat random, without a distinctive repetitive or cyclical pattern. However, this could also be due to the short-term nature of the data that is confined to one day. Longer-term data would provide a clearer picture of any potential seasonal patterns in the exchange rates.

    Nting Any Outliers

    Regarding outliers, there seems to be none in this particular dataset. The exchange rate mainly oscillates within a tight range. None of the recorded values appear to be significantly distinct or far off from the majority of the other values.

    Consideration of External Factors

    For this analysis, it was explicitly mentioned not to consider any specific social events or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. However, it's worth noting that these factors can have significant effects on exchange rates in reality.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The data provided gives a snapshot of the exchange rate for the PLN over a period of 24 hours on February 28, 2024. From a simple visual inspection of the data, it appears that the rate has been mostly steady, with little significant movement either way.

    The exchange rate started at 0.3403 at 00:00:02, and wrapped up at 0.3403 at 23:55:02 the same day. This shows a nearly flat trend over the one-day period.

    Identify Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As a financial analyst, I understand that exchange rates follow an intraday pattern, and prices usually have highs and lows during the trading time. However, considering the data is only for one day, it's difficult to make any certain judgments about seasonality or recurring patterns.

    Note: An analysis that spans over larger time frames, like weeks, months, or years, would yield a clearer view of recurring patterns.

    Outliers and Significant Changes

    From the given data, there were no significant fluctuations or outliers observed. The exchange rate seemed to range tightly around the 0.34 level for the entire period. The maximum rate was 0.34221 at 06:50:02 and the minimum rate was 0.33998 at 10:05:03. Again, these observations would be much more robust if a larger dataset were available.

    Summary

    In conclusion, it appears that the exchange rate was fairly stable for the day with no significant deviations from the mean. It's important to remember though that this analysis is limited due to the scope of the data, and trading rates might show more variability over a longer timeframe.

    Also, it should be noted that the times when big moves are likely to happen in the currency markets, such as market opening and closing times, the release of economic data and news events, are not evident from the data provided.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of PLN Exchange Rates Dataset:

    The dataset consists of time-stamped data for changes in the PLN exchange rate. The timestamps range from 00:00:02 to 23:55:02 on February 26, 2024. Each record displays the time of measurement and the associated exchange rate at that specific time. Both elements are successive, indicating that the data is a time series, captured at frequent intervals within a day.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend:

    From analysing the given time series data, it appears that the PLN exchange rate fluctuates within a narrow range of ~0.339 to ~0.341 for the entire day. Though minor fluctuations occur throughout the day, the rate tends to remain somewhat constant and there isn't a discernible sharp increasing or decreasing overall trend throughout the data set.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

    The data provided is only for a single day, making it challenging to identify any seasonal or recurring patterns in the exchange rate. For discerning any seasonality, we need data spanning multiple periods (like weeks, months, etc.). However, there are slight fluctuations in rates throughout the day. These fluctuations might be connected to market trading hours, economic data releases, etc., but with the current limited single-day data, it's not possible to confirm any recurring pattern.

    3. Noting Outliers:

    Outliers in financial time-series data, such as exchange rates, would be instances of sudden and significant surge or drop. In the current dataset, these drastic changes are quite absent. All rate changes occur within a very tight range of ~0.339 to ~0.341. Hence we can conclude that no significant outliers are present in this data series. Further investigation might be necessary to confirm this, but this would need a more detailed data set with a broader range of variables.

    In conclusion, the given dataset describing the PLN exchange rate fluctuations within a single day shows a stable trend without any significant outliers and recurring pattern.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    From a brief overview of the data, it can be seen that exchange rates for PLN have experienced some fluctuations over the time period provided. There's an upward movement visible in the exchange rates from 0.33295 on 2024-01-26 to 0.33923 on 2024-02-23 with considerable fluctuation in between. The rise, however, is not straightforward and there are periods of decrease in the exchange rate as well.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the data span across almost a month, it could be a bit challenging to infer seasonality or recurring patterns just from this data alone. However, one can notice patterns that could suggest daily fluctuations in the exchange rates. Furthermore, for a deep understanding of the seasonality, we could potentially use a larger dataset that covers a longer period.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    Outliers in this context would be values that deviate significantly from the overall trend. In this dataset, no profound outliers are observable as most exchange rate values tend to fluctuate within a reasonably close range. However, it should be noted that "outlier" is a relative term and would require a statistical analysis to definitively identify any present in the dataset.

    The details given here are based on the raw dataset provided and do not take into account the possible impact of unexpected events or changes in the economic indicators which can lead to significant shifts in the exchange rates. Such factors could potentially produce outliers.

    Conclusion

    Overall, the trend presents a general increase in the PLN exchange rate over the period analyzed, evident from the start and end points of the range. There seems to be a certain degree of routine fluctuation in the values which could hint at daily patterns or reactions to regular economic activities. As for outliers, the dataset lacks any obvious instances of extraordinary values. However, the exchange rate is a complex statistic and its interpretation should ideally consider a wide array of factors such as trends in other economic indicators, underlying financial mechanisms, geopolitical situation, and more.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    After thoroughly examining the provided dataset, it can clearly be seen that the PLN exchange rate exhibits an upward trajectory from the beginning to the end of the dataset. The rate begins at 0.33484 and ends at a higher value of 0.33923. This upward trend implies that the PLN value has slightly increased over the duration of the data provided.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    As for seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates, it is important to note that without having day of the week or month of the year information, it’s hard to definitively determine any seasonality. With the given hourly data over a few days, we cannot see prominent daily patterns but it does seem that the rates fluctuate up and down around the overall increasing trend line throughout the day. A deeper analysis over longer periods and with more granular data (like weekday/weekend or monthly data) could reveal more about possible seasonality or recurring patterns.

    Outliers Detection

    An outlier in a data set is an observation or point that is distant from other observations/points. The dataset provided here appears to be steady, with the PLN exchange rate gradually increasing. There are slight fluctuations in the rates throughout, which are common in financial time series data, but no obvious outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the trend can be seen. Although, to rigorously determine outliers, a statistical analysis could be more helpful using methods like the Z-Score or the IQR Score.

    Please note that these analyses are based on the raw time series data only; external factors such as market conditions, economic news, geopolitics, etc., are not considered as per the provided instructions.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend

    The data provided represents the PLN exchange rate at different timestamps. By analyzing the data, it appears that the exchange rate has experienced both rises and falls during the given period. It started at 0.33754 at the start of the day and ended at 0.33935. Therefore, overall, there is a slight increase in the exchange rate over the showcased period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    As for seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates, due to the brief nature of the dataset, it is difficult to identify any substantial seasonal trend from the available data. However, the data does suggest some fluctuation in rates at regular intervals, indicating the presence of certain cyclical patterns that may result from specific hours of the day. A thorough and extended analysis would be required to confirm the presence of any definitive recurring patterns.

    Outliers in the Dataset

    The provided dataset does not appear to have any significant outliers as the fluctuations in the exchange rate are within a tight range. The highest exchange rate recorded is 0.33943, and the lowest is 0.3368. The range of the dataset is quite small, indicating no large or unexpected spikes or drops in the exchange rate during the given timeframe.

    Note: The above analyses are based on the provided data alone and have not considered any external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays or the release of key financial news, and reports. An external analysis might alter the findings for patterns, trends and outliers.