Kyat Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Upon looking at the Data, it's evident that the MMK Exchange Rate remained absolutely stable throughout the dataset. The value was constant at 0.00065. Therefore, we can conclude that there was no increasing or decreasing trend over the period.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Considering the stable nature of the data where the exchange rate remained constant at 0.00065, there are no noticeable seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. This implies that the rate was unaffected by the time of day and stayed consistent throughout.

3. Outliers in The Exchange Rates

As the exchange rate remained steady at 0.00065 for the entire time period indicated in data, it means that no significant outliers exist within this dataset. An outlier would be indicative of a significant shift away from the stable rate of 0.00065, which was not observed here.

In short, the analysis of data does not bring out any significant fluctuations, trends, or abnormalities. The constant nature of the exchange rate throughout the dataset is the most prominent observation.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The data displays a remarkably stable exchange rate for the MMK across the entire time frame examined, with the majority of the timestamps reflecting an exchange rate of 0.00065. This stability could be indicative of a strong market or currency with little fluctuation.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the data provided, there isn't any noticeable or profound seasonality or recurring pattern. The exchange rate remains relatively stable and static through the entire interval. Without more detailed exchange rate variations or longer timeframe, it's challenging to discern any daily or monthly patterns in the data set. It is important to note though, a slight increase in the exchange rate at the timestamp '2024-04-24 05:50:02' and it lasts till '2024-04-24 06:20:02'. It is worth investigating further.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

With a majority of the exchange rates at 0.00065, any deviations from this could be considered as outliers. Notably, the rate of 0.00066 that appears twice in the dataset - specifically at the timestamps '2024-04-24 05:50:02' and '2024-04-24 05:55:02' and from '2024-04-24 06:20:02' to '2024-04-24 06:50:02' can be considered as outliers within this dataset. However, as this only represents a minor deviation from the stability of 0.00065, it may not be of significance unless similar patterns are detected over a lengthier period.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

From the raw data presented, we observe that the timestamp and the exchange rate MMK remain constant throughout every timestamp observation for the date 2024-04-23. The MMK value is 0.00065 at every given time point. This pattern applies consistently across all timestamp entries. While this behavior is unusual for exchange rates, which typically fluctuate to some extent due to various economic factors and market conditions, this is what the data suggests for the date presented.

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Based on the dataset provided, the MMK exchange rate exhibits a constant trend over the given period. There is no rise or fall, and the rate shows total stability at 0.00065.

Identifying any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Since the MMK exchange rate does not change over time in the dataset provided, we cannot observe any seasonality or recurring patterns in these rates. The MMK value remains constant through all hours of the day and demonstrates no hourly, daily, or other recurring fluctuations.

Noting any Outliers

Again, given the consistency of the MMK value across all timestamps in the dataset, no outliers were found. Typically, an outlier would be a sudden significant surge or drop in the exchange rate compared to the usual trend or pattern. However, as there is no variation in the rates in this dataset, it's impossible to identify any such anomalies.

In conclusion, the dataset for 2024-04-23 shows an unchanging MMK exchange rate throughout the 24-hour period. This level of stability is highly unusual for exchange rates, which tend to exhibit some degree of variation and fluctuation. Please note that external factors like market conditions, political stability, economic news, and more usually affect the exchange rates. However, per your instructions, these have not been taken into account in this analysis.

Summary of Last Month

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Analysis of MMK Exchange Rate

The dataset provided shows the MMK exchange rate over a period of time. An exchange rate refers to the value of one currency for the purpose of conversion to another. In this case, it's the MMK (Myanma Kyat).

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Examining the data, the value of the MMK exchange rate remains constant at 0.00065 over the entire period. At each recorded timestamp, from 2024-04-22 00:00:02 to 2024-04-22 23:55:02, the exchange rate does not show any variation. This behaviour implies stability in the exchange rate during this particular timeframe. There is neither an increasing nor decreasing trend in the data provided.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

When it comes to identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns, it's crucial to examine the exchange rates at regular intervals over a more extended period. However, given the dataset only spans a single day and the exchange rate remains constant during this entire duration, we do not observe any noticeable recurring patterns or seasonality in this dataset.

3. Outliers Detection

An outlier in a dataset is a value which is significantly higher or lower compared to other observed values. It can often indicate a mistake in data collection or unique events. Given the exchange rate in this dataset remained consistent at 0.00065 without any variation, there are no apparent outliers present.

In conclusion, this dataset shows a highly stable exchange rate for MMK on the given date. There was no change in the exchange rate value throughout the time series data. No trends, seasonal patterns, or outliers were detected in this analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the data and breaking it down, this dataset represents the exchange rates (MMK) at different timestamps. However, from a high level perspective, it does not seem to show any noticeable trend or seasonality. The trend remains stable over the dataset period without any clear indication of an increase or a decrease.

Analysis of the Overall Trend

The overall trend of the exchange rates is relatively stable throughout the period. The MMK exchange rate varies from 0.00064 to 0.00066, with a slight increase observed on 2024-04-12. However, this increase remained consistent till the end of the dataset, indicating a stable trend with minimal changes.

Seasonality Analysis

At this dataset level, it is hard to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the MMK exchange rate changes. The dataset would require data over a relatively long time - at least a few years - to identify any possible seasonal trends. Therefore, any recurring patterns on this data within seven weeks cannot be declared as “seasonality.”

Outliers

New rate highs of 0.00066 MMK, which were first observed on 2024-04-12 extending till the data end can be indicated as an outlier in this dataset. These instances differ slightly from the stable trend observed throughout the dataset. However, given the small dataset size and low variability, it would be prerequisite to label this point as an "outlier".

It is important to note that this analysis is purely data-driven, based on the given dataset. It does not incorporate external factors like market hours, day of the week, public holidays, or financial news which could dramatically impact exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Based on the provided dataset, the overall exchange rate of MMK remains fairly stable throughout the period. The majority of exchange rates are oscillating between 0.00065 and 0.00066. There are no prominent rises or drops within the dataset, showing a rather stable trend. It demonstrates that during this period, the MMK exchange rate has not seen substantial volatility and remains more or less consistent.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, at first glance, the dataset does not seem to indicate any definite cyclic pattern or seasonality in the exchange rate fluctuation. The rates do not show a consistent pattern of changing at specific times. Instead, it remains relatively constant between 0.00065 and 0.00066, with a few minor changes in-between. More detailed analysis methods such as time-series decomposition might be required for a more precise insight. However, without considering any external factors as per the requirements, no discernible seasonality or recurring patterns are detectable using this raw data.

Outliers

The dataset indicates a fair consistency in the exchange rates between the values of 0.00065 and 0.00066. Therefore, any values that significantly deviate from these might be considered outliers. However, within the provided dataset, no such outliers are spotted. The exchange rate seems to be relatively stable without instances of drastic drops or increases, indicating sound economic stability during this period.

In conclusion, this period's exchange rate appears to be fairly stable without any discernible seasonal patterns or significant outliers. This helps to suggest a certain level of economic steadiness. However, continual monitoring would be necessary to account for any potential economic shifts that might affect exchange rates in the future. For a more comprehensive and detailed analysis, other factors might also need to be considered, such as market trends, geopolitical stability, and overall economic health.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the exchange rates seems to be fairly stable. The rates have remained consistent at 0.00065 for a large part of the provided dataset. This steady rate indicates a stable market environment during this timeframe.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

With regard to seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not present any evident pattern. The rates remain consistent at 0.00065 for most of the timestamps, without presenting any identifiable periods of increases or decreases, which would indicate seasonality or a recurring pattern.

Outliers Detection

Identifying outliers in this dataset is challenging due to the lack of variation in the exchange rates. For a large part of the dataset, the rates remain stable without deviating from the 0.00065 mark. However, there are two instances where the exchange rate increases to 0.00066. These instances could potentially be considered as outliers given their deviation from the general trend. However, as the difference between these rates and the common rate is considerably small, their impact may not significantly affect the overall trend.

Please note that these assessments are based on the data provided and do not take into consideration any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. For a more accurate and comprehensive analysis, consideration of these external factors would be recommended.