Somali Shilling Forecast

Follow Somali Shilling Forecast 2024-04-26

2024-04-25

Summary of Yesterday

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Overall Trend Of The Exchange Rates

The exchange rates data provided follows a relatively stable trend. It started at a value of 0.0024 from the timestamp '2024-04-25 00:00:02' until it slightly dropped to 0.00239 at '2024-04-25 01:15:02'. The rate then maintained this value until the end of the provided dataset at '2024-04-25 23:55:02'. The pattern suggests a very nominal decline followed by a long period of stability without noteworthy fluctuations.

Seasonality Or Recurring Patterns

With the given dataset, it is hard to discern any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates due to the limited timeframe it covers and essentially constant rate. Further analysis over a longer period or with a higher variation of exchange rates would be necessary to accurately determine any such patterns.

Outliers Or Significant Deviations

In the dataset provided, no significant outliers or deviations from the established trend were detected. The only slight deviation in the dataset is the aforementioned change from 0.0024 to 0.00239, which, although present, is exceptionally small and therefore may not be considered a significant deviation. The exchange rate remains at the mark of 0.00239 for the majority of the period covered by the data.

Please note that this analysis is based only on the dataset provided and does not account for external economic events or market conditions that may also impact exchange rates.

2024-04-24

Summary of Yesterday

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Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon reviewing your dataset, the overarching trend of the SOS exchange rates across the time-period provided is relatively stable. The exchange rate is constant at 0.00239 for most of the time period. It fluctuates to 0.0024 at the 2024-04-24 06:20:02 timestamp and remains that way for the rest of the period. As such, there is a marginal increase in the exchange rate during this period, but generally, the exchange rate remains considerably stable.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Observing the dataset once more, we fail to identify any specific seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates, considering the marginal fluctuation reported. The dataset showcases a consistent rate throughout the duration, which implies a lack of meaningful cyclical or seasonal patterns.

Outliers in the Data

Ranging from the given data, no outliers exist in our observations. The changes in the exchange rates are minor and consistent. Hence, it is fair to infer that the exchange rates have maintained stability throughout the period specified, resulting in a lack of significant outliers.

Please bear in mind these results are reliant on the data provided and on the assumptions mentioned above.

2024-04-23

Summary of Yesterday

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1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

From the dataset provided, we can deduce that the exchange rates have remained almost consistent over the entire period. The SOS exchange rate started at 0.0024 and remained that way until the 09:05:02 timestamp on 2024-04-23 when it dropped slightly to 0.00239. From then on, the rate stayed at this level with no further changes detected.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Given the lack of variation in the SOS exchange rates' values across the timestamps in the dataset, it is challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. Any fluctuations observed seem to arise at irregular intervals, which makes it hard to determine any cyclical pattern or seasonality. Since the rate has remained mostly stable throughout this timeframe, we can say there's no evident evidence of seasonality based on the dataset provided.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

As per the data, there is one instance only where the exchange rate exhibits a notable change. Specifically, the rate drops slightly from 0.0024 to 0.00239 on the 09:05:02 timestamp of 2024-04-23. This change, while minimal, is noticeable given the minimal variation in the dataset. However, it does not represent a significant shift from the overall trend. Since there's no clear trend or seasonality, this point is not exactly an "outlier" in the traditional sense, yet it's the only point of change in an otherwise consistent dataset.

Conclusion

Based on the data provided, throughout the period shown, the exchange rates have remained generally stable with only a single, slight drop detected. The exact cause for this drop or its potential implications are not clear from this dataset alone. It is recommended to monitor the exchange rates over a longer period or incorporate additional data elements to provide more context for these findings.

2024-04-22

Summary of Last Month

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Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From the data provided, the exchange rate of the SOS was extremely stable across the entire period. The exchange rate remained at 0.0024 for almost every timestamp and only one recorded instance increased slightly to 0.00241. This suggests a consistent and stable exchange rate without any significant upward or downward trends during the time frame given.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Due to the consistency of the exchange rate throughout the data, there isn't a discernible seasonal pattern or regular fluctuations that might characterize recurrent behaviors. Usually, one would look for periodic increases or decreases in exchange rates that might correspond to certain times of day, days of the week, or months of the year. However, in this dataset, the SOS exchange rate remained largely at 0.0024, showing no signs of cyclical or seasonal movements.

Identification of Outliers

The data provided has only one observable outlier; that is, a moment where the exchange rate deviates from the primarily stable rate of 0.0024. On 2024-04-22 at 08:35:03, the exchange rate rose slightly to 0.00241 before returning to 0.0024. Other than this single instance, the rate remained mainly constant, suggesting an overall lack of volatility during this period.

The time series provided is a clear example of exchange rate stability with little variance. A constant exchange rate can have several causes, but without additional data, it is not prudent to speculate on the reasons behind this constant rate.

Please note, as per your instructions, this analysis has been completed without considering external events or generating future forecasts.

2024-04-21

Summary of Last Week

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Overall Trend

After a detailed review, it's noticeable that the SOS exchange rate shows minor fluctuation over the given period. The exchange rate seems to hover around the 0.00237 to 0.00242 bracket. Despite this minor oscillation, the rate appears to be relatively stable and doesn't demonstrate a significant increase or decrease trend.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

An analysis of the presented data does not highlight any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate seems to fluctuate without a specific pattern or rhythm, instead of showing a tendency to move in cycles or at regular intervals.

Outliers

Given the data set and the relatively stable exchange rate over this period, there are no major outliers to note. The rate fluctuates within a relatively tight range and any deviation from this range is minimal and only temporary before returning to the typical rate range.

Additional Notes

The data provided doesn't show any significant variation based on typical market fluctuation hours or specific financial announcement periods, mainly because we did not delve into hourly or daily rate changes.
Although it's not required for this analysis, it's worth noting that understanding external factors such as the release of key financial reports, holidays, and significant geopolitical events could further enrich this analysis.

Conclusion

The SOS exchange rate appears to have been reasonably stable over the studied period, with only minor fluctuations. There doesn't appear to be a clear trend toward increasing or decreasing rates over time. Similarly, no specific seasonal or repetitive patterns have emerged from the data. Future analysis could benefit from consideration of external factors influencing exchange rates. Also, a more micro-level time frame could bring up more insights.

2024-04-20

Summary of Yesterday

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Analysis of the Provided Time-Sequence Data on SOS Exchange Rates:

The provided data consists of a time series of SOS exchange rates from April 15, 2024, to April 19, 2024. Each timestamp denotes the SOS exchange rate at that particular time. Here is a high-level analysis of the data:

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates:

Based on the given data, the SOS exchange rates appear to be quite stable over the analysed period. Starting from 0.00241 on 2024-04-15 01:00:02, the rate occasionally fluctuates very slightly to 0.00242 and 0.00240 but immediately returns to the initial rate of 0.00241, maintaining a relatively consistent level throughout. This lack of substantial variation suggests a stable exchange market for SOS over the observed time period.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

Within the available dataset, the SOS exchange rate does not exhibit notable seasonality or recurring patterns. The rate primarily hovers around 0.00241, with minimal fluctuations to 0.00242 and 0.00240 that do not seemingly follow a regular, predictable pattern. Given the short span of this dataset (only around four days), it's also important to note that any detected seasonality or recurring patterns would require further data for proper validation.

3. Noteworthy Outliers:

With the given information, no significant outliers are apparent in the SOS exchange rate data. The slight deviations to 0.00242 and 0.00240 are within a reasonable range given the predominantly consistent rates observed. These minor fluctuations may be due to normal market operations, and they swiftly return to the baseline rate, not causing substantial discrepancy from the general trend.

In conclusion, the SOS exchange rate appears to be relatively stable throughout the timeframe of April 15, 2024, to April 19, 2024. There are no discernable recurring patterns or outliers found in this period. It's worth mentioning that this analysis is based on the limited data provided, and a longer span of data is recommended for comprehensive market trend analysis.