Somoni Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend

    From the provided dataset, the exchange rate shows some fluctuations over the timeframe. The data starts at a rate of 0.12384 and ends at a rate of 0.12367. This shows a slight decreasing trend over the period.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Looking at the data, there do not appear to be obvious seasonality patterns. Seasonality is usually associated with regular intervals or specific times of the year. Given the data spans over a single day, and without further data about longer-term trends, it's difficult to determine seasonality from this dataset. However, finer analysis over smaller time intervals may show intra-day patterns, which would require more specific analysis.

    Outliers

    Given that exchange rate data is typically quite smooth unless influenced by major events or market fluctuations, most of the data provided does not have significant outliers. The exchange rates provided maintain a close range between a minimum of 0.12351 and a maximum of 0.12400, a difference of 0.00049 exchange units.

    Important Note

    It's important to note, this analysis does not take into account external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports which can significantly affect exchange rates. As per request, no future forecasts have been provided.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The data does not seem to show any drastic overall increases or decreases in the exchange rates. Looking at the values, the rate fluctuates between 0.1234 to 0.124 throughout. This suggests a relatively stable exchange rate over the period shown, despite some inherent fluctuations that are to be expected in such data due to the nature of the financial markets.

    Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

    Given the short time series (one day only), it is hard to determine seasonality or recurring patterns for the exchange rates. Extensive time series data would be needed for such characterizations, ideally covering multiple cycles of the frequency expected (for example, data for several years if looking for annual seasonality). However, by examining this data, there is no immediately noticeable intra-day seasonality or recurrent pattern.

    Noting any Outliers, or Instances where the Exchange Rate Differs Significantly

    There are no significant outliers noted in this data. The fluctuations in the rate conform within a tight range and thus, there are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general trend.

    Please note: any in-depth analysis or conclusions drawn may be limited in accuracy due to the relatively short period covered by this data. Longer time series, covering various market conditions and events, would allow for a more comprehensive understanding and more accurate patterns and trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Over the period shown, the exchange rate of TJS experienced slight fluctuations but generally remained stable. Observing from the given time series data, as of 2024-02-26 00:00:02 the exchange rate started at 0.12349. By the end of the period at 2024-02-26 23:55:02, the exchange rate slightly decreased to 0.12324 with a difference of 0.00025.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    If there are any seasonal patterns or recurring changes in the exchange rates, they are not readily apparent within the given dataset. The time period covered is less than a day, which makes identifying long-term patterns or trends more difficult. However, the data shows a few instances where rates slightly rise before falling again, but this doesn't seem to form a coherent pattern.

    Noting any outliers in the changes in exchange rates

    When looking at the values, most of the changes in the exchange rates are very slight. However, a small number of larger changes do occur. For example at 2024-02-26 06:20:02 the data shows a drop down to 0.1234 from the previous value of 0.12354. These larger changes, while still only fractions of a penny, are large compared to the usual changes and can be considered outliers. It's important to note that identifying these as significant outliers would depend on further statistical analysis and understanding of acceptable and usual fluctuations for this specific exchange rate.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    In the given dataset, the TJS exchange rate shows minor fluctuations over the period, but the overall trend seems relatively stable. If we consider the starting point at 0.12282 and the last point at 0.12327, there is a slight rise in the exchange rate. However, the variations within this range are marginal and mostly without a definite upward or downward trajectory.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not exhibit any clear patterns regarding the time of day or specific dates. The exchange rates rise and fall randomly and unpredictably. However, more in-depth analysis may require evaluation using a more advanced statistical model over a longer timeframe.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    As far as outliers are concerned, there is no significant discrepancy in the exchange rates that would indicate outliers. The variations in the rates are mostly in the same range of around 0.001. There doesn't appear to be any instance where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general pattern.

    Final Thoughts

    In conclusion, this analysis provides an overview of the exchange rates behavior over the provided period. The understanding of a stable overall trend, absence of clear recurring patterns, and the lack of significant outliers, can be useful as basis for future analyses. Keep in mind that this is a simple analysis and any decision based on this information should be taken with caution and additional, more in-depth and broader analysis should be considered.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Introduction

    The given dataset includes a time series of TJS exchange rates from February 19, 2024, to February 23, 2024. The frequency of observations is irregular, ranging from 1 hour to several hours. The exchange rates are given at a high precision of 5 decimal places. The primary intention of this analysis is to understand the overall trend, detect any patterns or seasonality, and identify any outliers.

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be relatively stable through these few days of data, with some fluctuations. Based on a higher to lower view, we notice a slight decrease in the rates initially, a mild increase somewhere in the middle, and then a dip, followed by another slight increase towards the end. However, there does not seem to be a strong increasing or decreasing trend in the rate for these few days, and the values hovered around the 0.123 mark.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In this dataset, identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns is somewhat challenging due to the short span of the data and the irregular observation intervals. However, we can see some daily fluctuations, which could be the effect of trading activities during day and night. Further observations and data from a longer period would strengthen this analysis.

    Noting Any Outliers

    The exchange rates consistently remain near the 0.123 mark, with slight fluctuations. The lowest observed rate is 0.12273, and the highest is 0.12384. The rate reaching these maximum and minimum values could be considered mild outliers, but they don't differ drastically from the general trend. As these are within typical daily fluctuations, they should not be considered significant outliers unless there is further information indicating these occurred due to unusual circumstances.

    World Events and Market Timing

    This analysis was performed with the express instruction to disregard external factors such as market timings, weekends, and world events, which could have significant effects on the exchange rates. Therefore, this analysis purely considers the numerical trends and patterns observable within the provided data set.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    After analyzing the data, no discernible trend can be determined due to the relatively steady exchange rates throughout the period shown. The exchange rate starts from 0.12277, goes up and down slightly, and finally ends at 0.12328. Most of the time, it fluctuates moderately within a narrow range (0.122 - 0.123).

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    The data does not exhibit any clear seasonality or recurring patterns over the given timeframe. The exchange rates fluctuate in an insignificant range without any noticeable cyclical movement. It is important to note that for strong claims on seasonality or pattern repetitions, data should ideally span a few years and be tested with statistical procedures like the Dickey-Fuller test.

    Outliers in the Dataset

    There is no significant outlier in this dataset that strays notably from the consistent range at which the exchange rates have been mainly confined. However, a minor outlier might be the slightly higher value of 0.12341 which is observed on 2024-02-23 at 10:20:03. Again, although it's the maximum value in the dataset, compared to the general trend, it is not a huge deviation.

    The above analysis only inspects the data you provided and does not take into account any external influences such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Also, as per your request, no future exchange rate forecast was made based on this data.