Liberian Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    It appears the dataset is a time-series of exchange rates which is uniformly spaced at an interval of approximately 5 minutes. Given the data, the comprehensive analysis would incorporate understanding its trend, identifying potential recurring patterns (seasonality), and noting any significant deviations (outliers). Please note, external factors like market hours, weekends/holidays, and major financial news or reports will not be considered in this analysis. Also, a forecast for future rates will not be generated.

    Understanding the trends

    The data points are generally around the 0.00711 mark with minor fluctuations up and down. There is a visible slight increase from 0.00711 to 0.00713 around the 7:00 timestamp. However, it dips back to around 0.00711 and even further down to 0.0071 before 9:10 and then oscillates between 0.00708 to 0.00711 for the rest of the dataset. By this analysis, there doesn't seem to be a drastic increase or decrease in the exchange rates but minor fluctuations around the same value.

    Identifying seasonality

    Given that this dataset only represents a single day's worth of exchange rates at a 5-minute interval, determining seasonality is challenging. Seasonality is typically observed over a larger time frame (like an entire year or multiple years). However, within the scope of this dataset, we can see some slight recurring patterns such as an increase in exchange rates around 7:00, followed by a decrease and then minor oscillations for the rest of the day.

    Noting outliers

    Detecting outliers in such minimal fluctuations can be tricky as none of the exchange rates seem to be significantly deviating from the overall trend. To do this effectively, a more advanced statistical approach could be used to calculate the quartiles and interquartile range. Anything outside this range could then be considered an outlier. Given the provided dataset, and by observing the given values, any potential outliers are not immediately apparent.

    Overall Conclusion

    Examining this data, we can conclude that the exchange rates for this particular day remained somewhat stable with minute fluctuations up and down. To assert seasonality or detect outliers, a larger dataset spanning over a greater period of would be more insightful. Additionally, future big data analytical approaches might involve considering external factors such as market conditions, financial news and reports, as well as market opening/closing times.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    From the provided dataset on the LRD exchange rate over different timestamps, we can interpret the following trends and patterns:

    1. Trend Analysis

    The overall trend of the exchange rate seems to be fairly stable over the given period of observations. Initially, the exchange rate is at a steady 0.0071 but gradually extends up to 0.00713 before bouncing back to 0.00711. Throughout the dataset, there are minor fluctuations, but no trend of a general increase or decrease can be observed. This could potentially indicate a stable state in the economy or a slight fluctuation in the exchange rate market during the period.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From the dataset, it is challenging to explicitly identify any seasonality or recurring pattern in the fluctuating LRD exchange rate. Interestingly, two slight increases can be observed – first from 0.0071 to 0.00712, and later from 0.00711 to 0.00713. In both cases, the exchange rate bounced back to 0.00711 or 0.00712 soon after the increase. However, more data over extended periods might be required to confirm if these are seasonal changes or just periodic fluctuations.

    3. Outliers Analysis

    There are no significant outliers observed in the provided dataset, as the fluctuation in the exchange rate remains within a very tight range between 0.0071 and 0.00713. Generally, if an outlier was present, it would be indicated by a value that deviates considerably from the overall observed pattern. In this case, no such instance can be noted. However, it is essential to continuously monitor the exchange rate for any potential unusual or unexpected changes that might impact future trend analysis.

    It should further be noted that this analysis is a simplistic interpretation of the provided dataset, and the accuracy of the findings could significantly be improved by factoring in external elements such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, releases of key financial news and reports. Still, per your request, these factors were not considered in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend

    Upon examining the data provided for the exchange rates, it is evident that the rate has remained relatively stable over time. The exchange rate largely hovers around 0.00708 to 0.00710. There was only a slight decline from 0.00710 to 0.00708 towards the latter part of the dataset, however, this represents a very minimal decrease and the rate stays relatively stable for the most part.

    2. Seasonality Or Recurring Patterns

    As this is a 24-hour period data of an intraday exchange rate, there is not enough data to conclusively state anything about seasonality or recurring patterns. Generally, a longer time period (months to years) data is needed to determine seasonal effects or recurring patterns with a higher level of certainty. In this data set, there is no discernible seasonality or recurring pattern as the rate stays mostly stable.

    3. Outliers

    In terms of outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the trend, there do not appear to be any salient points to note within this data set. The variation in the exchange rate, as previously stated, is remarkably low, indicating that the exchange rate has maintained consistency. There are no significant spikes or dropdowns in the exchange rates during this period.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Analysis of Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the LRD exchange rate data provided shows that the rates seem to be relatively stable, with minor fluctuations. A slight decrease in the exchange rate can be seen from 0.00711 at the beginning to 0.00708 at the end of the period, but this shift is relatively minor, only a 0.42% decrease overall suggesting that the LRD is relatively stable during this time span.

    Seasonality and Recurring patterns

    The data does not cover a large enough time span to draw any definitive conclusions about seasonality or recurring patterns with a daily level of granularity. However, on a closer look, the routes seem to regularly cycle between slight increases and decreases on a day-to-day basis. This may suggest a level of volatility in the exchange rate, although the magnitude of these changes is small. Nevertheless, to identify clear seasonal trends, a longer time series would be necessary.

    Outliers

    Regarding outliers in the dataset, the LRD exchange rate does not show any significant deviation from the mean during the observed period. All values fall between 0.00704 and 0.00713, which means no exchange rate diverges drastically from the mean, suggesting there are no outliers in this dataset.

    External Factors

    Although you've asked not to consider them, it's worth noting that while this analysis does not consider external factors, they can play a significant role in shaping the exchange rate. Things such as market opening and closing hours, weekends and holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, can all impact the exchange rate. Future analysis may want to consider these, to obtain a more accurate insight into the drivers behind these fluctuations.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Analysis of the LRD Exchange Rate Time Series Data

    From the time-series data provided, each timestamp represents a given hour, and the corresponding LRD value is the exchange rate at that time. The exchange rates are between 0.00706 and 0.0071.

    Trends in the Exchange Rates

    Upon close examination of the provided dataset, the trend in the exchange rates seems to be relatively stable. The rates fluctuate within a narrow range and there is no pronounced upward or downward slope over the given time frame. Specifically, the rates largely oscillate between 0.00706 and 0.0071, reflecting mild volatility in the exchange rates over this period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    An analysis of the seasonality or the recurring patterns in the exchange rates is not possible without additional data or a longer time series. However, given that the data involves 24-hour intervals, any possible daily seasonality is levelled out. It would require data points over larger intervals, such as weeks or months, to reliably discern any potential seasonal patterns.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    The dataset does not appear to have any notable outliers. An outlier in this context would be a rate that significantly deviates from the established range. In reality, all rates lie tightly between 0.00706 and 0.0071, indicating that there are no extreme variations or abnormalities in these data points.

    Given the consistent adherence to the mentioned range, it can be inferred that the exchange rate behaves in a predictable manner, maintaining a sense of stability. However, please note that this is a simplified interpretation without considering a multitude of other potential influencing factors.

    It's worth noting as well that understanding exchange rate behaviours is a complex task that usually entails considering geopolitical influences, economic indicators and a host of other factors. The interpretation given here is based solely on the provided data points, which offer a rather short timespan and limited variation, offering just a glimpse into the possible behaviours of the LRD exchange rate.

    As is, the data does not allow for making detailed forecasts or determining external influences such as market hours or financial news. However, it provides a minimalistic insight into the evident stability of the exchange rates during the depicted period.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon analysis of the provided time-series financial data, we observe that the exchange rate of LRD has demonstrated a reasonably consistent pattern over the observed period. The exchange rate starts from a value of 0.00707 at the timestamp 2024-02-23 00:00:02 and remains the same until 2024-02-23 02:45:02. There is a slight increase observed in the exchange rate to 0.00708 at 2024-02-23 02:45:02 which lasts till 2024-02-23 04:55:02. The exchange rate then dips slightly to 0.00707 and fluctuates a bit ending on 0.00706 at 2024-02-23 07:35:02. However, this rate climbs back to 0.00707 at 2024-02-23 08:10:03 and continues to rise to 0.00708 and 0.00709 by 2024-02-23 10:10:03. Post which, there is a very minor decrement back to 0.00708 for the remainder of the observed time period.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Since the data provided only spans a single day, it is challenging to accurately identify seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. However, there is mild volatility observed in the data, with the LRD exchange rate slightly increasing in the early hours of the day, decreasing during late morning, and then slightly increasing again during mid-day.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

    As per the data provided, there are no noticeable outliers or instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the expected trend. The changes in the rate are relatively minute and tend to follow a steady trend, which smoothens out to demonstrate very minor incremental and decremental adjustments only. Thus, the dataset does not display any drastic or unpredictable fluctuations in the exchange rates.

    It is essential to remember that exchange rate movements are influenced by a wide variety of factors, and subtle fluctuations within a single day's data might not carry significant implications. Long term trends, respective to multiple months or years of data, are often more informative when analyzing currency exchange rates.