Syrian Pound Forecast

Follow Syrian Pound Forecast 2024-04-26

2024-04-25

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

The data provided spans a full day of exchange rates given at 5-minute intervals. Upon observing the dataset, it's noteworthy that the exchange rate remained constant at a value of 0.00054 from the start of the day till around 07:30:04. After that, the exchange rate increased slightly to 0.00055 and remained at that value for a significant portion of the remainder of the day. However, at 11:10:03 it decreased back to 0.00054 where it remained stable till the end of the day. Thus, the overall trend shows that the exchange rates remained remarkably stable throughout the day with minor fluctuation seen in the morning hours.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the one-day range of the data provided, there doesn't appear to be any clear seasonal trends in this dataset. An analysis of longer-term data would be required to identify potential seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates—for example, over multiple months or years. However, the minor fluctuation in the morning could hint at a possible influence of market opening times or other events early in the day, and further inspection over a longer period might shed light on this.

3. Outliers and Volatility

In the data presented, there are no noticeable outliers—instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the established pattern. The rates stayed within the narrow range between 0.00054 and 0.00055 throughout the day. This suggests a very low level of volatility in the exchange rate for this specific day, with a very minor increase observed in the morning before returning to the initial rate.

In conclusion, given the parameters and constraints, the exchange rate displayed high stability with a minute elevation in the morning. However, we need to remember that this analysis is based on a single day's data, and as such, might not fully capture the regularity or stand-alone incidents over a longer timeframe.

2024-04-24

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The dataset provided shows the exchange rates for the Syrian Pound (SYP) over a single day, from 2024-04-24 00:00:02 until 2024-04-24 23:55:02. The trend observed in this dataset is interesting and important to note. The SYP exchange rate remains mostly stable at 0.00054 for the majority of the day until around 07:40:03 when it slightly increases to 0.00055 and stabilizes at this rate for remainder of the day. Hence, it can be concluded that there is only a slight increase in the exchange rate during this period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In regards to seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, the biggest obstacle in identifying such patterns is that the provided data only represents a single day rather than a longer time-span. Seasonality trends are usually identified over weekly or monthly data, as they recur in a regular and predictable manner throughout a year. In this particular dataset, no clear recurring hourly patterns can be determined due to the stability of the exchange rate.

Outliers Analysis

An outlier in a dataset is a value that is significantly higher or lower than most of the other values. In this dataset, there don't appear to be any significant outliers. Our method of identifying an outlier is to look for values that diverge significantly from the mean. Given that all the exchange rate values fall between 0.00054 and 0.00055, no outliers can be determined. This close range of numbers and the absence of drastic fluctuations suggest a stable economic period for SYP on the day represented.

2024-04-23

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Based on the provided data, I have conducted a comprehensive analysis focusing on the overall trend, seasonality, and outliers in the exchange rates (SYP) over the timestamps given.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon observing the SYP exchange rate across the specified timestamps, the overall trend seems substantially stable. The rate begins at 0.00055 at the start timestamp (2024-04-23 00:00:02) and remains the same until the timestamp 2024-04-23 02:35:02, where there is a slight decrease to 0.00054. However, it quickly returns to 0.00055. After the timestamp 2024-04-23 09:05:02, the rate again drops to 0.00054 and remains the same until the end of the given timestamps. Overall, there are no significant increases or decreases, hence the trend can be considered stable with only a minor fluctuation.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

Given the absence of drastic fluctuations in the exchange rate throughout the data, it is challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. There are no observable periods where there is a systematic and predictable change in the exchange rate that would simplify forecasting. Therefore, the dataset appears to display no considerable seasonality or recurring patterns within the given timeframe.

3. Noting any Outliers in the Exchange Rates

In the scope of this dataset, there don't appear to be any instances of outliers, or "odd" data points that deviate dramatically from the others. This is because the exchange rate predominantly remains the same with only a minor fluctuation two times (at 2024-04-23 02:35:02 and at 2024-04-23 09:05:02). The change in these instances is very minimal, reducing from 0.00055 to 0.00054, and doesn’t represent a significant deviation from the trend. As such, these instances can be considered as part of the overall dataset pattern rather than being outliers.

However, it's crucial to remember that financial data can be affected by a myriad of factors - including market trends, geopolitical events, and economic indicators - that are not accounted for in this analysis. Therefore, this analysis provides an overview based on the provided dataset and does not predict future trends or elucidate the reasons behind the observed pattern.

2024-04-22

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon analyzing the provided data, the SYR exchange rate is significantly stable over the reported timestamp. The exchange rate is consistently around 0.00055. This implies that the currency's value has maintained a stable trend throughout the analyzed timeframe. There is no identifiable increasing or decreasing pattern in the given time series data.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

As for seasonality and recurring patterns, it's not possible to detect any with the data provided. Given the SYR exchange rate data over the presented duration, no cyclical or repeating patterns can be observed. The exchange rates remain mainly consistent across different times. This implies that there are no specific periods where the exchange rate consistently rises or falls, which is typical in a seasonal pattern.

Outliers Identification

Regarding outliers, it is observed that there two instances where the SYR exchange rates slightly decrease to 0.00054, specifically at timestamps '2024-04-22 13:30:03' and '2024-04-22 13:35:03', and in the period between '2024-04-22 20:05:03' and '2024-04-22 20:20:03'. Other than a couple of instances of slight variation, the data points don't exhibit significant deviation from the main trend. The existence of these minor outliers might suggest minor fluctuations in the financial market at specific periods, yet they don't significantly alter the overall stable trend of the SYR exchange rates in the provided dataset.

Please note that while this analysis provides a clear overview of the trend, recurring patterns, and outliers in the data, it does not take into account external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

2024-04-21

Summary of Last Week

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Upon viewing the data, it appears that we have three distinct periods with different exchange rate ranges. The SYP exchange rates maintain a consistent value of 0.0001 from the period of 2024-03-22 to 2024-04-09. Around 2024-04-10 there was a slight increase in the exchange rates where the rates have changed to around 0.00011 and remained stable at this value until 2024-04-12. However, from 2024-04-15 onwards, there is a significant increase in the exchange rates where the rates have climbed to and maintained at approximately 0.00055. Considering these observations, we can ascertain that the trend of exchange rates generally starts off at a stable point, experiences a small rise, and subsequently a big jump.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it is hard to clearly identify any due to the nature of the data provided. There is no discernible weekly or monthly pattern as most of the day's rate remain unchanged. It would suggest that the SYP exchange rates are possibly influenced by certain events or factors that aren't consistent enough to form a pattern. However, we can note an underlying trend, which consists of a relatively stable rate, followed by a slight increase, and ultimately significant spike which characterizes the overall data.

Detecting Outliers

Looking at the values, there does not appear to be any significant outliers within each defined period. Each defined period displays an exchange rate value that is consistent without any drastic deviations that may be defined as outliers. For example, the rates remain stable at 0.0001, 0.00011, and 0.00055 respectively for each period. It is interesting to note that the jump from 0.00011 to 0.00055 could be considered an outlier in the grand scheme of the entire data series as this is a significant leap compared to the previous changes we've observed within their respective periods.

2024-04-20

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the provided dataset, it is observed that the exchange rate value of SYP stands constant at 0.00055 at different timestamps over a period, thus indicating a completely stable exchange rate.

2. Identifying any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the constant exchange rate data, we cannot observe any seasonality or recurring patterns. Usually, seasonality or recurring patterns are identified if the exchange rate changes frequently over time, be it at specific times of the day or certain days of the week. In this case, the exchange rate remains constant throughout, therefore, there's no seasonality or recurring pattern to be noted.

3. Noting any Outliers

Just like the seasonality, the concept of outliers becomes irrelevant when the exchange rate over a given time period is constant. An outlier is a data point that differs significantly from other observations. Since all observations in this provided dataset are the same, we cannot designate any rate as an outlier.

In conclusion, the exchange rate of SYP has been extremely stable and static over the recorded period. There has been no moment of significant increase or decrease, and also no observation of any noticeable fluctuations that could suggest seasonality or the presence of outliers. This kind of exchange rate behavior might be due to a strict monetary policy or a fixed exchange rate regimen.