Malagasy Ariary Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the data provided, the exchange rate of MGA appears to remain consistent and stable over the provided timestamps. Every single datapoint from the 25th of April 2024 remains at a consistent exchange rate of 0.00031. As such, there’s no visible increase or decrease when considering the overall trend. The consistency can be seen from the opening rate to the closing rate on this particular day.

Seasonality Analysis

As the exchange rate remains constant throughout the entire dataset, it's impossible to ascertain any form of seasonality or recurring patterns. Pattern recognition and cyclicality usually mandate some level of fluctuation or variation. However, from the data provided, the rate doesn't deviate from 0.00031, suggesting there's no explicit seasonality in this dataset. Even by considering time intervals such as hours or specific periods of the day, the rate remains unvaried.

Outliers and Significant Divergences

Given the stability and consistency in the exchange rates, there are no observable outliers in this dataset. An outlier would typically be recognized as a significant deviation from other observations, but in this dataset, all exchange rates are identical (0.00031). As such, no distinct instances significantly diverge from the standard trend or expected rate.

The dataset portrays an entirely consistent exchange rate for MGA. However, it would be beneficial to have a more extensive dataset or data over a longer period to perform more comprehensive time-series analysis and possibly identify trends, fluctuations, and outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the provided data, the exchange rate for MGA appears to remain constant throughout the entire time series. The rate remains consistent at a value of 0.00031, signifying a very stable currency. There do not appear to be any appreciable increases or decreases in the exchange rate over this particular period. It's worth noting that while currency stability can be a good thing, but it's unusual for a rate to remain completely unchanged.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

In this dataset, no seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates can be identified as the exchange rate remains constant throughout the period. Typically, one would examine fluctuations in the rate over different periods (days, weeks, months, etc.) to try and identify any regular patterns that may suggest seasonality or cyclic behavior. However, due to the static nature of the rates in this dataset, no such analysis can be made.

Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

Based on the dataset provided, there are no observable outliers. An outlier would be an instance where the exchange rate significantly deviated from the constant rate of 0.00031. In this case, since the rate is consistent throughout, there are no such instances to report.

In conclusion, the provided dataset implies a highly stable exchange rate for MGA, with no visible trend, seasonality or outliers. However, it is unusual for real-world exchange rates to remain this unvaried, suggesting that further investigation may be necessary to validate the data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Looking at the data provided, it is observed that the exchange rate quoted for MGA is constant throughout the time series data provided at 0.00031. Therefore, it can be inferred that the overall exchange rate has remained stable over the period shown. This could possibly imply a steady or balanced market for this particular exchange rate during this period. However, without any specific variations or fluctuation in the exchange rate, it is challenging to determine any meaningful upward or downward trend.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

As the exchange rate data provided has shown no change throughout the time series data, we cannot identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. Seasonality and recurring patterns typically become evident with variations to the data over time, which is not the case in this instance. Therefore, we can only conclude that the exchange rate has remained level and consistent during the given time frame, without any evidence of periodic or cyclical fluctuations.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

Given the uniform nature of the provided exchange rate data, there are no instances of outliers or significant deviations from any defined trend. An 'outlier' is typically understood to be a data point that differs significantly from other observations. Considering our data, all observations are identical, and hence, no single data point stands out or deviates from the rest. Therefore, we can imply that the exchange rate has remained consistently stable without any exceptional fluctuations.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of MGA Exchange Rates

The time-series data provided corresponds to MGA (Madagascar Ariary) exchange rates recorded from 12:00 am to 11:55 pm on April 22, 2024. The exchange rate remains constant at 0.00031 throughout the recorded period.

Understanding the Overall Trend

From the observed dataset, it is evident that the exchange rate for this specific day (April 22, 2024), remained constant throughout the day. There were no instances of increase or decrease in the rates, suggesting a stable market on the specific day.

Identifying Recurring Patterns or Seasonality

As the data provided is for only a single day, it is difficult to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns within this dataset. Changes in exchange rates often follow patterns that can be observed over longer periods (such as weekly, monthly, or yearly patterns), and this data does not cover multiple periods. However, there were no changes within different hours of the day.

Outliers or Significant Differentials

Throughout the provided time series, there were no outliers or instances where the exchange rate deviated from the observed rate of 0.00031. This rate was recorded consistently without any fluctuations.

This concludes a comprehensive analysis of the provided dataset. More robust assessments could be made if the dataset covered a broader period or if it included additional variables that could potentially influence the exchange rate. Prevention of consideration of external factors like opening or closing market hours, weekends, holidays, or critical financial news restricts the depth of the discussion.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Comprehensive Analysis of Provided Dataset (MGA Exchange Rates)

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From a cursory glance at the data, there appears to be a relatively stable trend in the MGA exchange rate from 2024-03-22 to 2024-04-19, hovering around 0.00031 for the majority of the time. The exchange rate did not vary on a day to day basis, but a slight increase to 0.00032 was noticed on two distinct dates; 2024-04-15 and 2024-04-18. This could warrant further examination to understand if any recurring patterns exist.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Making sense of seasonality or recurring patterns with the provided timestamps is difficult due to the extensive volume of data and the seemingly random changes in time intervals. However, a slight increase in exchange rates was noticed on two dates - 2024-04-15 and 2024-04-18; this needs further investigation to fully confirm if there's a predictable pattern.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

The majority of the MGA exchange rates hover around 0.00031, according to the provided timestamp data. Any rate that deviates from this standard might be considered an outlier. In this particular dataset, the instances where the exchange rate increased to 0.00032 could be considered outliers, since those rate values deviated from the prevalent rate of 0.00031, that appears to be the mode.

Summary

In summary, the MGA exchange rate appears to be primarily stable over time. The most prevalent rate of 0.00031 is observed in the dataset, with minor deviations. There were a couple of instances where the rate increased slightly to 0.00032, potentially indicating an event or pattern that could be subject to further investigation. It's important to state that this analysis is limited by the absence of external factors like market opening/closing hours, and weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. All these could have significant impact on the behavior of exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The exchange rate shown varies between 0.00031 and 0.00032. There is a negligible fluctuation in the rate over time which suggests that the exchange rate has been relatively stable during the period observed. We see the rate moving from 0.00031 to 0.00032 and back to 0.00031 at different points, but no clear directional trend of increasing or decreasing over time can be seen within this dataset.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

The data provided does not span a long enough time range to clearly identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. Seasonality often requires a few cycles (typically years) of data to identify. However, one might argue that there seems to be a daily recurrence. The exchange rate slightly increases to 0.00032 around the 10th and 17th hour of every day, and decreases back to 0.00031 afterwards. This pattern repeats with a rough 24-hour cycle, possibly corresponding to the daily market open and close times, although further investigation would be required to confirm this.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

In this dataset, an exchange rate of 0.00032 could potentially be considered an outlier, as the rate predominantly holds at 0.00031. However, it's important to note that these fluctuations between 0.00031 and 0.00032 are quite minor and occur regularly, suggesting that they might be within normal range for this particular dataset. Notably, there are no extreme values that fluctuate drastically from these two exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Upon reviewing the dataset provided, it is evident that the exchange rate of MGA has remained incredibly constant at 0.00031 over the reported time frame. No fluctuations, upward or downward trend is observed in this dataset.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the constancy of the exchange rate (at 0.00031), there are no discernible seasonal patterns or recurring oscillations in the exchange rate. This constancy sustains through various time frames in the data set.

3. Outliers in the Data

In the context of this data set, an outlier would be any significant deviation from the constant value of 0.00031. Upon analysis, no such deviations or outliers are observed in the provided time-series data. All the recorded exchange rates in the dataset maintain the constant rate of 0.00031.