Liberian Dollar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the dataset given, there is a relatively steady exchange rate with minor fluctuations, suggesting a stable market for the LRD over the period observed. The exchange rate starts at 0.00709 and ends at 0.00706 which indicates there is a very slight depreciation of the LRD during the period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

Given the nature of the time series data, it is difficult to discern any high-frequency seasonality (like an intraday pattern) due to the relatively steady rate. However, there seem to be slight movement in the downward direction, indicating a possible general trend but not necessarily a seasonal one. Further analysis would be needed with more dataset to conclude about seasonality or recurring patterns.

Outliers in the Data

Within the given dataset, there are no significant exchange rate changes from the general trend which implies no notable outliers in this data. There is a lack of extreme fluctuations which signifies a stable foreign exchange situation for the LRD over this data period.

Note

This analysis disregards the potential effects of external events such as changes in market conditions, political events, or the release of significant financial reports which could have effect on the foreign exchange rate. Should these factors be considered, the results of the analysis may differ.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the exchange rate seems to be relatively stable. The exchange rate starts from 0.00707 at the beginning of the period and ends at 0.00709 at the end of the period. In between, the rate oscillates between these two values. It peaks at 0.00711 but quickly stabilizes back to the 0.00709-0.00710 range. The exchange rate does not show a strong increasing or decreasing trend within this period.

Seasonality Analysis

In terms of daily seasonality, there is no clear pattern based on the provided data. The fluctuations in rates are spread uniformly across the day without any particular time concentrating higher or lower rates. For deeper seasonality patterns, data for a longer period (e.g., data over multiple months or years) would be required.

Outliers

Within the given period, there are no clear outliers in the data. This indicates a relatively stable exchange rate within the analyzed time frame, with the rate fluctuating around a steady mean. The highest rate within this period was 0.00711, and the lowest was 0.00707. This narrow range shows the absence of significant outliers.

Note: For more comprehensive conclusions, it would be beneficial to analyze a larger set of data. The given data of a single day may not capture all the dynamics involved in exchange rate changes. For example, weekly and monthly seasonal patterns, as well as reactions to significant financial events, could become clear by analyzing large-scale data. However, this was clearly mentioned to not consider in the given task.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

General Trend of LRD Exchange Rate On 2024-04-23

The LRD exchange rate for the data provided is very stable. The rate starts at 0.00709 and there is not much volatile movement seen over the course of the day. There is a very minor increase at 04:00:02, when the Lrd increases to 0.0071, suggesting a very stable exchange rate.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the data is just for a single day, it's hard to extract any noticeable seasonality or recurring patterns, as those usually become apparent over a longer period of time. However, no specific pattern is evident within this daily data. The exchange rate remains fairly unchanged, suggesting no significant intraday seasonality on this particular day.

Outliers

In terms of outliers within the dataset, there is a minimal fluctuation between the values 0.00709 and 0.0071. These are arguably negligible and can be attributed to normal market activity rather than outlining major deviations from the trend. The exchange rate for this particular day is very stable and doesn't deviate much from the said values, indicating no outliers in this particular dataset.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Introduction

The provided data consists of timestamped exchange rates (LRD). Notably, this is a time series data type, which will provide insights into how the exchange rate has moved over time. A comprehensive analysis involves understanding the overall trend, spotting any seasonality, and identifying outliers.

Overall Trend

From an up-close examination of the data, the exchange rates seem to remain relatively stable over the time series. There's a subtle change from 0.00711 to 0.00709 - a slight decrease across the time series. This overall trend of slight decrease suggests a degree of stability in the rates with marginal deflation.

Seasonality Pattern

Regarding seasonality, the data set doesn't seem to display a clear seasonal pattern due to its high stability. High-frequency oscillations or repeating patterns would indicate a presence of seasonality in the data, but the LRD rate here remains mostly constant.

Outliers Detection

Anomalous values or outliers, in this context, would be defined as significant departures from the general trend or repeating patterns. In the given dataset, since the LRD rate remains steady around 0.0071 and 0.00709, any significant departure from these figures can be noted as an outlier. However, the prevailing rate is very stable, so there appears to be no prominent outliers.

Conclusion

This exchange rate (LRD) analysis suggests a minor decrease in the rate over the specified range, with a prevailing lack of seasonality or notable exceptions. The remarkable consistency of the rates indicates a stable financial scenario during these timestamps.

Please note, however, this analysis is solely based on the provided data and does not take into consideration any potential external influencers like financial news, events, weekends, holidays, market hours, and similar factors. For a more comprehensive view and understanding of why the rate has behaved the way it did during this period, such factors would ideally need to be considered.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall trend

The overall trend in exchange rates for the given period seems to be relatively stable. Starting from a rate of 0.00704 on 2024-03-22, the rates primarily hover around the 0.0070 - 0.0071 range throughout the period. There are fluctuations, evidently in the fourth decimal point. A noticeable peak value of 0.00785 on 2024-03-28 should be noted, but the exchange rate quickly settles back to its usual range soon after. The highest rate towards the end of the period is 0.00729 on 2024-04-18, and the dataset ends with an exchange rate of 0.00711.

Identifying patterns and seasonality

On a general scale, a particular pattern in the fluctuation of rates cannot be distinctly pointed out from the data given. Due to the narrow range of fluctuation (around the 0.0070 - 0.0071 range), it is challenging to establish a specific recurring pattern within this dataset. Considering the number of values recorded per day, there doesn't seem to be a systematic change that aligns with a specific time of the day.

Outliers

The most significant outliers in this dataset occur on 2024-03-28 and 2024-04-18. On 2024-03-28, the exchange rate spikes to 0.00785, which is the maximum in this dataset and deviates from the central tendency of these data points. Similarly, on 2024-04-18, the exchange rises to 0.00729, which also stands out from the bulk of data. However, after these outliers, the exchange rate quickly reverts to the usual range, indicating that these could be momentary fluctuations rather than a lasting trend change.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Comprehensive Analysis of Exchange Rates (LRD)

After performing a deep-dive analysis of the time-series data provided, various insights have been drawn:

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The dataset illustrates a mostly stable exchange rate range from 0.00711 to 0.00717 for the majority of the duration. However, there is a noticeable spike on 2024-04-18, where the rate accelerated to 0.00732 before decreasing to 0.00729. Post this spike, the rate returned to the range of 0.0071.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

The dataset does not exhibit clear seasonality or recurring patterns over the given period. The exchange rates seem to fluctuate narrowly within a tight range, making it difficult to discern a consistent pattern. However, a daily trend can be noticed where the rates tend to remain steady for most hours of the day, without exhibiting significant jumps in the values.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

One distinctive outlier from the overall trend is observed on 2024-04-18, where the exchange rate increases sharply to 0.00732 and then 0.00729. These values are significantly higher compared to the values before and after this date, where the rates were around the range of 0.0071's.

Please note that this analysis is strictly based on the given dataset and does not consider any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Disclaimer

This analysis does not forecast future rates and is only a representation of the past pattern of the exchange rates based on the provided dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data Overview

The provided dataset encompasses timestamps and corresponding exchange rates (LRD). The data spans from 2024-04-19 00:00:02 to 2024-04-19 14:55:01. The frequency of data points varies, and the exchange rates range between 0.00711 and 0.00714.

Overall Trend

An initial overview doesn't reveal any drastic fluctuations in the exchange rates. They relatively remain stable within the range specified, with minute variations throughout. There isn't any evident and significant long-term upward or downward overall trend observable in the given time frame; instead, the value hovers marginally around a central value.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In the given dataset, there aren't apparent seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate seems to vary randomly within a narrow range. Minute patterns may exist, but they aren't easy to determine within this one-day period dataset, and further analysis with more extensive data would be needed to confirm any such insights.

Outliers

In this data, no considerable outliers exist. The exchange rates all fall within a close range and don’t deviate significantly from the trend. It indicates a stable day without significant unexpected fluctuations in the LRD exchange rate.