Libyan Dinar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Based on the data provided, the following analysis and observations can be made:

    1) Overall Trend of Exchange Rates:

    Observing the data, the overall trend of exchange rates seems to be relatively stable. However, there were some periods of minor increases and decreases, but these fluctuations weren't large enough to indicate a definite upward or downward trend over the period shown. These rates start off at approximately 0.28119 at the first timestamp and end at approximately 0.28056 at the final time stamp. If we consider these two points, there is a slight decrease in the LYD exchange rate during the period shown.

    2) Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it's challenging to decipher clear patterns from a single day's worth of data. However, there was slight variability in the rates during different times of the day; there were noticeable upticks around 1:35:02, 2:15:01, and 11:25:03. Likewise, there were noticeable decreases in rates around 7:35:03 and 20:05:02. However, without additional data, it remains uncertain whether these patterns consistently recur over longer periods.

    3) Identification of Outliers:

    While the given dataset reflects a mostly stable exchange rate with slight fluctuations, there are a few potential outliers. Notably, there was a fairly steep drop in the LYD exchange rate at the 20:05:02 timestamp. Here, the rate dropped noticeably from 0.2809 to 0.28048, the largest single-time decrease in this dataset. Furthermore, the exchange rate at 2:15:01 increased significantly from 0.28121 to 0.28142, which is also an outlier in this data set.

    Please consider these observations as a general trend analysis based on the provided data. A more detailed and accurate trend, seasonality, and outlier analysis would require a larger and more comprehensive dataset spanning across a longer timeline.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates.

    From your dataset, it appears that the exchange rate started at 0.27986 and ended at 0.28113. This suggests a subtle increase in the exchange rate throughout this timeframe. Within the period, the minimum value was around 0.27986, and the maximum value hit at around 0.28156. Thus the range of movement in the data set is relatively narrow, which gives a hint of some degree of stability. However, it is also worth noting that whilst the context of the dataset is not provided, the lack of a non-linear trend could suggest further external factor influence.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the change of exchange rates.

    Based on the data given, discerning any seasonality or recurring patterns is challenging due to the lack of a longer-term dataset to analyze - the data provided only spans a single day. However, a few subtle recurring patterns are observable. The exchange rate appears slightly more volatile during the period from around 06:15 to 07:05, and again from approximately 12:10 to 12:50. More data would be required to confirm if these patterns indeed represent intrinsic daily volatility or simply random fluctuations.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

    In terms of outliers, given the narrow range of movement in the data set, there were limited extreme values. Two potential outliers could be noticed at around 06:20 (with a value of 0.28103), and 14:40 (with a value of 0.28142), representing the two highest peaks. However, these 'outliers' may well be within the expected deviation of the exchange rate and thus might not be true outliers. It would be necessary to delve deeper into the dataset to confirm this and establish a robust statistical understanding.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of Lyd Exchange Rate

    Before delving into the analysis, it's important to understand the context. This dataset encompasses approximately a full day of exchange rate data with the LYD currency. The dataset provides an observation of the exchange rate practically every 5-10 minutes over this time period.

    Understanding the overall trend

    When examining the full dataset, there appears to be a slight but consistent upward trend in the LYD exchange rate during the first half of the day until 09:50 where the value of LYD reaches its peak at 0.27981. The LYD exchange rate then sees a decrease in value, which continues throughout the remainder of the dataset, reaching its lowest point at 0.27866 at 14:30 before experiencing minor fluctuations to close the day roughly at around 0.27925.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    There seems to be a daily trend where the LYD value increases in the morning hours, hits a peak around the mid-morning, and begins to decrease throughout the afternoon and evening. It can be observed that between the timestamps 08:00-09:30, there is a steady rise in the LYD exchange rate. Also, between 13:45-16:15 we see a regular pattern where the exchange rate seems to experience slight variations before ultimately decreasing. This could be considered as a regular behavior during those specific periods of the day. However, due to the nature of the data only covering a full day, it is not conclusive if this is formally a pattern or a repeated behavior over multiple days/weeks.

    Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

    There doesn't appear to be any large outliers within this dataset where the value differs significantly from the expected trend. Most values remain relatively close to the overall trend. However, between 09:35 and 09:55, a rapid drop appears in the data from 0.27972 to 0.27894, which is significantly faster than other moments. The biggest jump is in the timestamp between 20:05 and 20:10, where the exchange rate rapidly increases from 0.27879 to 0.27929.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Trend Analysis

    The LYD exchange rate in the dataset seems to fluctuate over time rather than following a strict increasing or decreasing trend. It begins with a value of around 0.27842 at 2024-01-26 02:00:02 and ends at 0.27892 at 2024-02-23 14:00:01. It indicates a more or less stable period for the data at hand, with slight periodic fluctuations.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    The dataset doesn't have a cycle that repeats at a yearly level due to its short span. However, we can observe some hourly patterns. It seems that there is slight volatility during different hours, but it is not significant enough to be recognized as a clear, recurring pattern or a seasonal trend.

    Outliers Detection

    Without the context of what is usual or expected variation in LYD exchange rates, it is hard to definitively identify outliers. However, most of the rates in the data provided hover around the 0.277 - 0.280 range. Values significantly outside of this range (if present in more data) could be considered outliers, depending on the common fluctuations of LYD.

    In conclusion, the given dataset shows a fluctuating but relatively stable period for LYD exchange rates. No clear trend or specific pattern is observed amongst the data, and without additional context, outliers cannot be accurately identified.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of Lyd Exchange Rates

    The data provided contains information about the LYD exchange rates at several timestamps from 19-02-2024 to 23-02-2024. Below follows a comprehensive analysis based on the likely goals defined.

    1. Trend Analysis

    Overall, LYD exchange rates appear to exhibit a very slight increasing trend over this period. The exchange rate initially started at a value of 0.27793 and ended at 0.27892. Although there observed some minute fluctuations in between, no clear trend of a severe increase or decrease can be observed within this period. Rather, the rates appear somewhat consistent, with a minor upward curve.

    2. Seasonality and Pattern Identification

    In terms of seasonality or other recurring patterns, this data does not provide a clear pattern within the given span. As this metadata only covers a period of 5 days, it might not be substantial to draw any significant conclusions on meaningful seasonality or long-term patterns. Furthermore, the periods between data points are not uniform, making it rather challenging to accurately identify any recurring patterns in terms of fixed times of the day, or particular days of the week.

    3. Observation of Outliers

    Considering the time frame and stability of the rates, there don't appear to be any notable outliers. The LYD exchange rates generally fluctuate within a very narrow range, hence all changes seem to be minor and none seems to deviate significantly from the overall trend. Therefore, no significant outliers can be identified from this given dataset.

    In summary, within the given five-day period from 19-02-2024 to 23-02-2024, LYD exchange rates showed a slight increase, with no significant outliers or noticeable repeating patterns.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    After a thorough analysis of the timestamps and corresponding LYD exchange rates provided, it can be observed that the general trend over the period shown is moderately fluctuating. The exchange rate started at 0.27824 and ended at 0.27895, indicating a slight increase over time. However, it is crucial to note that between these points, the rate fluctuated, rising and falling at different times fashion.

    Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the data in the specified duration, it is rather challenging to pinpoint any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. The changes in the LYD exchange rate appear to be random and not related to the time of the day. No discernible repetitive peaks or troughs can be identified in the data provided to suggest any form of seasonality.

    Outliers in the Data

    From a brief overview of the data, there doesn't seem to be any significant outliers. There were no instances where the exchange rate differed significantly from what would be expected based on the trend. Most of the fluctuations in the exchange rate were subtle and didn't fall far from the overall trend. However, it should be noted that without a formal outlier detection technique such as z-score or IQR method, it is not wholly accurate to conclude the absence of outliers.

    Additional Information

    • It should be noted that these findings are purely based on the presented data and do not take into account any external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Such factors could potentially explain the fluctuations in the exchange rate.
    • Since we are not considering these external factors for this analysis, our interpretation is solely based on the trends and patterns found in the data provided. Therefore, it may not fully reflect the complexity of the LYD exchange rate dynamics.
    • No forecasts for future rates have been made as part of this analysis.

    Conclusion

    The LYD exchange rate over the specified period exhibits a slight increase with minor fluctuations. No clear seasonality or recurring patterns were identified, and no significant outliers were detected. This analysis does not consider external factors and does not provide any forecasts for future rates.