Czech Koruna Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Based on the dataset provided, the overall trend of CZK exchange rates displays a decrease. The value starts at 0.05816, reaches the lowest point at 0.05784, and ends at 0.05789. While there are minor fluctuations, the general pattern indicates a downward trend. Although the change is not massive, even the slightest difference in exchange rates could result in significant impacts when dealing with large transactions.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    When observing the data for any seasonality or recurring patterns, it appears that the dataset does not provide a discernible pattern within 24-hour periods. The values do not exhibit consistent peaks and valleys that would hint at a daily cycle. However, this could be due to the single day snapshot of the data provided. Analysis of long-term time series data (weekly, monthly, annually) can often expose recurring seasonal patterns in forex markets. Nonetheless, it's important to note that exchange rate markets frequently do not follow strict cyclical patterns due to their complex nature and susceptibility to a wide range of influencing factors.

    3. Noting Outliers or Significant Exceptions

    By scanning through the dataset, no extreme outliers are observed. Most of the exchange rate values are closely clustered around the value of 0.058. This lack of outliers suggests a stable day with no significant market news or unexpected economic events impacting the CZK exchange rate. However, it's worth noting that the identification of outliers would benefit from statistical measures such a standard deviations which require more robust analyses.

    In conclusion, the movement of CZK exchange rate for the day encapsulated by this dataset shows a slight decrease, no clear daily pattern, and possesses no apparent outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. The Overall Trend of The Exchange Rates

    From analyzing this dataset, the overall trend of the CZK exchange rates fluctuates within a narrow range from 0.05787 to 0.05819. There's no clear pattern of a general increase or decrease observable from the given data. Thus, the rates can be considered stable over the given period.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The dataset seems to reflect an intraday cycle, where seemingly, no human-induced events (like markets opening/closing, weekends/holidays, or the release of financial news and reports) are factored in. However, given the narrow range of data points, it's hard to discern a concrete pattern or clear 'seasonality' that would help predict future movements in the exchange rate.

    3. Identifying Any Outliers

    Given that the exchange rates fluctuate within a narrow band range, there does not appear to be any outlier within the provided data. There's no instance where the exchange rate differs significantly from the typical range that would suggest an aberration or anomaly.

    In conclusion, the dataset provides a snapshot of a stable exchange rate for CZK, with minor fluctuations, within a specific range. There doesn't seem to be any blatant outliers, thus denoting the absence of any dramatic event impacting the currency over this timeframe. The presence of any seasonality or recurring patterns are also not strongly evident from the provided dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Over the given time period, the exchange rates for CZK appear to be slightly fluctuating but overall, relatively stable. The exchange rate has had minor changes within a very tight window of approximately 0.05773 to 0.05786. While there are slight monotonic increases and decreases the changes are not drastic and the overall trend seems to be a relatively constant.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Given the provided data and the nature of the dataset, it’s challenging to identify any strong seasonality or recurring patterns. This dataset covers a single day and while there may be patterns within that day, it's important to analyse multiple days, particularly over an entire year to be able to confidently establish any significant seasonality trends.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    There don't appear to be any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the overall trend. The rates stayed within a very close range, and there don’t appear to be any extreme fluctuations or any specific instances that have deviated from the expected range within this dataset. However, a more sophisticated statistical analysis may uncover subtler outliers that visually are not apparent.

    Please note, to accurately accomplish the objectives, all potential influential factors needs to be considered such as political events, economic indicators, etc., and also a longer timespan of data would provide a more accurate representation of the exchange rate dynamics.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates.

    Upon analyzing the data, it is noticeable that the exchange rates have a slight overall downward trend within the provided timeframe. This means that the exchange rate slightly depreciated over time. We started from approximately 0.059 and ended near 0.057. Therefore, the exchange rate decreased in value over the period shown in the data.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates.

    Identifying seasonality in time series data requires the investigation of regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year. However, the data set provided does not seem to show strong evidence of seasonality. The fluctuation rates seem to be short-term and irregular, indicating that external or random factors may have a significant influence on the changes. But without additional data - especially when considering a longer time frame - it would be challenging to establish a clear pattern of seasonality or recurring patterns confidently.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

    From a general overview of the provided data, there are a few points where significant dips or peaks occurred in the exchange rate values. Examples are the times at '2024-02-08 08:00:04' when the value dropped to around 0.05775 and at '2024-02-20 10:00:02' when the value spiked to approximately 0.05765. However, these instances can be considered normal fluctuations in a market exchange rate and not extreme outliers. Therefore, without a clear trend or seasonality detected, it is difficult to conclusively identify outliers based solely on the provided data.

Summary of Yesterday

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    Comprehensive Analysis of Czk Exchange Rates

    From the given data, it's observable that the time frame provided begins from 2024-02-19 01:00:02 and ends at 2024-02-23 14:00:01. This covers roughly a 5-day period. Below is a detailed analysis that corresponds to your requirements.

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The trend over this small period seems to be relatively stable, with slight fluctuations apparent. The exchange rate started at 0.05712 at the earliest timestamp and ended at 0.05767 near the last timestamp. Although there are instances of increase and decrease, the overall trend within this 5-day period doesn’t appear to suggest a strong directional movement either in terms of a sharp increase or a steep fall.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    In this relatively short-time period, no clear pattern of daily seasonality or recurrence is distinctly visible. However, there seems to be a bit of fluctuation around the 0.05706 - 0.05710 region. Depending on the wider context and with a longer time series, it might be possible to identify clearer patterns that highlight recurring patterns or seasonality.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differ significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    From a superficial look at the provided data, there does not appear to be any drastic swings or outliers; the index fluctuates mildly within a tight bracket. However, a significant shift occurs in the third to fourth days when the exchange rate looks to have increased slightly to reach up to 0.0578. Additionally, there is a small dip in the exchange rate between 0.05777 to 0.05761 in around the fifth day but quickly recovers. These deviations, while notable, are not extreme outliers and lie within an acceptable range of variance.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The data provided shows a fairly stable yet slightly increasing trend in the CZK exchange rate over the given period. The starting exchange rate of 0.05753 increases very slightly to 0.05763, which represents only a slight increase but does indicate a slight upward trend nevertheless. There doesn't seem to be a significant amount of volatility, which shows that the exchange rate remained rather stable throughout the time period observed.

    2. Identifying Recurring Pattern or Seasonality

    It's quite challenging to identify seasonality in the data provided as it only covers one day. However, a slight increase during the period from 06:05:02 to 10:20:03 can be seen, but it's might not be a conclusive pattern as it only occurs once within the given data.

    3. Noting Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Upon examination of the data, no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differed drastically from the general trend were found. The range of the data lies between 0.05749 and 0.0577, which indicates a stable trend in the pair's exchange rates with no major spikes or drops.

    Please note that this analysis is based solely on the data set provided and does not consider any external economic factors or events that may have influenced currency rates during that day or would do in the future.