Jersey Pound Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overview of the Exchange Rate Trend

    At a glance, the exchange rate from the provided financial data appears to follow a constant fluctuation pattern. There is a minimal but observable overall increase in the JEP exchange rates throughout the data period. The rates started from 1.7195 at the start of the period and ended at 1.71435, not considering minor fluctuations. This suggests a macro increasing trend despite intra-period decreases and increases. It is noteworthy that the increase is very slight compared to the intra-period rate fluctuation observed.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Looking at the provided timestamp, the data ranges within a single day, making it quite challenging to discern any possible seasonality or recurring patterns since such patterns often occur across more extended periods. However, the dataset seems to show a consistent volatility demonstrating a certain rhythm, although not indicative of daily seasonality. The rate does not appear to be subject to routine spikes or dips at specific points or intervals throughout the day. The lack of discernible patterns may be partly due to the fact that exchange rates are influenced by many factors, making them unpredictable in nature.

    3. Outliars

    Given the consistent fluctuation of the JEP exchange rates without pronounced peaks or dips, it would appear that there are no significant outliers. However, a more exhaustive statistical model would be needed to identify less obvious outliers definitively. A significant deviation from the common range could be an indication of an outlier. However, it's crucial to keep in mind that in financial markets, what could be seen as outliers might be the result of specific market events or news.

    Conclusion

    In closing, the data illustrates a volatile but generally incrementing trend in JEP exchange rates through the period. There are no apparent patterns or seasonality, perhaps due to the short time frame observed. Similarly, there seem to be no explicit outliers, although a more detailed analysis would be beneficial.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Looking at the dataset, the JEP exchange rate seems to be fluctuating moderately throughout the range of data. On closer inspection, we find that the rate starts from approximately 1.71941 and ends around 1.71916. Despite the fluctuations in between, the starting and ending points are nearly similar, suggesting overall stability in the exchange rate over the period shown. However, slight gradual increases and decreases can be observed at different points in the data.

    Seasonality and Recurring Pattern Analysis

    Given the time-limited and relatively linear nature of the data, discerning seasonality or recurring patterns requires a deeper statistical analysis which can't be concluded directly from the dataset. Although there are times of increased volatility, they do not necessarily constitute a recurring pattern. Extended observations or a larger dataset would be needed to properly ascertain any seasonality.

    Outliers and Variations

    • In the timestamp '2024-02-28 20:55:02', there is a significant decrease in exchange rates to 1.71938 from the previous rate of 1.72279. This difference is notably higher than the difference observed between other consecutive timestamps and can be considered as an outlier.
    • In the timestamp '2024-02-28 02:15:02' there is a sharp increase in the exchange rate from previous which increases even more in the following timestamps up to '2024-02-28 03:55:02'. This divergence from the normal range could be considered the start of a higher rate period.

    Remember this analysis doesn't take into account external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of financial news and reports, which could explain some of these variations.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall trend of the exchange rates

    After my careful review of the dataset, I discerned that the exchange rates, on average, have fluctuated with a very small range between 1.710-1.713. This depicts a relatively stable trend in the exchange rate. There are slight increases and decreases across the time shown in the data; however, there doesn't appear to be a clear continuous upward or downward trend in these changes.

    Seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

    In regards to any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates, the information provided is probably not extensive enough to definitively prove recurrent behaviour. Nevertheless, there isn't an apparent repetitive pattern within this single-day data. Hence, at least based on this dataset, it is difficult to infer that there is any significant seasonality present in the JEP exchange rate.

    Outliers in exchange rates

    The exchange rates seem to remain within a relatively stable range for most of the time. However, there are certain data points where the rates increase or decrease slightly more significantly. At timestamp 2024-02-26 13:05:03, the exchange rate drops to a minimum of 1.70984 and at timestamp 2024-02-26 21:05:02, the rate increases to a maximum of 1.71341. But even these extreme numbers do not deviate significantly from the average, and they appear to be normal fluctuations rather than true outliers.

    While it's important to note that this analysis is based on a single day of data, it provides a solid estimate of the exchange rate behavior. Reviewing more data over a longer period could provide a deeper understanding of the trend, seasonality, and outliers.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis of the Exchange Rate

    Upon observing the provided dataset, there doesn't seem to be a consistent trend in the exchange rate of JEP over the given period. The rate starts at 1.71063 and ends at 1.70732 but with lots of fluctuations in between. The highest value reached was 1.71557 and the lowest was 1.68956, indicating quite some variability. While there is no apparent escalating or deescalating linear trend, it's evident that the rates heavily fluctuated over time.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Understanding seasonality in exchange rate time series data will require data for a more extended period than presented here. However, from the provided data, no explicit seasonal or recurring patterns can be discerned. Changes in the exchange rate appear to be more random and spiky, indicative of the inherent volatility of currency exchange rates.

    Identification of Outliers

    The identification of outliers in such a data set would typically require statistical analysis beyond mere observation. However, some potential outliers can be observed visually. For example, the lowest record of 1.68956 drops significantly compared to the neighboring data points, suggesting it could be an outlier. Another notable instance is when the rate reaches its peak at 1.71557, which is again significantly higher than the steady rates observed just before or after this peak. This deviation from the relatively stable pattern makes these points potential outliers./p>

    To confirm if these or any other points are indeed outliers, advanced statistical analysis is needed using techniques like the Interquartile Range (IQR) or Z-score methods for outlier detection.

    External Factors

    While other external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports may indeed influence the exchange rates quite significantly, such an analysis is beyond the scope of the given dataset and requires cross-referencing with other sources of data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Analysis of the overall trend of the exchange rates

    If we look at the exchange rates over the period provided, we can notice that the rates have been fluctuating. The exchange rate started from 1.69747 to a maximum peak of 1.71054 and finally downturned at 1.70732. However, overall there appears to be a general increase, suggesting that the value of JEP has been on an upward trend over these past few days.

    2. Seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

    As for recurring patterns or seasonality, time series analysis is required, which involves complex statistical techniques. However, simply by reading the data, no clear pattern or seasonality can be observed within this short period. The fluctuations of the exchange rate seem sporadic in nature over the period observed, suggesting that the rates are impacted more by day-to-day factors rather than any long term cyclical pattern.

    3. Outliers within the data

    From a cursory glance, it looks like there are several moments during this period where the exchange rate fluctuates more rapidly and may be considered outliers. On 2024-02-20 21:00:02, there was a drastic jump in the exchange rate from 1.70126 to 1.70831, the highest increase within an hour during the entire period under consideration. Similarly, the drop from 1.71054 at 03:00:02 to 1.70999 at 04:00:02 on 2024-02-21, within an hour, was also substantial.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Upon examining the provided time series data, it's observable that the exchange rates show a slight general increase between the initial rate of 1.70483 to the last rate of 1.7075 across the period shown. However, the increase isn't consistently linear, demonstrating various fluctuations throughout the same time range.

    Periodic or Seasonality Trends

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, a definite or pronounced pattern in the dataset isn't visible on the immediate analysis. In case such patterns exist, more advanced statistical techniques or a larger dataset might be needed to formally identify them. In the time series financial data provided, hourly or daily patterns might not be evident without a more detailed analysis. However, on the broad note, what can be concluded is that periods of relatively stable rates are interspersed with minor fluctuating spikes and dips.

    Outliers or Significant Variances

    Focusing on potential outliers or significant variances from the trend isn't particularly prominent in this case. Thetime series graph of the dataset would typically manifest excessive difference in peaks or troughs if there were such instances, which isn't the case here. The exchange rates, although they waver through the time frame, not once do they deviate dramatically from the trend noticed.

    External factor considerations

    As instructed, no external factors like market timings, weekends, holidays, or key financial news/releases have been taken into account during the analysis. Therefore, any impact these elements may have would not be reflected in this interpretation.