Kina Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

Based on the provided dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates (PGK) seems to show a general decrease throughout the period, with some fluctuations upwards in between. The highest value is 0.36072 while the lowest value is 0.35437. The rates started at 0.36067, fluctuated upwards to the high point, then gradually decreased to the lowest point and increased slight towards the end of the dataset.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As it's a time series data that spans over a day, a clear seasonality or recurring pattern in this dataset is hard to determine solely from this data. However, the data does show fluctuations throughout the day, but no distinct pattern emerges that could be reliably identified as seasonal or recurring.

Outliers

Upon inspection of the data, no significant outliers that substantially vary from the overall trend or seasonality are observed. All values lie in a relatively narrow range of 0.35437 to 0.36072, indicating a relatively consistent behavior of the exchange rates throughout the period covered by the data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Overall Trend Analysis

The data provided shows varying exchange rate figures over a 24-hour period. Through a brief glance and preliminary assessment of the data, we can see the rates fluctuate but there is no clear overall increasing or decreasing trend within this one-day period observed.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

A better and more detailed understanding of seasonality or recurring patterns would require historical data over a more prolonged duration. However, within this limited scope of data, discerning any distinct seasonality or recurring pattern is challenging.

Outliers

At a quick glance, no significant outliers are visible in the data. The exchange rate changes are incremental and there seem to be no abrupt jumps or falls within the provided dataset.

Please note, it's important to understand that the results provided here are based on the limited data shared and could change with the addition of more historical and future data.

Disclaimers

• The inferences made above are solely based on the dataset provided without any specific criteria, circumstances or any other market factors involved. Market rates are influenced by various parameters including but not limited to country's economic performance, global economic events, interest rates, inflation and political stability.
• The above conclusions are tentative and based only on the provided data for one day. For more accurate interpretations and conclusions, data over a longer period is required.
• All findings in the above analysis should not be used as a basis for making any financial decisions or trading.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Observing the dataset, the PGK exchange rate shows some degree of volatility, fluctuating between the lowest at 0.35934 and the highest at 0.36138 throughout the specified time period. However, there doesn't seem to be a clear increasing or decreasing trend in the exchange rate when looking at the entire period. Despite the fluctuations, the rates generally stabilize around 0.3607. However, this doesn't represent a clear upward or downward pattern in the values; rather, it seems to evidence the volatile nature of the exchange rate over the time period.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The exchange rates show slight evidence of a daily cycle, with certain times consistently showing higher or lower values. However, these patterns do not appear to be strong enough to establish a clear seasonal trend. A deeper analysis with more extensive data might reveal more nuanced seasonal patterns.

3. Outliers in the Data

At a quick glance at the data, no significant outliers or abnormal values are immediately evident. Most of the values in the dataset are consistently around the average of 0.3607. However, when looking at the data at a more detailed level, there may be individual periods with higher than usual volatility. It's worth noting that in the context of exchange rates, what might initially seem like small fluctuations can actually represent significant changes when dealing with large volumes of transactions.

Unfortunately, without more detailed analysis tools or additional data, it's not possible to confidently identify or explain these potential outliers. In order to gain a more accurate understanding of the data, it may be helpful to instead examine them in the context of specific events, market conditions, or time periods which could potentially explain the observed fluctuations.

Summary of Last Month

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Understanding the Overall Trend

From the data provided, it can be observed that the exchange rates generally show stability with minor fluctuations. At the beginning of the dataset on 22nd April 2024 at 00:00:02, the exchange rate was at 0.36148. Towards the end of the dataset on 22nd April 2024 at 23:55:02, the exchange rate reported is 0.36072. While there are small ups and downs in between, overall, this points towards a minor decline across the whole period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

With regards to seasonality or recurring patterns, the data doesn't provide any strong evidence for a consistent pattern within the day. The exchange rates vary at different times of the day, however, these changes don't follow a clear and predictable pattern based on the provided data. Additional data spanning a more extended period may be necessary to more accurately determine if there are any seasonal or recurring patterns.

Outliers Identification

The data seems to be fairly consistent with no instances of drastic changes in rates, hence no significant outliers could be detected. There are certainly periods where the exchange rate increases or decreases more rapidly, for instance, at around 6:20:02 the rate drops from 0.36136 to 0.36074. But such instances don't deviate excessively from the rest of the data to be classified as outliers, especially considering the fluctuating nature of exchange rates.

Note: Predicting exchange rate movements is a complex topic that involves various factors such as inflation rates, interest rates, public debt, terms of trade, political stability, and economic performance among others. Some of these factors and their complex interactions could be the reason behind the observed minor fluctuations in the exchange rate, but splintering out these factors given just the exchange rate data is not possible.

Summary of Last Week

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Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The exchange rate of PGK, as per the data provided from 22nd March 2024 through 19th April 2024, is showing a moderate upward trend. There are slight fluctuations in the exchange rate over time, but the data does not reveal any significant or rapid swings that would indicate extreme volatility. At the start of the period on 22nd March 2024, the exchange rate was 0.35736 and it increased to 0.36155 by the end of the period on 19th April 2024.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Looking at the given dataset, it is difficult to point out a clear-cut seasonality or recurrent pattern in the changes of exchange rates because the data provided covers a relatively short period of slightly less than a month. The usual seasonal patterns in financial data are generally observed over a longer period. However, from the information at hand, there does seem to be slight cyclic fluctuations in very short terms, potentially on a daily or weekly basis. This could suggest that there are short-term factors influencing the exchange rate.

Outliers

There are a few instances in the dataset where the exchange rate seems to deviate a bit from its general upward trend. For instance, on 26th March, the rate dropped significantly to 0.35413 around 8:00, compared to the rate of 0.3596 around 6:00 of the same day. These could potentially be cases of short-term volatility due to specific market events, though it's not possible to confirm without examining the external factors that are beyond the scope of this analysis.

In summary, the overall trend in exchange rates for this period is mildly upward, despite some slight day-to-day fluctuations and a few sharper shifts. There might be some short-term cyclic patterns, but no clear seasonal trends can be recognized due to the short timeline of the dataset. Regardless, this analysis is strictly confined to the provided dataset and does not take into account external macroeconomic factors, financial news, or reports that could have an impact on the PGK exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Data Analysis Overview

In analyzing the time series data provided, there are numerous insights that we can draw from the exchange rates' trend, seasonality, and the existence of any outliers. Each of these will give us a clearer picture of the underlying behaviors of these rates over the provided timestamps.

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The general trend of the exchange rates seems to be fluctuating between the values of approximately 0.36 and 0.37. Although the rates fluctuate, there is a slight but gradual increase over time. Spikes in exchange rates can be noticed at specific points, notably around 07:00:02 on both April 15th, 2024 and April 16th, 2024. The rate reaches its peak on April 18th, 2024, at approximately 11:00:02, then it gradually decreases until it reaches its lowest point on April 19th, 2024, at around 03:00:02. After this point, the rates start to gradually recover.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

As far as the data provided, it's tough to decisively conclude a seasonality component or a recurring pattern within the data, especially considering that the data only spans less than a week. Usually, such patterns are noticeable over longer periods - monthly, quarterly, or yearly. However, we see some daily fluctuation where exchange rates increase around 07:00:02 and hit their peak around 10:00:02 to 11:00:02, then gradually decrease.

Existence of Outliers

There are two noticeable outliers in the data - the first one is at 07:00:02 on April 15th, 2024, when the exchange rate has a significantly sharp increase as compared to previous timestamps, after which the rate decreases again. The second significant outlier occurs on the April 18th, 2024, timestamp of 11:00:02, when the exchange rate peaks at the highest value across all the provided data. This sudden increase is succeeded by a gradual decrease in exchange rates.

Please note that while these points deviate from the general trend they are not abnormal when considering financial time-series data where such spikes can often be attributed to various market factors.

Last but not least, the analysis might be impacted by the missing values in the data as the time intervals are not equal.

Conclusively, this is only a high-level analysis based on the limited data provided. A more extensive analysis might be required to make any robust conclusions on the trend, seasonality, and outlier identification.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding The Overall Trend

The exchange rates represented by PGK exhibit some fluctuation over the time period given. There doesn't appear to be a significant overall increase or decrease in rates observed. For instance, at the benchmark time of 2024-04-19 00:00:02, the exchange rate is at 0.36131, and at the end of the dataset timestamp on 2024-04-19 14:55:01, the rate is notably about 0.36185. This may indicate some small erratic fluctuations but not a distinctive overall upward or downward trend.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The data doesn't provide sufficient evidence to assert a concrete seasonality or repeating pattern in the PGK exchange rate. The intervals between the recorded exchange rates are not equally spaced, with the frequency of observations ranging from 5 minutes to sometimes more than 20 minutes apart. This irregularity may pose difficulties in identifying a concrete cyclical pattern. Therefore, it is important to note that a more meticulous dataset with regular and systematic intervals could be of great aid to identifying seasonality or recurring patterns accurately.

Outliers Identification

While the dataset doesn't appear to have many drastic deviations from the trend, a few instances exhibit outliers or abnormal shifts in the exchange rate. For instance, around 06:25:02 on 2024-04-19, there is a noticeable increase in the exchange rate from 0.36107 to 0.36232. Similarly, on 2024-04-19 09:05:03, the rate drastically reduces from 0.36183 to 0.36153. These points suggest a sizeable fluctuation in the short term which might be due to unique instances impacting the exchange market. Beyond these instances, the exchange rates stay relatively consistent around the 0.361 to 0.362 range.