Saudi Riyal Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

After looking at the data provided, I've come up with the following analysis:

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Overall, the exchange rates see slight fluctuations throughout the data set. The initial value starts at 0.36502 and the final value is at 0.36405. The slight decrease observed suggests a minor downward trend in the exchange rates over this interval.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The data exhibits a certain degree of cyclic pattern on the intraday level. The exchange rate seems to peak & bottom out several times throughout the 24-hour period. However, the exact timing and magnitude of these highs and lows are not regular, which suggests these are largely influenced by market activities rather than the clock time.

3. Outliers

Most time points follow the general trend and there isn't a significant jump or fall observed within the provided data, so outliers are minimal. Although, it is important to mention that more rigorous statistical procedures would need to be followed to accurately identify outliers.

Observations

Please note, the analysis above does not take into account any external events like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news or reports. Additionally, the analysis does not consider whether the rates are closing rates, opening rates, high, low or average over the time period. Also, other potentially influencing factors have not been considered in this analysis as they haven't been included in the input data. To enhance the analytical power, it would be beneficial to have these additional pieces of data.

Further deep-diving analysis and modelling could potentially reveal more insights and improve the future accuracy of our exchange rate predictions.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Looking at the data provided from 2024-04-24 (00:00:02) to 2024-04-24 (23:55:02), the overall trend of SAR exchange rate seems to be increasing. The rate started at 0.36435 and ended at 0.36505 indicating a very slight yet noticeable upward trend. The absolute change in the rate over this period was 0.0007. This suggests that the rate has been slightly appreciating over this period.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The pattern of exchange rates within the day can be broadly categorized into two periods:

• Early hours (approximately 00:00 to 12:00): During this period, the exchange rate began to rise at a moderate pace.
• Late hours (approximately 12:00 to 24:00): The exchange rate showed a mixed trend. It continued its upward movement until around 14:20, where it reached the peak value of the day, then started to decrease slightly, showing a corrective phase after a sharp increase. A noticeable decline after reaching the peak indicates some form of seasonality or recurring daily pattern in the exchange rate.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Based on the data provided, it is quite difficult to identify any significant outliers without more context or understanding of the specified acceptable range for these values. Overall, there doesn't seem to be any significant jumps or drops over the period. The values exhibit some regular fluctuations, but the exchange rate appears mostly stable.

Please note that this analysis provides a general overview and does not account for specific market events or geopolitical factors that may influence the exchange rate. Furthermore, the inherent nature of financial data and exchange rates makes them quite volatile and the results of this brief analysis should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of SAR Exchange Rate Data

Upon initial inspection, the data provided indicates the exchange rate of the Saudi Arabian Riyal (SAR) at various time points throughout a specific day. Let's delve deeper into understanding the key aspects of this time series data.

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Over the course of the data provided, the SAR exchange rate appears to mildly fluctuate between approximately 0.3641 and 0.3656. However, the rate seems to maintain a relatively steady average, suggesting that there is no aggressive incline or decline in the overall trend but rather a series of subtle ups and downs.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Due to the data provided only spanning over a limited period of time (one day), it's challenging to identify any seasonality or significant cyclical pattern with any level of certainty. However, there does appear to be a slight tendency for exchange rates to peak and trough within short intervals. These fluctuations could potentially hint at a daily pattern, but this would need to be validated with more extensive data spanning over a longer period of time.

3. Outliers and unexpected exchange rate fluctuations

Though the data shows minor fluctuations over the given period, it remains within a reasonably tight range. Therefore, it is difficult to identify any obvious outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what might be anticipated, given the general trend. There mostly exists a uniformity in the rate's behavior which suggests a strong level of market stability during this particular period.

Keep in mind that this analysis has focused strictly on the numerical data provided. Real-world events such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, can heavily influence the exchange rates, but these factors have not been taken into account.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the provided dataset, the overall trend of SAR exchange rates during this period can be described as rather fluctuating but generally maintaining within a certain range. Although there are spikes and troughs throughout the day, the exchange rates comfortably fluctuate between 0.36494 and 0.36656. There's no constant increasing or decreasing trend throughout the period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The time-series data present shows a daily pattern of highs and lows, indicating a level of seasonality to the exchange rates. While these fluctuations are not drastic, they seem to exhibit a recurring daily pattern. For instance, high values are generally observed between 08:00 to 09:00, and relatively lower rates are noticeable during the period between 12:00 to 14:00. This pattern of 'high in the morning, low in the afternoon' repeats on a daily basis throughout the dataset.

Outliers and Unexpected Changes

• One noticeable construction is the jump in the value to 0.36656 at 08:35. This is higher than most values within the dataset, marking this point as a potential outlier.
• Another potential instance of a significant change from the trend is observed at around 13:35 where the exchange rate dips to the day's low of 0.36494. This again seems to be an unexpected outlier based on the general trend of the data.

In summary, the exchange rates seem to revolve within a certain range with a daily pattern of highs and lows. However, there are occasional instances of notable increases or decreases deviating from the general trend.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Looking at the dataset, the overall trend of exchange rates from 2024-03-22 to 2024-04-19 is generally stable with slight fluctuations. There's no clear trend of either an increase or a decrease in exchange rates over the entire period shown. Instead, the exchange front goes through a series of minor ups and downs. The SAR rates range approximately between 0.359 and 0.368, with no sharp increases or drops noted. Thus, we can conclude that during this period, the exchange rates remained relatively stable.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Change of Exchange Rates

From the given dataset, it is difficult to identify any clear seasonal or recurring patterns in the change of exchange rates. As this data only represents around one month of exchange rate data, identifying a seasonal pattern requires data for a larger time-frame, typically a year or more. Furthermore, recurring patterns, such as a particular trend repeating every few days or weeks, also look non evident due to the relative stability of the rates over the period observed.

Noting Outliers in Exchange Rates

An outlier can be defined as an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values. In the provided dataset, there don't appear to be values that could be deemed outliers. All the exchange rates fall reasonably within the same range. However, a more in-depth statistical analysis could provide better insights on whether there are significant outliers. From a high-level review of the data, it seems the exchange rates all fall within an ordinary range, following a relatively normal distribution with no significant outlier.

Please note that these observations are solely based on the dataset provided and don't take into account the impact of external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Having analyzed the timestamps and the corresponding SAR exchange rates presented in the dataset, the general data trend primarily seem to be relatively stable, with small increments and decrements. The SAR exchange rates started at a value of 0.36647 and ended at 0.36629, indicating a slight overall decrease.

Identifying Seasonal Patterns

Regarding seasonality or re-occurring patterns, without specific reference to weekdays or months, it is challenging to establish seasonality upon a cursory view. However, on a more granular scale, the data seem to oscillate slightly within specific narrow bands, suggesting there may exist daily cyclic patterns that could worth further exploration.

Outlier Investigation

Within the confines of the dataset, fluctuations in SAR exchange rates seem regular and smaller, suggesting that outliers, if any, might not be too pronounced within the period under review. There are small peaks and troughs, but none that differ significantly from the apparent mild volatility of the period. In depth analysis with statistical tools would be necessary for precise outliers identification.

Additional Observations

Understanding the dataset's inherent limitations helps put this exploratory analysis into perspective. It's essential to note the dataset offers data compiled at varying hours each day instead of a regular time interval. Therefore, the data may conceal aspects of the financial market's intra-day volatility. While external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports have been explicitly excluded from our analysis, their potential bearing on the currency rates cannot be discounted in a real-world economic scenario.

Conclusion

The SAR Exchange rate as shown by the dataset is relatively stable with minor fluctuations. Peaks and troughs apparent in the data don't seem to differ significantly from the overall volatility in the period. Noticeable daily patterns could suggest potential intra-day seasonality, while the unique structure and constraints of the dataset limit the entire scope of this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of Exchange Rates Trend

From the provided dataset, it can be observed that the exchange rates experience minor fluctuations. These fluctuations seem to follow a slight downward trend from the highest recorded rate of 0.36752 down to the lowest rate of 0.36589. However, without further computations or graphical visualization, this perceived trend might not be absolutely accurate as the variances are quite minor.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The dataset doesn't provide enough information to clearly establish any recurrent patterns, cycles, or seasonality. The frequency of data collection is every 5 minutes and the provided data is for a period of one day. Comprehensive seasonality analysis usually requires data collected over longer periods like, years, or months. Nonetheless, potential patterns may emerge if the data collected covers a longer period and includes consistent, repeated measurements.

Identification of Outliers

Outliers in a dataset are values that significantly deviate from the trend or expected range. In the given dataset, there doesn't appear to be any obvious outliers. The rates remain within a consistent band of fluctuations, with no instance of a sudden spike or drop that deviates greatly from the trend. Regular statistical or graphical methods can precisely identify these outliers if there are any.

In conclusion, it's important to note that while these initial conclusions can be gathered from manually scanning the dataset, for more accurate and detailed insights, it's crucial to perform more extensive statistical analyses or utilize time series analysis techniques.