Kyat Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Based on the data provided, it can be observed that the exchange rate of MMK has remained constant at 0.00065 for the most part of the period shown. There is no significant increase or decrease in rate, suggesting an overall stability in the exchange rates in this period.

    2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Since the data points provided for time and exchange rates are consistent and unchanged during the entire timeframe, it is challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. Usually, we look for spikes, dips or oscillations to determine repetitive cycles. In this case, due to the constant nature of the MMK exchange rates, no cyclical pattern is detected.

    3. Identification of Outliers

    An outlier in a distribution is a number that is distant from most others in a set of data. In this dataset, there are two instances (2024-02-29 09:00:02, 0.00064 and 2024-02-29 9:10:03, 0.00064) where the exchange rate decreases to 0.00064. These points could be identified as outliers as these are the instances, in this dataset, where the exchange rates differ from the majority.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Based on the dataset provided, the exchange rate for MMK remained consistent at 0.00064 for the first part of the day on 2024-02-28, from the opening timestamp (00:00:02) till around 02:25:02. Subsequently, the exchange rate increased slightly to 0.00065 and consistently remained at this value for the remainder of the day. No significant fluctuation or difference in exchange rates is observed throughout this timestamp. Thus, we can infer that the trend of the exchange rate was generally stable over this period.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

    In time series data, seasonality refers to predictable and recurring fluctuations that occur regularly based on a season-related period. However, based on the dataset provided, the exchange rates do not demonstrate a direct seasonal pattern within the day of observation. This is because neither a regular increase nor decrease is observed in specific sections of the time period. The only significant change is the shift from 0.00064 to 0.00065, and once this change occurred, the rate remained stable thereafter.

    Outliers in the Dataset

    In this context, outliers would be instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the average rate during a particular period. In the given dataset, no outlier can be identified because the exchange rates are notably stable and show only a minor change during the entire period observed. There is no single moment when the exchange rate deviates significantly from the average rate of 0.00064 or 0.00065, respectively.

    Additional Information

    Considering the absence of any specific events and without the need to consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, the exchange rates for this particular day (2024-02-28) exhibited a high level of stability with only a slight increase taking place during the early hours of the day.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Analysis of Time-Series Data

    The provided time-series data represents the exchange rate of MMK over different timestamps, spanning several hours within a day. Specific detailed analysis is as follows:

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon examining the details of the provided data, we can observe that there is no fluctuation in the exchange rate as it remains constant at 0.00064 throughout the entire dataset. Since there is no variation in the data, we can conclude that there is no clear upward or downward trend in the rates. They are incredibly stable for the duration covered by this dataset.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    In financial analysis, seasonality is the presence of variations that occur at specific regular intervals less than a year, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Given our dataset, there is no identifiable seasonality or recurring patterns in the data as the exchange rates are the same at all times, with no fluctuation.

    3. Outliers and Unexpected Changes

    As the dataset lacks any volatility, with the exchange rate constant at 0.00064, it's safe to conclude that no outliers occur in this dataset. An outlier would be indicated by a significant variation or spike in the currency exchange rate, which does not happen according to the dataset provided.

    In conclusion, the dataset suggests that the MMK exchange rate is extremely stable, showing consistent value throughout the analyzed time frame.

    Note:

    This analysis strictly adheres to the information provided in the raw dataset, and does not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Therefore, should there be any anomalies or changes in future datasets, those influences should be considered towards a more comprehensive analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Summary of the Exchange Rates

    The provided data span approximately from January 26th, 2024, to February 23rd, 2024. The MMK exchange rate data seems consistently steady at 0.00064 in this period, except for a few instances around February 13th to February 15th, 2024, where it raised slightly to 0.00065.

    Trend Analysis

    Upon the inspection of the data, there is no evident upward or downward trend in the data. The exchange rate is mostly stable at 0.00064 with only minor fluctuations, specifically around February 13th to February 15th, 2024. This stability might illustrate that the currency is relatively stable during the period reviewed.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The exchange rates are mostly steady in the examined period, which indicates no distinct seasonality or regularly recurring patterns. Any variation seems to be the exception rather than the rule in the dataset, suggesting that no recurrent patterns or significant regular dips or peaks can be deduced from this data.

    Outliers Analysis

    In terms of outliers, the minor increase in the exchange rate around February 13th to February 15th, 2024, could be considered as an outlier because this minor increase breaks the pattern of a stable exchange rate of 0.00064 that persists throughout the period. Nevertheless, the difference is very slight and might not be economically significant.

    Please note that this analysis focuses only on the numerical trends as present in the data. For a more comprehensive and contextual understanding of these currency exchange rates, it would be worth considering other external factors such as economic policies, inflation rates, interest rates, and political stability among other factors. No forecast for future rates is generated as per the instructions.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overview

    The dataset comprises of timestamps and the corresponding MMK (Myanmar Kyat) exchange rates. Upon analyzing the dataset, it is found that the exchange rate remains constant at 0.00064 except for one instance where it increases to 0.00065.

    Trend Analysis

    The exchange rates are consistent, i.e. they seem to be stable over the entire period. With only one minor increase, it seems that the exchange rate maintains an almost horizontal trend without any significant ups and downs.

    Seasonality

    Given the uniformity in the exchange rates over the dataset, there's no clear seasonality or recurring pattern recognizable in the data. The uniformity also indicates that there are no periodic fluctuations, leading to the conclusion that no underlying seasonal impact affects the MMK exchange rates to a noticeable extent.

    Outliers

    The one instance where exchange rate peaks to 0.00065 could be considered an outlier, as it deviates from the otherwise stable exchange rate of 0.00064. However, the absence of a broader context or additional data makes it difficult to determine whether this is a true anomaly or a result of an unrecorded pattern or event.

    Concluding Remarks

    Overall, the dataset provides a highly stable picture of the MMK exchange rates, with little to no variation over the recorded period. The observed stability could imply either a low volatility in the MMK currency or limitations in the dataset's context or granularity. Without further context or more detailed data, it's quite challenging to draw more comprehensive conclusions. If more information becomes available, a more in-depth analysis could be performed.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    The data provided offers insights into MMK exchange rates at different times. From an initial interpretation of the data, it's observed that the MMK exchange rate remains remarkably stable at 0.00064 throughout the entire dataset. Thus, there isn't any visible increasing or decreasing trend in the exchange rates for the period represented by the data.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Given the stability of the exchange rates throughout the data, no discernable seasonality or recurring patterns are obvious. Since the exchange rate value holds consistently at 0.00064 for every timestamp, it indicates the absence of any fluctuation that might suggest a seasonal or repetitive pattern. Further sophisticated analysis techniques or a broader dataset may be needed to determine any subtle underlying cyclic variations.

    3. Outliers and Significant Variations

    Outliers in a data set are values that substantially deviate from the other observations. They often reveal interesting insights or errors. However, in examining this dataset, no outliers are visible as the MMK exchange rate remains the same across all timestamps. This suggests a highly stable exchange rate during this period. Any significant variations from the established rate of 0.00064 may indeed be considered outliers, but none such occurrences are present in the dataset.

    In conclusion, for the period represented by this dataset, the MMK exchange rate shows remarkable consistency. Therefore, basing on this data, we cannot comment on any existing patterns, fluctuations, or trends of change over time.