CFP Franc Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The dataset provided covers a single day's worth of exchange rate data for XPF. At the start of the day, the XPF rate was 0.01175. It had a slight drop to 0.01174 at 00:50:02, but quickly returned to 0.01175. From 01:35:02, a slight increase was observed to 0.01176 which was maintained till 04:25:03 when the exchange rate increased to 0.01177. This rate fluctuated between 0.01176 and 0.01177 until 11:25:03, when a noticeable increase happened, bringing the rate to 0.01225 which fluctuated slightly for the rest of the day, falling as low as 0.01223.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Given that this data covers the span of a single day, it's difficult to identify any clear-cut patterns or seasonal changes within the data. However, there was a consistent upwards trend observed with small fluctuations. In the early hours (01:35:02 to 04:25:03), there was a minute regular increase in the exchange rate. A similar pattern was observed from 11:25:03 where a more noticeable increase was spotted which fluctuated slightly for the remained of the day. Without more data to span several weeks or months, seasonality cannot be firmly established.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    An outlier within this dataset seemed to occur at 11:25:03. The exchange rate jumped from 0.01175 directly to 0.01225. This change is an abnormal increase compared to the stability and slight fluctuations detected throughout the rest of the day's data and may need further investigation. Despite this, the rate continued to fluctuate within this higher range (0.01223 to 0.01225) for the remainder of the day which makes this value not entirely an aberration but it's a substantial single-step change compared to the remainder of the dataset nevertheless.

    Conclusion

    To improve the quality of this analysis, I would recommend incorporating data over a longer time frame, preferably, spanning several weeks or months. This extended set of data would provide a broader perspective into the XPF exchange rate and also enable the detection of any existing seasonality or recurring patterns.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The first goal is to understand the overall trend of the exchange rates. From the given time-series data, it's observed that the rates fluctuate between 0.01112 and 0.01226. Initially, the exchange rates remain fairly stable at around 0.01224 for a sufficient duration, indicating a phase of relative stability.

    Following this period of stability, the rates increase slightly to around 0.01225, indicating a minor upward trend. This trend does not last long and the rates start decreasing, reaching a minimum of 0.01112. Afterwards, the rates start converging to around 0.0115, which is maintained during the remainder of the observed time period.

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in changes of exchange rates

    Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, this dataset does not provide sufficient information to make definitive conclusions. The data provided appears to consist of intraday data spanning a single day and does not provide longer-term historical information (e.g., months or years) typically required to discern seasonal patterns. However, within the given timeframe, no clear repeating patterns are evident from the provided data – fluctuations in the exchange rate seem sporadic rather than cyclic.

    Noting outliers and significant deviations

    The most significant exchange rate deviation occurs when the rate abruptly falls to 0.01112. This decline represents a break from the previous stability around 0.0115 and stands out as an outlier in the context of the day's data. Beyond this instance, fluctuations in the exchange rate are relatively minor.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    Looking at the provided data, the overall trend of exchange rates appears to be relatively stable from January 26, 2024 to February 23, 2024. While there are fluctuations in the exchange rates throughout this period, these changes are not substantial. The values generally hover within the narrow range of 0.01209 to 0.01224, showing minimal variability. This suggests that the exchange rate of XPF does neither significantly increase nor decrease over the time period in question.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Considering the nature of time series data provided, it is difficult to precisely ascertain seasonality or recurring patterns without conducting a deeper quantitative analysis. However, just by looking at the dataset, it doesn't seem to present any immediately obvious patterns of distinctive increases or decreases that repeat at specific intervals. It is worth noting that any minute pattern observed might be a coincidence as exchange rates are influenced by a multitude of factors.

    3. Outliers Analysis

    Most of the XPF exchange rates in the dataset range between 0.01209 and 0.01224. Though multiple instances of the rate dipping slightly below or rising slightly above this range can be noticed, these instances can still be considered within an acceptable range of fluctuation. In this context, one exchange rate value that stands out is 0.01111 on February 23, 2024, 12:00:03. This data point is significantly lower than all other rate values in the dataset and thus can be considered an outlier. However, it is important to investigate this further, as extreme outliers like this can sometimes result from data entry errors.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

    Examining the data, it seems that the exchange rate of XPF has fluctuated over the given period, with minute increments and decrements throughout. On the 19th of February 2024, the rate started at 0.01212, and by the 23rd of February 2024, it ended at 0.01223. Thus, there's no significant long-term increase or decrease trend observed over this time frame. Essentially, the XPF rate remained fairly stable amidst minor fluctuations.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns:

    With the limited time range of 4-5 days and hourly data provided, it's difficult to identify any long-term seasonality or recurring patterns. However, there are instances of cyclical patterns daily, such as small changes in the exchange rates that recur throughout the day. This fluctuating pattern seems consistent and is noticed over multiple days, which indicates potential intra-day seasonality.

    3. Noting outliers:

    Two noticeable outliers appear within the dataset. On the 23rd of February 2024, there are two instances with the XPF rate dropping substantially to 0.01111, a departure from the general pattern observed over the period. This drop appears inconsistent with the otherwise stable trend observed and thus can be considered outliers.

    Overall, this evaluation provides a rudimental understanding of the given XPF exchange rate data. For a thorough study, more extensive data might be needed, including a broader range of dates and additional context concerning possible market influences during those periods.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Understanding the overall trend of XPF rates

    Based on the provided data, it seems like the XPF exchange rate remained stable in the very early parts of the time series, specifically at 0.01223. Afterwards, around the time period between 10:10:03 to 12:20:03, the exchange rate significantly dropped to 0.01112 and 0.01111 consecutively. Shortly after, the rate went back up to 0.01223 and ended the series again at the stable rate of 0.01223. We may therefore establish that the overall trend of the time series data has general fluctuations but appears to eventually return to its original state.

    Seasonality or recurring patterns in exchange rates

    Given the limited scope of data and the request to exclude consideration of market hours, weekends or holidays, and key financial news and reports, it's difficult to firmly establish any seasonality or recurring patterns within the data. More historical data would be needed to analyze seasonality. However, in the data provided, there doesn't seem to be a distinct repetition or pattern in terms of the frequency and magnitude of exchange rate changes.

    Outliers in the dataset

    Within the dataset provided, we can identify multiple potential outliers. Most notably, during the following timestamp - "2024-02-23 10:10:03", the exchange rate took a sharp dip from 0.01225 to 0.01112. This represents a significant drop which clearly deviates from the usual pattern seen in the data subset. The rate remained low at this level even after a number of data points until it eventually picked up again. This instance can be considered an outlier within the context of this specific dataset. Without more contextual detail, it's difficult to attribute this sharp decline to any one particular event or factor.