Azerbaijanian Manat Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From a general view of the data, there are fluctuations in the exchange rate for the period under consideration. However, the exchange rate values seem to oscillate around an average value of around 0.805, suggesting a general stability of the rate within this period. Although there are peaks and troughs, there aren't significant shifts in the general exchange rate trend that we can pinpoint as a general increasing or decreasing trend.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

When examining the time-series data from a bird's eye view, there doesn't appear to be a clear indication of seasonality or repetitive patterns over the given timespan. The data fluctuates throughout the day, indicating that the exchange rate shifts according to the market forces rather than daily cycles. To confirm the absence or presence of seasonality or recurring patterns, a detailed time-series decomposition analysis would be required which is out of the scope for this analysis since we are not considering factors such as market opening and closing hours or weekends.

Outliers or Significant Deviations

• There are certain points that diverge from the regular values like 0.83427, 0.81804, 0.82112, 0.83304, 0.82549 and 0.83615
• These values seem to be outliers since they are significantly higher than other values found on the dataset. Interesting to note is that some of these exceptionally high exchange rate values were recorded just a few minutes apart, suggesting that there could have been a short-lived yet impactful event during those moments causing these spikes.

Note: The existence and impact of these outliers should need more detailed statistical analysis like the 3-sigma rule or a comprehensive box-plot analysis.

Given the fluctuating nature of exchange rates and the lack of notable repetitive patterns within the data, predictions based solely on this information may not be entirely reliable or accurate. For more sound predictions, external factors such as financial news and market analyses should be combined with the insights gained from this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

For the comprehensive analysis of the provided data set, we can adopt a stepwise approach including exploring the dataset, understanding the trend, identifying the seasonality, and noticing any outliers.

1. Understanding the Trend in Exchange Rates:

The data set indicates minor fluctuations over time. There seem to be both periods of increase and decrease in the exchange rates but without a more significant consistent trend for a considerable period. However, without plotting the data on a graph or conducting a more deep-dive analysis, this assessment can't be entirely accurate.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

From the initial look of the dataset, it's hard to identify a clear pattern or seasonality just by looking at the presented figures. Usually, it is better to represent the data visually to understand any seasonality. If there is a pattern that tends to recur after a specific interval, then we can say the data shows seasonality.

3. Noticing Outliers in the Data:

Observation of the dataset reveals there are values which appear unusually low or high compared to the majority of values such as 0.77882 and 0.82081. However, without a more in-depth statistical analysis, it's difficult to provide an accurate count or identification of outliers, this can be done by calculating IQR range or plotting Box-plot.

It's important to consider that the presence of such outlying figures can significantly affect the averages and other statistical measures. Thus, in case a high level of accuracy is required, these outliers should be properly addressed - either by excluding them or adjusting them.

Please note that for more accurate results, visualizations and statistical computations should be used. This analysis is mainly based on raw numerical observations.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon examining the given dataset, there doesn't appear to be a constant increase or decline in the trend. The rate fluctuates around the value of 0.805 and doesn't differ significantly from this figure throughout the given timestamps. There are certain moments of upward and downward movement, but they tend to balance each other out over time, resulting in a relatively stable trend.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the dataset does not exhibit clear periodic fluctuations that would signify seasonal influences or cyclical patterns, such as daily or hourly patterns. Any notable upward or downward shifts do not seem to follow a consistent temporal pattern and therefore may be more likely attributed to random variation than to a stable, predictable cycle.

3. Identifying Outliers

There is a noticeable outlier at the timestamp "2024-04-23 05:45:02" where the exchange rate drops to 0.79032, which significantly deviates from the broadly stable trend around 0.805. Another similar outlier is at "2024-04-23 05:50:02" where the value is 0.78964. Yet, in both cases, the rates return to normal levels fairly quickly, suggesting these could be random outliers rather than indicative of a broad trend.

As per your instructions, this analysis is merely an immediate examination of the provided data and does not take into account broader market trends, hours, or events like news or financial reports. Consequently, it's advised to regard these findings as preliminary and to further substantiate these with more comprehensive and detailed analyses.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

The overall trend in the exchange rates for the given timeframe appears to mostly remain stable, with a slight fluctuation. The rates are ranging from approximately 0.7784 to 0.83671. While there are some minor upward and downward movements, there isn't a visible clear trend of continuous rise or fall in the rates. This overall steadiness suggests that the market for this currency pair was relatively stable during this period.

Seasonality or recurring patterns

As for the seasonality or recurrent patterns, it's challenging to determine them within this data set clearly. With time series data of this type, seasonality is often observed in data spanning over more extended periods, often years, where seasonal effects (like quarterly financial reports, yearly economic events etc.) might influence the exchange rates. Given the limited amount of data and the short timeframe, it doesn't provide significant evidence of seasonality or recurring patterns.

Outliers in the data

Notable outliers in the data are values that significantly deviate from the average trend. They are often resulting from unique, unpredictable events, errors in data collection, or extreme variations in the market. In this data, there's a notable peak at 0.83671 and a few dips as low as 0.7784, and the lowest 0.78521 and 0.7838, which are significant changes compared to the general stability of the data and can be considered as outliers. However, without knowing the reasons behind these changes, it's tough to determine if these are true outliers or valid fluctuations resulting from market events.

Additional Considerations

While this analysis is based on the data provided, it's important to remember that the financial markets are often influenced by a multitude of factors including geopolitical events, economic indicators, market sentiment, etc. For a more comprehensive understanding of the currency exchange rates, you may need to consider external financial reports, news, and events, although you specified that these should not be included in this particular analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Overall Trend

The overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be fluctuating, with no clear constant pattern of increment or decrement. There is a certain level of volatility, with the exchange rate reaching both high and low points, but there is no clear sustained rise or fall pattern over the period. This could be attributed to various unpredictable factors in currency markets that affect exchange rates, such as geopolitical events, economic developments, or changes in monetary policy.

Seasonality

From the provided dataset, no clear seasonal pattern or recurring trend can be identified in the exchange rates over the entire period. Exchange rate markets are influenced by a multitude of factors and variables, and while in some markets a degree of seasonality might be observed, it's not evidently noticeable in this dataset. It's crucial to remember that any perceived pattern relies heavily on the duration and specific period being analyzed.

Outliers

The key outliers in this dataset are the notably high exchange rates observed on '2024-04-16 14:00:03' and '2024-04-18 18:00:02'. These instances might be attributed to unforeseen market events, causing temporary volatility and significant deviation from the normal exchange rates. However, without specific knowledge of events or circumstances at that time, it's challenging to ascertain the exact cause of these anomalies.

Remember that in financial markets, outliers are not uncommon and can often provide important insights into market dynamics and events. However, these outliers should be handled with caution when making further inferences or building predictive models, as they can sometimes distort the underlying trends or patterns in the data.

Conclusions

To summarize, the overall trend of the exchange rates in this dataset shows fluctuations with no clear overarching increase or decrease. No evident seasonality or recurring patterns have been found. A few key outliers were documented, potentially indicative of particular events impacting the market at those times. However, these inferences might require further investigation or analysis for a comprehensive understanding of the trends in the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

From a preliminary inspection of the data, we see that the exchange rates fluctuate between roughly 0.79 and 0.85. The data does not show a clear trend of persistent increase or decrease over the entire period. Instead, the exchange rates seem to rise and fall regularly, suggesting a possible pattern.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

Time series data often exhibits seasonality, which refers to predictable and recurring patterns of increase and decrease over a set period. In this case, however, the given dataset does not provide enough information to identify any clear seasonal trends. The timestamps cover multiple days, but they are sporadic and do not consistently represent the same times each day. Therefore, we cannot draw definitive conclusions about daily or hourly seasonal patterns from this data.

Noting any outliers

There are a few instances of exchange rates that could potentially be considered outliers. For instance, the rate reaches a peak of 0.85 on April 16, 2024, which is significantly higher than the majority of the values. Assuming a normal distribution, we would expect more values clustered close to an average with fewer values situated towards the extremes. This peak constitutes a value differing significantly from what would be expected and therefore can be considered an outlier. However, further statistical analysis would be necessary to definitively classify any outliers.

It's worth noting, however, that outliers are not necessarily mistakes or anomalies. They can also indicate significant events or shifts in the exchange rate. Ignoring these outliers could result in missing crucial insights.

Please note that for a more in-depth and accurate analysis, we might require additional data and conduct specialized statistical analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The first step of my analysis involves getting an idea of the general trend in the dataset. This data covers a short time span, from 2024-04-19 00:00:02 to 2024-04-19 14:55:01. As it is only temporal data from a single day, it is quite challenging to discern a precise long-term trend. Nevertheless, starting with an initial value of 0.81085, the exchange rates fluctuate up and down throughout the day and end up at 0.80705. This suggests a slight downward tendency overall on this particular day, though any generalizations about longer periods based on this would require additional data.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

If we observe the minute-to-minute changes, some periods manifest more dramatic fluctuation than others. For instance, there appears to be an increase at around 02:25:02 and a significant drop at around 03:05:03. However, in the remainder of the day, the values tend to hover around the 0.808-0.813 range, suggesting some element of consistency. However, this data represents only one day, which limits the opportunity to identify significant recurring daily or weekly patterns. More extensive data spanning several days or weeks would be needed to effectively identify such seasonality or recurring patterns.

3. Identification of Outliers

There are a few possible outliers noticeable in this particular dataset. The most prominent is the spike to 0.82915 at 05:25:02. This value significantly outpaces the general range manifested in the data and hence can probably be described as an outlier. There is also a considerable dip to a low of 0.78871 at 12:35:02, which more broadly deviates from the average. Nonetheless, it is crucial to remember that financial data can be highly volatile, and what may seem like an outlier might just be a manifestation of this inherent volatility. More data and context would allow for a better understanding of whether these points are genuine outliers.