Tunisian Dinar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    After examining the dataset in detail, it seems that the overall trend of the TND exchange rate is moderately fluctuating, displaying slight increases and decreases over the period. The variance is limited, suggesting a measure of stability interspersed with short periods of fluctuation. This indicates a generally well-regulated and steady market condition over the time period represented in the data.

    Identification of Seasonality

    With the provided data, no conspicuous seasonality can be identified directly as the data spans only a single day. However, certain periods of the day seem to show more fluctuation than others. Particularly, there seem to be increased variances during specific hours of the day. Please note this pattern might be better understood with more data spanning across months or years to clearly emphasize any present seasonality.

    Outliers Observation

    When it comes to outliers, no extreme values are documented directly from this dataset. The exchange rate remains within a narrow range throughout the period. However, there exist several instances of minor upward or downward 'spikes', suggesting moments of increased buying or selling. Yet, these instances are short-lived, rapidly returning back to the prevailing rate.

    External Factors

    Given the limited fluctuation and absence of outliers or extreme swings, it suggests a potential impact of external factors. As requested, these factors such as the opening and closing hours of the market or major regional and international financial news or reports are not being considered during this analysis. However, it's worth noting that these factors often play a critical role in shaping exchange rate movement and would require a more detailed data set to include such external events to create a more complete analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    Upon evaluating the dataset, the TND exchange rates show a small, but generally consistent upward trend over the period captured in the dataset. The exchange rate begins at a value of 0.43427 and ends at 0.43503. Although the change in exchange rate is minute, interpreted at a larger scale, it may pose significant impacts.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    A cursory analysis may not explicitly reveal seasonality or recurring patterns as distinct periods of increases or decreases within a constant interval. However, the exchange rate appears to be more volatile during certain time periods, exhibiting both short-term increases and decreases. To attain a more accurate analysis, a more sophisticated time-series analysis that includes techniques such as autocorrelation and Fourier analysis could be employed to identify hidden periodic patterns.

    Outliers of Exchange Rates

    Given the provided data, there appear to be no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the predominant pattern or trends. The fluctuations observed, while consistent, do not seem to exceed an expected range according to basic statistical measures. Key outliers would be instances in which the exchange rate drastically increases or decreases beyond this typical range, and these do not seem to be present in the provided data.

    Please note that for a comprehensive understanding and analysis of financial data, factors such as market dynamics, economical events or precise time series models should be incorporated. Furthermore, the application of financial analytics tools would provide a more robust mechanism for identifying trends, patterns, and outliers.

    The report provided is based on elementary interpretation and should be utilized as a general overview rather than an in-depth analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Overall, the trend of the exchange rate in the dataset provided shows a minor and moderate increase. Starting from a value of about 0.43254, the exchange rate gradually rose, reached a peak of approximately 0.4337, followed by slight decreases and increases, with the final value being near 0.43275. These values indicate a positive and fluctuating trend over time.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Due to the nature of the dataset, it is quite challenging to comment on seasonality and recurring patterns solely from the given data. Seasonality often requires data from many cycles, possibly over several years to establish. However, some recurring patterns on a smaller scale, like intra-day fluctuations, can be noticed as the values rise and dip about cyclically throughout the day.

    Outliers or anomalies Identification

    In terms of anomalies or outliers in the dataset, no significant irregularities stand out. The exchange rate changes are gradual and smoothly varying, with no abrupt jumps or dips. Although there are slight increases and decreases at times, these are expected in financial data and do not seem to be extreme enough to be considered as outliers. Please note that this observation is a preliminary one, based purely on data given. A more detailed and precise analysis could potentially yield different results.

Summary of Last Week

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Starting from the 26th of January 2024 until the 23rd of February in the same year, it appears that the overall trend in the exchange rates shows a slight decrease, ending lower than they started. After rising on the 26th of January, the rates fell from 0.43318 to a lower point of 0.42945 on the 8th of February. They rose slightly to a peak of 0.43283 on the 20th before falling again to end at 0.43223 on the 23rd of February.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    There possibly seems to be a pattern where the exchange rate peak at certain times during a month. For example, at the start of February, the rate rises slightly before falling to a trough around the 8th or 9th. The rate then rises steeply before reaching a peak around mid-month, eventually falling towards the end of the month. This pattern repeats in the data provided.

    Noteworthy Outliers in Exchange Rates

    While there are no obvious major shocks or significant outliers to note in the given period, there were minor instances of the exchange rate differing from the general trend. For instance, on the 13th of February, the rate rises steeply to 0.43314, higher than the surrounding days. Conversely, on the 12th of February, the rate drops to a low point of 0.42853, lower than in the previous days.

    Please note that these findings are descriptive and simple observations from the given data. For a more robust and comprehensive analysis, statistical methodology and further quantitative analysis of the data are necessary, which would typically include advanced statistical techniques and modeling.

Summary of Yesterday

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon examining the data, the overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be slightly upward. This is noted by the fact that the earliest exchange rate stood at approximately 0.42929 while the last exchange rate stood at around 0.43223. Although there were fluctuation throughout the observed period, the exchanging rate ended higher than it started, indicating a somewhat increasing overall trend.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    The data indicates some recurring patterns in the exchange rates, although it's hard to identify a clear seasonality with the provided dataset. In general, the exchange rate quite often shows a dip which gets corrected relatively quickly, resulting in a wave-like pattern. However, these patterns do not seem to be tied to a specific time period or interval, indicating no clear seasonality trend.

    3. Outliers in Exchange Rates

    There are a few instances where the exchange rate differs noticeably from the general trend. For instance, the rate spikes to 0.43278, 0.43279, 0.43283, and 0.43281 within a relatively short time frame. There is not enough data to determine whether these peaks are outliers, or they are part of a larger trend. With that said, these instances could be further researched to determine what causes these significant differences.

    In conclusion, the exchange rates were observed to be slightly increasing overall. Some recurring patterns were identified as wave-like fluctuations in the rates but no clear seasonality. Notably, a few potential outliers were observed which would benefit from further examination.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The data provided lists time-series exchange rates for a period. After analyzing the data, there seems to be a micro-fluctuation trend in the given currency exchange rate. The exchange rate seems to slightly rise and fall within a small range, which indicates a relatively stable trend with very moderate inflation or deflation. There don't seem to be major continuous increases or decreases over the available period. However, the minor fluctuations should not be ignored while making financial decisions.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, several such patterns are evident in the data. We can notice some repetitions in the cyclical rise and fall of rates. These could be daily trading patterns typically influenced by the global foreign exchange market activities. However, with the limited dataset, it is not possible to ascertain weekly, monthly or yearly patterns.

    Outliers Analysis

    Regarding outliers, the dataset does not appear to contain significant abnormal exchange rates that would significantly differ from the overall observable trend - at least within the given timeframe. Most of the recorded rates lie within a close range of each other, indicating a stable currency exchange rate, with no apparent outliers based on the given dataset. This indicates that the exchange rate is quite stable and changed very slightly within this period.

    Please note, a deeper and more accurate analysis might require an extended dataset over a more extended period, including more volatile times and potential impactful events. This summary is based only on the data provided and does not consider external market factors or future forecasts.