Ghana Cedi Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The exchange rates data seems to exhibit a relatively stable pattern across the given timespan. While discrepancies can be observed in the decimal figures, major fluxes in the GHS exchange rate are not explicit. Prominent swings in the GHS rate are not apparent either, indicating a general stability in the data.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Any unique periodic patterns or seasonality within the data cannot be conclusively established from an analysis of the data alone. Nevertheless, the data seems to follow a general uniform trend over the provided time intervals. Discrepancies in the data seem random and not tied to any discernable pattern or interval.

    Identifying Outliers

    Outliers in a dataset are observations that lie an abnormal distance from other values. Given the data ranges in the GHS exchange rate, no significant deviations from the normal range were glaringly apparent, implying the absence of substantial outliers. However, a more robust statistical analysis might be required to affirm this conclusion and to precisely identify potential outliers based on standard deviation or similar metrics.

    Additional Notes

    It should be noted that the above assessments are devised with no consideration of external catalysts such as market hours, holidays, weekends, or significant news reports that could potentially affect the exchange rate. A more in-depth review would take into account these factors and may result in more nuanced insight into the trends of the exchange rates. Also, a reminder that this analysis does not intend to provide any forecasts for future rates – its purpose is solely to interpret the historical data given at hand in its raw form.

    Note: The above details are based solely upon the data snippet provided. For a comprehensive analysis, a broader dataset might be analyzed including additional timestamps and spanning over prolonged periods to factor in daily, monthly, and yearly patterns (if any).

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Trending analysis

    Looking at the data, the GHS exchange rate is not static. There is neither a continual increase nor decrease in the exchange rates. Instead, we see a trend of ups and downs throughout different periods. The range of the variations is not large; the major difference is around 0.0003. The rates start from 0.10778 on 2024-02-28 00:00:02 and ended at 0.10785 on 2024-02-28 23:55:02. Even though we can observe a slight overall increment in rates, the direction of where it is going is not clear and steady.

    Seasonality and recurring patterns

    It is a bit challenging to infer if there are any seasonality or recurring patterns within this exchange rate data purely based on one day's data. Generally, financial data requires a longer time period to surface any clear patterns. Here, we can see miniature fluctuations but no apparent repetitive pattern during the day.

    Identification of outliers

    An outlier is an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values in a random sample from a population. In this dataset, there are no extreme jumps or drops in a short period— the fluctuations are within a reasonable range. Therefore, no distinct outliers can be pinpointed from the given data.

    Please note: The analysis above is purely based on the given one-day data. To get a more profound understanding and to identify a clear trend, seasonality, or outliers, we would require a larger dataset which spans over a longer period. In real world, exchange rates highly depend on the socioeconomic status at the given time period, inflation and interest rates, political stability, and speculation, among others. Therefore, historical data and relevant external news should also be included for a more accurate analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The general trend of the exchange rates over the provided time period shows minor fluctuations. The values tend to fluctuate around the 0.1077 mark. At several instances, the exchange rates reach highs of approximately 0.10789 and lows around 0.10756. However, there is no strong or consistent increasing or decreasing trend observed in this dataset.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    An analysis of the data does not reveal a clear and consistent recurring pattern or seasonality in the exchange rates. The fluctuations appear to be somewhat random over the time period, with no definitive cycles or patterns that occur at regular intervals.

    3. Outliers in the Data

    The data does not seem to possess any significant outliers. The exchange rates stay within a rather tight range during this period, from approximately 0.10756 to about 0.10789. There are no instances of the exchange rate differing significantly from these values.

    While it is worth noting the highest and lowest points, overall, the data seems to be quite consistent, and no extreme outliers can be identified from this analysis.

    4. Additional Observations

    The dataset provided does not show any significant influence of external factors like market opening/closing time, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports as per the given instructions. The analysis focuses primarily on the internal characteristics of the data. From the data given, it seems that the changes to the exchange rates are fairly stable and do not exhibit any extreme fluctuations or variance.

    Please note that this analysis solely regards the given dataset and is done with the assumption that no external factors are influencing the exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The data provided shows fluctuations in the exchange rate between dates January 26, 2024 and February 23, 2024. There is no firm overall trend being observed uniformly over the entire period in terms of monotonic (only increasing or only decreasing) behavior, as the exchange rate shows peaks and troughs intermittently. However, a detailed understanding of the trend would require a statistical time series analysis technique.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Understanding seasonality or recurring patterns would require a deep dive into the time-series data finding patterns over a day or over similar periods. As we only have data for around a month, it is difficult to conclusively determine long-term seasonality or recurring patterns. However, there appear to be daily ups and downs, which might signal intra-day trends. Estimation of such seasonality would demand further temporal disaggregation.

    Outliers Analysis

    Identification of outliers completely depends on the understanding of what is normal behaviour or occurrence. While there are spikes and drops in the exchange rate, none of them appear to completely deviate from the behaviour in this particular period. This being said, an in-depth statistical analysis by considering factors such as the mean, standard deviation, interquartile range, etc., could give a better insight into outlier identification and treatment.

    Further Considerations

    The analysis offered here is a primary and straightforward one, focusing solely on the information from the raw time-series data provided. Any conclusive statement about trends, seasonality, and outliers would require a more in-depth statistical analysis. Moreover, exchange rates are influenced by external factors such as market sentiments, economic indicators, geopolitical events, etc. They follow a random walk hypothesis and are also often subject to sudden and unforeseen changes.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates over the provided data period is relatively stable. The exchange rate started at 0.10807 on 2024-02-19 01:00:02 and ended at 0.1091 on 2024-02-23 14:00:01. The changes in the exchange rate during this period are mostly minimal.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the narrow timeframe of the dataset, it's challenging to determine any significant seasonal or recurring patterns. However, minor fluctuations can be observed regularly. There seems to be a slight increase in the exchange rate during the day (from 09:00 to 20:00) and a decrease during the night (from 21:00 to 06:00). This pattern is not consistent, but appears frequently enough to be noted.

    3. Outliers in the Exchange Rate

    There is an apparent outlier on 2024-02-21 09:00:03 where the exchange rate dramatically increased to 0.12847 before returning to around its previous level at 0.10812 in the next timestamp. This sudden spike deviates significantly from the trend observed in the rest of the data, and likely represents an error or unusual event. All other fluctuations within the dataset are relatively minor and fit within the normal range of the established trend.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    The data set ranges from February 23, 2024, 12:00:02, to February 23, 2024, 14:55:01. In this period, the GHS exchange rate has experienced a slight increase. At the beginning of the time frame, the rate was 0.10759 and increased to 0.10911 at the end. Thus, over the period under review, the trend of the exchange rate appears to be slightly upward.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rate

    Upon examining the dataset, it doesn't seem to highlight obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. However, this claim needs a more advanced time-series analysis technique like Fourier Transforms or Autocorrelation Plots for confirmation, which is outside the scope of this analysis. Remember, this is a very short-term data set – only covering about three hours in a single day.

    But there is a noticeable pattern that the rate tends to remain stable for several minutes before making a jump. This could be due to market microstructure effects or due to the way the data is rounded or reported.

    Identification of Outliers

    • There is a significant increase in GHS exchange rate from 0.10756 (at 10:00:03) to 0.10915, recorded at 10:10:03. This sharp rise within such a short time span can be considered an outlier.
    • Also, there's a sharp decline in the rate from 0.10759 (at 06:15:02) to 0.10738 observed at 06:20:02, which can also be labeled as an outlier.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, the GHS exchange rate data provided for this particular day experienced a slight upward trend with occasional sharp increases and decreases. These large changes occur in short periods and appear to be outliers within the dataset. However, there are no clear recurring patterns or seasonality observed within the data for this single day.