Czech Koruna Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

To evaluate this data, it would be necessary to observe the changes in the CZK exchange rate over time. Here is a comprehensive analysis based on the dataset:

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the dataset, the CZK exchange rate experiences a subtle but overall upward trend from 0.05807 at the beginning of the period to 0.05823 at the end. Note that the rate does fluctuate within a relatively tight range, meaning the overall increase is marginal.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The dataset does not provide enough information to identify a clear annual or seasonal pattern in exchange rates. The observed data span across different hours within a single day, which doesn't provide a broad enough spectrum to ascertain seasonal changes. However, intraday patterns might be identified if data for more trading days are observed. In this case, there's no clear intra-day pattern as the exchange rates fluctuate within a very tight range.

Outliers Assessment

Closely observing the figures, the dataset does not appear to contain any significant outliers. The exchange rate maintains a consistent range with minor fluctuations throughout the duration, and there's no single instance where it differs substantially from the others. However, to perform a robust outlier analysis, statistical tools such as the Z-score or the IQR method could be more fruitful as they ensure objectivity.

In conclusion, based on the data available, the CZK exchange rate seems to uphold a slight upward trend, within a day, without major fluctuations. The rate seems to exhibit stability with minor variations. However, the dataset lacks data points that would allow a solid evaluation of seasonality and outlier detection. More extensive data covering different days, weeks, months could offer a better grasp of recurring patterns and anomalies.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview and Overall Trend

The exchange rates provided in the dataset range from around 0.05788 to 0.05813, suggesting minor fluctuations over time. There is a very gradual upward trend from the start to the end of the dataset. That means, the exchange rate has slightly appreciated in the period under review. On 24th-April-2024, the exchange rate starts at 0.05803 and ends at 0.05807, with some fluctuations in between.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

From the dataset, it is challenging to decisively point out any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. However, there seem to be some minor incremental movements during certain periods, such as from 07:40:03 to 08:05:03 where there is a noticeable rise from 0.05805 to 0.05811 respectively. This could be a pattern in the dataset, but without more extensive data covering more days or weeks, this would require further exploration to confirm.

Outliers Identification

As for outliers, given the small range of data provided, nothing significantly deviates from the overall fluctuations observed. The exchange rates remain within the range of 0.05788 to 0.05813 throughout this period. However, the value at the timestamp 2024-04-24 03:50:02 falls to 0.05788 which is the lowest in this data, but still within the slight overall fluctuation limits of the dataset.

It is also important to note that the analysis is done in a way that specific events such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, release of key financial news and reports are not put into considerations. Furthermore, without any requirement of future forecasting, this analysis is purely based on the historical dataset provided.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Trend

The dataset shows the fluctuations in the exchange rate of CZK over time. Throughout the dataset, the rate fluctuates between 0 the 0.05809 from its initial exchange rate of 0.05775. An analysis of the overall trend in the exchange rate shows that there is a slight positive trend, the exchange rate slowly increases over the set time period. There are periods of relative stability where the exchange rate maintains consistency but it is also followed by some jumps.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

We didn't identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in this dataset. The dataset does not cover a long enough time period to define any seasonal patterns. And since the frequency of the measurements varies (not periodic - hourly or every half an hour), it is challenging to identify recurring patterns. We need a longer period of data to determine if seasonal patterns or periodic fluctuations exist.

Outliers in the Dataset

The dataset does not seem to have significant outliers. An 'outlier' in this context would be a rate change that is significantly different from the changes around it. The changes in the exchange rate all appear to be relatively uniform, with the exception of some marginal hikes. The largest hikes or falls could possibly be considered as outliers. But without a better knowledge of what caused these changes (such as an external economic event), it's difficult to label them definitively as outliers.

In summary, the provided time-series dataset exhibits a slight increasing trend over the observed period. No prominent seasonality elements or recurring patterns were observed, and while some significant changes occurred, there seem to be no distinct outlier instances.

Summary of Last Month

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

The overall trend depicted in the data suggests a slight decrease in the exchange rate of CZK over the timestamp provided. The exchange rate started around 0.058 and ended after a downward trend at approximately 0.05775. Specifically, while the dataset had minute fluctuations in between, the broad trend was slightly downward.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given that the timestamps encompass an approximate day's worth of data, identification of a seasonal or recurring pattern may be challenging. However, by scrutinizing the dataset within different time frames, we can suggest there are minor fluctuations in the exchange rate that might indicate intraday volatility due to activities within currency markets. Therefore, we would need longer time-series data to state whether there are periodic or seasonal patterns.

Outliers

Outliers in time-series data are typically significant variations in the rate that cannot be explained by the common dynamic of the data. From inspecting the timestamps and rate value, we can see a consistent oscillation between rates in the range of 0.057 to 0.058. There aren't any notable spikes or plummets that stand out as strong outliers, the data looks reasonably clean and consistent.

Please note: this analysis purely focuses on the data at hand, without accounting for any external context or events.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

From the data provided, the overall trend of the CZK exchange rate between 2024-03-22 and 2024-04-19 displays minor fluctuations but seems to be relatively stable. There is a minor decline in the exchange rate from a high of 0.05832 on 2024-03-26 to a low of 0.05751 on 2024-04-02. However, the rate recovers and fluctuates around the 0.058 range till the end of the data series. There is no substantial increase or decrease overall during this time period.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns Analysis

Looking at the exchange rate changes over different time slices, there doesn't appear to be a detectable seasonality or recurring pattern within the dataset. The minor oscillations seem to be more sporadic than cyclical. In the absence of additional data or context, it's reasonable to say that the exchange rate changes are likely influenced by a variety of unpredictable or less predictable factors.

3. Outliers Analysis

In our dataset, an outlier would be a significant change in the exchange rate in a short period of time compared to the relatively stable overall trend. Throughout the dataset the daily variations in the exchange rates are generally minor with no tremendous upswings or downturns. One notable instance could be the drop from 0.05832 on 2024-03-26 to 0.05751 on 2024-04-02. However, this deviation, while marginally larger than others, isn't significantly unusual when observing the entire data set.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1.

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The dataset comprises of timestamped exchange rate data points in CZK. We can observe a fluctuation between 0.05767 and 0.05835 in the exchange rate during the given period.

Initially, the exchange rate started at 0.05783 and reached its lowest point of 0.05767 on 2024-04-15. From here, there was a gradual increase in the rate, hitting the highest point of 0.05835 on 2024-04-16. Post that, there was a slight decrease observed, where the rate eventually fluctuated in the range of 0.05801 to 0.05832 until 2024-04-17.

Following this, the trend again started to decrease continuously, reaching a new low of 0.05796 on 2024-04-18. Towards the end, the exchange rate sees a small increase again and stabilizes around 0.05797 - 0.05803 by 2024-04-19.

Summarily, this dataset showcases a slightly volatile market situation. In such a somewhat unstable scenario, it is safe to say that exchange rate trends cannot be firmly stated as completely rising or falling.

2.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Seasonality is a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year or over a specific timeframe. In the given dataset, it is difficult to identify any strict seasonality or recurring patterns due to the short length of the dataset covering only five days.

However, it would require a more extended dataset, typically covering multiple seasons or periods, to make a definitive statement about seasonality or recurrent patterns.

3.

Noting any Outliers

An outlier is a data point that differs significantly from other similar observations. In the provided dataset, considering the overall trend, it can be noted that the significant drop in the exchange rate of 0.05767 (2024-04-15 09:00:03) can be considered an outlier.

Another point that deviates considerably from other observations is the high exchange rate of 0.05835 (2024-04-16 22:00:02) which is the maximum value in this dataset.

These two instances might indicate the presence of outliers resulting from possible significant occurrences or errors. However, it must be considered that the identification of outliers can be subjective, and these unusual data points can provide valuable information about the volatility of the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Based on the provided exchange rate data for the Czech Crown (CZK) timestamped every 5 minutes, here is the comprehensive analysis:

Understanding the Overall Trend

The overall trend of the exchange rates over this period appears to be rather stable, with only slight fluctuations observed. The CZK exchange rate started at a value of 0.05793 units and ended at 0.05802 units. This minimal increase indicates there is not a pronounced upward or downward trend or it could be said, the exchange rate trend tends to be stationary within this given dataset.

Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Based on the analysis of the provided dataset, there doesn't seem to be any noticeable seasonality or recurring patterns. The data provided isn't over a long enough period to definitively identify yearly or monthly seasonal changes. Also, within the given period of hourly, or daily, the fluctuations in the value appear to be somewhat random, indicating a lack of any evident cyclical pattern in the exchange rates within this period.

Noting Any Outliers

Several values stand out as they differ from the previous and following values by more than the usual variance. One clear outlier is the value 0.05809. Most of the higher peaks are around 0.05807 to 0.05809, but these deviate slightly more compared to the surrounding values. However, these minor deviations don't appear to significantly disrupt the overall pattern and trend of the exchange rate. It should be noted that such minor deviations are not uncommon in financial time series due to numerous factors like sudden buying/selling pressure, speculative trading, or algorithm trades.

Conculsion

In conclusion, the CZK exchange rates over the given period are quite stable with only minor fluctuations. There doesn't appear to be a recurring or seasonal pattern on the basis of the given data. The outliers identified also didn't significantly deviate from the average rates. However, a more precise analysis might demand a larger and expanded dataset encompassing longer periods of observation.

Please note that this analysis is strictly based on the supplied data and doesn't consider external factors like financial news, geopolitical developments, market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays which might have substantial impacts on the exchange rates.