Somali Shilling Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Based on the data provided, the comprehensive analysis is as follows:

    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The exchange rates provided do not show a drastic change in the chosen time period. The dataset consists of 305 entries of which the majority of the rates are 0.00238 (159 times) while the rest are 0.00237 (146 times). The fluctuations are slight and it can be said that the rates remained relatively stable over the observation period.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Due to the limited variability of the exchange rate, it is challenging to identify any seasonal changes or recurring patterns. The data fluctuates between 0.00237 and 0.00238, without showing an obvious cycle or pattern. It's important to note that this analysis is limited to the data provided, and a longer time-period may be required to accurately identify seasonal trends.

    Noting Any Outliers

    Due to the consistency in the exchange rate, there do not appear to be any outliers within this dataset. The rates stayed within the bracket of 0.00237 and 0.00238 without any exceptions, so no extreme variations were noted.

    This analysis is based purely on the given time-series data without considering any external factors such as market opening and closing hours, weekends or holidays, and the release of any key financial news or reports.

    A deeper analysis or forecast may require consideration of those external factors, in addition to other data such as corresponding rates from other currencies, global political/economic events during the given time period, etc. However, as per request, these factors are not considered in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of the Exchange Rate Data

    The given data represents exchange rates (specifically, the SOS exchange rate) at different timestamps. The entire dataset covers a span from 02:37am on February 28, 2024, to 11:55pm on the same day, and although there is some degree of minute-to-minute fluctuation, the overall trend and notable features are valuable for analysis.

    Overall Trend

    The exchange rate starts at 0.00237 at 02:37am, and for most part of the morning until early afternoon it remains constant. At 02:50pm, the rate sees a slight increase to 0.00238. The rate remains at 0.00238 for the majority of the afternoon and early evening, before dipping back to 0.00237 after 09:05pm. It then fluctuates between 0.00237 and 0.00238 until the end of the day. This data suggests that the exchange rate throughout February 28, 2024, was relatively stable, with minor fluctuations between 0.00237 and 0.00238. The exact trend and frequency of these fluctuations could provide more information about potential regular patterns in the data.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The day seems to have a consistent pattern – a steady exchange rate in the morning, a slight increase in the afternoon, a steady high rate for the early portion of the evening, and then a return to the original rate by late night. This suggests a daily cycle in the exchange rate, though further analysis would be needed to confirm this, particularly with data sets from multiple days. Particularly, the timing of the rate increase to 0.00238 around 02:50pm and subsequent decrease to 0.00237 around 09:05pm each day could indicate specific market behaviors tied to these times.

    Outliers

    Despite the slight fluctuations between 0.00237 and 0.00238, the fact that the rate did not stray from these two figures throughout the day's data suggests there are no major outliers in the set. We don't see any drastic dips or spikes in the rates. This is indicative of a relatively stable day for this particular exchange rate, without unexpected disturbances affecting the rate.

    Conclusion

    This analysis gives an overview of the exchange rate behavior on February 28, 2024. The rate appears to be quite stable overall, with a slight daily cycle apparent in the data. This provides a good foundation for predicting the rate's behavior, although more data would be needed to confirm trends and patterns.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    After scrutinizing the time-series data, it can be observed that the exchange rates remain largely stable throughout the provided period. The rate mostly floats around 0.00236, with a slight fluctuation to 0.00237 occurring at certain intervals. Key spikes or dramatic dips are not observable within this dataset, signifying a possible stable period for this particular exchange rate within the captured timeframe.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it's challenging to pinpoint substantial traits from the data given the stability of the rates over the period. The minor fluctuation from 0.00236 to 0.00237 doesn't display any specific pattern relating to the time of the day, day of the week or other possible seasonal aspects. This lack of observable cyclic behaviour indicates that, within the provided timeframe, the exchange rate may not be heavily influenced by standard cyclical elements.

    Outliers Identification

    Given that the data remains within the tight 0.00236 - 0.00237 range across the period, it appears that the dataset does not contain any significant outliers. The exchange rate is consistent without any sudden and significant rises or drops that would suggest an anomaly or outlier. Consequently, there are no instances within this data where the exchange rate deviates substantially from the established range.

    In conclusion, the provided exchange rate data shows a largely stable trend within the period specified, with minor fluctuations not forming a discernible recurring pattern and no significant outliers present.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of SOS Exchange Rate Dataset

    Time series data for the exchange rates of SOS over time, specifically between January 26, 2024, to February 23, 2024, was analyzed. The main objectives were to understand the overall trend, identify any seasonality or recurring patterns, and note any significant anomalies or outliers. These outcomes are obtained without considering any specific events, external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news/reports, or predicting future rates.

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Overall, the exchange rates for SOS appear to remain fairly stable throughout the period. The rate oscillates between 0.00234 and 0.00238 with marginal fluctuations. There is a slight increase around February 5th and 13th reaching up to 0.00238 but it recedes immediately. There is no concrete evidence indicating a consistent increasing or decreasing trend over this timeframe. The data varies slightly but returns frequently to around 0.00236.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The data does not seem to exhibit any strong seasonality or recurring patterns. The changes in the exchange rate appear somewhat random without any clear cyclical changes that repeat at specific intervals. One could assume the slight spike in the rates during February 5th and 13th to be a pattern but the data available is not sufficient to confirm this as a recurring event or merely a coincidence.

    3. Outliers or Significant Anomalies

    Throughout the period, the rates remain within a small range and no unusual spikes or dips can be identified, i.e., there don't appear to be any significant outliers or anomalies in the dataset. All the fluctuations seem to be within the expected range based on general fluctuations seen throughout the period.

    In conclusion, during the period from January 26, 2024, to February 23, 2024, the SOS exchange rate remained relatively stable with minor variations, exhibit no strong patterns of seasonality or recurrence and contains no significant outliers. For robust conclusions and to uncover deeper insights, one may require a larger dataset covering a longer time frame or additional supporting data that might impact the exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of the Time-Series Data

    The provided dataset lists the exchange rates (SOS) at different timestamps. After detailed examination, the following observations have been made:

    1. General Trend

    The exchange rate data provided generally appears to be stable. Most of the time, the exchange rate remains at 0.00236. There are moments where it increases slightly to 0.00237, but then returns back to the prior rate. Furthermore, towards the end of the dataset, the rate appears to decrease to 0.00235, before it increases back to 0.00236. Therefore, the overall exchange rate can be characterized as having slight fluctuations around a central rate of 0.00236.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    After reviewing the dataset, there doesn't seem to be a strong evidence of seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, since the rates are largely stable over time with only minor variations. However, further statistical analysis could reveal subtle, hidden patterns that may not be immediately obvious.

    3. Outliers

    As the dataset is stable and there are no significant fluctuations in the exchange rates, no notable outliers have been identified. The minor fluctuations in the exchange rate do not deviate considerably from the average rate and are not significantly different from the surrounding data points.

    In conclusion, the overall trend of the exchange rate provided in the dataset is relatively stable with slight fluctuations of minimal magnitude. Detecting any clear seasonality or recurring patterns based on the provided dataset is challenging, and no significant outliers have been identified.

    Note, this analysis remains within the scope of the dataset provided and has not factored in external influences such as market dynamics, financial news, and economic indicators, as per your instruction.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall trend of the exchange rates

    Given the provided time-series data for the specified period, it is evident that the exchange rate (SOS) has been extremely stable. The value remains constant at 0.00236, indicating that there is neither an increasing nor a decreasing trend. This might be due to consistent economic conditions or effective currency control measures in place during those intervals.

    Seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

    In the analysis of the dataset, we could not find any seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate remains steady at 0.00236 across all timestamps without any apparent fluctuations or repetitive patterns. This lack of seasonality suggests that no specific time of the day or cycle affects the currency exchange rate within the time frame of the presented data.

    Outliers in the data

    When it comes to potential outliers or instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from its typical value, the data presents no such instances. As the value of the exchange rate stays constant throughout the entire dataset, we cannot identify any outliers, and therefore, the data is referred to as consistent.

    Please note that this analysis is purely based on the data provided, without consideration of any external market factors, specific events, or upcoming news that might have an impact on the exchange rates.