Russian Ruble Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the Overall Trend

According to the time-series data given, the exchange rate shows small fluctuations, but generally there is a mild upward trend throughout the given period. The exchange rate starts at around 0.01469 and ends at around 0.0148 with small fluctuations in between. The exchange rates are relatively stable overall, despite the minute increases seen in the rates during the given timeline.

Analysis of Seasonality

With respect to seasonality or recurring patterns, it's difficult to firmly conclude from the provided data due to the small time interval of the given time series data. However, on the outset, there seems to be no obvious recurring patterns within regular intervals in the data set.

Identification of Outliers

In terms of outliers, the given data set does not show any indication of extreme values or substantial variances from the median that could be considered outliers. The exchange rates remain primarily within a tiny margin throughout, suggesting a relatively steady and stable foreign exchange market for this particular currency pair during the observed period.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Comprehensive Analysis of the Dataset

The provided time series data contain information about changes in the Ruble (RUB) exchange rate over time. The analysis focused on understanding the overall trend, identifying potential seasonality or recurrent patterns, and detecting any outliers. The time range covered in the dataset is on 24th April 2024, starting from 00:00:02 up to 23:55:02. Here are the key findings from the analysis:

Understanding the Overall Trend in The Exchange Rate

The data was carefully examined to identify any apparent trend in the ruble exchange rates. The values in the dataset range from 0.01457 (low) to 0.01471 (high). It's observed that there seems to be a slight upward trend in the ruble exchange rate. The value starts with 0.01457 and ends with 0.0147, indicating a mild increment over the time in this specific day.

Identifying Seasonality Or Recurring Patterns in The Changes Of Exchange Rates

By comparing the Ruble exchange rates at similar times, no clear seasonality or recurring pattern was identified in this dataset. It would require data covering a longer period and possibly at different time intervals (such as daily, weekly, or monthly) to decisively conclude on the presence of seasonality.

Detecting Outliers in The Dataset

When assessing the range of Ruble exchange rates in the dataset, no significant outliers were detected. This conclusion is based on the metrics within the current day's data. However, defining an outlier properly would require a more comprehensive benchmark, which includes data from more days or even months.

It's important to note that this limited analysis can offer insights into the behavior of the forex market on this specific day, but it may not capture the full picture of the dynamics of the exchange rates due to external factors such as geopolitical events, central bank policies, and other macro-economic indicators which are beyond the scope of this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the provided dataset for the date 23rd of April 2024, it is observed that the overall trend of the exchange rates (RUB) is relatively stable within the range of 0.01457 to 0.01474. There is a slight upward trend in the early hours between 00:00 and 04:00, followed by a gradual decrease towards midday, and subsequently a more or less constant pattern in the rest of the day. There is a marginal dip in the sequence at the 11:00 mark to 0.01459 but this corrects itself quickly after an hour.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

No strong seasonality or recurring patterns could be observed within the scope of the given 24-hour data. The currency seems to be reasonably stable. Although, a complete seasonal pattern couldn't be established with the given single day data as currency exchange rate trends often require a series of data over several days, weeks or months. For a more comprehensive understanding, a larger dataset spanning over a longer timeframe like months or years is required.

Outliers

There doesn't appear to be any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs sharply from what would be expected based on the overall trend. However, two minor reductions in the exchange rate may be identified - one around 11:00 down to 0.01459, and a marginal decrease at 20:20 down to 0.01456. These are minor fluctuations and not severe deviations from the stable trend.

In conclusion, based on the data from the given day's time series, no significant upward or downward trends or outliers are observed for this particular day. The exchange rate depicts no significant volatility and remains stable for most part of the day.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the detailed dataset provided, it is observed that the overall exchange rate of RUB has slightly increased during this period. The rate started at 0.01462 and ended at 0.01472 which shows an upward trend which indicates that over this specific timeline, there was a gradual increase in the value of RUB.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Making a potent observation from the dataset, the exchange rate appears relatively stable with minor fluctuations and doesn't showcase a visible daily or weekly seasonality. Since we have a dataset of just a single day, it would require a longer timeline for a comprehensive seasonality analysis. For identifying weekly or monthly patterns, data spread over multiple weeks or months would be more valuable.

3. Outliers and Unexpected Exchange Rate Variations

In terms of any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly, there are a few notable times. At timestamp '2024-04-22 11:20:02', there's a sharp increase from 0.01462 to 0.01474, and it reaches a maximum of 0.01475 at '2024-04-22 11:30:03'. This could likely be due to certain market events or notable trading activity during those times. After the steep increase, the market seems to stabilize again, and by timestamp '2024-04-22 13:35:03', it returns to the 0.01472 mark and then remains around this mark for the rest of the day.

In conclusion, while there is a slight overall increase in the exchange rate of RUB during this period, the rate appears relatively stable with minor fluctuations and doesn't show clear seasonality given the dataset duration. A few outliers were noted and could indicate particular events or activities at those timestamps.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

On analyzing the provided timestamped exchange rates from 2024-03-22 to 2024-04-19, it appears that there are minor fluctuations, but the overall rate seems relatively stable. The rate started at 0.01468 on 2024-03-22, and it displayed a very slight upward trend initially, peaking at 0.01476 on 2024-03-25, and then saw a slight decline to 0.0146 by 2024-04-10. After this, they slightly increased reaching 0.01484 on 2024-04-12. Finally, they declined back down to almost exactly where they started, at 0.01463 by 2024-04-19. Therefore, there is no significant long-term increase or decrease trend captured by this data although there were small day-to-day fluctuations.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Looking for recurring patterns or seasonality in the data set, it was hard to determine any certain daily pattern given the irregular comparison points provided in the timestamp. Rates fluctuate throughout the day but end up relatively flat from one day to the next with minor increments and decrements. Furthermore, from the available dataset, there does not seem to be any obvious weekly patterns either in the exchange rates. Please note, a larger dataset might give more insights into this and improve the pattern analysis.

Outliers Analysis

The dataset that features values out of the general trend are considered as outliers. In the provided dataset, there're no apparent outliers. All values are in a reasonable range, given the opening and closing values, and considering the fluctuations in-between. There is a noticable jump from 0.01459 on 2024-04-10 06:00:02 to 0.01469 on 2024-04-10 08:00:03 and continues to rise till it reach 0.01474 on 2024-04-10 12:00:03. This could be due to several factors within the market, including specific buying/selling activities or economic updates but again this is not a significant inconsistency.

Note: This analysis is based on the given dataset and does not account for any external factors such as events in the real-world economy, market opening/closing hours, or weekends/holidays. A good time-series analysis usually involves such factors for a precise understanding of the trends and patterns - consider this in any further, in-depth analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

From the given dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates from 15th April 2024 to 19th April 2024 can be classified as slightly decreasing. The exchange rates started from 0.01473 and ended at 0.01463 showing a slight decrease over the period of five days. However, it's essential to note the fluctuation range within these boundaries, it goes up to the maximum of 0.01482 and down to the minimum of 0.0146.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

There seems to be some amount of repetitiveness in the value changes, but a concrete pattern or seasonality is hard to determine without a more extended period of observation or some context about what might influence the change in numbers. However, it is observed that the fluctuations are mostly noticeable during particular hours, potentially indicating some pattern related to market activities. A more detailed or longer dataset could potentially assist in finding a more precise pattern.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

In the entire dataset, there are no significant outliers. The exchange rate seems to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, and there are no instances where the exchange rate differs substantially from what would be expected based on the observed trend. Nonetheless, the instance where the exchange rate drops to 0.0146 from 0.01463 and goes up to 0.01482 from 0.0148 can be something to look into as it shows the most significant leap within the provided timeframe, but still not large enough to be classified as an outlier.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Trend of Exchange Rates

From the timestamps provided, the overall trend of the ruble (RUB) exchange rate shows slight fluctuations but generally remains stable. The fluctuations range between 0.01458 and 0.01465 throughout the day. It's worth noticing that even the highest and lowest exchange rates are very close to each other, confirming the stability of the exchange rates for this particular day.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Based on the dataset provided, there are no notable seasonal patterns or recurring trends identifiable. The slight fluctuations in the rates don't appear to align with any ascertainable pattern within the timescale of a single day. Although, extending the data to a broader timescale might bring seasonal multiple-days, weekly, or monthly patterns to light if any exist.

Identification of Outliers

There doesn't seem to be any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the overall trend within the dataset. All the values provided fall within a very narrow range (0.01458 to 0.01465), showing no significant variance.

It's important to keep in mind that due to the scope of the dataset - a single day - we don't have enough data to produce a detailed analysis or observe long-term trends or outliers.

Final Remarks

Given the short timeframe (24 hours) and the very small range within the exchange rate fluctuations, any meaningful analysis would require a larger dataset, ideally spanning multiple weeks or months.

This would allow us to see longer-term trends, identify potential seasonal changes, and spot any significant outliers in line with global news or events. Even though this analysis doesn't consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, it's important to remember that such factors may impact exchange rates in both short and long terms.