Azerbaijanian Manat Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend

    Upon initial observation, the exchange rate shows slight fluctuation with no clear pattern of repeated increase or decrease over the period. Yet, a minor alternating upward and downward trend is seen. The currency does not exhibit strong signs of stability as the rate varies quite frequently within a single day. However, a sudden spike can be seen near the 04:45:02 and 10:55:02 marks which quickly dip down afterwards. More calculated examination with statistical measures would provide a precise overview.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    A detailed examination would be required for identifying any seasonality in the dataset. Time-series analysis techniques, such as trend decomposition, could be used to determine whether any underlying seasonal patterns exist in the data. However, based on the current dataset, repeated distinct patterns or seasonality are not clearly visible. The data seems to fluctuate in no apparent order throughout the given period.

    Outliers

    From the current view of the data, we can see a few points where the exchange rate showed a significant rise compared to its nearby values. Specifically, the values near 04:45:02, 10:55:02, 22:05:01 and 22:35:02 timestamps can be seen as outliers. These values show a sudden increase in exchange rate followed by an immediate sharp decrease. These could be the result of an unexpected event or market movement during those times. Further statistical analysis like box-plot can be used to determine these outliers more precisely.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Upon preliminary examination, the AZN exchange rates seem to exhibit a somewhat stable trend, with slight fluctuations evident throughout the given timeframe. The AZN index appears to range around 0.79 - 0.83, with no strong upwards or downwards trend discernible in the given period. This stability suggests a level of economic consistency for the period under review.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Dividing the dataset into distinct intervals to identify any potential seasonality or recurring patterns, it is challenging to definitively observe any within the given timeframe. Given the inherent nature of exchange rates which fluctuate due to variety of market and external geopolitical factors, more data may be required to develop clear cyclical or seasonal patterns. Nonetheless, subject to further analysis and longer time series data, it is advised to consider this observation for completeness.

    Notable Outliers

    A few instances can be notable as outliers in this dataset. For example, there are instances where the exchange rate climbs to around 0.83172 and drops to 0.77014, which considerably deviates from the general range observed. While in a healthier economic condition these outliers could be the result of unique economic events or scenarios, it is also plausible that they might simply represent data errors in recording or transcribing the exchange rates. Further clarification would be needed to confirm these possibilities.

    As per your requirement, this analysis does not factor in external considerations such as holidays, market times, or specific financial events. Addition of these parameters could provide a more nuanced understanding of the data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    The analysis of the provided dataset shows that the exchange rate of AZN has generally varied within a relatively close range. There is no apparent systematic increase or decrease trend over the time period shown. However, there are regular oscillations in the rates, indicating frequent rises and falls.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In the given dataset, no discernible seasonality or recurring patterns are identifiable. Seasonality would imply a consistent and predictable fluctuation in the rates at regular intervals, say, daily, weekly, or monthly. The dataset, however, seems to reflect more random variations than systematic, predictable ones. However, deeper analysis using more sophisticated time-series techniques might be required to identify any hidden patterns or cycles.

    3. Noting any Outliers

    Outliers in this context would be any values that are significantly distant from the rest of the data points. They could indicate either unusually high or low exchange rates. It seems from the dataset we have a few potential outliers, such as:

    • An unusually low rate of 0.77157 at 2024-02-26 21:40:02
    • An unusually high rate of 0.82696 at 2024-02-26 16:50:02
    These outliers could be due to various reasons such as extreme market events, data errors, etc., and might require further investigation.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    From the given data, it appears that the exchange rate of AZN has generally shown fluctuations throughout the given time period. Without calculating a formal trend line, it is complex to say definitively if the rates are overall increasing or decreasing. However, there is no clear and consistent upward or downward trajectory from the given data. Instead, the rate shows regular oscillation, indicating a dynamic market with frequent rate changes.

    Seasonality or Recurrent Patterns

    At this level of granularity, with data points presented every few hours, it is challenging to identify clear seasonality or recurring patterns without application of more sophisticated time-series analysis techniques. That being said, inspection of the data doesn't reveal any obvious regularly-occurring fluctuations that would suggest something like daily or weekly cyclical changes. The data would need to be aggregated at a higher level (daily, weekly) and analysed over a longer period to confirm the presence of any such patterns.

    Notable Outliers

    There are a few notable potential outliers in the data. For example, the rate jumps to 0.81245 at 14:00 on 31st January 2024 and then drops to 0.79122 at 20:00 on the same day. Similarly, there are drastic fluctuations on 21st February 2024, starting at a rate of 0.81149 at 8:00 before dropping to 0.7796 on 22nd February at 2:00. These could result from market volatility, large transactions, or data errors, and would require further investigation to understand fully.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overview of the Exchange Rate Trend

    The data given above represents the changes in AZN exchange rates between February 19, 2024 and February 23, 2024. The timestamps are at irregular intervals, but the conversation rates seemed to fluctuate throughout this period.

    Looking at the provided data, the exchange rate initially appears to decline slightly, from 0.79492 at the start of February 19 to 0.78997 at the beginning of February 20. However, the rate then starts to increase, reaching a peak of 0.81275 on February 21. Post this peak, the exchange rate plunges, dropping to as low as 0.7796 on February 22. It then seems to recover slightly towards the end of the period, closing out at 0.79231 on February 23.

    Observations on Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns is challenging due to the short duration of the data and the irregularity of the timestamps. However, following can be inferred:

    • There is some degree of volatility in the exchange rate, as the value frequently fluctuates between 0.79 and 0.81 during this period.
    • The highest exchange rates appear to occur intermittently rather than at regular intervals, suggesting a lack of clear seasonal pattern.

    Outliers and Significant Changes in Exchange Rate

    There are a few instances in the data where the exchange rate differs greatly from the more common values.

    • The first significant spike is noticed on February 21, when the rate jumps to 0.81149 from 0.79567 and further increases to reach a peak of 0.81275. This is significantly higher than rates seen before and after this spike.
    • The second significant movement occurs on February 22, where the rate dramatically drops to 0.7796, marking the lowest point in the data range.

    To summarize, the exchange rate data shows a fair amount of volatility over the analyzed period of February 19-23, 2024. While there seems to be no clear seasonal patterns, instances of significant spikes and dips suggest external factors impacting the exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Comprehensive Analysis of the Given Time-Series Data

    The dataset provided gives us detailed insights into the trends and patterns of the AZN exchange rate over a period of time. As a time series data, it indicates fluctuations in the given exchange rate at specific intervals. It is critically important to grasp the trend and note the regularity and irregularity in such details to make informed decisions.

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Looking at the data provided, there is a high level of fluctuation in the exchange rates. They are not steadily increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant over time. There are many instances where the rate increases and reduces rapidly within short time periods. The highest detected rate is 0.82169 and the lowest is 0.78502. Although there's some abrupt rise and fall, the rates mostly revolves around 0.79 - 0.80. This indicates there is no clear increasing or decreasing trend over the period shown.

    Seasonality / Recurring Patterns

    Identifying a concrete recurring pattern or seasonality is quite challenging due to the fluctuations and short timeframe of the data. There's no clear daily or hourly pattern of rise or fall. The changes seem to take place randomly rather than depending on a specific time frame. It could be worthwhile to analyze longer-term data that spans weeks, months, or even years for a clearer understanding of any cyclic trend or seasonality in relation to the exchange rate.

    Outliers Identification

    We observe occasional spikes or drops in the exchange rate, which can be identified as outliers. Specifically, the rate of 0.82169 stands out as it appears to be a significant deviation from the general range of exchange rates that we see in the rest of the data. Similarly, the sudden drop to 0.78502 could also be considered an outlier given the average rate is around 0.79 - 0.80. These outliers might indicate extraordinary events or activities in the market during those times.

    External Factors

    While the analysis does not consider external factors explicitly, it is important to keep in mind that exchange rates are subject to a broad range of influences, including market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news and reports, and various other economic indicators and events. Further comprehensive analysis could include these factors for a more profound understanding of the patterns and trends in the data.