Dominican Peso Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rate data points toward a slight decrease in the value of the exchange rates over the provided timeframe. The data shows that the exchange rate started at 0.02331 at the earliest recorded timestamp, and ultimately ended at 0.02325 - a small but apparent downward trend. It should be noted that while there were momentary increases in the value, the consistent trend has been a slow decay in the value.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon analysis, there does not appear to be a significant seasonality or recurring pattern within the given dataset. The exchange rates change apparently randomly throughout different periods of the day. This pattern seems more reflective of typical market fluctuations rather than any distinct seasonality pattern being in play. Overall, the data does not exhibit consistent peaks and troughs at regular intervals that would suggest a seasonal effect.

Noting Any Outliers

The data does not show any significant outliers — instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend. There is minimal fluctuation in the rates throughout the entire dataset, and no singular data point jumps out as significantly deviating from the trend. These observations suggest that the given time period was relatively stable in terms of exchange rates, with no sharp increases or decreases disrupting the overall downward trend.""

Consideration of External Factors

As per your instructions, external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports were not factored into this analysis. However, it is worth noting that such factors could potentially have a significant impact on exchange rates, and considering them could add further depth and accuracy to this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Looking at the provided data from 2024-04-24 00:00:02 to 2024-04-24 23:55:02, the exchange rate of DOP seemed to have experienced some fluctuation but generally remained within a similar range throughout the period. The rate mainly hovered around 0.02332, with slight deviations. There seems to have been a brief spike around 2024-04-24 11:40:03 where the rate increased significantly to 0.03234 but it quickly returned back to previous levels. This could be due to sudden market volatility or a data error that would require further verification.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Given the one day data provided, it would be hard to extract a defined seasonality or recurring pattern in the changes of exchange rates. To ascertain this, a longer time series data across several months to years would be required in order for patterns to emerge. However, the data indicates the rate remained relatively stable showing no consistent pattern of peaks or drops during particular time intervals of the day.

Noting any outliers

Looking at the dataset, one major outlier that stands out is the sudden increase in the exchange rate at 2024-04-24 11:40:03 where the rate went up significantly to 0.03234 from 0.02333 at 2024-04-24 11:30:03. This jump is an exception to the relatively stable pattern observed throughout the rest of the data. By 2024-04-24 11:55:03, the rate had already decreased to 0.03233, and it decreased further to 0.02349 by 2024-04-24 12:05:03. The reason for this spike and subsequent drop isn't clear from the given data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

Based on the provided time series data, the exchange rate shows a very stable trend with only minor fluctuations between 0.02299 and 0.02334 throughout the whole period. Initially, the rate remains stable at approximately 0.02324 till 2024-04-23 01:55:02 timestamp after which it shows a minor increment, reaching up to 0.02332 by 2024-04-23 06:55:02. The rate then slightly decreases at 11:00:03 (to around 0.02303). After fluctuating in the proximity of 0.023 for most of the time, we notice a significant jump to 0.02333 at timestamp 2024-04-23 20:05:02 which remains stable till the end of the provided time series.

Seasonality and Patterns

Although the data does not exhibit major seasonal patterns, one can notice minute fluctuations periodically. These fluctuations seem to be in effect every few hours. However, the exchange rate remains considerably stable throughout.

Outliers

Given the relatively stable rates through the course of the time series, there are no major outliers present in the dataset - any significant deviation from the existing trend would be marked as an outlier. However, with the current consistency in the data, none such outliers are present.

Other Observations

It's worth noting that the provided dataset contains time series data of roughly a day. Longer-term trends may not be as stable as represented by this dataset. If the dataset were to be expanded, some patterns could change depending on external variables such as economic factors, government interventions, and global currency market conditions.

In conclusion, the DOP exchange rate demonstrated an overall stable performance within the presented timeline, with insignificant fluctuations.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend

From the data provided, the exchange rates generally appear to remain relatively stable between 0.02324 and 0.02329 throughout the given period. Although there are minor fluctuations, these do not indicate any significant increases or decreases in the rates over the period shown.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

There does not appear to be any clear seasonality or recurring patterns within the data. There are slight variations in the exchange rates, but these do not occur at a consistent frequency that would indicate any seasonal trends. This suggests that the fluctuations may be due to random noise in the data, rather than any cyclical behavior.

3. Outliers

While the exchange rates largely fall between 0.02324 and 0.02329, there are some instances where the data deviates from this range. For example, there are instances where the exchange rate drops to as low as 0.02305 (happened at 2024-04-22 19:55:01), which could be considered an outlier. However, these deviations are relatively small and thus do not significantly impact the overall trend. They may be the result of unexpected fluctuations in the foreign exchange market or measurement errors.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the exchange rates seems to be mostly stable with slight increases and decreases over time. The range of exchange rates is between 0.02271 and 0.02342. It started at a value of 0.0228 and the last value is 0.02314. This suggests a minor increase in rates over the given timestamps. However, we see some fluctuation of these rates during that period, indicating periods of both rising and falling rates.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From the provided dataset, it is challenging to discern any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the dataset given the irregularity in time intervals and without additional context or data on other variables that may affect exchange rates. However, there seem to be daily fluctuations that suggest some form of intraday volatility-of-trend, possibly due to market dynamics.

Note of Outliers

The dataset does not seem to present extreme fluctuations that could suggest outliers. Most of the rates appear to fall within a small range. However, due to the lack of context such as an understanding of what kind of events happened during these timestamps, it's difficult to ascertain what kind of fluctuations could be considered as outliers.

Please note, this analysis is purely based on the given data and does not consider external factors like economic indicators, geopolitical events, monetary policies, etc. that could have potentially significant impacts on exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Comprehensive Analysis

Based on the data provided, several observations have been made about the time series data on the changes in the DOP exchange rates.

Overall Trend

There seems to be a slight increase in the exchange rate of DOP from approximately 0.02324 on 2024-04-15 to reaching a peak of 0.02342 on 2024-04-16 10:00:02. This upward trend, however, begins to gradually decrease from 0.02342 on 2024-04-16 10:00:02 to hitting the lowest point at 0.02312 on 2024-04-15 09:00:03. It is important to note, that despite these fluctuations, the exchange rate can generally be considered as stable in the observed period, as the variations are quite minimal.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In the given time series data, it is challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. This could possibly be due to the short span of data that we have, which is only for few days. However, it is observed that the exchange rate usually has small decreases around 09:00:03 and increment around 10:00:02. Further data analysis and a longer time series would be needed to determine any definitive patterns.

Outliers Observation

The outlier in this dataset is observed at 2024-04-15 09:00:03 where the exchange rate dropped significantly to 0.02312 from its previous value of 0.02323 at 2024-04-15 08:00:02. This can be considered an outlier because it deviates significantly from its previous and succeeding data points.

The other potential outlier is at 2024-04-16 10:00:02, where the exchange rate hit its peak for the observed period at 0.02342. This significantly deviates from the relatively stable rate during other times, hence can be considered as an outlier.

However, as we are only considering a few days of data and without considering any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, it is possible these observed deviations may not, in fact, be true outliers and merely responses to such external factors.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

This time series dataset seems to indicate a mostly stable exchange rate for the DOP over the time period given, hovering consistently around 0.02320. The rate sees a slight increase in the middle of the period, specifically around the timestamp 2024-04-19 06:35:02 at a rate of 0.02333, which was the highest value reached. Following this peak, the values resume a downward trend toward stabilization around 0.02320 again. It could be inferred that over the time period given, the DOP maintains a fairly stable exchange rate, with minor fluctuations that correct themselves over time.

2. Seasonality Analysis

Given the scope of the data and frequency of observations (every 5 minutes over a 24-hour period), identifying seasonality can be challenging. However, it appears that the exchange rate remains relatively stable over the majority of the timestamps, suggesting that there may not be any strong seasonal trends within the 24-hour time frame. Further analysis would be needed using longer-term data to more accurately determine any potential seasonal patterns, such as hourly, daily, or monthly trends.

3. Outlier Analysis

A clear outlier within this dataset is the slight increase in the DOP exchange rate to 0.02333 at the timestamp 2024-04-19 06:35:02. Although this increase is small and short-lived, it stands out from the more consistent rate of approximately 0.02320 during the majority of the dataset. This outlier does not appear to disrupt the overall trend, as values subsequently return to around the same exchange rate before the increase. It could represent a momentary peak driven by factors not included in the dataset.