Malagasy Ariary Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overview of the dataset

    The provided dataset records the exchange rate of the MGA (Malagasy Ariary) every five to ten minutes for a single day - February 29, 2024. The same constant value (0.0003) is listed for every timestamp in the dataset. Because of this, there isn't any fluctuation or changing trend in the exchange rate for this specific day. It seems that the exchange rate remained stable throughout the whole day.

    No Trend or Seasonality

    Typically for an exchange rate time series dataset, we'd expect to see a fluctuating trend and possible seasonality based on trading hours or recurring market trends. However, in this dataset, the MGA exchange rate remains steady at 0.0003 for all the timestamps, indicating that there were no changes in the forex exchange rate in this particular 24-hour cycle. In fact, because every data point is identical, there is no trend (upward, downward, or otherwise) and no seasonality to be found in this data.

    Outlier Detection

    In general, the identification of outliers in a dataset provides us with important information about anomalies or rare events that may require further investigation. In this dataset, though, because there is no variation in the exchange rate data (all values are 0.0003), there is no opportunity to identify any outliers. Put simply, when all data points have the same value, there can't be any outliers.

    No External Factors Considered

    It's worth noting that given the brief and the dataset's consistency, we did not consider any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. In general, these external factors can have a substantial influence on exchange rate movements. However, according to the provided instructions and the provided data, these factors were not considered in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Given this dataset, it appears that the exchange rate has remained stable across all timestamps provided. With a constant exchange rate of 0.0003, there is no clear trend of increase or decrease over the period represented by the data. However, in practice, this might be an oversimplified view, and the data may just not be granular enough to capture minute fluctuations in the exchange rate.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    With the exchange rate constant at 0.0003 over all timestamps, there doesn't appear to be any discernable seasonality or recurring patterns in these exchange rates in this dataset. Normally, one could infer daily, weekly, or annual patterns from time-series data. But given this data, the consistency of the exchange rate suggests no clear cyclical pattern within this particular set of data. Again, it might be possible that the data is not granular enough to identify those patterns.

    Outliers and Unexpected Results

    In this dataset of exchange rates, there do not seem to be any instances of significant difference or outliers in the data. The exchange rate remains at a constant 0.0003 throughout all different times provided, indicating no deviations from the norm. Typically, one might expect to see periodic fluctuations in exchange rates due to various factors in the global economy, but in this dataset, there are no such outliers evident.

    Important Notes

    • This analysis does not consider any specific events or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. These factors can often have a significant impact on exchange rates.
    • There is no forecast made for future rates. This analysis simply observes the past pattern from the data provided.
    • An exchange rate that remains constant is quite unusual in reality, as rates typically fluctify continuously due to changes in supply and demand, economic policies, geopolitical events, among other factors.
    • If in reality the exchange rate was truly constant, it could suggest a fixed exchange rate set by the monetary authorities rather than a floating one determined by the market.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Based on the dataset provided, it's clear that the dataset does not have variability as the exchange rate value seems to stay consistently at 0.0003 across all the timestamps given. Thus, a comprehensive analysis may not provide significant insights. The result, however, are as follows:

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    In reviewing the data, the overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be consistent. There has been no observable increase or decrease over the provided period. The exchange rate of MGA has remained stable at a rate of 0.0003, with no significant fluctuations observed in the dataset.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the stability of the MGA exchange rate across the provided timestamps, there were no discernible seasonal or recurring patterns within the dataset. Exchange rates are often subject to a multitude of factors that can cause regular fluctuations. However, in this instance, the consistent rate of 0.0003 suggests no clear pattern or cyclical variation in the observed timeframe.

    Outliers and Anomalies

    The analysis of this dataset did not reveal any outliers or significant deviations from the overall pattern. As the currency exchange rate has remained static at 0.0003 throughout, there are no instances of the rate differing substantially from this trend. Therefore, no unusual or unique variations in the data are requiring further investigation.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    After examining the provided data, it's evident that the MGA exchange rate stays broadly stable during the observed period. It stands at 0.0003 for most of the record, with a slight dip to 0.00029 observed multiple times. Therefore, the overall trend does not show any considerable change in the value of the currency.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As for recurring patterns or periodicity, it's quite challenging to confirm any due to the limited range of rate fluctuations and a short timeline. However, there's a noticeable pattern where the rate drops slightly to 0.00029 in two instances: around 2024-02-01 and 2024-02-12. It's challenging, though, to conclude if this is a recurring pattern or merely a coincidence without more comprehensive data.

    3. Notable Outliers

    Considering the limited fluctuation in the data, it's challenging to identify any substantial outliers. Nevertheless, the few occurrences of a slight drop to 0.00029 can be seen as mild outliers since they deviate from the standard rate of 0.0003. However, they may not be significant outliers as their deviation from the mode is quite minor.

    It's crucial to note that these interpretations rely on the data provided, which spans for a short period from 2024-01-26 to 2024-02-23, and does not appear to have been influenced by any drastic external events. For a more in-depth and reliable analysis, it may be beneficial to examine a larger dataset spanning multiple years, and including periods of economic instability or change.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Analysis of the Provided Dataset

    Observing the provided dataset, it presents the exchange rate of a specific currency (MGA) at various timestamps, extending from 2024-02-19 to 2024-02-23. Since the dataset only encapsulates a brief period of time, it is somewhat challenging to pinpoint any significant trends, anomalies, or seasonal fluctuations. However, a meticulous review has been performed, and the following observations have been made:

    1. Overall Trend

    Based on the provided data, the exchange rate of MGA remained consistent at 0.0003 throughout the entire duration. There is absolutely no change in the rate during this period. Hence, the overall trend of the exchange rate can be described as stable. No increasing or decreasing trend is detected, as the rate stayed constant.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As per the given dataset, it's arduous to discern any specific seasonality or recurring patterns due to the static nature of the exchange rate as well as the relatively brief timeframe that the dataset encompasses. There are no noticeable fluctuations in the exchange rate at different times of the day or on different dates that would exhibit any established pattern or seasonality.

    3. Outliers

    Given that the exchange rate remains steady at 0.0003 throughout the period, there are no discernible outliers or abnormally high or low rates that could be identified. Every data point aligns with the overall pattern, and none deviates from the expected rate. Therefore, the dataset does not contain any visible outliers.

    While this analysis provides you with an immediate understanding of the dataset's state and pattern, kindly note that factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can have substantial influence on the actual trend, seasonality and outliers in exchange rates. It is recommended to incorporate these factors for a comprehensive understanding of financial time series data. However, as requested, these factors were disregarded for this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    First and foremost, upon observation of the time series data provided, following insights can be gathered:

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

    The data presented shows that the exchange rate has remained stable throughout the provided dataset. This can be confirmed as all the values for the exchange rate provided in the dataset are constant at a rate of 0.0003. This indicates a remarkably stable trend without any significant increase or decrease.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates:

    In the case of the exchange rates in your dataset, no seasonality or recurring patterns can be observed. As mentioned, the exchange rate consistently remains at 0.0003, with no fluctuations that might suggest a seasonal or cyclic pattern.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly:

    Given the nature of the provided data, it is quite straightforward to identify outliers. In this instance, an outlier would be represented by any data point that is not 0.0003. It is important to note, however, that according to the dataset at hand, no outliers have been located as the rate remains constant throughout the entire dataset.

    In closing, this dataset shows a highly stable exchange rate without any noticeable fluctuations, recurrence, or outliers, signaling a steady and flat trend over the period. It's worth noting that this form of analysis is limited to the provided dataset and does not take any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports into consideration.