Saudi Riyal Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend in the exchange rates (SAR) dataset shows that the rates have been experiencing minor fluctuations over the entire period. It starts with a value of 0.36195, and it ends with a value of 0.36187, which indicates a slight decrease but largely remaining stable. The highest value reached in the dataset is 0.36254, and the lowest value is 0.3611. This shows that while there are fluctuations, they are fairly contained within this small range.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From the dataset provided, it's difficult to detect any significant seasonality or recurring patterns in the data. It does not display a clear cyclical pattern based on the timestamps provided, which would signal things like daily or hourly trends. However, more detailed analysis or segmentation of the data might reveal subtler patterns not immediately recognizable from a broad overview.

    Outliers

    Regarding outliers, there don't seem to be any instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the overall trend. The value of SAR fluctuates within a narrow range, and there is no sudden spike or drop beyond this range in the dataset provided. Again, the existing fluctuations might seem substantial if they are related to any financial events or news, but such analysis requires further external information not provided in this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Based on the data provided, it appears that the exchange rates show a slight upward trend from 2024-02-28 00:00:02 to 2024-02-28 23:55:02. The SAR exchange rate starts at 0.36124, dips slightly, and then marginally moves upwards, ending up at 0.36188. However, it's important to note that the changes in the rates do not seem to change significantly as the fluctuations are minutely proportioned.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns.

    As per the data, there doesn't seem to be a perceivable seasonality or recurring pattern in the changes of exchange rates. The rates gradually fluctuate but not in a distinct periodic or repeated manner. This might be due to the data covering less than a day's session, making it harder to point out the daily patterns or seasonality.

    Noting any outliers

    From the time series data provided, there are no easily identifiable instances where the exchange rate deviates drastically or differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend. All the fluctuations in the exchange rate provided remain within a close range between approximately 0.36120 and 0.36230, without any extreme surges or dips.

    To solidify these findings, more advanced statistical techniques could be used, and it is also recommended to include data over an extended timeframe to better identify trends, patterns, and outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Starting at 0.36022 at the beginning of the dataset, the exchange rate exhibits an initially steady trend with small fluctuations before continuing in a general upward direction, reaching its peak at 0.36071 by around the 5-hour mark. It then starts to witness a gradual downward trend, hitting the lowest point at 0.35997 by around the 14-hour mark. After this low, it begins a recovery trend, reaching 0.36027 by the 21-hour mark. It then seems to witness another soft decline closing at 0.36002 by the end of the provided dataset. This overall trend suggests a generally stable exchange rate, with a minor peak and trough in between. The range of the exchange rate fluctuates between 0.35997 and 0.36071.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Upon examination of the given dataset, it does not seem to indicate any specific or strong seasonality or recurring patterns. The values mainly stay within a tight range, and most of the fluctuations can be considered minimal. However, this does not rule out the possibility of patterns that might not be visible without more data or a longer time frame. A broader dataset covering a year or more might offer more insights regarding seasonality.

    Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    In this dataset, there does not appear to be any outliers. The exchange rates all fall within a very narrow band of values and generally follow a smooth, consistent trend. There are no individual rates that appear to deviate significantly from the established trend, which suggests that there were no severe disruptions to the exchange rate during this period. However, notable value peaks could potentially be identified around the 5-hour mark and subtle troughs closer to the 14-hour mark.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    By looking at the data presented, the trend of the exchange rates does not seem to follow a clear uptrend or downtrend. However, a substantial fluctuation can be observed throughout the series. The range of the exchange rates seems to be quite contained within a small interval, with the highest rate at roughly 0.36225 and lowest at approximately 0.35625. There is no solid upward or downward trend indicative of significant global economic changes or local fiscal policy revisions in the exchange rate's progression.

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

    In the context of foreign exchange rates, it's uncommon to find a consistent 'seasonality' as retail sales data or temperature readings might present. However, there can be cyclical patterns associated with global macroeconomic factors. Despite the absence of a discernible seasonality in the given dataset, recurring fluctuations are present on a smaller scale. Further investigation using appropriate time-series analysis or statistical techniques could potentially determine the exact periodicity or pattern of these cycles.

    Noting any outliers or significant deviations from the expected

    A close analysis of the data shows a few potential outliers, mainly where the exchange rate reaches its peaks and troughs. Instances where the exchange rate varies significantly from its general range can be considered as outliers. In this dataset, the points reaching near 0.36225 and around 0.35625 could potentially be viewed as outliers. We can calculate the interquartile range (IQR) or use certain predetermined statistical thresholds to more accurately define these outliers. However, whether or not these outliers are significant or just a result of normal market volatility would need further context.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Based on the dataset provided, it is noticeable that the exchange rates witnessed minor fluctuations between 0.35859 and 0.36077. However, the dominant trend is a slight increase, considering the SAR exchange rate moved from 0.35926 on 2024-02-19 01:00:02 to 0.35998 on 2024-02-23 14:00:01. No substantial tendency towards a continuous increase or decrease is present, suggesting a relatively stable exchange rate environment within the analysed period.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Without considering external factors, such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, no clear recurring patterns or seasonality are evident from the data provided. The minor fluctuations observed don't provide sufficient information to suggest any specific hourly or daily trends in the examined timeframe. Additional data across longer timescales or granularity (such as minute-by-minute data) would be needed for a more comprehensive analysis in terms of identifying any potential seasonality.

    3. Outliers and Unexpected Variations

    Given that the dataset concentrates on a short timeframe and exhibits minor fluctuations, no significant outliers were observed in the exchange rates. There is no instant where the exchange rate varies widely from the general trend. Since there's no distinctive trend of sharp increases or decreases, it's difficult to identify an outlier based only on the provided data.

    Please note, while this analysis provides a general understanding of the pattern within the provided dataset, for a comprehensive scrutiny incorporating the impacts of relevant external variables or unlocking deeper insights, more expanded historical data would be crucial.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Based on your provided dataset, below I've conducted an analysis which aims to provide you with insights into the overall trend of exclusion rates, identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, and note any outliers.

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The time series data showcases minor fluctuations throughout the given period. There is no clear pattern of consistent significant increase or decrease in the SAR exchange rates over this period. The rate started with a value of around 0.35945 and ended around 0.36001. There are small ups and downs within this range throughout the given time period.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    In financial data analysis, seasonality refers to predictable and recurring patterns that occur periodically. However, the given dataset does not appear to display explicit seasonality, considering the short time span and the slight variations in the SAR exchange rates. For more precise conclusions about recurring patterns and seasonality, it would be beneficial to have access to a wider range of data spanning multiple years or specific seasons.

    3. Outliers and Exchange Rate Differences

    • The lowest SAR exchange rate given in the dataset is 0.35894.
    • The highest SAR exchange rate in the dataset is 0.36039.

    If we consider the rate's minor fluctuations, with the smallest being 0.35894 and largest being 0.36039, there appears to be no significant outliers within the data when considering the short duration of time series. It seems that the variations in the exchange rate follow a rather consistent behavior, with no abrupt or significant spikes or drops. Noticeable deviations from the general trend line, which could be considered as potential outliers, are not present.