Afghani Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The dataset shows that in the initial period, the exchange rate appears to be fairly stable, generally fluctuating around a value of 0.01856. However, after a certain time, some increase in the exchange rate is evident, with the rate reaching up to values of 0.01865. Towards the end, the data experiences slight decreases before stabilizing around the value of 0.01860. Given the timestamp and the provided data, it appears that fluctuations are minor, and the exchange rates have shown a mixed trend of both minor increases and decreases.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Due to the granularity of the data (5-minute intervals), it's challenging to identify any daily or weekly seasonality trends within the dataset. However, certain patterns can be observed in the data. For instance, the data exhibits relatively stable values before experiencing a slight increase, then decreases slightly before stabilizing again. No consistent, recurring patterns are readily apparent in the data.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    The dataset shows consistent minor fluctuations in the exchange rates with no major outliers observed. There are instances of a slight increase in exchange rates, but these variations are not considerably higher than the overall observed stability in the rates. Hence, it would be difficult to categorize those instances as outliers without additional context or comparison with further patterns or expectations.

    In conclusion, the analysis indicates the exchange rates represented in the data showcase minor fluctuations with a directionless trend - increasing and decreasing at consistent values with no significant outliers observed.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend:

    After analyzing the dataset, it appears that the AFN exchange rate demonstrates a mild increasing trend across the timestamps provided. The rate starts at 0.01848 and ends at 0.01856. The increase may seem minimal, but this signifies an overall increase when we look at these rates from a smaller scale to a larger volatility perspective.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

    There seems to be little to no seasonality or recurring patterns at the micro level, as the fluctuations in the exchange rate appear to be relatively random rather than having a specific pattern. There are small peaks and troughs, but overall the data shown doesn't reflect a larger repeating pattern. A more extended dataset might be required to identify any seasonal elements or recurring patterns accurately.

    3. Outliers in Data:

    In this dataset of AFN exchange rates, no significant outliers are immediately apparent. The rates remain in a confined range around values of 0.01848 to 0.01859. However, further statistical analysis would be needed to identify if there are any subtle outliers we may have missed here. It's also important to consider that the 'expected' rate can depend on a wide range of external factors which haven't been included in this analysis.

    On a concluding note, further broad ranged data will give a more precise notion of the data's nature. As financial data is full of noise and a hefty amount of influencing factors, a larger dataset could be beneficial.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The exchange rate seems to be generally stable over the period shown. The rate starts at 0.01832 on 2024-02-26 00:00:02 and ends at 0.01832 on 2024-02-26 23:55:02.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    There seem to be minor fluctuations in the exchange rate throughout the dataset, but they do not appear to follow a clear seasonal or recurring pattern based on the given timestamps. There are several instances of the rate increasing or decreasing slightly between certain times, followed by periods of stability.

    Identifying Any Outliers

    There are no significant outliers in the provided dataset. The exchange rate hovers around 0.01832 to 0.01865 for most of the period, with very few instances of significant deviation from this range. There are no instances where the exchange rate differs substantially from what would be expected based on the overall trend.

    Note

    The observations are based strictly on the given dataset without considering any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

    Data Characteristics

    Overall, the provided dataset demonstrates a time series of exchange rates that remains mostly stable with small, seemingly sporadic, fluctuations. The dataset does not present any clear patterns or cycles and shows no significant outliers.

Summary of Last Week

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    The following analysis is generated using the data provided.

    Overall Trend

    From the data, it appears that the exchange rate fluctuated within a relatively small range throughout the period, with a high of 0.01871 and a low of 0.01786. The data seems to exhibit a certain degree of volatility, with some periods of sharper decreases and increases. However, it is not possible to discern a clear upwards or downwards trend over the time period observed. While there are periods of both increase and decrease, the rate at the close of the period is not significantly different from the rate at the start.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    In a time series data set, seasonality would appear as consistent and predictable patterns at certain intervals, such as daily, weekly, or monthly. However, given the relatively short period observed and the inconsistent times at which data points are recorded, it is challenging to identify any seasonality in this data set. If more consistent data were collected, such as at the same time each day or each week, it would be easier to determine whether the exchange rate shows any seasonality.

    Outliers

    In the given data set, the highest recorded exchange rate is 0.01871 and the lowest is 0.01786. These could potentially be seen as outliers. However, given that these values are fairly close to the rest of the data and no other data points stand out as significantly different, it would be more accurate to say that there are no true outliers in this data set.

    External Factors

    Although this analysis is not asked to consider external factors, I will note that in reality, many factors can impact exchange rates. They can be affected by a country's economic performance, political stability, interest rates, inflation, and more. However, without additional data and context, it's not possible to conclude how these factors may have impacted the exchange rates in this data set.

    Please note that this analysis is based on a relatively small data sample and a short time period. For a more comprehensive and reliable analysis, it would be beneficial to analyze a larger data set over a longer period.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    In analysing the dataset you provided, the goal is to understand the overall trend, identify any seasonality or recurring patterns, and note any significant outliers in the AFN exchange rates over a specific period of time.

    Overall Trend Understanding

    From an initial glance, there appears to be a relatively stable trend in the AFN exchange rates. There's an upward spike around February 20th and again around February 22nd, suggesting that there may have been high demand or a shortage during these periods. The rates dropped slightly afterward but seemed to rebound. On February 21st and 23rd, there was a noticeable increase of the rates which could indicate a strengthening of the AFN during these periods. The overall trend appears to show that the AFN had decreased in value over the period but rallied back toward the end of the period.

    Identifying Seasonality

    The AFN rates appear to have certain daily patterns, with little changes happening during certain periods of the day multiple times. Typically, rates are either steady or increase slightly during the day, while variations seem to be more frequent during the nighttime hours. This pattern seems to repeat across the whole dataset. However, there isn't enough data to make a decisive comment on the seasonality over months or years. This can be further investigated with a larger set of data spanning over a longer duration.

    Significant Outliers Identification

    A close review of the data reveals few outliers. On February 20th and 22nd, the rates suddenly increased, peaking at 0.01865 and 0.0186 respectively. These sudden increases in exchange rates, compared to surrounding data points, can be considered as outliers. These instances may represent periods of financial volatility, currency speculation, or other economic factors impacting the AFN exchange rate.

    Conclusion:

    This brief analysis provides a basic understanding of this AFN exchange rate dataset. A more comprehensive understanding could be achieved with a broader set of data and consideration of external influence factors. However, based on the data provided, the AFN exchange rates exhibit a general stable trend with certain daily patterns and considerable outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    In analysing the dataset provided and your requirements, the output of the comprehensive analysis is given below:

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates (AFN) over the given timestamp indicates minor fluctuations but a general stability. The exchange rate starts at 0.01823 at the beginning of the timeline and ends at 0.01862 towards the end. Overall, there is a minimal but noticeable increase in the exchange rate during the period shown in the data.

    2. Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Given the narrow range of exchange rates and the minimal deviation, it is challenging to identify clear seasonality or recurring patterns within this dataset. However, there are slight regular increases and decreases, suggesting some form of cyclical pattern. Specific periods of marginal increment in the exchange rates could be related to certain hours of the day, though without additional contextual data, it's impossible to make definitive conclusions.

    3. Noting any outliers in the exchange rates

    In reviewing the dataset, the values do not tend to deviate significantly from the narrow overall range (0.01823 to 0.01864). There do not appear to be any notable outliers, indicating that the exchange rate remained relatively consistent during the period covered by the dataset.